‘The Brave New World’ of post-Cold War times

November 5, 2014

Berlin Wall (1961 – 1980)

It could be said, then, that the iron laws of economics compelled the Soviet Union, under Gorbachev, to normalize its relations with the US in particular and the West in general in view of the fact that overseas military involvements were becoming unaffordable. By the time Gorbachev came to power in the Soviet Union, the Afghan War was well on its way to becoming a decade-long Soviet military involvement, which was exacting more than a pretty penny. Hence his decision to speed-up the détente process with the US.

The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan of the late seventies of the century past played a considerable role in ending the Cold War but it is hardly mentioned by commentators as a catalyst in shaping the political contours of the world we now live in. That is, ‘The Brave New World’ of ‘democracies’.

With Germany in particular and the West in general rallying once again to celebrate the demolishing of the Berlin Wall 25 years ago, it is relevant that the ‘Afghan invasion’ is viewed in the light of an important factor which brought about the demise of the Soviet Union.

Looking back, it could be said that the Soviet Union’s Afghan misadventure was as costly a foreign policy blunder as the US’ military involvement in Vietnam; the biggest ‘international story’ for the world media from the early sixties to the mid-seventies. Inasmuch as the ‘Vietnam debacle’ wrecked US efforts to spread and consolidate its influence in the Asia-Pacific region in the sixties and the seventies, the Soviets’ Afghan military disaster, undermined the USSR’s drive to expand and intensify its presence in central and south-west Asia. Both failures proved prohibitively costly in terms of lives lost and material resources squandered.

The celebration of the fall of the Berlin Wall helps turn the spotlight also on former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, under whose eyes the Soviet Union and the vast communist bloc, which it headed, came apart. Gorbachev swore by the principles of ‘Perestroika’, or state restructuring and political liberalization, and ‘Glasnost’, or transparency in governance. These ideals endeared him to Western leaders and their publics, but it became apparent by the mid-eighties that the Soviets’ costly overseas military commitments were playing a major role in determining the latter’s decision to step-up the dialogue process with the West. In other words, wars, such as the one which was being conducted in Afghanistan, were beginning to adversely impact Soviet coffers.

Moreover, US President Ronald Reagan who dominated the eighties decade in the US and outside, was bent on getting the Soviets to live beyond their means. He intended intensifying the arms race with the Soviets to such an extent that the latter would be compelled to drop out of it. In this aim the West succeeded, and very soon the Soviet’s were very much inclined towards slowing down the arms race. For the Soviet Union, Reagan’s Strategic Defence Initiative or ‘Star Wars’project, for instance, was proving an impossible proposition. It could not have met the financial costs of this gigantic arms spending venture.

Besides, the Afghan involvement was proving an exceedingly ‘bloody’ embarrassment for the Soviets. In this military imbroglio, which is continuing to rage, the US hit on the strategy of arming the Afghan Mujahedin through Pakistan and this proved decisive in breaking the back of the Soviet military incursion. By 1989, the Soviets were withdrawing from Afghanistan.

But the Mujahedin evolved into the Taliban in post-Soviet times and it need hardly be said that the Taliban is proving a number one security issue in both Pakistan and Afghanistan today. The 2001 NATO military incursion into Afghanistan notwithstanding, the Taliban and its ally the Al-Qaeda are continuing to prove a major military threat to the West.

Therefore, the observer is compelled to ask: In terms of making south-west Asia a safer region to live in, what has the West achieved in it? Practically nothing worth commenting on because despite having been militarily involved in Afghanistan for well over a decade, NATO forces are today in the process of folding-up their operations in that country, leaving some of the foremost security issues in it unresolved.

Besides, what should have figured as the primary political project for Afghanistan is being left unaddressed by the West: that is, the consolidation of democratic institutions and norms in the country. The same is true of Iraq, which too is being veritably left to its devices by the West. Today, the poser one is compelled to confront in Iraq is whether a firm foundation has been established in it for inclusive democratic rule. Accordingly, the law and order situations in Iraq and Afghanistan are not fully conducive to the initiation of efforts aimed at establishing democratic rule and the connected ethos.

Therefore, although the West is currently celebrating the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, the poser could be raised as to whether the world community has made best use of the opportunities and possibilities the post-Cold War situation has thrown-up.

The end of the Cold War was expected by some commentators to lead to a situation where democratic rule would reign almost universally. Clearly, as matters stand currently, this state of affairs would not come to pass in a hurry. There is no global consensus on the need for the democratic system of government, understood essentially as inclusive development and equal empowerment.

Besides, rather than move steadily towards a ‘meeting of minds’ on world political issues, the sole super power, the US, and the erstwhile super power, Russia, are at logger-heads over geopolitical questions which even have grave implications for international peace and stability, such as, the Ukraine. This is a veritable throw back to the Cold War days. At the height of the Ukraine crisis, some observers were found wondering whether Cold War tensions were once again being unleashed.

Some of the above issues in world politics give the impression that Realpolitik is very much to the fore in international affairs. Power struggles of a Cold War kind are likely to break out in the teeth of an inability on the part of the major powers to arrive at consensual decisions on contentious questions.