IMF questions integrity of government’s  economic data – UNP

By Zacki Jabbar-January 15, 2014

 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has questioned the integrity of the economic data provided by the government.

 Financial Analyst and UNP MP Eran Wickremeratne told The Island that unreliable information provided by the Department of Census and Statistics and the Central Bank had resulted in the IMF raising questions, since it differed from the information in its possession.

 There are also questions of transparency in terms of the timing and release of data, he said, adding "Sri Lanka has become the Wonder of Asia only in terms of imaginary growth, revenue and poverty reduction statistics. The doubts raised are not an aspersion on the integrity of the vast number of honest professionals, but on the political authority and some senior officials who have succumbed to political pressure."

 Wickremeratne alleged that wrong assumptions and incorrect data not only provided for subsequent manipulation, but also led to distorted policy decisions.

 The estimate provided for tax revenue as a percentage of GDP had been continuously overestimated, he observed. "For example in 2009 when revenue to GDP was 12.75 per cent, the estimation was that it would be 15 percent in 2012, but the actual tax revenue  turned out to be 12 percent. This practice has continued in recent years."

From 2009 to 2011, the government revenue figures had been published every month for the preceding 36 months. In 2012 it was available for only nine months. In 2013 the numbers were released sporadically. There was every reason to believe that the data for the fourth quarter of last year would be massaged to justify the conclusion that had been reached in advance for the whole of 2013, the MP noted.  

Referring to the government’s claim that poverty had dropped from 15.2 percent in 2006 to 6.4 percent in 2013, he said it was based on an official poverty line which translated into a daily consumption of less than one US dollar. "These assumptions are not in line with international definitions of poverty. The consequence is that the number of families receiving Samurdhi benefits decreased from 1.9 million in 2006 to 1.4 million in 2013. The dry rations programme which benefitted 122,000 families in 2006 has been discontinued. The nutrition programme which benefitted 186,000 families in 2006 has been scaled down to 33,000 families. Wrong assumptions has resulted in the poor being disadvantaged". 

Wickremeratne noted that Sri Lanka’s position in the budget transparency had deteriorated steeply from 13 in 2010 to 53 in 2012. The index was based on pre-budget information, mid-cycle reviews and post budget information and reporting.