Sri Lanka Experience And The Storm Gathers Momentum For Modi
S. Sivathasan
What Nehru wrote about a great Indian personage, when changed a bit to the political stalwart that Modi is, it will read thus. He came as a tonic to the demoralized Indian mind, gave it self- confidence and some sense of political direction. Modi storm which has intensified and gathered momentum is ready for its second landfall. The portents indicated are that when it does fall, Congress will be devastated, Third Front pulverized and Aam Aadmi eliminated from a contest of any note. Serious discussions, edifying articles and credible survey results are now accessible for a better appreciation of election prospects. Let us await the fall as it shapes.
The Surge
In my three previous presentations on Modi, I examined the BJP – Congress layout in the political landscape and the likely course of Modi surge in the labyrinth that is Indian election. Most of the variables are falling into place, the haze is getting cleared and predictables are increasing. What is most conspicuous is that the Indian electorate is opting more decisively for Modi and BJP. In my article on Modi dated 2nd January, I posed a hypothetical question, why Congress cannot come below 100 and why Modi will not go above 280. Though much ground needs to be lost by the former and gained by the latter, opposing direction of travel seems well pointed for the two.
On a time scale till May, February is yet for speculation. March is for Alliance partners to be in place and seat numbers to come closer to greater probability. April is for pre poll alliances and May is for post poll partnerships. With information flowing from all around, the two major parties have got into definitive territory, both negative and positive. Like the waning moon, AAP is corroding its shine by the day. Come April and it shall have depedestalised itself to single digit terrain.
If Modi Wave became a Storm and has gathered Momentum, what are the signs? Popularity escalating to4/5th weightage on an all India scale is phenomenal enough. More striking is the rate of growth from December 8 to now. Can an electorate move on from a limited perspective to a national one with ease and speed? Yes is the answer that Sri Lanka provides.
