The Attacks In Sri Lanka And Trends In Salafi Jihadist Activity

The information available so far paints a bleak picture of severe intelligence and security failures, where information submitted to the Sri Lanka authorities about planned attacks was ignored

by Yoram Schweitzer-2019-05-10

 

The recent suicide attack in Sri Lanka, launched by a local group linked to the Islamic State, targeted the symbols of Christianity and Western tourists and businesspeople. The attack aimed to terrorize Sri Lankan citizens, drive a wedge between them and the government, and foment discord between the various ethnic groups. It demonstrated anew that the lack of effective cooperation and intelligence sharing between the intelligence, security, and enforcement agencies is a central factor in the success of terror groups to carry out their plans. The military defeat of the Islamic State does not herald the destruction of the organization or the end of its activity - quite the opposite. The Salafi jihadist ideology and the modus operandi represented by the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and their affiliates continue to inspire terrorists, whether they are directly or indirectly linked to them, or see them as a model for imitation. Details and the lessons of the Sri Lanka attack, if properly learned, will help prevent or obstruct future terror plans of the Islamic State and its supporters – plans that are expected to challenge many countries in the years to come.

 

On April 21, 2019, a local terror group in Sri Lanka linked to the Islamic State launched a multi-site suicide attack that killed over 250 people and wounded several hundred others. The targets included three hotels in the capital Colombo and three churches - in Colombo, Negombo, and Batticaloa. During attempts in the following days to arrest suspects in Colombo, two more suicide attacks took place, at a hostel and an apartment building. In one attack the wife of one of the attackers blew herself up and killed two of her children and three police officers. In a second incident, during a police raid on a site where terrorists were filmed taking responsibility for the attack - which turned out to have also served as the factory where the group’s suicide belts were made - three terrorists blew themselves up, killing women and children who were in the building, along with police participating in the raid.

 

The common assumption that the attack was revenge for the attack on a mosque in New Zealand by an extreme rightwing Islamophobe, which killed 49 people, is questionable, since the preparations for the Sri Lanka attack began several months previously. However, it is certainly possible that the New Zealand attack advanced the date of the Sri Lanka attack.

 

The Islamic State took responsibility for the Sri Lanka attack in a video published by its news agency Amaq, showing eight perpetrators – all from Sri Lanka. Most of the suicide attackers were educated, middle class, and fairly well off; they had studied overseas, and included at least one who had spent time on the battlefield in Syria. The leader of the group, Hashim Zahran, who was also one of the suicide bombers, was known for some time before the attacks as an imam with radical views that he openly propounded. The security forces in Sri Lanka were given prior information about plans for attacks on churches and hotels, but due to the lack of any updates or cooperation on intelligence and operations, the information was not used to foil the attack. The island is currently still on high alert, since some of the group’s activists are still at large and armed, and there are fears they could try to launch further attacks.

 

The information available so far paints a bleak picture of severe intelligence and security failures, where information submitted to the Sri Lanka authorities about planned attacks was ignored. This failure had horrific consequences, in spite of the fact that the country has experience in fighting terror and just a decade ago suffered a harsh civil war, including fatal terror attacks, arising from ethnic hostility between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority. The Tamil Tigers, among the world’s most prominent perpetrators of suicide attacks, were based on a secular, ethnic-nationalist ideology rather than on a distorted interpretation of Islam. Until this latest wave of terror, the Muslim minority in Sri Lanka had avoided such attacks, and limited its activity last year to destruction of statues of Buddha.

 

The current attack is clearly the result of the radicalization involving two local groups, National Thowheeth Janawath (NTJ) and Jammiyathul Millathu Ibrahim (JMI), from whom the attackers broke away. Some of them had links to support groups from the Islamic State in Bangladesh and India. It was apparently these links that led to the decision to carry out suicide attacks, which are the trademark of the Salafi jihadist ideology embodied by the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and their affiliates. The fact that the terrorists came from well established families, and some had even studied in universities overseas, once again indicates that recruits for suicide missions are not drawn only from the “uneducated and ignorant, with economic and mental problems.”

 

An initial analysis of the attacks shows that:

 

a. The group’s aims were to terrorize Sri Lankan citizens, drive a wedge between them and the government, foment discord between the various ethnic groups, and encourage Muslims to withdraw from the general society in view of the expected persecution following the attacks. Indeed, it already appears that frustrated citizens have attacked Muslim individuals.

 

b. The attacks targeted the symbols of Christianity and Western tourists and businesspeople in Sri Lanka, identified with the local authorities. The Islamic State spokesman, Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajer, declared recently that the Islamic State, its affiliates, and its loyalists will continue to carry out attacks against the heretics who are fighting it all over the world, and that all Muslims should join its ranks.

 

c. Once again it became clear that the lack of effective cooperation and intelligence sharing between the intelligence, security, and enforcement agencies is a central factor in the success of terror groups to carry out their plans. Indeed, the Sri Lankan President, who is engaged in political hostilities with the Prime Minister, has already announced the dismissal of the Defense Minister and the Chief of Colombo Police, for a series of failures that facilitated the attacks. The intelligence failure is likely to have further political impact.

 

d. The military defeat of the Islamic State does not herald its destruction or the end of its activity - quite the opposite. Today, in spite of losing its territorial hold and rule, dozens of terror and guerilla attacks in the name of the Islamic State are still taking place in towns, districts, and desert areas of Iraq and Syria, where it established the center of its caliphate, and elsewhere in the Middle East and beyond, such as Africa and Asia. The Islamic State affiliates who are continuing their attacks show that the organization has not abandoned the fight to achieve its objectives – even without the physical control of territory.

 

e. The potential of a pool of thousands of Islamic State fighters held by the Iraqi authorities and Kurdish forces in Syria is significant. These authorities are hard pressed to detain these operatives and investigate them in order to determine which of them are responsible for violent actions. This pool could breed ties and cooperation between the prisoners and create the foundation of future terror. This is what happened at the Camp Bucca facility in Iraq, from where the leaders of the Islamic State in Iraq emerged and established ISIS.

 

f. The war between the army of the former Soviet Union and the local mujahidin in Afghanistan, reinforced by thousands of Muslim volunteers from all over the world, produced the first and second generation “Afghan alumni” who carried out terror attacks worldwide, particularly in the West, after several years had passed. There has been an absence of intensive terror activity in Western cities until now. The relative quiet enjoyed in this initial stage following the military defeat of the Islamic State and its expulsion from territories it controlled in Syria and Iraq is no guarantee that terror from “Syrian alumni” will not return to the West.

