Sri Lanka: Post-mortem of the provincial elections
Guest Column by Dr. Kumar David 

The Rajapakse government called early elections to three provincial councils (PC) as a tactical build up to early parliamentary elections (possibly after another round of PC elections) and early presidential elections. If president and parliament serve out their full term, elections are not due till early-mid 2016. The alleged reason for early elections is that the government wants to go to the polls before its falling popularity declines too much, and early PC elections which the government hopes to win will be useful psychological groundwork. Elections to the North Central Province (NCP) bordering the Northern and Eastern provinces, Sabaragamuwa in the south-west, both in the Sinhalese heartland, and Eastern provinces were held on 8 September. Were the government’s hopes and expectations fulfilled? Yes and no, and some deep complications have also surfaced; this piece will briefly discuss these issues. 

Eastern Province (EP) 

The EP is where the government’s hopes went most awry and has become the seat of deep complications. The demographics of the EP are as follows in round numbers: 40% Muslim, 35% Tamil and 25% Sinhalese and a further significant matter is that Batticaloa, one of the three districts in the EP (the other two are Trincomalee and Amparai also called Digamadulla), is very Tamil, say 70%. The outcome of the election was as follows. The UPFA, the government alliance, obtained 32% of the vote and 14 seats, the TNA 31% and 11 seats, while the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) won 21% and 7 seats. The UNP polled just 12% securing 4 seats and the Sinhala extremist National Freedom Front of cabinet minister Wimal Weerawansa with 1.5% grabbed a seat, adding up to a total of 37 in the Council. Seats are not allocated on a strictly proportional basis since the party with the largest vote gets two bonus seats without which the UPFA seat tally would have been only 12.  

There is a little more background information to add before making any analytical remarks. The SLMC is led by Rauf Hakeem who is Minister of Justice in Rajapakse’s cabinet and the SLMC, like the NFF, is a constituent of the government at the Centre; it having been agreed that parties that wished to could go it alone in the provinces. Secondly, of the UPFA elected 12, a full seven are Muslims, and one of the UNP’s four is a Muslim, making a total of 15 with the SLMC’s seven, but crucially they lie scattered and spattered across three political entities. This is very significant because the Muslims have long been wailing that they have no political clout in the country, not even in the EP which has a clear Muslim plurality. I will return to the horse-trading now in full swing about who the SLMC will join, UPFA or TNA, in forming a provincial administration after a digression. 

Perhaps the most significant outcome of the EP-PC election on a national scale is the total erasure of Pilleyan’s TMVP party from the political landscape. Like Douglas in the North before him Pilleyan as a significant Tamil leader with pro Rajapakse leanings is history. Except for Pilleyan himself, not one single Tamil candidate aligned to Pilleyan was elected on the UPFA list which he led in Batticaloa. The others were all Muslims and Pilleyan too would not have succeeded unless UPFA Muslim voters granted him a preferential vote. (Sri Lanka employs a party plus candidate preferential voting system which can only be described as downright stupid and injurious to the public good). The TNA secured 51% (presumably all Tamil) and the UPFA 31% (maybe half Tamil and half Muslim) and the SLMC 12% of the total poll in Batticaloa District.  

The ex-LTTE commando boss Pilleyan (Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan) who crossed over to the government side has been wiped out in Tamil majority Batticaloa and the TNA has emerged as the voice of the Tamil people. This is a sign of what portends for the Northern Province (NP) provincial elections if they are ever held; it is clear as daylight that the TNA will score a handsome victory in any Tamil majority region. I must pause to mention that I use the term TNA (Tamil National Alliance) throughout this piece though it was only its principal constituent theIllangai Thamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), formerly called the Federal Party in English, that run in the EP in a deplorable show of Tamil internecine sectarianism. The acronym TNA is better known internationally.

This has enormous political significance since there is no one that reads the political tealeaves as carefully as the Rajapakses and the significance of this demonstration of Tamil allegiance with the TNA is that the President will not hold the NP-PC elections unless he is dragged to it, kicking and screaming, by the international community. It is not simply that the UPFA will be roundly defeated, but more important that regimes with an authoritarian drift cannot stand any form of power dissent. A PC in the country that will dare to say boo to the President’s goose is a danger that no autocrat accustomed to absolute power will countenance. This despite the absurdity that the PC system was brought to Lanka under the 13-th Constitutional Amendment to grant a degree of autonomy to the Tamils, but now every other province except the Tamil province has a PC!  

Rauf Hakeem and his ardent pursuers                                         Full Story>>>