#India2014: Modi – MR Duality And “Hindutva” Holding Forte
Kusal Perera
An attempt made by me over two weeks ago to predict the outcome of Indian elections 2014 as seen from Colombo, went awry. My tinkering with past election results and Indian media polls, only allowed for a hung parliament, dependent on a substantial gain by AIADMK in Tamil Nadu (TN) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Seemandhra. Mamata Banerjee was not ticked off as a likely ally of Modi on what was there on media. I was somewhat close to Jeyalalithaa’s expectations of AIADMK being able to dictate terms in a coalition government, although my calculations did not allow Jeyalalitha a landslide, historical victory in TN. In just one day’s counting, Modi more than BJP, sent all calculations haywire.
Called a “carnival of democracy” this 2014 Indian elections on it’s very outcome, is politically incredible to the extent, it makes representative democracy a practical farce. Going by numbers, BJP won 282 seats on its own and technically has more than the 273 needed to form a stable majority government. BJP is the major and dominant partner in the the NDA, an alliance since 1998 that then had 14 affiliates and formed a government that lasted 01 year. It had 16 affiliates including DMK when it won in 1999 again and stayed in power till 2004. The DMK then moved out and coalesced with the Indian National Congress (INC) led UPA to be in government. Now in 2014 May, the NDA has 29 political parties that won 336 seats. Out of this list of 29 alliance parties, only 11 parties have won the extra 54 seats that top up BJP’s landslide victory. Shiv Sena (18) and TDP (16) being the larger of the small contributors.
Previous such historic victory was in 1984 December when Rajiv Gandhi leading the INC won an unbelievable 414 seats in the Lok Sabha. He then had the fortune of riding the sympathy wave of his mother’s assassination by Sikh security personnel. Added was the fact that the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty remained a living factor in Indian national politics during that time. Read More
India Makes Modi, First Without Equals
S. Sivathasan
My Predictions in Colombo Telegraph
April 12, My Prediction for Lok Sabha. NDA 305, BJP 280
May 16, Actual. NDA 335, BJP 282
April 12, My Prediction. UPA 105, Congress 90
May 16, Actual. UPA Congress 44
Earliest query on January 2nd 2014,
Any reason why BJP cannot go to 280 or more?
Any reason why Congress cannot come to 100 or below?
February 4, My Prediction. AAP, Single Digit.
My prediction of a precise and firm 280 for BJP was perhaps the closest of all to the actual. While Chanakya’s was the best at 340 for NDA, mine was among the few above 300. As early as on January 2nd, I suggested obliquely in CT that BJP can go to 280 or more and that Congress can decline to 100 or less.
In many of my articles in CT I alluded to the subterranean surge that Modi wave and then the storm was causing. To me more real was the iceberg itself rather than the tip that many a poll had sighted.
Now we have to await the outcome for five years, which too can be foreseen. As for now just one observation. In Modi is a synthesis of Patel’s grit, Nehru’s balance and Bose’s charisma. Behind him stands the idealism and super confidence of Vivekananda. Moving him is the thought of Bharathi though he might not have studied the words. “Bharath is ancient and great. Let us sing in praise, we are without peer”. Read More
