Indian Ocean Crisis Management Through Oceanography
Damsarie Ranasinghe
Importance and relevance of oceans keep increasing every day due to land based resource scarcity, growing population rate and reduction of land mass due to rise in sea levels. Despite technological advances, 95% of the ocean remains unexplored. With more than 60% of the world’s population living within 100 km from the coast, and with 13 out of 15 largest cities predicted to be located near oceans by the turn of the millennium, – academics, professionals, and scientists have turned their central attention towards understanding oceans. The enormous ocean resources, slightly discovered and mostly hidden, is of immeasurable value in the future given the excess utilization of land-based resources.
Over the past few decades, techniques and theories have been developed as an attempt to understand oceans a little better. Yet, the potential and scope of ocean studies remain wide. With increased understanding and findings, study of oceans has become more specific and categorized, one of which is Operational Oceanography.
In layman terms oceanography is the study of marine or ocean sciences. Operational Oceanography, a derivative of this vast subject area, aims to provide sustained and accurate marine measures, analyses, predictions and assessments which are used to advance marine policies and activities including national security and marine environment. The European Component of the Global Ocean Observing System (EuroGOOS) defines OO as the activity of systematic and long-term routine measurements of the seas, oceans and atmosphere, and their rapid interpretation and dissemination.
As such, OO is capable of producing accurate now-casts, hind-casts, re-analyses and future forecasts of the ocean including state of the living resources, covering global-to-coastal marine environments and ecosystems through rapid transmission of observational data. These observational data, generated by means of mathematical forecasting models can foretell early warnings of adverse weather changes, electronic charts, prime routes for ships, ocean currents and even the productivity. Being a fairly new concept, OO has managed to provide accurate and valuable real time data on marine and coastal environment, marine resources, marine resources, marine safety and climate and seasonal forecasting.
In order to deliver successful and accurate forecasts, there must be enough ocean observations available with super computer facilities and models to decipher and disseminate the data. As a result of such, the OO facilities were limited and applied by financially and technically competent nations, such as the USA. In other developing nations, most OOs are run either by national weather centres or by coordinated partnerships between government and various research organisations.
The US Navy has pioneered in OO having incorporated them in its military strategies since Cold war. In Italy, OO has been used to define its marine strategy directive related to ecosystem sub-regions. As a result, sea surface temperature seasonal data, chlorophyll climatology data and trends along with wind coastal upwelling indices are obtained which helps determine the environmental impact at a given location and time. The EU project ‘Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System: Toward Environmental Predictions’(MFSTEP) composed of a real time observing system with satellite and in-situ elements, a numerical ocean forecasting system at the basin scale, biochemical models for algal biomass forecasting and a product dissemination system. These products were used to determine oil spill drift and dispersion, sediment transport and fish stock assessments which determine the operational value for the stakeholders.
Indian Ocean Region over the past half a decade has faced many unpredicted natural disasters in the form of earthquakes, cyclones and flooding resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands of individuals. Given the proximity of South Asian and South East Asian states to the Indian Ocean, a better understanding of the ocean currents, salinity, wind and sea level could have reduced the damage caused. Lack of effective OO centres resulted in the enhanced damage to both property and human lives. However, some efforts have been taken by East and South East Asia to incorporate OO.
In 2005, the first Ocean Operational system was implemented in the Indonesian archipelago with the collaboration of Indonesia and European Institutes. The system provides information for sustainable use of marine resources, improved management of the sea with high business impact for both public and commercial operators. It further capitalizes on their capabilities in fisheries, environmental policies and human activities in the marine environment. The Chinese Global Operational Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS) includes both ocean circulation and ocean wave models providing 3D predictions on marine temperature, salinity, currents, sea levels and ocean waves.
