Conflicts Persist And The Economy Languishes: Why 2014 Will Be A Gloomy Year
By Kumar David -December 29, 2013 |
Prof Kumar David
If your want me to fib you could ask me to affirm that, at last, in 2014 the world and Lanka will turn the corner and happier days will return. If I did, come December, you will sue me for misleading you into an unfortunate financial or matrimonial embarkation. No sir, you had better look after your pocketbook and your urges; I want no part of it.
One ominous expectation and dismal prophecy is that Mahinda Rajapakse, if he calls presidential or parliamentary elections in 2014, is likely to win. The only contrary possibility is if a strong common opposition nominee surfaces on the “single-issue” ticket. There were two people who could have pulled this off, Reverend Sobitha and Chandrika. The former has declined; the latter has studiously avoided the spotlight and lost lustre and credibility . . . but . . .? If we get stuck with Rajapakse for a third term, it is bad news. The multitude of abuses for which this government, more than any other, is notorious, will not diminish. Add-in anxiety that the regime is complicit in anti-Muslim hate-crimes by association with its extremist flange, and the decoction turns lethal. Specific concerns aside, regular changes of government are indispensable for accountability. Indeed this is why term limits are built into all civilised polities – China’s Communist Party included.
There is risk that this country will go the Mugabe-Gaddafi-Suharto way. It took an uprising to oust the latter two, but 90-year old rogue Mugabe is likely to die in office before he is driven out. In these and similar cases, there were uprisings and repression was the tool by which dictators hung on to power. In Lanka, there is widespread flouting of election law and rigging, but it is also true that the regime has a strong base. The perpetual reward for war victory is permanency of tenure and carte-blanch to indulge in misconduct.
The opposition in Thailand is barmy! It wants premier and parliament removed and the country run by a self-appointed council, sans elections, for many years. The reason is candidly admitted: “We can’t win!” Lanka needs to see the back of Rajapakse, but it must be achieved by legitimate and constitutional means. (If the regime itself subverts democracy beyond redemption, then that’s a different ball-game and justifies a robust response). Till then, there’s hard work to do.
