Does USA Or India Want Regime Change?
By Kumar David -March 12, 2014
Prof Kumar David
The short answer is “no” in the case of India, but America I believe is keeping its options open; it will not get so deeply involved in this pandemonium without strategy and game plan. The resolution has taken centre stage; briefings and lobbying overshadow everything else in the Geneva corridors. The crucial issue is no longer the wording, though stake holders tear each others hair out re “strengthening” or “watering down”. The dynamics of the next stage depend entirely on whether the Lankan government accepts the resolution and agrees to implement it, or rejects it and the UNHRC makes its moves. The two paths along which the crisis will flow in the next 6 to 12 months depend on this choice; an immediate crisis if the government rejects; a maturing conflict if it agrees to go along, and, obviously as it will, messes around with implementation.
March 7 was the first consultation where the US presented the draft. The hall was packed with many countries present. The EU countries welcomed the resolution. Some even wanted to add to the text and surprisingly the edits strengthened it not it watered down. Uruguay and Chile spoke in support of the US resolution, while Mexico was vocal but undecided. Japan spoke of the need for justice, suggesting it is be moving towards supporting the resolution. Two countries spoke in favour of the Lankan government; Thailand and Pakistan and are sure votes against the US. The Africans are watching; they are waiting for a lead from South Africa. The Organisation of Islamic Countries, strangely, kept away from the meeting.
The US has stirred up a buzz; so what is its possible game plan? Till recently I thought the US was not seeking regime change as it had no alternative to put in place. But this degenerated into a chicken and egg scenario; don’t change as there is no alternative, without change there will be no alternative. In the State Department’s view, I believe, matters seemed to be going from bad to worse and at some point during the last 12 months it snapped. Why may the US stance on the Sri Lankan regime flipped to a new attitude? One reason is that American public and Congressional opinion about justice and human rights has to be assuaged and the second is the influence of the Tamil diaspora in Britain and Canada. Both are small factors, in isolation inadequate as explanations. A third it is that Washington, like Delhi, is fed up with Colombo’s insolence and untruths and wants to teach the upstarts a lesson. Again this is not how great powers make foreign policy. All three count but not enough to explain.Read More
