It is an idiocy to have given nominations to Mahinda

Wednesday, 22 July 2015

Party reports reaching us confirms that the UPFA election campaign has already collapsed. The expectation of the UPFA leaders who thought that UPFA could win this election with the confidence of the former Mahinda Rajapaksa has been shattered. The main reason for that is the popularity and the attraction of Mahinda Rajapaksa has been significantly broken down.

Unless the outside crowd brought for the meetings of Mahinda Rajapaksa the native crowd living in the area attending the meeting has been significantly reduced. Since Rajapaksa is giving support only to few selected candidates, the UPFA contestants have been provoked and they
are trying to bring down Mahinda to their election campaign.

Pro Mahinda factions thought they can form a government with the 5.8 million votes Mahinda obtained during the last election and make Mahinda Rajapaksa the Prime Minister. Pro Mahinda UPFA groups calculated out of the 12 million vote bank following the distribution
of 6-7 lakhs votes of the TNA, 4 – 5 lakhs votes to the JVP, 5 lakhs votes for other parties , another 6 – 8 lakhs of SLFP votes to Maithri and another 35 – 40 lakhs votes of UNP they can form a government with the balance.

According to the last election there is a 2.5 million fixed vote bank for the UNP but however now the situation is changing.

Generally there is a low zeal with the public in a General election than a presidential election. Therefore the polled votes would be reduced than a presidential election. This was very evident when you look at the last presidential and General Elections.

Although the district wise candidate’s attraction would affect the district wise results and despite Mahinda Rajapaksa would contest from Kurunegala it will not be decisive for the other district results. Since President Maithri has categorically said he will not make Mahinda the prime minister after the election and the fact that Mahinda is not a MP or a party leader currently he is not considered a strong factor among the public. Meantime within the UPFA election campaign Mahinda Rajapaksa has still not become an attractive leader. Except the Sinhala racist speech Mahinda don’t have any other valid slogan to campaign to the public this time. Meantime since Mahinda is keeping close ally with people with corruption charges intelligent SLFP supporters are disappointed over his fake attitude.

Meanwhile Maithripala Sirisena is now giving leadership and getting attracted towards the SLFP’s Sanga, Weda, Guru, Govi, Kamkaru five pillars (Pancha Maha Balavegaya) as an impartial and just a leader. Therefore the SLFP supporters more than using their votes in favour of
Mahinda Rajapaksa are deciding not to use their votes or look for any other alternative.

Under this context the earlier floating majority of the SLFP would be pulled by the UNP and the JVP. When taking all these facts into consideration there is a risk of summoning Mahinda Rajapaksa to the UPFA would lose the expected results.