Presidential Election & The President’s Spoiler Power
Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan
Sri Lanka’s major political parties have been making arrangements and strategic moves with the forthcoming presidential election in mind. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe‘s highly publicized visit to the North last month was one of those strategic moves. Tamil votes are and should be a part of the United National Party’s electoral calculations. Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna leader Mahinda Rajapaksa has been meeting with Muslim groups, knowing very well that Muslim votes played a significant role in his defeat in 2015. Hence, we are already in an election season. Characteristically, the new budget will also reflect this reality.
Meanwhile, President Maithripala Sirisena faces a different set of problems. Despite his public pronouncement in the early days of the presidency that he will be a one-term president, he is keen to contest for a second term. It is with this objective in mind that he made Mahinda Rajapaksa the prime minister in October 2018. The project did not succeed, and Sri Lanka returned to the status quo within two months. In October, the decision to unseat Wickremesinghe was influenced by the fact that UNP votes will not be available for him next time.
This dilemma has forced Sirisena to look for votes in other parties. The natural option is the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna. Hence, as confirmed by media reports, the president has been luring the SLPP for an alliance with him as the presidential candidate. The SLPP and Mahinda Rajapaksa seem to be reciprocating with meetings and consultation.
Is an SLFP – SLPP alliance with Sirisena as the presidential candidate possible? The answer to this question is, extremely unlikely. However, why is SLPP engaging Sirisena on this issue? It is because of the president’s “spoiler power.”
Presumably, all major stakeholders in this issue are operating based on the numbers generated by the 2018 local government election. In this election, Mahinda Rajapaksa headed SLPP gained 44. 69 percent of the total votes and Sirisena led parties, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the United People’s Freedom Alliance garnered 13. 38 percent of the total national votes.
There is no evidence to suggest that Rajapaksa faction has gained any new votes in the last one year. Instead, it might have lost some votes due to the way in which the SLPP and its allies behaved during the 2018 political crisis. Undoubtedly, the crisis reenergized the UNP. Theoretically, some of the UNP defectors could have returned to the party in October 2018.
On the other hand, the UNP could also count on Tamil votes from the North-East, which went to the Tamil parties in the local government election. One cannot suggest that these votes will be enough for the UNP to win the presidential election. The UNP’s chances heavily depend on how it performs in the Sinhala majority areas.
Of significance is the fact that without an alliance with the SLFP (and President Sirisena), the SLPP is staring at about 45 percent votes, five percent short of the 50 percent (plus one vote) required to win the election. Therefore, the SLPP is undoubtedly interested in the SLFP votes and perhaps an alliance with the president. The question is, would the party sacrifice the “trophy” itself for the five percent votes? If one goes by the electoral strength of these parties, the bulk of the gains should go to the SLPP in an alliance between the SLPP and SLFP. Hence, the SLPP is unlikely to accept Sirisena as the common candidate.
