Election year

Editorial-January 4, 2014,

As our regular columnist, Rajan Philips, writes on this page, 2014 will be an election year in Sri Lanka (and elsewhere). Only the provincial elections to elect new Western and Southern Provincial Councils have been announced up to now but speculation is rife that there is likelihood of the president calling premature parliamentary and/or presidential elections as well. How well the ruling coalition will do at the provincial elections will obviously dictate whether the major contests are to be run this year. Ruling parties always try to time elections to best suit their prospects of re-election and in countries like Sri Lanka, where the incumbents are given the constitutional muscle to do so, such handicap-seeking is the inevitable rule rather than the odd exception. That is why President Mahinda Rajapaksa called a presidential election soon after the war ended to ride the crest of a wave of popularity following that signal achievement. Sir John Kotelawela’s judgment in 1956 was not as sound. The country’s foreign reserves and economic strength at that time did not save him from a drubbing.

Citing Wikepedia, Philips says 23 countries and the European Parliament will go to the polls this year. Sri Lanka is not on the list because this country does not schedule its elections either by statute or the constitution. While neither parliament nor the president can go beyond the stipulated time limit, they can choose to go early to the polls if the president perceives an advantage. He also can (as he does) proclaim that the country has been blessed with a surfeit of democracy with the rulers choosing to go to the country earlier than they need to. The president is granted near unlimited flexibility for timing elections and we even had the sorry spectacle of an attempt by one incumbent to explore whether, having called a premature election for his own purposes, to add on the unexpired portion of his first term to his second! We owe the late Dr. W. Dahanayaka a debt of gratitude for giving us a single day general election instead of the three-day exercise we had previously. The then ruling UNP took advantage of this to fix their safe seats for polling on the first day, the not-so-safe for the second and the dicey seats for the last day. The object of this strategy was the perception of vasi paththata hoiya or hurrah for the winning side. But even that went awry in 1956 when S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike’s MEP killed the giants on Day 1!

Rulers anywhere, and not only in this country, are least averse to taking advantage of factors in their favour in timing or running for election. So tax money is spent in doling out handouts to the electorate regardless of whether the economy can afford them or not. The people, of course, and not the politicians pay for such benefits which the vote-seekers flourish as though they came out of their own pockets. Unfortunately there are foolish voters who take such bait. We have time and again urged in this space that the Provincial Councils are a huge white elephant costing the country resources it cannot afford and not giving the people benefits commensurate with costs. They only serve the political class, providing them with ladders to climb into Parliament. Recent elections have also seen the proliferation of the unfortunate habit of incumbent politicians using the PCs as vehicles to induct their progeny and close family members into the lucrative `business’ that has served them well. The profession that kinsfolk will not be given the party ticket was quickly forgotten and the last crop of PC elections saw the family trees sprouting many new branches. Given the Rajapaksa family’s formidable presence within the commanding heights of the government and the extended family’s presence in its upper levels, the president’s ability to prevent lesser politicians from claiming similar benefits was irretrievably eroded. So the ganders have been served a generous helping of the goose’s sauce!

Elections don’t come cheap and what we’ll have this year will cost the people plenty. That is not restricted to the tax money funding the logistics of holding elections alone. A lot of other mainly black money will be poured into political war chests and uselessly splurged on campaign propaganda including cutouts, posters and rallies that often include crowd-pulling musical shows. Despite recent events revealing the nexus between politicians and various Mafias including, despicably, the drug cartels, the caravan happily rolls along. Big money does not fund elections for altruistic reasons. Contributors regard such expenditure as investments from which rich dividends can be earned via political patronage liberally bestowed by the winners. When President J.R. Jayewardene used his five sixths majority of 1977 to foist an executive presidential system of government on the country, that constitution at least had the redeeming feature of a two-term limit on the presidency. It is fairly well known that JRJ was flirting with the idea of amending that provision but that had to be abandoned in the face of the two raging insurrections then blazing in both the north and the south of the country. Ironically, defectors from JRJ’s UNP enabled President Mahinda Rajapaksa to abolish the term limit and also scuttle the 17th Amendment that held the promise of at least a modicum of good governance for the country.

Whether the opposition UNP which remains in tatters can at least now regain a vestige of unity to fight the PC elections already on the cards as well as other contests that are likely to follow remains an open question. Mr. Karu Jayasuriya who heads the new Leadership Council commands widespread respect within the party and among the Buddhist clergy as a man of integrity and good faith. He’s been reaching out to UNP dissidents although he has not succeeded in persuading Mr. Sajith Premadasa and Ms. Talatha Athukorale to take their places in the council. There is inevitable speculation about a candidate with the ability to mount a credible challenge to President Mahinda Rajapaksa but no prospect has yet been identified. General Sarath Fonseka was the rabbit the common opposition pulled out of their top hat last time round. Despite his formidable credentials he couldn’t pull it off and had to serve time in jail for his trouble. Mahinda Rajapaksa is a consummate politician and a strategist par excellence. Outwitting him will be no easy task.