‘Demilitarisation of the IOR’ and neighbourhood perceptions of India

August 12, 2015, 8:17 pm

Among sections of opinion in the South Asian region, China is seen as being in an effort to establish a number of naval bases in India’s neighbouring countries with the aim of containing and restricting India’s perceived military and economic predominance in the region. This perceived ‘encirclement’ of India is being visualized as taking the form of a ‘String of Pearls’. Hence, the ‘String of Pearls’ theory.

Once again, how India is being seen has emerged as a thorny issue in the inter-state relations of South Asia. The magnitude of this question of perception could be gauged in the anxiety informing some Sri Lankan reactions to reports that a bridge of sorts is being sought to be built across the Palk Strait to connect India and Sri Lanka physically.

Close on the heels of this controversy comes the news that the Maldives has reassured India that plans by her to enable investing foreigners in particular to own land in the Maldives would not facilitate the installation of foreign military bases on Maldivian territory. Here, once again, perception goes to the heart of the matter at issue. Sections in India tend to be troubled by stepped-up dealings on the part of her neighbours with extra-regional powers, such as, China, which are interpreted as ‘encircling’ India, through the establishment of a marked military and economic presence in these neighbouring states. In the case of Sri Lanka, Hambantota port is seen by some as being earmarked by China for the strengthening of her economic and military presence in the country.

Some other countries of South Asia where China has established a notable economic presence in the form of port development are Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. China is also reportedly seeking to strengthen her presence in East Africa through the setting-up of a series of naval bases. Thus, would the ‘String of Pearls’ take on accentuated graphic shape, if these reports prove to be true. In all, China is believed to be seeking to establish some 18 naval bases in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Thus, it is plain that perceptions play a substantial role in making or breaking inter-state relations in South Asia. But ground realities in the region may not entirely confirm these perceptions and anxieties. For instance, at the moment China is only collaborating in developing the ports referred to earlier, in South Asia. There is no solid evidence that a Chinese naval and military presence is being strongly established in the South Asian region. China, right now, seems to be giving a greater weight to ‘business’ than military links in her dealings with the states of South Asia.

In the case of Sri Lanka, a ‘land bridge’ to India would not necessarily be to Sri Lanka’s disadvantage, provided diplomacy and negotiations take prime position in our bilateral relations and prove doubly effective. While Sri Lanka’s national interest should take pride of place in negotiations, talks should be carried out on a give-and-take basis to ensure that both parties gain from such a bridge link. Both countries need to aim at a formal agreement which would be mutually advantageous in implementation.

But a ‘land bridge’, on the face of it, is a laudable proposition because, among other things, it would facilitate people-to-people contact between India and Sri Lanka and such contact is an essential precondition for stepped-up regional cooperation and cordiality. True, there is a risk of, for instance, illegal migration occurring both ways, but this is the reason why stress has to be laid on the achievement of a strong legal framework which would look after the legitimate interests of both countries. However, people-to-people contact, as such, is something to be warmly welcomed. Informed and effective diplomacy is central to arriving at a win-win accord on this question. But there is clearly no question of Sri Lanka compromising her national interest in clinching an agreement, if the ‘land bridge’ is indeed being seriously considered.

Since perceptions grow out of mindsets, getting mindsets right is pivotal to strengthening ties among the SAARC Eight. India’s regional heavyweight status in South Asia has bred a plethora of negative attitudes towards her among sections in the region and time and again got in the way of India strengthening her ties with her neighbours. This recurring trend is a cause for regret. Bilateral and multilateral ties in the region have been wilting over the decades as a result of these negative perceptions.

It is obligatory on the part of both, India and her neighbours, to foster positive perceptions of each other, based on cordial regional ties and fair dealing. It is a two-way process that needs to be launched and sustained if SAARC is to progress.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Sri Lanka has been principally behind the demilitarization of the IOR over the years. There is the Indian Ocean Peace Zone (IOPZ) proposal, for example, which was the brainchild of the Sirimavo Bandaranaike administration of the early seventies and safely and consensually piloted through the UN General Assembly by our prime diplomats of those times. Today the IOPZ is part of International Law. Such were the capabilities of our principal diplomats in those years. Those were ‘the good old days’ of Lankan diplomacy; so unlike subsequent years when even political lackeys were sent to some of our missions abroad to achieve the international fortunes of this country.

Accordingly, demilitarization of the IOR is not new to Sri Lanka’s international political lexicon. The IOPZ proposal won wide favour in this region and it would be in the collective interest of South Asia for this worthy aim to be achieved and kept. To the extent to which SAARC works consensually towards demilitarizing the IOR, to the same degree would the regional organization be in a position to achieve the common, legitimate aims of its members in a friction-free manner.

Therefore, the SAARC Eight would be working towards the well being of South Asia by saying ‘No’ to military bases and other security arrangements, initiated with extra-regional powers, which would militate against the principle of Non-alignment and the IOPZ concept. However, mutually advantageous economic ties could be established between the countries of South Asia and states outside this region, provided the collective security of South Asia is not compromised.