 

g. The Salafi jihadist ideology and the modus operandi represented by the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and their affiliates continue to inspire terrorists, whether they are directly or indirectly linked to them, or see them as a model for imitation. The attack in Sri Lanka, a country from where only a few dozen individuals went to fight in Syria, sparks the fear that such incidents could and probably will occur almost anywhere in the world, even if only a “minority” of their citizens went to fight. A small group of experienced activists, together with local partners, are able to carry out the most murderous attacks, such as the one in Sri Lanka.

 

h.Notwithstanding the decline in global suicide terror bombings, the majority of which in recent years were the work of Salafi jihadist organizations, above all the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, it remains the most lethal type of operation. Thus in the first quarter of 2019 there were about 45 suicide bombings in 17 countries, killing about 478 people and wounding around 851 others. This represents a decline of about 50 percent relative to the same period last year. Over the years 2016-2018, there has been a steady drop in the number of suicide bombings: in 2016 there were about 470 bombings, in 2017 about 349, and in 2018 there were about 293 bombings (read the full report).

 

i. It is vital to strengthen operational cooperation and intelligence sharing between and within countries. The publicly announced assistance currently provided by the secret services of the United States, Britain, India, Australia, and Morocco is almost certainly supported by assistance from other countries.

 

The outcomes of the local investigation in Sri Lanka and the international cooperation will reveal further details about the methods used by the group behind the attacks and their ties with the Islamic State and its supporters. These details and the lessons of this incident, if properly learned, will help prevent or obstruct future terror plans of the Islamic State and its supporters – plans that are expected to challenge many countries in the years to come.

 

Thanks to Dana Kanarik, intern in the INSS Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict Research Program, with responsible for the Asian sector, and to Aviad Mendelboim, research assistant in the program, for their help in preparing this paper.

 

About Author: Yoram Schweitzer, an expert on international terrorism and head of the INSS Program on Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict, has been a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), one of the top Islaatis think tanks on defence studies.

'Sri Lanka set to bounce back after Easter trauma' 

Head table, from left Sanath Ukwatte, Kishu Gomes, Brig. Sumith Atapattu, Harith Perera. (Pic by Dharamasena Welipitiya)

By Steve A. Morrell-May 10, 2019, 12:00 pm

'Countries worldwide have not been spared the trauma of terrorism. Around 139 ISIS attacks were carried out over the past few years, including the US tragedy of 9 / 11. Similarly, France, Germany, Canada, Bali, India, Thailand, Egypt, were also attacked, where some 6,400 people were reported killed. These countries have bounced back. Similarly Sri Lanka too would recover.'

The Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau (SLTPB) convened a well attended press conference recently and the above were some of the sentiments expressed by it.

Hoteliers, tour operators, high powered security personnel, PR agencies, electronic and print media were present to glean necessary information and assess needs for the future to normalize the tourism industry.

Chairman, SLTPB Kishu Gomes describing the Easter Sunday tragedy said among 243 dead 42 were foreigners; over 500 others were reported injured.

'Although these tragic events resulted in trauma to families and other sections the expectations are that within a few months the position would be normalized. Tourists would again visit the island confident of safety, Sri Lanka Inward Tour Operators (SLITO) president Harith Perera said.

He conceded that the immediate repercussions took the form of tourists withdrawing their visit itinerary to Sri Lanka and loss of revenue to the tune of $ 1.5 billion.

The Bureau met to coordinate damage- control which included the Hotels Association of Sri Lanka, the defense services, Sri Lanka inbound tour operators and others. He confirmed up to April this year around 180,000 tourists visited the island. But post Easter Sunday the number reduced drastically.

Some 4300 tourists were registered daily before Easter Sunday, this figure dropped to 1300.

Gomes said the Bureau was continuing with its plans to hold scheduled events for the year. For example, the Tuk Tuk races, surfing competitions on the east coast, Golf competitions including other major events planned earlier during the year.

He was thankful for the assistance from about 30 global media organizations who pledged their support. He also made special mention of the PR and Ad agency JWT volunteering their support.

'The security position would have to be strengthened to ensure a return to normalcy as quickly as possible, Gomes added.

Present at the head table were also president, The Hotels Association of Sri Lanka (THASL), Sanath Ukwatte, Brigadier Sumith Atapattu and Harith Perera.

Brigadier Atapattu said action taken resulted in island wide search operations. 'Such operations resulted in 70 to 80 % success. Some terrorists on being confronted committed suicide. 15,000 troops were deployed for search operations. There are sufficient personnel to deal with any future contingencies, he said.

Sanath Ukwatte said this is the first time tourists and tourist hotels were targeted. The hotel sector has some 500,000 employees. Those dependent on the sector were assessed at around 2 million. He confirmed the sector would not lay off those in employment but also said their take – home pay packet could be affected because of limited guest occupation, resulting in a low service charge.

In these times of stress Ukwatte suggested tax relief and bank concessions. However, the sector would depend on intense security to bring back foreign visitors. He agreed many countries had imposed travel bans on Sri Lanka. Action taken by the SLTPB to defuse the current position was noted with appreciation.

Instilling hatred and fear – foundations for political power

“Culture of fear (or climate of fear) is the concept that people may incite fear in the general public to achieve political or workplace goals through emotional bias.” (American sociologist Barry Glassner)

Saturday, 11 May 2019

Fear is in the air, and fear is surging. Sri Lankans are more afraid today than they have been in a long time. A majority of Sri Lankans, whatever their ethnicity may be, are worried about being victims of terrorism and crime, numbers that have surged over the past couple of years to highs not seen for more than a decade.

Every week seems to bring a new large or small-scale terrorist attack. Mass attacks form a constant drumbeat and a sense of disorder is constant.

This is what has been engineered by those whose lust for power and their confederates: Intense, insatiable desire to attain power and control, is unquenchable accompanied by mass destruction of life and property for personal gains.

They paint a fearful picture – instilling pseudo-fear and panic among every household in order that they may not send their children to school.

Shoppers are reluctant to enter markets, supermarkets, and shopping centres because psychologically they have been brainwashed – they fear crime and terror; they are also disproportionately warned to be wary of foreign influence – causing further anxiety.

