Political settlement or regime change!
Photo by AFP, via SBS
“I fled down labyrinthine waysAnd glooms of chasmed fears”
(Not exactly Francis Thompson)
This essay is premised on an ill-omened reading of the Geneva tea-leaves. What be this ominous message I see floating in the cup? For reasons I will lay out in the initial paragraphs I find it hard to refute the conclusion (more than just a suspicion) that the international powers that pushed through the UNHRC resolution in Geneva in March have made a strategic decision to carry through regime change in Colombo, in due course, and when conditions ripen. We are now in the early stages of that process. This is not to say that they will succeed, though unless there is profound conversion in Temple Trees, it is likely they will. Regime change in Kiev (Yanukovich’s ouster) was so badly managed that it woke the Russian Bear, lost Crimea and now (April 2014) imperils the very existence of the Ukraine as an independent state. Tealeaves only signal messages, but there’s many a slip possible before the lip. My assessment, however, is that since the West has India on board, bashful abstention notwithstanding, it will not screw up this one. The only way out for the Rajapakse Regime is to experience profound epiphany, renounce its wicked ways, repent and renew its commitment to 13A and LLRC obligations. But can it?
