Ghosts from the Past
Photograph courtesy Business Today
TISARANEE GUNASEKARA- on 06/19/2016
Goya (The title of the 43rd etching of Los Caprichos)
Post-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka is being haunted by the ghost of the Rajapaksa past and the spectre of a Rajapaksa future.
The 19th Amendment was a major democratic achievement. It restored presidential term limits, reduced presidential powers and reinstated independent commissions. The commissions will face their first acid test over the appointment of the next governor of the Central Bank. If the tainted incumbent is reappointed, the ability and willingness of independent commissions to stem the partisan excesses of politicians will be cast into grave doubt.
The 19th Amendment also barred two-term presidents from contesting the presidency again. This automatically disqualifies former president Mahinda Rajapaksa from contesting the 2020 presidential election. The only way he can remedy the situation is via another constitutional amendment. Such a change would require a parliament in which Mr. Rajapaksa commands a two-thirds majority and a President weakened to the point of invertebrateness. Neither condition is likely to come about under normal democratic circumstances.
So the Rajapaksas are faced with a problem of Himalayan proportions. How can they use the next presidential election to regain the power they lost in the last one? The Family is unlikely to trust its future to an outsider, however servile that person might be now. The only way out is for another Rajapaksa to contest in 2020. Namal Rajapaksa is too young and Basil Rajapaksa is caught in too many legal tangles.
There is only one choice: Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.
Gotabhaya Rajapaksa must not only contest; he must contest to win. Which means he cannot contest from the third party the likes of Wimal Weerawansa are raring to create; he must contest from the SLFP.
This is the context in which Minister John Seneviratne’s proposal to make Gotabhaya Rajapaksa a deputy leader of the SLFP must be considered.
Minister Seneviratne is one of those SLFPers who contested the 2015 parliamentary election as a member of the Mahinda Sulanga (Mahinda Wind) and jumped ship, post-defeat. Unlike the other senior John in the cabinet, John Amaratunga, Mr. Seneviratne is not given to dropping bricks and drivel every time he opens his mouth. If he says something controversial, it would be by intent rather than accident.
This is also not the first time Minister Senevirtane talked about bringing Gotabhaya Rajapaksa into active politics. In April, 2016, he stated that “senior SLFPers are of the opinion that Gotabhaya should be given a key post in the party.”[i]
Minister Seneviratne reportedly discussed the matter with Gotabhaya Rajapaksa for over two hours[ii]. Days later, Mr. Rajapaksa himself made a statement, claiming that, “People living in Sri Lanka and outside the country have asked me to come forward to contest the next presidential election.”[iii] He didn’t say he would; he didn’t say he wouldn’t. But reading between the lines the message was clear: Gotabhaya is willing; willing to contest, become the president and return Sri Lanka to its right and proper fate of Rajapaksa rule.
