What is more conspicuous in his ‘scenario analysis’ is his China bashing. The main predicament of ‘drifting’ he identifies as the following.
by Laksiri Fernando-
“But it is also time to step back and examine the practice of scenario analysis and invest in addressing its weaknesses. We need to bolster its scientific credibility by adding rigour to its procedures.” – Joseph Alcamo
( March 27, 2017, Sidney, Sri Lanka Guardian) A scenario analysis undoubtedly can be used effectively to visualize the future under different possible conditions and make recommendations for policy decisions. In that sense, it is a planning tool. One of the main exponents of this method, Peter Schwartz, called it “The Art of the Long View” (1991). However, the scientific or the objective aspects of such an exercise also should not be denied. The practice shows that this method is more effective in planning business or other organizations, than in overall economic planning of a country. Application of this method for countries, unless in selected sectors (i.e. energy, environment, roads, education, housing etc.) is problematic as many variables, both national and international, must be carefully taken into account. Otherwise, the use of the method may appear superficial.