Extremists Will Incite Trouble After Geneva: JVP Best Bet In The Provincial Elections
Prof. Kumar David
The mood a propos Western and Southern Provincial elections is not disinterest; it is mild indecision and gentle bemusement. I am not referring to anti-government folks only, though most of my associates belong in this category. Though UPFA supporters are lackadaisical now, this may change; Op-Eds in newspapers say preparations are afoot to bus thousands into Colombo to unleash frenzied xenophobia if the UNHRC enacts a regime-hostile resolution. This incitement is probably a prelude to presidential and parliamentary elections. A soda-bottle outburst is likely, depending on spending on advertising (top firms have been hired), food, goodies and transport. There is enough graft and drug loot in the kitty to bankroll it. If sanctions bite later in the year, things will first become ugly, then pain will turn people against the government. Whether the government accepts the Geneva resolution and strangles it in implementation, or rejects it outright, Lanka is headed for a year of tumult and turmoil.
Even pro-government folk now talk anti-government. Die hard anti-UNP leftists, paradoxically, are concerned that Fonseka is doing damage to the UNP-I will explain anon. Hard-leftists face a choice between Mano Ganesan, the NSSP-USP comedy, and the JVP. The UPFA will win in the South, and in the Western Province win by a reduced margin. The votes polled by parties that secured at least one seat in 2009 are as follows:
Western Province (April 2009)
UPFA: 1.5 million votes (65%) and 66 seats (+2 bonus)
UNP: 690,000 votes (30%) and 30 seats
JVP: 56,000 votes (2.4%) and 3 seats
SLMC: 49,000 votes (2.15) and 2 seats
DUA: 12,000 votes (0.5%) and 1 seat
Registered voters 3.8 million; valid votes 2.3 million.
Southern Province (October 2009)
UPFA: 800, 000 votes (68%) and 36 seats (+2 bonus)
UNP: 290,000 votes (25%) and 14 seats
JVP: 72,000 votes (6%) and 3 seats
Registered voters 1.8 million; valid votes 1.2 million.
Three trends must be watched: (a) How much, if at all, will be the government's share of the vote decline? (B) How will Fonseka fare vis-à-vis the UNP? (C) How will the JVP fare after its leadership face lift? Anything startling in these indicators is a signal of a national shift that will affect parliamentary and presidential elections.
Prof. Kumar David
