SRI LANKA: Storm signals across the Palk Bay
By Col R. Hariharan
Some of the recent policy decisions of Sri Lanka affecting Indian commercial interests are sending disturbing signals that have the potential to affect Indo-Sri Lanka relations. Will these storm signals add to the political stress created by the non implementation of the much maligned 13thAmendment to the Constitution?
Sri Lanka watchers are probably already debating this question. (For an analysis of the rationale behind 13A stress see South Asia Analysis Group Sri Lanka Update No: 225 December 7, 2012 - “Sri Lanka: Consolidation of Rajapaksa Inc ” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1083 )
India-Sri Lanka relations, despite occasional hiccups have remained cordial all along because a sense of pragmatism among the national leadership in both countries prevailed over petty agendas and emotional hang-ups. This has given the relationship a unique character in South Asia. However, this had not precluded stress building up in times of national crisis in either country. The Eelam War IV (2006-09) was a recent example of when the two countries successfully managed it, though Indian government’s credibility within India had suffered because of it. (For a detailed analysis of this narrative see South Asia Analysis Group Paper No: 5294 dated Nov 13, 2012 “Adding substance to SAARC: India-Sri Lanka experience” athttp://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1055).
If the present policy trend is left unchecked, it could affect Sri Lanka’s credibility among the Indian non-political segment particularly the trading community. The loser would be Sri Lanka, as it needs India’s whole-hearted economic support to keep a burgeoning economic down slide within manageable proportion in the coming months. Of course, this is in addition to the need for India’s political support to handle when the ghosts of Sri Lanka’s aberrations of governance catch up at the UN Human Rights Council session in April 2013.
The first issue relates to the Sampur thermal power project hanging fire since December 2006 when the governments of India and Sri Lanka, and National Thermal Power Corp (NTPC) of India and Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) signed a memorandum of understanding to construct a coal-fired 500 Mega Watt power plant in Eastern Province. The time-plot of the disastrous progress which has not yet left its paper trail is given below. It shows how casually such a huge project has been handled:
