Pulling Back From The Brink: The Supreme Court Verdict & Its Implications
Prof. S W R de A Samarasinghe
Yesterday, November 13 evening, the third branch of government, the Judiciary in the form of the Supreme Court, dealt a blow for Sri Lanka’s fragile democracy when it issued a stay order on dissolving parliament effective until December 07. The Election Commission will suspend all action to hold parliamentary elections on January 5. In doing so the Supreme Court put the country first, as it should. In effect this allows the Speaker to recall parliament.
“Me First”
In sharp contrast, the president, who is the head of the executive branch, has been acting in the last two weeks with impunity, largely in his own self-interest. The legislative branch (parliament) has become an auction house where bribery reigns, cabinet office is available as a bribe for partisan behavior and self comes before country for very many MPs.
Government in limbo
The decision of the Supreme Court is not the end of the threat that has been posed to Sri Lanka’s democracy but may well be the beginning of a more perilous course. The absurd situation of two individuals claiming to be prime minister remains unresolved. The Supreme Court will deliver its final verdict only on December 07th. The general administration of the country remains at least semi-paralyzed with no clear political leadership at the top.
Parliament
The Speaker has called for a meeting of party leaders for Wednesday, November 14th. One can be certain that the UNP, JVP, TNA and the other smaller parties will attend the meeting. But it is not clear if the SLFP and SLPP that now support Rajapaksa would attend. Even if they do they may not be keen for an immediate meeting of parliament because a vote in the House is almost certain to go against Rajapaksa making his claim to the position of prime minister untenable. Such an outcome will also make Srisena’s position very awkward because a week ago he publicly declared that he would not remain in his post for more than a couple of hours if Wickremesinghe were to return as PM.
Power struggle
All the Constituitonal battles are being fought not for the sake of constituitonal propriety but for power. From that perspective the key parties in the fight have seen their prospects change dramatically since Sirisena sacked Wickremesinghe on October 26.
In the first week Sirisena and Rajapaksa appeared to have overcome whatever objections, both local and foreign, voiced against the move. They were prepared to ignore those objections because they believed that large-scale bribery and offer of cabinet positions would induce enough MPs to crossover to assure a majority in parliament. The long-term plan was to have a government for another 12 plus months, hold the provincial council elections to consolidate power, and then go for a presidential election and parliamentary election. It appeared to be a near perfect recipe to establish a Rajapaksa political dynasty, a project that suffered a setback in 2015.
Plans go wrong
But it was soon apparent that even the best-laid plans in politics could go wrong. Rajapaksa was struggling to secure the support of 113 MPs. The first hint came when one of the crossovers, Wijedasa Rajapaksa, asserted that the president can call for a general election if the Vote-on-Account that the new government would present in parliament was defeated. Mahinda Rajapaksa also publicly stated that he would welcome a general election so that the people could decide.
Dissolution
The dissolution of parliament on Friday November 9 took the public by surprise. It is not clear whether Sirisena took the decision unilaterally or he did it in agreement with Rajapaksa. Either way it looked dubious to many. It was also not a part of the script that Sirisena and Rajapaksa had in mind when they embarked on this course of action on October 26.
Shifting public mood
