Seizing The Time…..

By Tisaranee Gunasekara -October 10, 2013 |

“The Bird of Time has but a little way, To flay – and Lo! the Bird is on the Wing” - Omar Khayyam (Rubaiyat)

The struggle for devolution in Sri Lanka can be equated with a medley relay. A combination of factors, internal and external, is needed to ensure the success of each of its phases. The pro-devolutionary moderates succeeded in winning the last phase in this contestation thanks to two conjunctural – and thus transitory – factors: the Colombo Commonwealth and Indian elections.

The participation of the Indian Prime Minister in the Colombo Commonwealth is of extreme importance to the Rajapaksas. Delhi obviously used this handle to ensure that the Siblings did not postpone the Northern PC election via a legal shenanigan; or turn the election into another ‘Humanitarian Operation’. The Rajapaksas would have also realised that had the Commonwealth Observers came up with a totally negative report about the manner in which the Northern election was conducted, even the ever-obliging Kamalesh Sharma would not have been able to save their Colombo-bash.

The Manmohan Singh government will complete its term on 31^st May 2014. National elections will take place thereafter. This timetable has enhanced the political clout of Tamil Nadu, tremendously. If national elections had not been impending, the Congress administration could have afforded to ignore the Tamil Nadu factor. With national elections round the corner and with the BJP invigorated by the leadership of the execrable but popular Narendra Modi, the Congress cannot afford to alienate the Tamil Nadu voters, too much. A largely free and fair election resulting in a TNA-led provincial council was the basic minimum requirement to satisfy the moderate majority in Tamil Nadu (and isolate the pro-Tiger hardliners).

Delhi has achieved that, for the Congress, for the Tamils and for Sri Lanka.

The window of opportunity created by this fortuitous combination of Colombo Commonwealth and Indian elections is strictly time-bound. The Rajapaksas will not make any new anti-devolutionary moves until the Colombo Commonwealth is over. But Delhi will not be able to prise out more concessions from the Siblings, as is evident from the zero-outcome of the Salman Khurshid visit. President Rajapaksa did not promise to implement the 13^th Amendment – let alone go beyond it – as he regularly used to do during the war. Instead he recycled his classic time-buying exercise – the parliamentary select committee.Read More