International political order in transitional phase

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin arrives to meet foreign leaders during the 7th BRICS summit in Ufa on July 9, 2015. AFP

July 15, 2015, 8:02 pm

The ‘BRICS Nations’ have just concluded a summit meeting of its leaders in Russia along with a coming together of the Russia and China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the same country and it is developments relating to these regional political and economic groupings that ought to be watched closely. In fact, the increasing emergence of these groupings is a marked feature of the new international political and economic order that is beginning to take shape.

In gradual degrees, as it were, the international political and economic order has been undergoing considerable change over the past couple of decades and the broad contours of this new system are now beginning to reveal themselves with increasing clarity. To be sure, the Asia-Pacific region has emerged as the world’s ‘engine of growth’ but there is a lot more that does not meet the eye immediately in this new system.

‘The world system’ is in a transitional phase and it is quite obvious that Asia would lead from the front in ushering this new order. The crumbling of the Cold War in the early nineties of the century past led to the establishment of a multipolar world political system with the US remaining as a global hegemon, but the indications are that the West, led by the US, would now need to contend with scores of emerging political, economic and military powers, in particularly Asia, along with assertive regional political and economic blocs, to prolong its dominance.

The BRICS are just one of these new formations that are challenging the economic and political standing of the West. Lesser known but equally productive economic formations are: IBSA – India, Brazil and South Africa and CIVETS: Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa.

The emergence of these formations is of multiple significance. They are the proof that the global South does not lack resourceful economic players who can effectively tap the opportunities for growth thrown-up by economic globalization, although the latter order of things by no means opens up an even playing field for most developing countries. The other point to be noted is that these new dynamic economic powers are representative of the totality of regions which formerly constituted the Third World. A case in point are the BRICS, which represent the continents of Asia, Africa and Latin America. The BRICS are foremost among the world’s dominant economic powers.

Besides, the following points about the economic performance of these powers and groupings, as mentioned in UNDP’s Human Development Report 2013, need to be noted:

* By 2050, Brazil, China and India combined are projected to account for 40 percent of world output in purchasing power parity terms.

* Between 1980 and 2010, developing countries have increased their share of world merchandise trade from 25 percent to 47 percent and their share of world output from 33 percent to 45 percent.

Thus, we have on our hands a substantially changing power relationship between the global South and the global North; the one time developing world or the Third World and the developed countries or the former First World. Accordingly, it would be apt to characterize this changing equation as a transitional phase in a shift of global power from the North to the South.

The South is coming to its own in the world power system and for the first time in centuries, the South is in a commanding position in relation to its former colonizers. The big question is, would these ‘emerging economies’ of the South, use their considerable weight to increasingly refashion the world economic system to meet the legitimate needs of the lesser economic players of the South or the Least Developed Countries? In other words, could the mandate of groupings, such as the Non-aligned Movement and the "Group of ‘77’, be fulfilled to at least a degree?

The above tasks call for a sense of purpose and clarity of vision on the part of the progressive sections of the South and it is left to be seen whether the key powers of the South would be equal to these challenges. Hopefully, the collective interests of the South would prove to be of greater importance than the individual interests of states and regional groupings.

Meanwhile, emerging trends in the South in particular establish the increasing significance of regional trade and investment for the general economic growth of countries. For instance, India is said to be considering linking with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, which, in turn, would probably integrate with China’s new Silk Route initiative. The latter envisages linking China, in economic terms, with Central and South East Asia and even farther. A prime consideration in these initiatives are the oil and gas reserves in Central Asia in particular. The economic growth of the ‘emerging economies’ comes at a price and increasing energy consumption is an aspect of the latter.

However, it is all too evident that all is not well with this ‘Brave New World’. It is no coincidence that several of the most violent identity conflicts are occurring currently in some of these ‘growth centres’ of the globe. The continuing Middle East conflict and the endemic armed strife in countries such as Syria and Iraq are cases in point. Identity conflicts, such as those pertaining to religion and culture, are proof that population groups in these growth zones are not filled with a minimum sense of security. Identity formation is accelerated when communities do not enjoy the required degree of social stability. Accordingly, economic growth is not necessarily synonymous with social peace.

The above considerations need to be reflected on by the global South. ‘Soft Power’ is as important as ‘Hard Power’ but what constitutes ‘Soft Power’ needs to be sorted out. A country’s cultural heritage is an important element, for example, in ‘Soft Power’ but it is equally important to demonstrate that a country is also an exemplar of equity and sustainable development. The latter are chief among the attributes of ‘Soft Power’ and they are also essentials for fostering of world peace.