Subterranean dimensions of Eastern Province PC horse-trading
Leaders and parties are agents of history
It has been said that man makes his own history but that he does it not under circumstances of his own choosing but conditions given and inherited from the past. The parties and leaders now jostling and positioning themselves in the Eastern Province Provincial Council horse-trade are superficially playing for influence, power and posts. True they think they also have an eye on the future. Deeper however, unknown even to themselves, they are setting patterns of community, class and power-block relationships that will define the political constellation of Lanka for the next period. The next period I have in mind is up to the next parliamentary and presidential elections.
The permutations look like this. Handsome Rauf Hakeem of the SLMC is hotly pursued by Mahinda Rajapaksa and Rajavarothayam Sampanthan both ardently seeking his favours. A spanner in the works by DEW Gunasekara of the Dead Left, which did not win a single seat, is the proposal for an all-party provincial government. All this may seem crude power play, but the way it turns out will influence national politics for the next period. I am writing now, before the outcome is known, and I want to keep it that way because it allows me to better explore the inner implications of the options.
First however, we need a few statistics. The demographics of the Eastern Province are: 40% Muslim, 35% Tamil and 25% Sinhalese. The outcome of the elections: UPFA 12 seats (plus two bonus), the ITAK 11, and the SLMC 7 seats. The UNP managed just 4 seats and Wimal Weerawansa’s NFF grabbed one seat, adding up to a total of 37. Of the UPFA elected 12, seven are Muslims, and one UNPer is a Muslim, with the SLMC’s seven this makes a total of 15 Muslims; but crucially they lie scattered and spattered across three political entities. This is significant because the Muslims have long been snivelling that they have no political
clout in the country, not even in the Eastern Province which has a Muslim plurality.
What men think they are doing
The simple options are for Hakeem and the SLMC to bestow their favours on the ITAK or the UPFA. If the former, the SLMC will hold the provincial Chief Ministership and the broader reigns of power for the first two years, and the ITAK for the next two. This would to some extent address the concerns of the Muslims since this is the first Chief Ministership the community has held and it will give Muslim leaders the opportunity to formulate and implement a programme for the improvement of their much depressed community.
The second option is to stick with the government. If Hakeem stays with Rajapaksa he will protect his cabinet portfolio and make those SLMC parliamentarians who are in it for perks and money, legitimate or illegitimate, happy. However, if he bows before Rajapaksa and rejects the ITAK offer he will be remembered as the leader who threw away an opportunity for asserting Muslim identity and implementing a Muslim led programme. Either way it’s an agonising decision and will likely involve a split among his elected councillors now, or down the road.
The logistics of the all-party option are a nightmare. Who will hold the trumps and for how long? Will the SLMC, ITAK and UPFA (probably a Sinhalese) hold the Chief Ministership and the reigns of power for one-and-one-third years each? Sounds perfectly crazy. Will this all-party circus be able to evolve some circuitous formula whereby it can actually arrive at a working arrangement? I don’t see how and it will so dilute Muslim influence that, de facto, it will be a betrayal of the Muslim masses who have at last raised their heads, albeit through three parties.
The concomitant issue is that this all-party formula is actually a three-party formula since it will and is probably intended to isolate and exclude the UNP. This may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the UNP helping it emerge as the principal oppositional power in the Eastern Province.
What men are actually doing Read more..
Leaders and parties are agents of history
It has been said that man makes his own history but that he does it not under circumstances of his own choosing but conditions given and inherited from the past. The parties and leaders now jostling and positioning themselves in the Eastern Province Provincial Council horse-trade are superficially playing for influence, power and posts. True they think they also have an eye on the future. Deeper however, unknown even to themselves, they are setting patterns of community, class and power-block relationships that will define the political constellation of Lanka for the next period. The next period I have in mind is up to the next parliamentary and presidential elections. The permutations look like this. Handsome Rauf Hakeem of the SLMC is hotly pursued by Mahinda Rajapaksa and Rajavarothayam Sampanthan both ardently seeking his favours. A spanner in the works by DEW Gunasekara of the Dead Left, which did not win a single seat, is the proposal for an all-party provincial government. All this may seem crude power play, but the way it turns out will influence national politics for the next period. I am writing now, before the outcome is known, and I want to keep it that way because it allows me to better explore the inner implications of the options.
First however, we need a few statistics. The demographics of the Eastern Province are: 40% Muslim, 35% Tamil and 25% Sinhalese. The outcome of the elections: UPFA 12 seats (plus two bonus), the ITAK 11, and the SLMC 7 seats. The UNP managed just 4 seats and Wimal Weerawansa’s NFF grabbed one seat, adding up to a total of 37. Of the UPFA elected 12, seven are Muslims, and one UNPer is a Muslim, with the SLMC’s seven this makes a total of 15 Muslims; but crucially they lie scattered and spattered across three political entities. This is significant because the Muslims have long been snivelling that they have no political
clout in the country, not even in the Eastern Province which has a Muslim plurality.What men think they are doing
The simple options are for Hakeem and the SLMC to bestow their favours on the ITAK or the UPFA. If the former, the SLMC will hold the provincial Chief Ministership and the broader reigns of power for the first two years, and the ITAK for the next two. This would to some extent address the concerns of the Muslims since this is the first Chief Ministership the community has held and it will give Muslim leaders the opportunity to formulate and implement a programme for the improvement of their much depressed community.
The second option is to stick with the government. If Hakeem stays with Rajapaksa he will protect his cabinet portfolio and make those SLMC parliamentarians who are in it for perks and money, legitimate or illegitimate, happy. However, if he bows before Rajapaksa and rejects the ITAK offer he will be remembered as the leader who threw away an opportunity for asserting Muslim identity and implementing a Muslim led programme. Either way it’s an agonising decision and will likely involve a split among his elected councillors now, or down the road.
The logistics of the all-party option are a nightmare. Who will hold the trumps and for how long? Will the SLMC, ITAK and UPFA (probably a Sinhalese) hold the Chief Ministership and the reigns of power for one-and-one-third years each? Sounds perfectly crazy. Will this all-party circus be able to evolve some circuitous formula whereby it can actually arrive at a working arrangement? I don’t see how and it will so dilute Muslim influence that, de facto, it will be a betrayal of the Muslim masses who have at last raised their heads, albeit through three parties.
The concomitant issue is that this all-party formula is actually a three-party formula since it will and is probably intended to isolate and exclude the UNP. This may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the UNP helping it emerge as the principal oppositional power in the Eastern Province.
What men are actually doing Read more..
