COVID-19: An alternate perspective in uncharted waters

6 April 2020

It is said, “If you can stay positive in a negative situation, you win.” The population of the World is 7.6+billion. Therein, the population of South and South East Asia is 2.5+billion or nearly 33%.
South Asia - 8 Nations, 1.94+billion people (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). South East Asia - 11 Nations, 0.66+billion people (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Vietnam).
At end December 2019, the first case of what is now known as COVID-19 was reported in China. On January 13, the first case outside China was reported in Thailand, even before many cases were reported in Japan or South Korea. The first case in Sri Lanka was reported on January 27, 2020. The WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on March 11, 2020. Fear, trepidation, ignorance or who is fooling whom?

On April 3, 2020, globally the COVID-19 reported cases reached over 1,000,000 and the reported deaths were over 51,000. Comparatively in all of South and South East Asia, the total reported cases of COVID-19 is less than 18,000 (under 1.8% of the global figure) and less than 500 deaths (under 1% of the global figure). This is over 11 weeks since the first case in Thailand and over nine weeks since the first case in Sri Lanka.

Government decisions and actions may well have contributed to keeping the local number of COVID-19 deaths to four (with under 160 cases reported). The restriction/suspension of International passenger travel for a month or as needed, closure of schools until Second Term/end April and no public events/gatherings permitted, are favourable.
As for COVID-19, the rapidly escalating numbers in the World have heightened the fear. Though in reality, not only in Sri Lanka but considering even all of South and South East Asia, the COVID-19 reported deaths are less than 500 as of April 3, 2020. Eight of the 19 countries in the Region are reporting Zero (0) deaths, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Nepal, Maldives etc. This begs the question - Is it as grave or real threat to Sri Lanka? This should be looked at carefully, as it seems we are away from the path of the storm or death by COVID-19.

The figures presented/analysed, especially with regard to the COVID-19 reported deaths, may shed more light as to if this is as a great threat to Sri Lanka or not. It may help halt/quell the fear psychosis that seems to be playing out with excessive actions that may have greater repercussions to the economy and its people/country at large. The decisions taken by the national leadership would have a profound impact as to how we come out of this with our sanity intact and with equitable opportunity.

Alternatively, continued clampdown/curfew or extended hibernation/near-paralysis mode may place the nation in a perilous situation at cliff’s edge. When the push comes to shove, the select/favoured may be bank rolled while many other businesses, including small and medium enterprises, may have to sell-out or succumb. Now an open invitation to bring in foreign funds without hindrance from the Government and protected under banking secrecy services, could well expose even the listed companies to predatory takeover owing to the prevailing and further anticipated depression in share prices. The fabric of Sri Lankan businesses and by extension the lives of the workers/people will be changed.

"Sri Lanka seems content to be near “freeze” mode or extended curfew (more grievous than lockdowns) for reasons best known to its leaders"

Though least prone/affected, Sri Lanka seem to be gripped in a fear psychosis as we are bombarded with months of alarming news/reported infections and deaths from China, Italy, Iran, Spain, Germany, France, UK, USA etc., and are kept primed over a purported impending COVID-19 disaster. It has brought the country to a near standstill. Some are cheering the extended excessive actions with unfounded trepidation or ignorance or a heady mix of both that feeds off each other?

Extended curfew would ensure an economic meltdown. Extreme measures by countries least prone/affected is detrimental. A large number of our breadwinners are daily wage earners, farmers or small entrepreneurs who desperately depend on the local economy being kept alive. The high suicide rates of the past are not comforting. A Rs.50 billion rescue plan means very little to them. Our inbuilt immune system (patients recover, not cured) and long days of bright sunshine/high temperature, are the most active deterrents that protect us. As an island nation, we have the added benefit of being more insulated and together with the International travel/flight suspension in place, are even less susceptible. Vigilance, quarantining measures and needed medical care for the few serious cases should continue as done thus far by the Medical profession and health-care workers.

Given the COVID-19, reported deaths being five in Sri Lanka and less than 500 in the whole of South and South East Asia, it may be time for the Government think tank to consider not to re-impose/extend the curfew once it lapses in a few days (commenced with three days of public holidays and then from March 20 curfew was imposed and extended till April 6). The Government could get the country out of its slumber and permit working adults (age 18 - 55) to resume work without delay - made aware to wash hands regularly, wear a face mask to minimise potential spread via droplets and maintain social distancing. If living with elderly parents, minimise close contact (do wear a face mask) or self-isolate.

The global population saw a net growth of over 60 million in 2019. Over 120 million births and over 60 million deaths (of which over 15 million were preventable cases). Even if the worst predictions for the USA, UK, EU, Iran, China, etc., regarding COVID-19 are true, it may double the number of pneumonia/flus-like deaths that occur annually.

Although over 173 or 90% of the world nations have reported at least one case of COVID-19, fewer than 70 nations report over six deaths. Nevertheless, with all the hype and fear created, even countries far removed from the East-West belt of the COVID-19’s path of destruction, are panic stricken and a few are taking over the top/sledgehammer action. This adds to crippling the World. Extreme/Knee-jerk reaction by the least affected/prone countries would gravely flatten the curve of local economic activity, rather than that of COVID-19.

A bulk of the “Top 40” COVID-19 affected nations do have large populations of 50+mn. Yes, they do wield tremendous economic and military power in the World. In spite of COVID-19 ravaging across the nations, many of them have kept going with a majority of the businesses/economic activity as best possible, including the benchmark stock exchanges. Sri Lanka seems content to be near “freeze” mode or extended curfew (more grievous than lockdowns) for reasons best known to its leaders. Are the extended curfews and economic clampdown more to arrest COVID-19 or is it to pacify the unfounded fears of the masses or is it for other real/perceived or hidden advantages - political or otherwise?

May sanity prevail sooner, rather than later, as the anxiety/stresses faced by the people owing to the continued imposition of curfew and the fallout economic meltdown could exceed the deaths of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka. Business closures and job losses in the tens of thousands will only be compounded if we continue with same. Let us not hang ourselves. Stop/quell the fear psychosis. Time to awake, rise and put the country back to work. Schools and Universities to reopen at end April. Then gradually we could open up to the World starting with travel to and from select neighbouring countries (with certain restrictions), possibly by May 2020.

With prudent/rational action, the country can be up and running in good order, then Sri Lanka may be in front of the preferred countries to visit once we are open to accept/welcome travellers from countries that have arrested COVID-19. There could be a “V shaped” rise in the global market for our export products if we are ready to solicit/capture and cater to those valuable orders. For all this, we must get the country working.

Hopefully this experience will humble us and also strengthen us in our resolve to overcome challenges.

Author’s note: This is an alternate perspective that could help quell the fear regarding COVID-19 and get the country working.