Covid-19 In Sri Lanka & South Asia: Facts, Figures, Fiction & Need For A Rational Policy Response
Photo credit | Facebook Ishara Kodikara
Dr. Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake
“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself” – FD Rooserveldt
19 is more a panic than a pandemic: It obscures from view the fact that far more people die as a result of illness related to poverty, malnutrition, and other forms of structural violence than anything else in South Asia, and indeed the rest of the world. In the context, the governments of the region would need rational and targeted policy responses to the Covid 19 challenge – rather than days of country-wide curfew without time for citizens to get adequate food supplies, and with very limited information provided.
Evidence and data is mounting that in tropical countries and regions of the world, Covid 19 has less traction than in temperate ones, where the crisis originated. The great majority of Corvid 19 global cases are found north of the tropic of cancer and in countries with cold, winter temperatures at this time. Sri Lanka is located South of the Tropic of Cancer and has a very hot climate currently. At the end of last week there were only 2,025 cases south of the tropic of cancer[1]. Case numbers in countries residing in the tropics or southern hemisphere make up just 1.29% of the global cases.
Chinese scientists have established that the virus’ longevity, strength, and spread is limited and affected by heat and humidity. Dr. Mohammad Sajadi, an associate professor of medicine at the University of Maryland, likewise argues that weather plays a role. He and his colleagues have found a striking temperature similarity among regions with sustained outbreaks of COVID-19: They all have outdoor temperatures between 5 and 11 degrees Celsius (41 and 52 Fahrenheit).
As this chart shows, there’s a big difference in how the virus behaves in tropical and temperate countries[2].
Nobel prize winning scientist Michael Levitt who predicted the ending of the Covid 19 outbreak in China, has affirmed that rather than lock downs what is needed is early detection. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister, Naftali Bennett, has clearly stated that the plan should be to protect the elderly and those with underlying health conditions as they are most vulnerable. 80 percent who get the Covid 19 get a mild or asymptomatic version in any case. In fact, it may be better for the virus to run its course like any other flu, particularly in hot and humid tropical countries where it is relatively mild and does not transmit with the speed that it does in temperate climates, suggesting mutation.
According to researchers at the University of Melbourne, who have mapped the immune responses from one of country’s first coronavirus patients, the bulk of those infected experience only mild symptoms, it is severe or critical in 20% of patients. The virus mortality rate is about 3.4%, the WHO has estimated.
Once 60-70 percent of the population have got the Corvid 19 flu and develop the anti-bodies, or what is called “herd immunity” at this time of hot weather when the disease is mild, this particular flu epidemic would be over in Sri Lanka. It is known that the virus does poorly in warm climates. Indeed, it may be better to get the mild stand of the COVID 19 in this hot season and for South Asian populations to develop anti-bodies at this time, rather than later when the temperature drops, in the cold season.
Hence, Sri Lanka responding like the US or Euro zone global north which is still in the cold, winter and flu season, with lock downs and incessant curfew is unwarranted. Lockdowns impact livelihoods with a knock on effect on family food security, poverty, malnutrition etc.
Of course, risk factors vary by person and country, age, gender and certainly ethnicity since it seems to be ethnic Chinese and east Asians (Korea, Japan) who were most affected initially, and Europeans subsequently, whether one is a smoker or not, and certainly climate and temperature also matter significantly as to who is at risk. It is clear that at least 2 stands of Covid 19 exist, very likely as bio-weapons.
What seems needed is date and evidence-based analysis and measured and balanced response in South Asia and Sri Lanka, taking into account regional and environmental factors at play in the spread of COVID-19, rather than county-wide lock downs that self-destruct national and regional economies. As of now in Sri Lanka, fewer than 90 persons are said to have tested positive for Corvid 19 and no deaths have been reported, but the government has imposed a country-wide curfew for 3 days on very short notice, causing hardship to a majority of poor households that buy food and other essentials on a daily basis. Confining people to their homes without sufficient food and information for days may be a recipe for social unrest.
Of course, better to err on the side of caution, especially as there is some evidence to suggest that COVID 19 was a bio-weapon and hybrid war attack on China and Asian Economies to trigger de-globalization. Yet, no other country in South Asia has imposed draconian country-wide 3-day curfews and shut down ports and airports effectively sealing the island in and seemingly self-destructing an already debt trapped economy. When curfew was announced the Lankan rupee depreciated significantly hitting 189 against the USD.
March 18, it was announced that no tourists would be entering the island for 2 weeks, delivering another blow to the tourism industry which was badly hit last year by mysterious suicide attacks on luxury hotels and churches claimed by foreign hands – so called the Islamic State (ISIL). Many people and those who work in the tourist, services, SMEs and gig economy are out of work and wages again, just when the economy was slowly recovering after the Easter Sunday suicide attacks, because of the Covid 19 over-reaction. In a sense, both the Easter attacks and the Covid 19 appear to be targeted attacks as much against the economy as the people.
Sadly, it seems the Colombo regime and its Health Minister, GMOA and related advisors, rather than formulating targeted policy, seem to be following the global media narrative that takes the global north as a baseline and succumbed to the so called Corvid -19 “pandemic” narrative, even though Sri Lanka is not a northern hemisphere country and not as vulnerable as wintering Europe or China.
Finally, what we need is balanced, measured, data, and evidence-based analysis and response from the Global South, especially to minimize its already tremendously negative impact on national economies and impoverished sectors of society, particularly citizens who rely on daily wages, tourism and service sectors, SMEs and the gig economy which has been most affected.
Indeed, as award winning African journalist Patrick Gathara writes speaking of indiscriminate travel bans and over-reactions in another region of the global south that has mercifully had less exposure and spread of the dreaded Corona, though usually vulnerable to mysterious viruses such as AIDS and Ebola viruses: “Africa does not need to burn down the house to defeat CORVID” or one might add, any other biological weapon.
