Lord Naseby’s Number Game – III
“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” ― Mark Twain Casualty figure 146,679 – Evidentiary basis :
On 08 Jan. 2011 the Catholic Diocese of Mannar presented a comprehensive Submission to the LLRC. In their submission, Bishop Rt. Rev. Dr. Rayappu Joseph, Rev. Fr. Victor Soosai and Rev. Fr. Xavier Croos, had focused , inter alia, on the Vanni carnage and the casualties. They have said :
Extrajudicial killings
“Based on eyewitness testimonies, we believe thousands of people would have been killed in the last five months of war between January – May 2009……….”. “Based on information from the Kachcheris of Mullativu and Killinochi about the population in Vanni in early October 2008 and number of people who came to government controlled areas after that, 146,679 people seem to be unaccounted for. According to the Kachcheri, the population in Vanni was 429,059 in early part of October 2008……..According to UN- OCHA update as of 10th July 2009, the total number of people who came out of the Vanni to government controlled areas after this is estimated to be 282,380. ”Govt. tactics:
The government had used all possible tactics, including coercion, cajolery and manipulation, to get UN agencies and foreign missions in Sri Lanka to cut down on the war casualty figures. All of them had, willy nilly, complied with the government bidding and cooperated with the regime. How could the Rajapaksa regime, which had the gall and temerity to intimidate UN and such other agencies, tolerate the nasty noise from the Tamil clergy? After all, they are not members of the privileged Buddhist clergy!
Bishop faced threats
Pursuant to LLRC submission and seeking clarification on the 146,679 unaccounted persons, the Rev. Bishop Rayappu Joseph was interrogated by the TID-CID police. It was an attempt to intimidate him and the clergy into silence. Also, the Rev. Bishop faced threats of harm and harassment from Minister Mervyn Silva, the JHU party and the Sinhala media which called him a ‘Tiger’. During this time, Rajapaksas’ hitmen from the security sector were engaged in silencing voices of dissent with ghoulish relish.
Dr. Senewirante raised concerns
Dr. Brian Senewiratne of Australia, the doughty champion of the oppressed Tamils and other underdogs, had commended the Rev. Bishop’s LLRC presentation as “ the only document ever published that gives the actual number of people who areunaccounted for after the war – a staggering 146,679.” In the same vein, Dr. Senewiratne had raised concerns about the safety of the Rev. Bishop Rayappu and other priests. (Colombo Telegraph, 11 June 2012 – “Why Bishop Joseph andhis Roman Catholic Clergy have been targeted”)
In the face of menacing threats to the Rev. Bishop, the Christian Solidarity Movement (CSM) comprising mostly of priests and nuns from the majority community had raised their voice in solidarity with the Rev. Bishop and defended his concerns for the Tamil people. Indeed, their courage is exemplary ! ( Sunday Leader , 29 Dec. 2012 – “ Christian Organization Condemns Grilling Of Bishop “ )
Corroborative factors
In response to the UNSG’s (PoE) Report, which was critical of the UN’s acts of omission and commission during the war, Ban Ki-moon appointed an ‘Internal Review Panel on UN Actions in Sri Lanka’. The Review Panel’s Report dated Nov. 2012 impliedly validates the claim that 146,679 people had remained missing and unaccounted for.
“46. ……..And, determination of the numbers of people in the Wanni was central to all of this humanitarian action. A Wanni local government official testified to the LLRC that during the final stages there had been 360,000 IDPs in her district alone. Others who submitted testimony to the Commission quoted estimates of local Government authorities that placed the total population number in October 2008 at 429,000. Yet national Government authorities in Colombo insisted that there were no more than about 70,000 people. The UN believed there were up to 350,000 civilians, ……………. and used an assistance-planning figure of 200,000. The reception and registration of almost 280,000 people in IDP internment camps when they left the Wanni is an indication of the scale of inaccuracy in the national Government’s figures. The Government’s denial of the real numbers buttressed arguments against increasing humanitarian convoys and was later used to rebut reports of high civilian casualties…..”(Vide – Para. 46 at Page 18 of the Review Panel’s Report)
Thus, the UN believed there were up to 350,000 civilians and yet used an assistance-planning figure of 200,000. What happened to the remaining 150,000 ? .
