Lok Sabha 2014 – Guesstimate To Estimate
S. Sivathasan
First Light
On 2nd of January I thought aloud in my article about Congress under-performing at less than 100 seats in 2014 election. The expectation aboutModi and BJP was of their doing exceptionally well at 280 or more. Since December 8, such were the emerging prospects. The latter have now approached 280 or more. The former has hit 100 or less.
Much water has flowed since the state election to dispel the haze. Now with the benefit of first light, guesstimates which seemed heretical are no longer so. Mass gatherings of unprecedented magnitude attracted by Modi, clear messages conveyed thereat, morale and optimism on the ascendant, their ever widening ripple effect on voter consciousness, groundswell seen nationally and rational assessments made by the more discerning are all accessible. Realistic estimates are overtaking wishful speculation. But only orders of magnitude as of now.
Synthetic Cloud
Entering the clear sky now is a synthetic cloud called Third Front. It is being thrust into the limelight by the Communist Party of India (CPI) and CPI M – (Marxist). What is their genesis and how much weight do they exert? CPI founded in September 1924, is in dithering mode for 90 years and now upon a waning plane. In a near century what credentials have they mustered and what credibility do they command? In a quarter century Communist China had become a reality and has grown exponentially since 1949. In India the party bifurcated into two in 1964, in the background of the ideological struggle of that time. It may be recalled that at that time the CP of Ceylon too broke up into the Soviet Wing under Pieter Keuneman and Chinese wing went with Shanmugathasan.
The Indian CPI (M) bifurcated again into CPI ML- (Marxist Leninist). In 1968 there was a further bifurcation into CPI Maoist or Naxalites. Naxal violence claimed between 1989 and 2013 over 12,000 lives of civilians, security forces and insurgents. They had nothing else worth showing. In 25 years from 1924, the Chinese Communist Party captured power, created history and lifted their country as the second most powerful nation. What have the communists done for India?
