Historic Victory Assured For Hillary Clinton
By S. Sivathasan –August 19, 2016
S. Sivathasan
When Hillary lost the Primary in 2008, a fortune awaited her. The office of Secretary of State which came her way added to her political stature. Resulting therefrom was a four-year experience at top echelons. A further four years of preparation followed for the highest office. When the primaries for 2016 concluded by end July, her victory at the Presidential was for sure.
Hillary Wins Before Voting Starts
She had won even as the contest had commenced was a sharp comment. How? From 1992 to 2012, Democrats had won 18 states consecutively at 6 elections, securing in a row 242 electoral votes. To that may be added in November, 29 votes from Florida which voted Democrat thrice in 6 recent elections. Two of the latest were consecutive and this win takes the total to 271 electoral votes. To become President, 270 would suffice.
Unerring Knack of Florida and Ohio to Pick the Winner
Not to be discounted in 2016, is Ohio voting Democrat in 4 out of 6 elections since 1992. With this addition of 18 votes, the total reaches 289. There is a further spectacle. Florida and Ohio have a remarkable knack in voting for the winning candidate. Since 1976, Florida selected the winning side unerringly on 9 out of 10 occasions. Ohio’s record was 10 out of 10. Accurate discernment explains the consistent success of the past. In these two states the party gap is ever widening in favour of Hillary after nominations, with no sign of abatement. It is said as a truism that the winner of Florida becomes President. Same is said of Ohio. Hillary’s victory is therefore doubly sure.
As constant as the North Star is Winning Trajectory of Democrats
In the US Presidential election 2016, the degree of certainty in Hillary’s victory has stood constant as the North Star. Conversely, predictability of her opponent’s defeat has been equally unwavering. Both phenomena have gone apace from July 28, the day Democratic Convention concluded. A shattering effect on the Republican candidate is now countrywide. The process never took 20 months to reach this stage by mid-August 2016.
Victory Was Writ Large in the Stars
It commenced in January 2015, well ahead of the primary. Hillary had a head start with a popularity rating of 80%. Trump’s stood at 3%. A gap that started as a chasm narrowed to a hair crack by July 2016, the month of the conventions. Hardly anyone was flustered at the latter’s progress. Thereafter a picture of slide unfolded as foreseen and unsurprisingly. Why? To the discerning among the citizenry, Trump was never ‘Presidential Material’. The more percipient believed He will ‘talk his way out of the contest’. It has happened so and is continuing steadily on. Even the unprecedented step of withdrawing the mandate was considered by Republicans. Idea of changing the Republican horse midstream too was seriously entertained.
Republican Bubble Burst Against Democrats’ Bounce
In the days of Republican Convention in August 2016, Trump got the usual bounce which was prematurely trumpeted. In the week that followed, the Democratic Convention put paid to the seeming bubble that was. Outstanding speakers with impressive records captured the voter audience nationwide. Bernie Sanders who emerged from the primary as a great man and greater still at the Convention, helped weld the Democratic camp with his impassioned oratory. The millennial vote wafted instinctively into Hillary’s fold.
Mischelle Obama with an aura of her own as the nation’s First Lady delivered a speech that was gripping. It was as passionate as Bernie’s, drawing millions to the support of Hillary instantly. John Biden’s oratory, both forceful and persuasive had a strong impact on the elector’s mind. It was unmatched even by his own previous speeches. Coming as it did from the heart of the Establishment, it carried much conviction.
Bill Clinton, ever the most magnetic personality at elections, projected the Hillary that the nation had not fully known. Presented were her predilection for bold initiatives, relentless pursuit of change and tenacity for sustained engagement as pillars of her character. Empathy with students, responsive to the needs of the health seeking, employment for the young and equitable tax regime for all were among the salient transformative policies that Hillary was committed to as affirmed by Bill. They have resonated with the peoples’ mood.
