Modi Storm In The Making
By S. Sivathasan --December 14, 2013 |
S. Sivathasan
Gathering Storm
A threadbare discussion is yet on, whether the Modi phenomenon seen on December 8th was a wave or just a gust. Many are laboring the point that there was no wave. Post-election, some see a storm in the making. Before the debate runs its course, a more devastating second landfall will overtake the first. Since the storm is already formed, watching its intensity can only be awaited. It cannot be preempted or deflected, nor can it be abated. Storm Katrina took two days between formation and landfall. For an election in a massive electorate such as India, four months are less than two days for a tropical storm. As some see on the radar, the storm has started moving and all feather weights standing on its way or seeking to resist it will be winnowed away.
Imperatives Before Parties
In the ensuing Lok Sabha encounter next May or earlier, there are only two national parties, BJP and Congress that will contend for power at the centre. The regional and state parties can have a meaningful engagement only as an alliance partner and never otherwise. No major party at state level has an all India perspective to stand at a general election seeking power for central governance. So all of them confined to a limited locality like the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra, Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu or Trinamool Congress in W. Bengal cannot stake a claim to central governance. They have to forge a pre poll alliance with either of the national parties to show up a credible performance. Those who do not do so are constrained to come into a post poll coalition. Either of the course is inescapable if they are to continue in the limelight, to partake of all what goes with power and to be of consequence.
In such a scenario how will events move from now till nomination? For prospective allies from the state, most primary in their calculation is which national party has the best assurance of success. Which alliance holds the finest chance of victory for them? In this respect, for once since 1984 the direction is very clear, so well in advance. Modi and BJP constitute a ‘sellers-market’ and buyers know it for sure. With bargaining power being heavily weighted towards the former the latter cannot specify demanding terms. BJP can therefore have its choice pick.
