Nepal: With Prachanda, India Must Seize the Moment
India must engage Nepali leaders politically, not through agencies or diplomats, which should be the exception. The mistrust between New Delhi and transformed Maoists will slowly evaporate as both have learnt lessons
by Ashok K Mehta
( August 3, 2016, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) About the providential come-back today, after a gap of seven years of Prachanda as the 24th Prime Minister of Nepal in 26 years, most Nepalese will say: “Lord Pashupatinath ordained it”. Some will add: “and India”. After all, New Delhi has been instrumental in all the historic changes in Nepal: Restoration of active monarchy (1950); revival of democracy (1990) and initiation of the ongoing peace process in 2005. Ironically, it is Indian diplomats who cite the dismissal of Prime Minister Prachanda in May 2009 and subsequent prevention of a Maoist-led Government till Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai was assisted in forming one in 2011 as their political victory. Now the same but transformed though weakened Prachanda (82 seats) has broken the Left alliance Government with Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) led by KP Oli and for the first time initiated a Left (Maoist)-Right coalition with Nepali Congress (NC) (207 seats).
This experiment was to have started earlier in May this year but was aborted due to differences among the Maoists and the decisive role played by China for the first time in Nepal’s domestic politics in rescuing the Left alliance Government. This time around, though, realising the dye had been cast, Chinese Ambassador Wu Chintai has assured Prachanda of full support in order that the 10 agreements signed by Oli with China will be honoured. Seizing the initiative, Prachanda told the Ambassador that the deals were infact conceived by him.
It seems there aren’t too many gentlemen politicians in the Constituent Assembly as powersharing agreements have apparently been dishonoured or as generally claimed, there were none between Sushil Koirala and Oli; Oli and Prachanda; and now Prachanda and SB Deuba. The latter is unlikely to lose much sleep as he has the gentleman’s agreement in writing. Oli has turned out to be the most anti-India Prime Minister — like Prachanda in 2008 he was attempting to subvert the system — though to his credit in Nepali eyes, he upheld Nepal’s strategic autonomy. In fact, he defied India by refusing to do its bidding at the time over anomalies in the Constitution and became a folklore hero bearing the burden of the unpopular blockade. UML is the best organised grassroots party with good leadership, abundant funds, people’s support and most importantly, China’s full backing. UML is down, not out. Still, it is expected to do well in the parliamentary elections early 2018.
The new Great Game is about altering the political arithmetic in Nepal’s next elections: Ensuring NC remains the single-largest party, downsising UML from no two to no three position, elevating Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) to no two slot by helping them rebuild; and unifying the Madhesis. Not easy! India’s efforts in the peace process are about mainstreaming the Maoists and democratisation of Nepal. The mistrust between New Delhi and transformed Maoists will slowly evaporate as both have learnt their lessons. Prachanda quotes his post-conflict guru, the legendary GP Koirala who told him: “when you get lost in the jungle you return to where you started the journey”. In relation to rediscovering India he says: “I have told the Chinese, you have your place, but India is different. Our relations with India are ancient and historic”. In earlier times he would say: “we need China to balance India and look beyond it”. Prachanda has turned into a pragmatic and a realist politician.
Prachanda has pledged to implement the Constitution, address residual constitutional demands of Madhesis and marginalised communities in phases, step up post-earthquake reconstruction, bolster the economy and hold local body, municipal and district committee elections, all in nine months. Addressing the war excesses in the Truth and Reconciliation Commission is a priority issue. Any constitutional amendment will require UML cooperation for a two-third vote in the House or pending the passage of amendments to after the next elections. The new electoral system encourages a hung Parliament. Of the 300 seats in the lower House, 165 are through first past the post and 75 seats via proportional representation with the remaining 60 seats by nomination. This will likely result in politically unstable coalitions, continuing the trend of the last two decades.
The Army will be wary of the Prachanda-led Government if the defence portfolio is kept by the Maoists. The last political upheaval occurred under Prachanda’s watch when after he sacked Army Chief, General Rukmangad Katwal, President RB Yadav reinstated him. The present Army Chief, Gen Rajendra Chhetri has said the Army is taking stock of the situation and will act in national interest. Chinese President Xi Jinping was to visit Nepal in October provided there was political stability in the country. Prachanda may still be able to swing the visit. China has moved beyond merely its main concern of the 30,000 Tibetans in Nepal to meddling in the country’s internal politics. Nepal has favoured China by awarding several Government-to-Government projects.
The new Government is a great opportunity for India to repair both Government-to-Government and people-to-people relations following the economic blockade and allegations that India was behind the destabilisation of the Oli Government not once but twice. In Nepal, all is not fair in love and politics. India-Nepal relations are at their lowest ebb, this after an NC-led Government under Prime Minister Sushil Koirala took charge in 2013 after a resounding electoral victory. Prime Minister Modi’s visit in mid-2014 won over Nepal as never before. All was forgiven and forgotten as the one billion dollar development package took off. Koirala developed a personal rapport with Modi over a monthly Mann ki Baat over the telephone. In one of his conversations, Koirala questioned the prudence of nominating disputed Lipulekh claimed by Nepal as a trading point between India and China. This and other misunderstandings led for the first time to a NC Prime Minister not being invited on a bilateral visit to India. The rest is history.
India should engage Nepali leaders politically, not through agencies or diplomats which should be the exception. President Bidya Devi Bhandari should re-schedule her postponed official visit after Prime Minister Prachanda first renews political bonding with New Delhi. Prachanda Maoists can re-write their failed boast: ‘Aru lai heryo patak patak; hami lai heryo yas patak’ (You have watched others time and again, watch us this time). Oli’s defeat and Messers Prachanda and Deuba’s comeback are India’s victory for now.
Ashok K Mehta is a retired Lt General of the Indian Army. He writes extensively on defence matters and anchors Defence Watch on Doordarshan, India’s premier TV channel. 