J.O. hell bent on a President-PM split
The Joint Opposition’s strategic objective is crystal clear
“Don’t be fooled by those fellows!”
by Kumar David-April 15, 2016, 3:49 pm
by Kumar David-April 15, 2016, 3:49 pm
They are what their deep driving desire is.
As their deep driving desire is so is their will.
As their will is so is their deed.
As their deed is so is their destiny.
(Adapted from the Upanishads)
One thing that you must grant the Joint Opposition (JO) is that it strategizes craftily and does its homework carefully. I intend to layout the JO’s central strategic objective at this time and make an assessment of its likelihood of success. But first I need to explain that, for the purposes of this piece, JO does not include the whole bunch of 30+ parliamentarians, some goofy and some crafty, arraigned around former president Rajapaksa, but only the decision making core. This includes an SLFP inner circle, and beyond the SLFP it draws upon the rhetoric and stealth of a ring led by loudmouth Weerawansa and deviant Gammanpila, two once-leftist parliamentarians and non-parliamentarian talented English language scribe, Dayan Jayatillaka (DJ).
The strategic plan of this JO thinking-head is clear from its actions and from a few, perhaps inadvertent, pronouncements. Was it Vasudeva who said a few weeks ago "Our line now is to create splits"? It needs no more brains than a mole to appreciate who he wants to split from whom! The darts in DJ’s essays are also well aimed at a mark: ‘President Sirisena! PM Ranil is taking you for a ride. Come back home, MR is waiting for you with open arms’, or words to that effect.
Here is my summary of how JO strategists assess the political conjuncture and how they intend to intervene on the basis of their assessment. Let me put myself in the shoes of a JO strategist and write in the first person. "Sirisena cannot be displaced from the presidency till he completes his term; that is some five more years. The government and PM are stable for so long as they retain a parliamentary majority; that is as long as the MS-RW axis withstands shipwreck; this too is 5+ years. We can’t wait that long, we need to move now". Next they judge the basics. "The economy is in trouble on several fronts; the most serious in so far as mass sentiment is concerned is high and rising prices. Secondly, the government’s credibility is at low ebb because not one big-time fraud, money laundering or murder charge has stuck, and not a single conviction of a former regime politico has been handed down by a court up to now".
The JO strategists are no fools, so they also make two projections. "These good times (for us) may not last. The economy may turn-up in Q4 2016 or in 2017. Prices cannot be brought down quickly but if Ranil manages to create 10,000 jobs this year and 50,000 next year, the psychological impact will shift against us (JO). And we cannot be sure that no corruption or murder charges will be proved for another eighteen months. Furthermore, a fortuitous leak may net a big fish. Think of the damage the Panama Papers have done to dozens of political leaders, seven top Chinese party bosses, including President Xi Jinping, and Russia’s President Putin.
(http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35957228) .
These strategists then reach a predictable conclusion. "Strike now at what we see as the weakest link. Break the Sirisena-Ranil alliance and the government can be brought down or pushed to dysfunctionality creating an opening for sustained attacks like the GoP did to Obama throughout his second term. Our strategy has one clear focus, prising Sirisena away from Ranil".
Will it work, I will make an assessment anon but to give the devil its due I grant that this is a cunning approach. Before that let me ask, what is the evidence that the JO has indeed adopted such a strategy? Plenty I think. There are many statements and ‘analyses’ with an obvious bent. Second, a group of high-ranking SLFPers met the President and asked him to instruct the authorities to call-off investigations against Rajapaksa family members and bond with MR. Third and most significant is the refusal of the pro-MR faction to split away and form another party though a majority of SLFP activists and the grassroots seem to be with it (especially the hooters!) at the moment. Despite this evanescent advantage, a breakaway group, displaced from state patronage, will wither; time is not on its side. Such has been the invariable experience of sects that break with established parties – Philip, Shan, Bala-Edmund, NSSP and FSP. So the MR-SLFP faction is reluctant to split the party; all its eggs seem to be in Maithri-Mahinda reconciliation and Maithri-Ranil divorce baskets.
Prospects
A doctor dearly wishes well for his patient, but that should not erode the scientific precision of his diagnosis. Likewise I would like to be objective enough to separate my preference (A pox upon the JO!) from assessment of short-term political prospects, say for the next 18 months. I agree that the JO’s efforts at panicking President Sirisena aim at a credible vulnerability. Take for example May Day which is but two weeks away. If the Sirisena-SLFP goes it alone, its showing will be a good deal more modest than the MR faction’s tamasha. But if Sirisena is panicked into appearing on stage side by side with MR (to the thunderous applause of the gathered throng) it would drive a wedge between the UNP and the SLFP-in-government. The obvious countermove to protect Sirisena’s flank is to hold an all-inclusive pro-government May Day (and make sure it is green, blue and red). But does the UNP rank and file have the maturity to understand it? Since May Day is the next bridge to cross it would also be smart of President Sirisena to pull something out of the hat before that.
Another plus I see for the JO’s splitting-strategy is that exposing the previous government’s economic and loan-taking record discomforts SLFP ministers and junior ministers now in the ‘unity’ government. Some SLFP deputy ministers have threatened to withdraw their cooperation if the practice continues. Expose misdeeds of the MR regime and embarrass those who played a role; don’t expose and the public will remain in the dark about outrageous financial transactions! What to do? This could become a time-bomb if the economy worsens and the government increasingly resorts to (justifiably) blaming its predecessor as a way out.
The whiners have one point though: "If there are undocumented borrowings", they say, "what’s the problem? Good for us, we don’t ever need to pay back!" That logic is watertight.
Two other issues could be difficult rapids for the government to negotiate and the JO will exploit them to the hilt; the UNHRC mandated inquiry (only foreign participation is problematic). Second the need to secure a two-thirds majority for the proposed new constitution and then see it through a referendum. The two-thirds and the referendum challenges are one and the same; if the whole SLFP backs the constitution, then both sides of this coin will pass muster.
If President Sirisena keeps his nerve and does not panic for two years I do not see any ways other than what I have enumerated so far, in which the JO strategy can win. The economy is going through a hard time, but my estimate is that there could be a modest upswing in 18 months despite global economic travails. The reason is that I expect a positive response from the outside world to Lanka – both economic and political. I have insisted all along that China does not care a fig for Rajapaksa, Jambupala or any mother’s son, so long as her own interests are not jeopardised. It seems RW-MS has learnt from Mrs B deftness at the non-aligned game and the art of being everybody’s friend and nobody’s enemy. ETCA with India, Chinese grants, investment and debt renegotiation, a democratic veneer instead of ham-fisted authoritarianism, and a pro-Western cultural ethos, the combination should work. Then there is little the JO can do to stall it from stabilising after a perilous initial period.
The JO, in my view, has bet all its eggs on a ‘Rupture the MS-RW link’ strategy; in fact that’s the only game left in town for it to play. It may work, but if President Sirisena keeps his cool and holds his nerve it will fail. In that case President and government are likely to serve out all or most of their terms. Only fools make political predictions stretching beyond half a decade.