Even during the 30-year war in spite of the heartrending Kokilai-Nayaru attacks, the Central Bank, Pettah bomb blasts, attacks on the Dalada Maligawa and Mahabodi by the LTTE together with the Kattankudy Mosque massacre, including the massacre of women and children in both Kattankudy and Eravur,  orchestrated by Karuna Amman – Vinayagamurthi Muralitharan, who was appointed to the post of Sri Lanka Deputy Minister by the Rajapaksa Government,  and a host of other terrorist attacks involving the deliberate use of violence against civilians – the then Government did not instil fear; but on the contrary, inspired confidence in our security system and hence people went about with their normal activities.

Today insult upon insult is rained on the security services by those craving to get back into the driving seat when our current security and intelligent services have been doing a wonderful, superb and an excellent job in containing and controlling this organised terror, at the risk of their lives. And we the people of Sri Lanka are indeed thankful and grateful for their altruistic and unselfish concern for the welfare of others.

We wholeheartedly salute them.

So, instead of lavishly showering accolades, the power-hungry, clumsy politicians are strutting about ruffling their borrowed feathers and falsely accusing our own security forces of incompetency.

An investigation and analysis of all these brings us to the conclusion that we are being cornered into a fear-based leadership – using fear to gain power. And using this fear and panic to have a negative economic effect globally.

Leading the masses by fear puts them in a constant state of anxiety and this fear-based leadership can often have origins traced back to a leader’s own lack of self-confidence.

When these people seek out public office this becomes a problem, because those who use power to assuage their own fear, also use fear against others to bolster and maintain their power, which certainly will have a negative, destructive effect.

The incumbent Government was doing very well on the side of the economy: the Government initiated the theme ‘Enterprise Sri Lanka’. Under this theme, Government had planned its production economy in order to achieve the Government’s medium-term targets such as per capita income of $ 5,000, one million new jobs, doubling exports, more than 5% continuous GDP growth etc. It also launched ‘Gamperaliya’ – the rapid rural development project for the welfare of all concerned.

It is also pertinent to quote that almost 10 years after the end of its civil war, Sri Lanka was named the best country in the world to visit in 2019 by the internationally renowned Lonely Planet publisher of a large travel guide book.

However, envious, covetous, greedy, acquisitive, avaricious power crazed, deranged politicians plotted to destroy the good name of Sri Lanka by hitting at the core of our economy – our tourist trade.

Some of those in power and those vying for power, consciously or unconsciously created fear in others by orchestrating and supporting terrorist organisations. At inception they did it by acts of sarcasm, shaming, bullying, physical intimidation, and culminating in perpetrating actual ethnic violence.

So we now have a budding totalitarian regime that keeps everyone in fear and working to avoid doing anything that would put oneself at risk. The people now fear that they could be taken into custody arbitrarily. Arrests of citizens can be unpredictable and capricious, and enough to encourage everyone to keep their heads down, their mouths shut, and willing to engage in or overlook otherwise inhumane or delusional behaviour. This is what Hitlers of the world are hoping for.

Generally speaking, times of social unrest have always been the feeding ground for power-hungry megalomaniacs. Periods of economic depression, political or social chaos give tyrants the opportunity to appear as saviours and, when conditions allow it, seize power by coup d’état or other means. Their populist demagoguery can seduce broad swathes of the population.

They are extremely talented at inflaming the ‘wish to believe’. Their cries of patriotism and righteousness are just what the populace wants to hear. As expert manipulators, despotic dictators take advantage of this universal cognitive shortcut.

These are the dictators who are also especially good at targeting socially and economically vulnerable people – those who are not always very well educated or informed and, as such, often feel confused and insecure. Dictators exploit the rage and frustration of this population through the psychological process of ‘identification with the aggressor’. Many of the disempowered see in the ‘strong’ man or woman both a reflection of themselves and the promise of a victory over their downtrodden state.

They are caught in the allure of illusions and magical thinking. They become brainwashed. Whatever the societal wrong, dictators are adept at inciting blame and scapegoating.Those dictators who lust for power quickly learn the value of indoctrination. To maintain their hold on power, they seek to control information, ideally by centralising all mainstream media. Positive news is attributed to them and negative news is ascribed to enemies of the state. With the help of the propaganda machine, dictators become an integral part of everyone’s life. They manipulate the final outcome of elections, by curtailing press freedom, limiting the opposition’s ability to campaign and spreading misinformation – ‘fake news’.

Many past and contemporary dictators suffer from extraordinarily high levels of narcissism, psychopathy and paranoia. They have an inflated sense of self-importance and feel entitled to the admiration of others. An inherent lack of empathy, guilt or remorse allows the most malignant to commit unspeakable atrocities.

But while it is easy to vilify dictators, we should also realise that, in many ways, we (the people) are the ones enabling them. After all, a dictator cannot function without followers. Although we may not admit it out loud, it’s attractive to have others tell us what’s right and what’s wrong. But abdicating personal responsibility cripples freedom of expression and derails democratic processes. The good news is, however, that although we enable dictators, we can also disable them.Concluding with guidance in this month of Vesak from Lord Buddha: “Being a ruler requires clear understanding: study the past and present, know when to be active and passive, temper force with mercy, be kind to one’s subordinates, benefit the people, and give equally.”

“Change is never painful, only the resistance to change is painful.”

Maintaining peace: Lessons from the Qur’an

Islam always held high the olive branch to peace-lovers

At the very inception, the prophet enunciated the principle of tolerance

11 May 2019

The Easter Sunday bombings came as a rude shock to me. When the news broke out that fateful Sunday morning that churches were being bombed, I found it hard to believe. My family was horrified. What manner of barbarians would take innocent lives and that too in a place of religious worship?

I could not believe anybody could have done this in the name of religion, some criminals or hate cult maybe, but certainly not in the name of a peace-loving religion. That night, I was toying with the idea whether it could be the work of the drug mafia since it was in their interest to deflect the predicament they were in by creating a new enemy for the nation.

Then came the next phase of the shock, and as the events unfolded it was still harder to believe, that the sacrilege had been committed not by drug lords but in the name of my beautiful faith. The misguided people who committed it had been so arrogant in their views that they had not even bothered to read the Qur’an. To recite maybe, but certainly not to understand it, for had they, they would have realised that what they had done was not in keeping with what the Qur’an teaches us, but the very opposite.

