Canada election: will anti-Harper sentiment be enough to bring progressives to power?
Polling suggests Stephen Harper could lose to Justin Trudeau, but as Canadians prepare to vote on 19 October, recent election upsets in the UK and Israel have taught observers to take polls with a grain of salt


The candidates: from left, Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party of Canada; Thomas ‘Tom’ Mulcair, the New Democratic Party; and Conservative leader Stephen Harper during a debate in September. Photograph: Bloomberg/via Getty Images

Highway 401 runs east, from the Toronto area toward the outer suburb of Ajax. Along the roadside the trees have turned with the season, to red, orange and gold.
Greater Toronto covers across an area almost the size of Delaware. It contains almost a sixth of Canada’s population, and a fifth of its immigrants. Its sprawling suburbs were the site of some of the Conservative party’s biggest victories – and the Liberals’ biggest defeats – in Canada’s last general election, when current prime minister Stephen Harper won outright majority for the Conservatives.