Russia-China ties and their influence on the worldpolitical order

March 11, 2015, 7:45 pm 

China and Russia had occasion to act in accord on the world stage, to a degree, after the emergence of China as a foremost communist power in the late forties of the last century, but this tie turned frosty in the Cold War decades over mainly ideological issues. The rift was of such proportions that the US found it possible, in the early seventies, to ‘break the ice’ with China and to mend its relations with the latter on the basis of the perception that the then USSR’s influence and power had to be contained. This was a strategic tie-up of sorts that lasted over the rest of the Cold War years.

The fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have met on at least 10 occasions over the last two years speaks volumes for the vibrant and growing nature of Russia-China relations. Currently, these major powers seem to be needing each other as never before.

The strengthening of these ties comes at a time when Russia’s relations with the West are notably strained and global political divisions have deepened to a degree over developments in the Ukraine. The increasing coming together of Russia and China over global political and economic issues signifies that Russia and China would comprise a strong pole in the present multipolar world political system. Another dominant actor in the current international political order is, of course, the US, with the EU constituting a power bloc of considerable weight which, more or less, makes common cause with the US on global political issues. Together, the US and the EU, form a considerable section of the ‘West’.

‘The practical cooperation between China and Russia is based on mutual need, it seeks win-win results and has enormous internal impetus and room for expansion’, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quoted as saying recently. He had also stated that the countries would ‘continue to carry out strategic coordination and cooperation to maintain international peace and security.’

China and Russia had occasion to act in accord on the world stage, to a degree, after the emergence of China as a foremost communist power in the late forties of the last century, but this tie turned frosty in the Cold War decades over mainly ideological issues. The rift was of such proportions that the US found it possible, in the early seventies, to ‘break the ice’ with China and to mend its relations with the latter on the basis of the perception that the then USSR’s influence and power had to be contained. This was a strategic tie-up of sorts that lasted over the rest of the Cold War years.

Principal Cold War considerations no longer exist, but the factors which are contributing towards keeping the US and China engaged currently are mainly economic in nature. The need to invest in each other’s countries and the considerable and growing markets in both countries for goods and services, basically, sustain US-China relations at present. There is a degree of economic interdependence that dictates the need for continued interaction between the states. But it was Chinese leader Deng Xiaou Ping who made the pioneering moves, way back in the late seventies, to broadbase China's relations with the West and put in motion the process of economic interaction with that hemisphere which was seen as essential for China’s wellbeing.

The foregoing, among other things, should remind the observer of the changing nature of countries’ foreign policy parameters or directions. A state’s foreign policy is based on what is seen as its national interest and the latter cannot be expected to be static. It changes periodically, and what was perceived as its most vital needs in the latter forties were not identical with China’s foremost national requirements in the late seventies. Economic need came to take precedence over ideology, in what was seen as the national interest in the latter years, and China needed to refashion its foreign policy accordingly.

However, the economic accent in China's national interest is contnuing to drive its foreign policy trajectory and since both, the US and Russia, are important for it, from this viewpoint, it would need to conduct unruffled ties with both countries in the days ahead. China is dependent to a degree on Russia for requirements,such as, oil, gas and other raw material and this factor will be a shaping influence on China's ties with Russia.

But international political considerations are no less important. China's pledge to sustain 'strategic coordination' with Russia would stand the latter in good stead in the current Ukrainian crisis. The pressure is on Russia to refrain from intervening in the Ukraine and China's diplomatic and moral support for it, would be most welcome for Russia. Together, Russia and China would be an effective counterweight to the West in the UN Security Council in particular on issues relating to the Ukraine.

The degree to which such a coming together is important in global forums could be seen in the deliberations on Syria in the UNSC. On Syria, Russia and China have voted against Western initiatives which have been seen by them as inappropriate and such voting conduct establishes the international political clout commanded by the two powers. Chinese economic cooperation would also prove vital for Russia in the face of mounting Western economic sanctions on the Ukrainian issue.

The increasing economic strength of China should oblige countries, big and small, to work in cooperation with it. China is a foremost initiator of infrastructure development globally and it would be shortsighted on the part of countries of the developing world in particular to allow extraneous considerations to negatively impact their ties with China. Besides, China's booming consumer markets should be seen by countries as an incentive to proliferate their exports to China. Thus, relations with China need to be based by states on mutual need and support. From this viewpoint, Sri Lanka is doing right by contnuing to conduct cordial ties with China. For the developing world, a policy of Non-alignment would best serve their interests.

However, national sovereignty would continue to be a vital consideration for powers such as Russia and China. With the need for increasing power and energy resources gripping the world's South in particular, the protection of national borders and the maintenance of control over territorial holdings that are seen as containing strategic material, such as oil and gas, would be important for the major powers of the South. This is one of the reasons why tensions erupt now and then in the South and East China Seas and adjacent regions. These factors also account, partly, for Russia's concern over what is happening on its eastern borders. However, confrontational attitudes over these questions on the part of international actors would only lead to global insecurity. International dialogue needs to be increasingly resorted to in oder to resolve these questions.