Midweek Politics: Monsoons And Elections
By Dharisha Bastians -September 6, 2012
Dharisha Bastians
The much-longed-for monsoon rains are lashing at the capital Colombo and other parts of the south west as Sri Lanka gears up for yet another provincial election and international challenges pertaining to its post-war accountability and reconciliation plans in the days and weeks ahead.
With election campaigning having officially ended at midnight yesterday, political parties led by the UPFA and the UNP are vying for supremacy in the battleground provinces of North Central and Eastern, although the results of the Sabaragamuwa Provincial Council are almost a foregone conclusion, with the incumbent UPFA likely to carry the council with a comfortable majority.
Political analysts feel that the only Province that is really in play at the September 8 election is the East, which is likely to be clinched by the Tamil National Alliance. However with 37 council seats up for grabs, predictions are that while the TNA may obtain a majority, it will have to garner the support of other opposition parties if it wants to form a provincial government. Current predictions are that the TNA will gain 12 seats, with six seats going to the UNP, giving the two parties combined 18 seats, still one short of the council majority. Here, opposition analysts feel, is where the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress will come into play.
The SLMC decided to contest the east separately from the UPFA after an original decision to contest under the ruling party banner divided the party membership. The SLMC is likely to clinch the second or third largest number of seats in the council and will then in a uniquely tough position as it decides whether to throw in its lot with the UPFA or the combined opposition. The UPFA has offered its Chief Minister slot to Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillaiyan if it wins the Eastern Provincial Council. The greatest carrot that the combined opposition could in such an event offer the SLMC is the potential of a Muslim Chief Minister of the Council, something the UPFA simply cannot offer due to the Pillaiyan factor in play.
