‘Heads you win, tails I lose ...’
By N. Sathiya Moorthy-December 10, 2017, 9:52 pm
Chennai
Coming ahead of the nation-wide local government (LG) elections in February, the self-imposed deadline for the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between President Maithiripala Sirisena’s SLFP faction and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s UNP by year-end should be a dampener for all stakeholders, even those outside of the government. Between the two developments will fall the third year anniversary of their ‘yahapalayana’ regime, which has lost all of its shine and sheen, beyond repair.
As things stand, the two parties seem wanting to take the suicidal course of going it alone at the LG polls but are unsure of reviving the MoU. Being equally unsure of accepting the rival Mahinda Rajapaksa faction’s terms for re-union of the SLFP-UPFA, the Sirisena faction has all the choices and no choices at the same time. Though the UNP partner-rival in comparison seems to be having all the choices at the same time, truth be acknowledged, it has nothing much of a choice, either, beyond the LG polls, if at all.
Should the alliance fall, the simple and simplistic calculation is for the UNP to retain the Muslim and Upcountry Tamil partners in the present government, try rope in the TNA, and split the Maithiri and Mahinda camps, jointly and severally. When the numbers are down, principles don’t matter. Ideas like ‘anti-defection law’ are hence never ever discussed in Sri Lanka. When continuance as ministers and parliamentarians is the issue, past and the future do not matter for individuals, either.
Opportunity & challenge
Not given to shooting off in the air all the time, unlike his SLFP rivals, UNP’s Ranil & Co can be expected to have calculated their next moves if the continuity of the current union, if not the subsequent stability of the government, is threatened. They can be excused if they overlooked the reality of the ongoing internal strife in the TNA, yes, but not the possibility of Mahinda’s continuing electoral dominance in the South.
It is both an opportunity and challenge for the UNP, especially if the two SLFP factions are destined to continue staying separately. Personally, Ranil can hope to become President and then scheme to win the subsequent parliamentary polls for the party, or at least a UNP-led alliance, only months later, in 2020. It is not without reasons and causes, either.
Truth be acknowledged, Sirisena cannot expect to win a second term – even if he were to forget his pre-poll vow of 2014-15, of not seeking a second term five year hence. Mahinda, and other Rajapaka brothers barring non-controversial and equally non-charismatic Chamal, cannot hope to contest, owing to legal and constitutional hurdles. The question of Mahinda’s son Namal stepping in does not arise, given his age, and lack of direct, politico-administrative responsibility at any level other than as an MP.
It is here, Mahinda’s New Year challenge of 2017 about toppling the incumbent Government, and Ranil’s counter-challenge to have the Rajapaksas behind bars before Vesak-2018, comes into play. The chances of Mahinda proving himself are slim just now. But without Mahinda around and active, the UNP cannot overnight discover another ‘demon’ for the voter to possibly cast away his increasing dissatisfaction with the Ranil Government.
Yet, on paper, this is also the only way that Ranil and the UNP could hope to win the twin-polls of 2020, to be able to stabilise. Otherwise, they, like their SLFP counterparts from these past years since the nineties, are buoyed by the idea of the nation continuing to vote the incumbent for a couple of terms before considering possible changes and the possibilities.
LG polls, crucial
By common reckoning and media indications, Rajapaksa still has an upper-hand in the LG polls. The Mahinda-centric Joint Opposition (JO) needs to win even more badly than the UNP, even leaving the Sirisena camp aside. The chances of any or many of the Rajapaksas being sent to prison ahead of the LG polls do not seem possible just now, but such a course, if at all, could only add to the ‘sympathy factor’, which too they are now counting on after Mahinda’s overwhelming image as the ‘terminator of LTTE terror’.
It is still possible that Mahinda had hoped to upstage the unity government circa 2017, and keep his vows for the year, counting on the possible timing of the already-delayed LG polls. With an LG poll-sweep just now, he can hope to ruffle the government camp more than any time over the past three years of its five-year tenancy.
On paper again, the UNP can hope to sweep the LG polls in the South, hoping against hope that the rival SLFP-UPFA-JO votes split vertically, and not in near-exclusive favour of Mahinda R. But with even a tie with the UNP, Mahinda loses his charm – and bargaining-power -- viz Sirisena MPs and all those ‘organisers’ of the ministerial (or, is it presidential?) faction at all levels.
Sirisena’s trump-card
It is here Sirisena may now be holding the trump-card of his life-time as President. The ‘Bond Scam probe’ report is a weapon that he can wield against the UNP, if and only if the commission holds party ministers of the time, personally responsible – and thus, ‘irresponsible’, to say the least. As PM who invented the persona, Ranil too cannot escape the political fallout of such responsibility, if fixed, on then Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran.
Going by habit of playing the hidden card up his sleeve after the other player had committed himself to the table, Sirisena can be expected to use the scam probe report the same way. But how far will the nation, Parliament and higher judiciary will permit him the comfort of playing politics with the probe report, too, remains to be seen. Forced by one and all to do what he might not want to do, Sirisena too may end up losing his political trump-card, forcing his MPs to think of their own electoral exigencies of the future, starting with the LG polls, now slated for February.
It is an un-envious situation for Sirisena, too. This time round, he has extended the term of the probe panel by a few weeks, beyond the 8 December deadline, to close by year-end. If the probe report indicts the Government, and he publishes it ahead of the LG polls, any electoral benefit of the same could accrue more to the Rajapaksa faction. If he holds back the report, claiming to study it still, then again, Team Rajapaksa would accuse him of colluding with the ‘corrupt’.
For all this, electoral impact on the UNP may be too early to judge until the contents are actually known, but can still be imagined, after all. That way, it is a ‘Heads you win, tails I lose’ situation for all three Sinhala majors, if one were to go beyond the electoral base and confer constitutional respectability and political possibilities at the hands of President Sirisena, and to a lesser extent, Prime Minister Ranil – with neither of any available to Mahinda R!
(The writer is Director, Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation, the multi-disciplinary Indian public-policy think-tank, headquartered in New Delhi. Email: sathiyam54@gmail.com)
