Can Sobitha Pull Off Victory Where Fonseka Flunked?
By Kumar David -August 26, 2012
Prof. Kumar David
A significant political development that has gained momentum this month is that a substantial and growing number of political organizations and individuals have begun to promote the candidacy of Ven. Maduluwewa Sobitha Thero, Chief Incumbent of the Kotte Naga Vihara, as a presidential challenger to Mahinda Rajapaksa. This was implicit (there was no explicit reference to a candidacy) at a meeting of the National Movement for Social Justice at the Colombo Public Library Hall on Wednesday 15 August. The meeting was well attended (the hall was full but not overflowing). General Fonseka and his stalwarts, UNP types mainly but not only from the among the dissidents, and several leftists like yours faithfully more out of curiosity than pledge, and a large contingent of Buddhist clergy made up the audience. The podium was reserved for religious big-wigs including Buddhist high priests, two bishops (Chickera and Gomis) and one body each as token reps of the Hindu and Islamic creeds. No denying it was an impressive launch with upside potential.
The sixty-four thousand question is can he do it? Can Sobitha pull off victory where Fonseka flunked? Given the drought of credible alternatives to the incumbent whose popularity remains high, is Sobitha the best option, and more important, does he look like a winner? The second question first. I think Sobitha is a winner if two conditions can be met:-
a) He presents himself as a clear-cut single-issue candidate.
b) The UNP can be persuaded to drop counter bids and throw its weight behind him.
Both are doable and in the interests of several persons and parties, the UNP included, so my guess is that Sobitha’s candidature has better than even odds of materialising. However, I need to emphasise that unless both conditions are met, he will lose. A hundred other things can happen on the political and economic front between now and the next elections, so frankly all bets are off at this early stage. However a crucial point is that unless the Thero announces his candidature early, preferably now and as a single-issue aspirant, he will lose vital time.