This brings us to a matter of vital importance, which is understanding the Qur’an. How can we expect people of other faiths to understand what we believe to be God’s final revelation when we don’t understand it ourselves? But that is the pathetic situation we are in. God chose to reveal the Qur’an in a human language just as He did His previous revelations. He did not reveal it as a meaningless liturgy of chants or mantras, but as a meaningful revelation for all time and all people, containing words of wisdom, a code of law, rules of engagement, stories of inspiration from the lives of the prophets and records of His all-encompassing mercy from the time He created man and in operation throughout history as reflected in nature, the love we have for one another and even in the manner He checks one superpower by another so that the balance is maintained and limits are not transgressed:

Had not God checked one set of people by means of another, there would have surely been pulled down monasteries, churches, synagogues and mosques in which the name of God is remembered abundantly would have been demolished. God will certainly aid those who aid (His Cause)

How can we expect people of other faiths to understand what we believe to be God’s final revelation when we don’t understand it ourselves? But that is the pathetic situation we are in 

(The Pilgrimage: 40) 
So there you are. The Qur’an is clear that places of religious worship are to be protected and this protection is an obligation of Muslims. In fact, He Himself would ensure our religious places are protected by intervening if needs be by raising nations against others so that our religious freedom is maintained.

Freedom of faith 
The Qur’an is very clear that there can be no compulsion in Islam. Those who embrace it must do so of their own free will. There are no less than seven verses of the Qur’an that say so, such as the following:
Let there be no compulsion in religion. Truth stands out clear from error

Then came the next phase of the shock, and as the events unfolded it was still harder to believe, that the sacrilege had been committed not by drug lords but in the name of my beautiful faith

(The Heifer: 256) 
That’s not all, God impresses it on us in the following vein so we understand it better:
If it had been the Lord’s will, they would all have believed-
 All who are on earth! Wilt thou then compel mankind,
 against their will, to believe?

(Jonah: 99) 
As Muslims, we are not supposed to curse, but pray for the guidance of all humanity so that we all become one in faith. As the Qur’an beautifully puts it:
God is our Lord and your Lord. For us our deeds and to you yours. Between us and you let there be no strife. God will bring us together. And to Him shall we return

(The Consultation: 15) 
In fact, Islam explicitly allowed Muslims to maintain good relations and treat those of other faiths on equal terms. All it prohibited was having relations with those who sought to imperil the faith or harm the community by acts of aggression:

God forbids you not, regarding those who fight you not for faith, nor drive you out of your homes, from dealing kindly and justly with them, for God loves those who are just. God only forbids you only regarding those who have fought you for your faith, and driven you from your homes, and have supported (others) in driving you out, that you should take them for friends;

(The Examiner: 8-9) 
That’s not all. It called for interfaith dialogue with those of other scriptures to reach a common ground and to understand one another better:

Say: “O People of the Book! Come to common terms as between us and you. That we worship none but God, that we associate no partners with Him, that we erect not from among ourselves lords and patrons other than God.”

(Family Imraan: 64) 
This is why you will find it was always the Muslims who reached out to the West, such as when Caliph Haroun Al Rashid sent his emissaries to the Holy Roman Emperor Charlemagne to build good relations between Frank and Arab, Christian and Muslim, West and East and presented to him the keys to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem which lay in the Caliph’s extensive domains, thus recognising the Christian claim to the church. When the West engaged with Islam, it was very often with the sword as we saw during the Crusades. Even then, Muslim leaders always sought peace, offering the foe favourable terms as Saladin did to the Crusaders of his day.

In spite of all those verses of the Qur’an that speak of tolerance, there are detractors who refer to what they call the Verse of the Sword:

Fight and slay the Pagans wherever ye find them: seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem (of war). But if they repent and establish regular prayer and practise regular charity, then open the way for them, for God is Oft-Forgiving, Most Merciful 

(The Repentance:5) 
They argue this verse called for the death of unbelievers, taking it completely out of context. Why, because for one thing it referred to the idolaters of Meccawho were sworn enemies of the faith and had done everything in their power to destroy it, including killing its more helpless followers like slave girl Sumayya who became the first martyr in Islam. For another, the verse in question has to be read in conjunction with what precedes and follows it. So let’s see what precedes it:

(The treaties) are not dissolved with those Pagans with whom you have entered into alliance, and who have not failed you nor aided anyone against you. So, fulfil your engagements with them to the end of their term, for God loves the righteous

(The Repentance: 4) 
So here we are told that those Pagans with whom the Muslims have a treaty and who had not aided their enemies against them are not to be harmed. So now let’s see what follows the so-called verse of the sword:

If any amongst the Pagans ask thee for asylum, grant it so that he may hear the word of God and then escort him to where he can be secure

God is our Lord and your Lord. For us our deeds and to you yours. Between us and you let there be no strife. God will bring us together. And to Him shall we return

(The Repentance: 6) 
Here we are told that when the Pagans ask for asylum they are to be given it to learn about Islam and escorted back in safety if they did not wish to embrace it. But that’s not all. The following verse commands Muslims to stand true to them so long as they stand true to the Muslims by not betraying or oppressing them:
As long as they (Pagans with whom ye have made treaty) stand true to you, stand ye true to them, for God loves the righteous

(The Repentance: 7) 
Thus, verses such as this are actually contextual, revealed at a time when the Pagan enemies of Islam were all out to annihilate the new faith and were revealed only as a means of accommodating a war situation. Even then, in subsequent verses, tolerance, security and protection of non-believers are stressed. Further, these verses can come nowhere near those verses that speak of tolerance of others and which are not contextual, but perpetual.

In spite of having to face all this oppression in its earliest days, and even in later times such as in the dark days of the Crusades, Islam never believed in the kind of harshness that today’s terrorists fighting in its name have done

The Prophet’s Example 
The prophet made it clear that Islam was to be marked by its tolerance of other faiths. This tolerance was exemplified in his own lifetime, such as when he entered into a treaty with the Christians of Najran in Southern  Arabia. When the delegation arrived at Medina, the prophet let them lodge and even pray in his mosque and gave them the following accord:
The people of Najran and their dependants shall remain under the protection of God, and Muhammad the Prophet, the Messenger of God. Their persons, their religion, their lands, their possessions and their churches shall remain safe. This treaty holds good for all people of Najran, whether present or not. No bishop shall be removed from his bishopric, no monk from his monasticism and no devotee from his devotions (Tabaqat Al Kubra of Ibn Sa’d)

The prophet also made it very clear that whoever killed a Dhimmi (non-Muslim citizen of the State) would be liable for worldly punishment. Once when a Muslim had killed a Dhimmi, the prophet promptly ordered his execution saying “I am responsible for obtaining redress for the weak ones” (Nayl Al Awtar, Shawkani). That’s not all. He also assured us that the perpetrators would be punished in the hereafter as well:

Whoever kills a Muahid (A Dhimmi or Non-Muslim under the protection of a Muslim State) shall not smell the fragrance of paradise though its fragrance can be smelt at a distance of forty years (of travel) (Saheeh Al-Bukhari). 

