Sri Lanka Presidential Election a Logical Prediction

 Monday, 22 December 2014 

A group of highly skilled professional whose area of expertise are on analytical skill came up with a simple logical explanation as to the outcome of the Presidential Election (PE) 2015.

To start it is important to highlight the results of the 2010 PE MR approx. 6 Million

Opposition candidate approx. 4.2 Mil Votes

In this scenario the following factors were not taken into consideration and hence the benefit of doubt is given to MR:
 The manner the election was conducted
 The impact of the War Victory
 The opponent not being a politician.

It is an excepted fact that there should exists a popularity drop of 2.5% to an incumbent unless under very exceptional circumstances.

Hence MR popularity should drop by approx. 10% and this should add up to the opposition. This was visible at the recently concluded provincial council elections.

MR approx. 5.4 Million
Opposition approx. 4.8 Million
Current situation

In the 2015 PE there are approx., 1 Million new voters exercising their votes for the first time and the majority of them are under the age group of 25 years necessarily youth of this country. With the current youth unrest, educational issues, frustration will see them move towards the opposition as an anti-government vote. Hence with an 80:20 split towards the opposition the numbers should read as follows:

MR approx. 5.6

MY3 approx. 5.6
This election will also see a very high voter turnout of approx. 75%-80%

At the last PE election there were almost 4 Million voters who did not cast their votes and a good majority of it were UNP voters who did not vote due to issues with the leadership, endorsing the war victories ect. It is believed and assumed that this time they will vote as seen in the UVA provincial election. Hence on a very conservative basis of 25%voting an addition 1.2 Million voters will vote at this election.

MR approx. 5.6

MY3 approx. 6.6
We have not taken in to consideration the negative impact created on MR as a result of the July Aluthgama incident, corruption charges on highways, tender irregularities, the way the country is governed as a dictatorship, Law and order and Governance. The above predictions are also based on a free and fair election with no intimidation and malpractice that is usually exercised by the governing party.

On the part of the opposition they can increase their margin if the UNP leaders will motivate its members who did not vote at the 2010 PE to exercises their right.