Towards a ‘prime ministerial’ election

Editorial-June 18, 2015, 7:28 pm 

SLFPers were elated at the outcome of a party heavyweights’ meeting on Tuesday; President Maithripala Sirisena appointed a committee to settle the acrimonious dispute over former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s efforts to be the UPFA prime ministerial candidate at the next general election. Their euphoria was short-lived. No sooner had President Sirisena appointed the reconcilliation committee than he let his position known to the SLFP rebels that former President Rajapaksa would not get the UPFA ticket to contest. Those who are trying to persuade Sirisena and Rajapaksa to smoke the peace pipe are engaged in a Sisyphean task. Never the twain shall meet!

President Sirisena is all out to queer Rajapaksa’s pitch for two reasons. He detests the Rajapaksa clan which harassed him; he also cannot act independently of those who enabled him to realise his presidential dream. They are determined to prevent Rajapaksa from clawing his way up through the political rubble and Sirisena cannot disappoint them. He does not want another problem to contend with.

It is now clear that Rajapaksa will go ahead with his plan to field his own team at the next general election. The enemy camp that engineered his defeat at the last presidential election is now divided. President Sirisena will be without the backing of the UNP, the TNA, the SLMC and most of the civil society organisations that stood by him in the presidential contest.

President Sirisena’s problem will be to steer the UPFA to victory, which will require the SLFP to defeat both Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa. Else, he will be blamed for bringing about the UPFA’s downfall. He will also have to ensure the re-election of the SLFP MPs who sided with him in the presidential race vis-à-vis a hostile campaign against them within the party.

Some government heavyweights have accused President Sirisena of delaying the parliamentary election to ruin the UNP’s chances of winning. But, a delay in dissolving Parliament is advantageous to his bête noire, Rajapaksa, who is cashing in on prevailing political uncertainty. Thus, if the President has resorted to delaying tactics as his critics claim, what he gains on the swings he will lose on the roundabouts.

It is being argued in some quarters that if Rajapaksa contests a general election and fails to be PM he will fall between two stools; he will lose privileges and facilities he is now entitled to as a former president. This is a worrisome proposition for any former Head of State. So, some political observers think he might try to overcome this problem by opting for a National List slot and urging the people to give his team a clear majority if they want him as PM. But, Rajapaksa is a risk taker and his elusive mind is difficult to read.

In a three-cornered contest, the probability of Parliament being hung is higher. The realignment of political forces is likely to happen the way it did after the Jan. 08 election with the UNP and the SLFP having to opt for a political marriage of convenience. But, what if they fail to bag enough seats between them to form a government with the UPFA rebels led by Rajapaksa holding the balance of power or if Rajapaksa’s team emerges stronger than the SLFP numerically in the race? These possibilities cannot be ruled out. Both politics and cricket are characterised by glorious uncertainties though they are poles apart—the latter is played by gentlemen and the former mostly by rogues.

We have had seven presidential elections so far, but it is for the first time that we are going to have a ‘prime ministerial’ election as it were. Wickremesinghe succeeded in avoiding Rajapaksa in two electoral contests in 2010 and 2015. But, the upcoming general election will be a contest between the duo for the post of Prime Minster.