Since the protection of the Dhimmis is a religious duty, Muslims are bound to treat them well, and protect their blood, property and honour. In fact, the persecution of non-Muslims in an Islamic State has long been considered by Muslim jurists as a crime even more heinous than the persecution of Muslims by non-Muslims. This is precisely why Caliph Umar, when on his deathbed, exhorted his successor to treat the Dhimmis as the Messenger of God treated them, so that their life and property should be defended even if it meant going to war (with oppressors) (Kitab al Kharaj).

Thus, at the very inception of Islam, the prophet enunciated the principle of tolerance which is remarkable for a faith that in its nascent stages faced so much intolerance that its adherents had to migrate to save themselves from persecution and in some instances even attain martyrdom for the sake of their faith. Who after all can forget the sufferings of Bilal the slave who was forced to lie in the hot sands of Arabia and whipped mercilessly to force him to revoke his faith and the martyrdom of Sumayya when her master impaled her with his spear; who can forget the sufferings of Prophet Muhammad whom they scorned and stoned and placed animal entrails upon before finally plotting to do away with his life?

In spite of having to face all this oppression in its earliest days, and even in later times such as in the dark days of the Crusades, Islam never believed in the kind of harshness that today’s terrorists fighting in its name have done. Rather, it always stood for peace and held high the olive branch to all those who wished for peace.
The writer is Vice President – Outreach, Centre for Islamic Studies, Sri  Lanka 

Conundrum: Caliphate & Killing Spree!  

By Mohamed SR. Nisthar –MAY 11, 2019

Mohamed SR. Nisthar

The brief is not a sermon, but an informal pathological analysis of some sick people of the Muslim society and its Ullema (Scholars /intellectuals). The Easter tragedy on 21st April 2019 reached the all inhabited parts of the planet earth very quickly and made mentally healthy humans sad. The sad news has also reached the astronauts in the space station, who work very hard to do some good things for the same humans. I’m pretty sure if any one of these space scientists (Ullema) is a believer, he would have said “thank God”, these guys cannot reach us. Before I take you further to the Caliphate and Ullema saga, I would like to confess first.

I’m a practising Muslim: believing in one God, uttering the word of that belief and put that utterance into action in day to day life: the keeping of five obligatory daily worships with extra worships to gain more rewards (mental satisfaction); observing the fast in the month of Ramadan, with extr-a fast whenever I feel the need for a mental boost ( that is the reason my younger sister calls me fasting champion of the family from childhood); paying compulsory alms tax during the month of Ramadan ( our lunar based Islamic calendar goes 11 days ahead of the Solar based calendar every year) and voluntary charity whenever possible ,( with an extra voluntary small monthly contribution to local mosque for them to make their ends meet) and pilgrimage to Mecca on Hajj . So this is 25% of Islam, the rituals. Then what is the remaining 75% of Islam, establishing the “Caliphate”?, an interesting question emerges

The remaining 75% of Islam is what you all do, the other religious people, atheists, agonistics, humanists and the list goes on and on. So do I. I’m more than satisfied that I’m a committed Muslim.

Very recently I watched a university gathering of Muslim students (male/female) in the UK. The session was arranged for two speeches, Q&A by UK Ullema. The topic, guess what? “Caliphate”. The respected Aalim (scholar) Akram Nadvi along with his fellow Aalim Mufti Abu Layth were to address the questions.

At one point Mr. Akram Nadvi told the student “alright, we’ll do a quick case study/reality check here and we’ll hypothetically give Justin Trudeau’s Canada or Theresa May’s UK to the party who want to establish a worldwide Caliphate for a month to see how they would perform”. And in the end both the Ullema shook their heads. I don’t want to paraphrase what was said by those Ullema, but I’ll explain it in my own way for you to understand.

Say London was handed over to a group of Caliphate lovers (jihadists)

First day they enter the city chanting the Arabic words “Allahu Akkbar” (God is great- at least all religious people know that God is great, otherwise there is no point in praising. But praising in Arabic I cannot get my head around. Because I strongly believe that the God’s language is not Arabic, but science and my Jewish cousin Einstein understood that languages very well and nicely interpreted it as “ every action has its positive or negative reaction” through nature’s relativity and or gravity set up in one of the human languages. All the human languages Sumerian, Latin, Greek, Hebrew, Sanskrit, Pali, Aramaic, Arabic, Sinhalese, Tamil and current leading world langue English is a medium of the language of the nature with developed alphabets and phonetics.)

First day was fine because that the jihadists were busy taking an inventory of London. Details of Mosques, Churches, Synagogues, Gurduwaras, Temples, Kovils , Cinemas, Restaurants, Night clubs, Recreational clubs etc. Second day morning all inhabitants of London were in confusion as they happened to hear call for the early morning prayer through loudspeakers. But they did not bother themselves about it. They were preparing for their daily routine life. The problem started, when the jihadists started killing all the men who did not attend the Fajir (early morning) prayer.

Women and children were frightened. But one brave young woman stood up and told the Amir (ruler/leader) of the Caliphate, you killed my husband for no reasons and by that you made my children and me destitute, my dear husband was the only breadwinner in the family.

Your husband did not come to Mosque and pray the way I pray. So the law is breached, thus the punishment is death, the Amir said. We’re not Muslims therefore we cannot be expected in the Mosque for worship, the woman replied. Then you all are Kuffars (infidels), subject to be killed, the Amir said.

A brave Muslim woman got up and challenged the Amir. Oh! Amir, you are making a blunder here . Caliphate is not Friday or Sunday religious school or abattoir. It was a type of governing entity of a society for maintaining social justice, based upon economic fairness and law and order to oversee them. You killed my friend’s husband illegally and made them not able to feed themselves.

