Apprehensions Of Indian Elections
By Kumar David -December 13, 2013
Prof Kumar David
The consensus here, as in India, is that Congress will be defeated in the general elections due in about April next year, that the BJP will win, and that Nardendra Modi will be prime minister. The last named is a dreaded prospect because of his reputation as a Hindu extremist and the Chief Minister who preferred not to stop the slaughter of thousands of Muslims in Gujarat. There are several in Lanka who are apprehensive of the possibility of a BJP-Modi Administration; Sinhalese and the Rajapakse Government, Tamils and the TNA, and of course Muslims. Interestingly it seems to me it is the local Muslims, unlike their Indian counterparts perhaps, who are least upset.
State elections, especially the outcome in Delhi and Rajasthan, feature the writing on the wall in big bold letters. For India, the consequences will be more far reaching than just the defeat of Congress and the end of Manhohan Singh’s career; it may terminate the Sonia monarchy and see Rahul’s futile foray into politics drowned in misery. I will say no more of the view from across the Palk Strait; Indian readers will have better judgements.
The Rajapakse Government is hopeful, wrongly in my judgement, that replacement of Congress by the BJP and Singh by Modi will ease pressure on Colombo. This is imprudent Sinhalese mass perception; those on the inside of government, especially Foreign Minister and President, know that Delhi under Congress was a reliable friend during the war without whose discreet but vital assistance the LTTE would have been more difficult to sink. Sink! No, I am referring to more than armament shipments, but also to logistics and diplomatic support. Colombo’s hope may be that in the period ahead, Delhi under Modi will not join in tightening the international noose around Colombo’s neck in the human rights scene. The opposite may be the case if Jayalalitha sits in a BJP-lead cabinet; even otherwise it is unlikely that investment hungry, market besotted Modi will defy the West for the sake of . . . for the sake of what? Hence the Lankan regime’s uncertainty and apprehension is understandable and for sure it is shifting its bets around with much agitation.
The Tamils and the TNA are no doubt also shifting their bets in confusion. If the BJP wins, their hopes are pinned on Jayalalitha and her AIADMK. She may have a cabinet seat, perhaps one that can influence policy orientation to Lanka. Even otherwise, if the BJP fails to secure an absolute majority, the AIADMK may be an indispensable partner in a coalition. Northern Province Chief Minister Wigneswaran should kick himself for his stupidity shooting his mouth off in September criticising Jayalalitha and Tamil Nadu for “sticking their fingers into Lankan Tamil concerns”. The TNA should give him a dressing down and arrange classes to explain that politics, unlike a judicial posting, is multifaceted and complex. Don’t get me wrong, I wish Vigneswaran and his Administration the best, but early blunders must be firmly nipped in the bud.Read More
