Editorial-February 11, 2014,
Speculation is rife in political circles that the government is mulling over a snap presidential election. The Opposition is talking about a common candidate. Will the anti-government forces be able to cobble together an alliance again to challenge President Mahinda Rajapaksa?
The UNP will have to field its own candidate at the next presidential election for several reasons. Firstly, it blundered last time by getting its voters to back an outsider—Gen. Sarath Fonseka. It realised its mistake immediately afterwards and broke ranks with him at the general election that followed. Today, it avoids him like the plague, having lost part of its vote base to his Democratic Party (DP).
Secondly, UNP National Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe won’t be able to justify avoiding another presidential contest and remain in that post. It’s Hobson’s choice for him. Whether he runs for president or runs away, he will be in trouble unless, of course, he wins by opting to contest.
Thirdly, elections are money-spinners, as it were, for political parties. The UNP and the SLFP, in or out of power, get enough funds for major elections, especially presidential polls, from various sources. In 2010, the UNP, in dire financial straits, didn’t get any dosh for the presidential election. There would have been enough funds to tide it over today had it fielded its own candidate.
Ranil loyalist, Mangala Samaraweera, has already gone on record as saying that the next common candidate, if any, will have to be from the UNP. He would not have spoken ex cathedra without blessings from the party leadership.
The TNA threw in its lot with Gen. Fonseka last time, but it will be compelled to contest the next presidential polls. It obtained 78 percent of votes at last year’s Northern Provincial Council election. Those who are campaigning for more autonomy for the North on the basis of the outcome of that electoral exercise will consider it counterproductive to help a common Opposition candidate from the majority community fare well in that part of the country.
It is highly unlikely that the JVP will want to join forces with the UNP and/or the DP to back a common presidential candidate, having suffered a debilitating breakaway and lost a sizeable chunk of its vote base to Gen. Fonseka’s party following the last presidential election.
Former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga has said she does not rule out the possibility of contesting the next presidential election. It may be that, still smarting from some indignities she has suffered at the hands of the powers that be she has sought to give the Rajapaksas jitters, so to speak, by pretending that she wants to create a rift in the SLFP by running for president. But, even if she really wants to contest with a view to winning, she needs a party to nominate her.
There is no way CBK could wrest control of the SLFP. She is the last person the UNP will want to field even if she solicits its support because she is responsible for its current predicament. She sacked the UNP-led UNF government in 2004 and ruined the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s chances of securing the presidency the following year. She can, however, field herself as a spoiler candidate from a minor party if she so desires but, having retired as a winner, she may not want to be remembered as a loser for the rest of her life.
Gen. Fonseka will have to contest the next presidential election on his own. For, the UNP and the JVP have severed links with him and the TNA campaigning for a probe into war crimes which, it alleges, were committed by the army under his command, won’t touch him with a barge pole. The government will do away with legal obstacles in his path to enable him to contest the next presidential election as his entry into the fray will cause a split in the anti-government vote. It is only wishful thinking that he will ever agree to refrain from contesting and back someone else.
It is being argued in some quarters that a prominent Buddhist monk may contest the presidential election. The Buddhist clergy’s strength as a force in modern-day politics is highly overrated, though the JHU, in 2004, benefited from a sympathy vote following the demise of Ven. Gangodawila Soma Thera, who died under allegedly mysterious circumstances overseas. Its impressive performance was only a flash in the pan.
In December 2011, it may be recalled the Maha Nayake Theras of the Malwatte, Asgiriya, Ramagngna and Amarapura Nikayas made a joint appeal to the UNP, seeking the appointment of Karu Jayasuriya as the party leader, but in vain. The Maha Nayakes proposed and the UNP Working Committee disposed! If the highly respected prelates cannot even get a person of their choice appointed the leader of an Opposition party in the doldrums, the question is whether a Buddhist monk, however popular he may be as a preacher, social worker and opinion leader, will be able to get himself elected President by simply promising to abolish the executive presidency. Power politics is far too complex to be reduced to a single issue!
There is reason to believe that the next presidential election will be like the 1982 contest, where several prominent candidates were in the fray including the then incumbent president. Opposition parties will have to learn from their past mistakes and think of a better strategy if they are to turn the tables on the government. They only betray their lack of confidence when they talk of a common candidate way too early.