So, you’re wilfully supporting an infidel and it’s treason, both of you should face the death penalty. The brave Muslim woman didn’t stop. Amir! you have no right to take innocent lives. No matter if you are an Amir, King, President or Gangster. My God confirms that no one is given authority over anyone’s life. Life has sanctity. I don’t see any difference between my friend’s soul, my soul and your soul. But one thing is certain here that your soul is rotten compared to ours. She was silenced and taken to the jail room.

The small boy of the Muslim woman rose and said, Amir! you are going to kill my mother’s friend because she said you killed my friend’s father and they have nothing left and my mother because she spoke the truth. If you kill them I cannot look after my small sister. I’m only 13 and have not sat for my GCSEs now. I don’t know how to find money to buy provisions for my sister, my friend and me.

You do not need to study and do exams; purpose of life is to prepare for the next life. Your next life will be very good in the Heaven if you obey the order of the Caliphate. Your next life will be in Hell if you disobey. Amir!, I learnt in the holy Qur-an that learning is obligatory for men and women. And my Prophet says if the knowledge is in the eyes of a lion go for it. Even the knowledge is in faraway China make a first step towards China.

Young man you don’t understand what was meant by “learning”, it means how to pray, where to make Hijra ( migration/ seeking protection), how to prepare for jihad (holy war) , how to establish Khilaafa (Caliphate) and how quickly to get admitted to Heaven, where 72 virgins await you. Do a small job and get ready for this earthly life. I can’t do any job. I’m small and feeble., The boy was adamant.

So, are you suggesting stealing, young man? The Amir asked. Stealing is a crime punishable by chopping off your hands. The Amir confirmed.

Hearing the orders of the Amir a young girl rose with full of energy. Amir! You are going to kill my mother’s friend on what charge? Possible intention of prostitution to find money, because she lost her husband for his transgression, and punishment is death by stoning, Amir yelled. Your Muslim mother supporting her infidel friend has committed treason, we’ll slit her throat in public on Friday as a deterrent to other treacherous people.

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Nourishing the newborns

Dr. B. J. C. Perera-Friday, May 10, 2019

Breastfeeding is the ideal form of initial nourishment

Very young babies are totally dependent on the parents, particularly the mother for the provision of adequate nutrition in the first year of life. It is now firmly established that exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months of life is the ideal form of initial nourishment. This implies that only breast milk should be given and nothing else.

Mother’s milk

Mother’s milk is the Golden Elixir that fulfils all the nutritional needs of a baby, right up to six months. Even additional water is not necessary. In addition, vitamins and western medicines are only permitted. A majority of babies grow very well and thrive beautifully just on mother’s milk. It is definitely the first step in the right direction to produce a healthy populace in our country.
In any normal individual, the highest rate of growth after birth, in physical proportions as well as in the growth of organs and intellectual development is found in the first two years of life.

Proportionately, this is even more than the growth in the pubertal growth phase of adolescence. The first two-year growth segment is especially significant and vital for brain growth. Many essential nutrients should be provided at this important stage in the life of an individual and additional foods need to be supplied in optimal quantities to the baby right throughout this rapid growth segment of life. Thus, infant feeding is a very important component of childrearing. It must, however, be stressed that all necessary ingredients for normal growth can be provided by natural foods and extra fancy articles of food are not generally necessary. This is particularly true of commercially available processed foods. Such items are not essential for adequate growth. Yet, for all that, some of them have the advantage of being so easy and convenient to prepare for the baby. This may be quite useful for some working mothers.

Extra nutrition

However, it is quite necessary to point out that after the first six months, breast milk alone cannot provide sufficient quantities of all necessary nutrients to the baby. There are advantages of continuing breastfeeding for even up to two years, but other foods have to be gradually introduced around six months of age. The baby needs extra nutrition and other foods from this age onwards. The selection of proper articles of food is of seminal importance for this age group. These foods should be well-balanced, nutritious, palatable and energy-dense. The old practice of giving the baby watery or thin rice congee water (kenda watura) does not suffice at all as the energy level of congee water is quite low. Complementary feeding should be started with mashed over-cooked rice mixed with vegetables and other articles of proteins and fats. The real requirement is to provide an energy-dense, appropriately mixed and palatable nutritious diet to the baby after the initial period of exclusive breastfeeding.

The period of five to eight months is also important as it is the time during which the baby learns to chew and swallow semi-solids and solids. Although newborn babies are born with a well-developed swallowing reflex, they have to subsequently learn to chew and swallow. Adequate stimulation of this process is vital to ensure that the baby develops the ability to ingest semi-solid and solid foods as well as to develop a liking for different types of foods.

Balanced diet

The addition of newer and extra foods after the sixth month should be based on a balanced diet. Such a diet should supply adequate amounts of calories, proteins, carbohydrates, fats, vitamins and minerals. All new articles of food need to be introduced only gradually so that the baby gets used to them and develops a liking for them. Around this time, natural fruit juices and soft fruits too could be introduced.

As the baby gets used to more solid foods, vegetables, lentils, fish, egg, meats and oil could also be incorporated into this mixture. There is no scientific truth in the notion that eggs should not be given before the first year. Evidence from scientific studies has confirmed the notion that the addition of eggs early does not lead to an increase in the incidence of allergies, as was thought earlier.

The trick is to gradually make the preparation of foods more and more solid, so that the baby learns to chew and swallow. The consistency of the mashed up mixture is gradually changed over weeks of time so that in time to come the baby gets used to eat solid food.

The ultimate goal is to get the baby to eat most of the articles of an adult diet by the time he or she is one-year-old. It is particularly important to add fish quite early as it provides some essential ingredients for brain growth.

Different ways of preparing food and the addition of different articles of food will lead to the baby developing a taste for many different foods. It would prevent him or her getting bored by the same old thing being given day in and day out. Variety is the spice of life, even for little babies. Most importantly, then it is totally unnecessary to cook separately for the baby. The food that is cooked for other family members could be usefully employed to provide balanced nutrition for the baby too. Even vitamins and minerals in adequate quantities could be provided by such articles of food that are used day in and day out in a normal diet.

Commercially available baby foods

Parents of today are bombarded by a variety of commercially available proprietary baby foods in packets, jars and bottles. The marketing efforts that have gone into some of these advertisements of commercial preparations are totally unbelievable. We cannot blame the commercial establishments concerned with the manufacture and distribution of these preparations. After all, it is their ‘bread and butter’. There are subtle advertisements for these products depicting bonny babies and happy parents.
Many virtues are extolled and the inclusion of all kinds of factors and compounds that are supposed to increase the growth of organs, especially the brain, are used by interested parties to convince mothers that these foods are superior.

However, it must be categorically stated that there is no ‘growth factor’ or an essential nutrient that is added to these foods that cannot be provided by natural articles of foods available in all homes. True enough, the convenience of packaged pre-cooked food is attractive for busy people, but it must also be realised that there are many food additives that are used to preserve the shelf life of these products.
Currently, there are concerns all over the world on the long-term effects of these substances on growing children.

The saddest thing is that even non-working mothers who are there with the baby at home tend to use these foods for their babies. There is no scientific evidence that any of these proprietary and synthetic foods are that much better or for that matter, any better than natural foods.

Sweetening food and salt

The current recommendation that is advocated especially by the Sri Lanka College of Paediatricians is to try and avoid sweetening foods and drinks by adding sugar.

There is a growing problem of being over-weight and obese in children and sweetening food is just one cause for this problem. Sugar may provide some calories, but is not an essential ingredient in a child’s diet. In addition, excessive consumption of sugar in the early years of life predisposes to dental problems as well. Another common article of food that is not necessary for very young babies is salt. There is accumulating evidence that salt intake in early life is probably linked to the development of high blood pressure and heart problems in later life.

The Sri Lanka College of Paediatricians specifically requests parents to avoid adding salt to the diet of young children. Tea and coffee too are perhaps best avoided during the first year as some of the chemical ingredients in these beverages have some stimulant properties.

Apart from these, there are no other restrictions on natural foods for the baby, but many synthetic foods with all kinds of food additives and colourings are perhaps best avoided during this stage of life. Babies generally do not like chillies, pepper and spicy food because of their irritant effects on the tender lining of the mouth and throat.

However, there is no evidence that these are nutritionally harmful to the baby or that they lead to long-term problems such as gastric and liver disorders. If the baby likes these articles, there is no reason to avoid giving them to him or her.

Artificial formula milk

Many believe that it is essential to provide the baby with some artificial formula milk after the first six months.

This is not absolutely or invariably so. If other articles of food are gradually introduced and the baby is breastfed, there is no real reason to introduce these proprietary milk foods, even up to the end of the first year.

All types of formula milk are made from cow's milk and are not primarily designed for humans. However, if it is convenient and affordable, there is no absolute embargo on the use of these kinds of milk for the baby in the second six months of life.

This is particularly relevant to families with working mothers. Affordability is particularly relevant in view of the escalating costs of milk powders in modern society. Unfortunately, there are parents from middle-income surroundings who spend over Rs. 5,000 a month for expensive artificial milk preparations for their children.

Feeding a baby in the first year should not be a big hassle. It should be an enjoyable experience for both the giver and the receiver.

A majority of babies enjoy meal times. In fact, it is absolutely essential to make it a pleasurable experience to be looked forward to by a baby. However, it is a crying shame that some unnecessarily forceful practices of shoving food down the throats of babies and children have made meal times a real hassle and a source of annoyance and distress for children.

All it needs is some common sense, prudent selection of natural foods and a little bit of extra effort.
By the end of the first year, the baby should be joining the rest of the family at the table during all meal times.

There are many misconceptions, false beliefs and common folklore statements that are presented to mothers. The widespread practice of describing some foods as ‘heaty’ and others as ‘cooling’ does not have any scientific basis. Such ideas have led to unnecessary restrictions being placed on the provision of some useful natural foods to the baby. It is worth reiterating that all children would grow up like flowers provided the basic forms of nutrition are made available to them.

(Dr. B. J. C. Perera, MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin), FRCP(Lon), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL), is Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow, Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, Colombo University; Joint Editor; Founder Chairman, Sri Lanka Forum of Medical Editors, 2016; Past President, Colombo Medical School Alumni Association (CoMSAA) – 2015; Past President, Sri Lanka Medical Association (SLMA) (2013); and Founder President, Sri Lanka College of Paediatricians (1996-1997))

Suicide bombing hits market in east Baghdad

Deadly blast rocks Jamila market in Sadr City district of Iraqi capital, local news outlets reported

Aftermath of blast in Sadr City in June 2018 (Reuters/File photo)

By MEE staff- 9 May 2019 

A bombing rocked a marketplace in east Baghdad, causing an unspecified number of deaths and injuries, local media outlets reported.

The blast hit Jamila market in the Sadr City district of the Iraqi capital on Thursday evening after iftar, the sunset meal during the holy month of Ramadan.

The Baghdad Operations Command said the explosion caused deaths and injuries, but it did not provide an exact number of casualties.

Citing a security official, AFP news agency reported that eight people were killed and 15 others were injured in the blast.

MEE could not independently verify those figures.

The Islamic State (IS) group claimed responsibility for the attack late on Thursday, saying that the suicide bomber killed eight people.

In previous years, militants have regularly targeted crowded areas of the Iraqi capital at night during Ramadan.

Last year, a suicide bombing killed seven people at a park in Baghdad during the holy month, and in 2017, two blasts left 35 people dead in a single evening in the west of the city.

Is the Middle East on the brink of a major showdown?

Read More »

The Iraqi authorities have been battling IS for several years.

Last year, Iraqi forces drove the militants out of large swathes of territory, where IS fighters had gained control after a widescale offensive in 2014.

IS has since lost those areas after an international coalition fought the group in both Iraq and Syria.

In a video message released last week, IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi urged his followers to continue carrying out suicide bombings, as the group employs new tactics in the wake of its territorial defeats.

Venezuela’s Exile Economy

In Colombia, refugees are changing how cities work.

 

Venezuelans cross improvised walkways over the border at the Táchira River, between Cúcuta, Colombia, and San Antonio Del Táchira, Venezuela, on March 18. Some are refugees fleeing the country, others go to retrieve supplies that are scarce in Venezuela as a result of the ongoing political and economic crisis. 

BY AFSIN YURDAKUL-MAY 9, 2019, 2:13 PM

, Colombia—Génesis Sanchez barely survived her first pregnancy. After arriving at the local hospital in her hometown of Valencia, Venezuela, the 28-year-old had been deemed in high-risk condition. The doctors decided she needed a cesarean section, but the clinic was ill equipped to do the surgery. They told her to go to the capital, Caracas. By that point, her labor pains had accelerated too much for her to travel. The family quarreled with the doctors and appealed to friends and relatives to raise money to buy the medical supplies needed to conduct the surgery. After pushing her family to sign a document acknowledging that the family would bear responsibility should Sanchez lose her life, the procedure began. And that is how baby Gabriel came into the world three years ago.

“The crisis was underway, and the government didn’t help us with medical assistance,” Sanchez, now 31, told me in March, referring to the shortages that paralyzed her home country. Last summer, when she was a few months pregnant with her second child and began to experience complications again, she became worried about her well-being. “I told my husband I wouldn’t go through the same situation I had with my first son,” she said. “We came here [to Cúcuta, Colombia].” With little money to finance their trip, the family sold a fan they owned and used the little savings they had to seek a new life in neighboring Colombia.

The lack of health care was just one of the problems Sanchez’s family hoped to leave behind. Since 2015, Venezuela has been mired in a political and economic crisis that has caused inflation rates to soar, rendered its currency worthless, and caused severe shortages of food and other basic supplies. About 3.4 million Venezuelans have fled, and more would surely join them if they could.

Sanchez recalls children back home rummaging through the garbage for food and families surviving on cassava skin. Now, in Cúcuta, life is still hard. Her family of six, including her two children and her sister and sister’s daughter, lives in a dimly lit three-bedroom apartment shared with seven other Venezuelan migrants. Together, the 13 people can just barely scrape together the 75,000 Colombian pesos (approximately $23) in rent due each day. If someone falls behind, others try to pitch in, hoping for the same courtesy later on.

Because Sanchez takes care of the children during the day, the responsibility to earn money rests mostly on her husband, Álvaro Hernandez, who has found a niche in Cúcuta’s strange economy. Shortages in Venezuela compel its citizens to cross into Colombia for the most basic of goods, so he began to work as a porter, helping Venezuelans carry food, toilet paper, medicine, and other basic necessities back home. “Many people carry food for their own use; others carry goods that they will resell, things you can’t find in Venezuela because they are scarce: toiletries, trinkets, soap,” he explained.

For the border city of Cúcuta’s economy, the connection to Venezuela has always been crucial. Venezuelans traveled here to enjoy the variety of local and imported goods when the country was more prosperous. But the crisis changed everything: Now, more Venezuelans choose to stay.

According to Colombian migration data from March, about 176,000 Venezuelans reside in the Norte de Santander region, of which Cúcuta is the capital. And those who come and go do so out of necessity: Last year, about 35,000 people crossed into the city per day to buy basic necessities or seek medical care, then went back home.

In late February, the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shut down the three bridges that connect Cúcuta and Venezuela after U.S.-backed aid convoys tried to use them to enter Venezuela. Since then, illegal crossings through the area’s lush thickets, trails referred to as trochas, have become a lifeline both for those in need of goods and for those like Hernandez, who can make a little cash ferrying things over the border. You wouldn’t make that dangerous trip if you didn’t need to: Criminal groups lie in wait to steal what they can.

For his part, Hernandez makes two to three rounds a day, each lasting an hour or more, and he charges his customers 5,000 to 7,000 Colombian pesos (about $1.50 to $2.15) per trip. Sometimes, he barely earns enough to pay the daily rent, and the family needs to make a choice: fall behind or skip meals. They may soon find themselves going hungry even more often. As more people flee Venezuela, Hernandez faces more competition. “Those who worked on the other side, in Venezuela, they came to work on this side, so now we are many more,” he explained. “To get a trip, to work, it’s a grind.”

Sanchez’s sister, Betania Sanchez, arrived in Cúcuta in February. Back in Venezuela, she used to have a cleaning job, which earned her about $3.35 per month. It wasn’t enough to afford food and other basic needs. Betania now sells coffee and snacks near the border, and she makes an average of $6 to $9 on a good day. She tries to send money back home and chips in when her sister and brother-in-law need cash. She works long hours but is thankful that at least she’s getting by. “They think that we’re living here like a millionaire, and that’s actually what I thought [when I was in Venezuela],” she said. There are no millionaires to be found, of course, “but at least here … your effort bears fruit.”

The economic activity is also good for Cúcuta, which has seen an increase in commerce in recent years. Francisco Unda, the manager of the National Business Association’s regional branch there, explains that although migrants participate in the informal economy and send money back home, small businesses on the Colombian side of the border also profit as thousands of Venezuelans come to buy goods there. “The economic and social situation in Venezuela creates a new market, and it’s the market of essential needs,” Unda said.

In the past, when Venezuelans had a stronger currency, they purchased more expensive goods such as electronics or high-quality clothing items. Some of these were produced in Colombia, and others were imported. But the crisis drastically altered what goods are being traded—and who is benefiting. “Right now it is no longer the case,” he said. “They buy toilet paper, medicines, diapers, milk. … This is very good for small businesses on the Colombian border.”

To be sure, although increased economic activity might be beneficial for both the migrants and the locals in the near term, it could have less positive consequences in the long run. Cúcuta has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country—about 16 percent—and Venezuelans are willing to accept lower wages. Although Colombians have so far been largely receptive to their new neighbors, that could change. Estefania Colmenares, the editor in chief of the local La Opinión newspaper, explained that a lot of migrants work “in exchange for a plate of food, accommodations, or the possibility of bathing daily, instead of a salary.” And that, she said, is “shaping an odd labor market”
in Cúcuta. Local and international organizations have already begun collaborating to create job opportunities for migrants and locals in the border areas, and the United Nations Development Programme is backing some of these initiatives.

So far, Sanchez and her family are coping well enough with their new reality. But their future in Cúcuta is uncertain. “I don’t want go back to Venezuela,” she said. “Every time I call home, [they] tell me that everything is getting worse.” As she talks, the silhouettes of the hills across the border in Venezuela darken as the night falls.

Laura Pérez Sánchez and Juan Arredondo contributed reporting.

Trump’s foolish Iran policy only makes war more likely

Iran’s rulers face impossible choices as a result of unrelenting US hostility, which has one aim – regime change
 ‘Pompeo’s meetings with May and Hunt became a propaganda platform for condemning Iran … he misleadingly claimed to enjoy the UK’s full support. Hunt did not dare contradict him.’ Photograph: Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty

Simon Tisdall-Thu 9 May 2019

It is unclear what, if anything, Iran can do to induce the United States and its regional allies to halt their escalating war of attrition before it provokes all-out conflict. When Donald Trump reneged on the UN-ratified nuclear agreement with Tehran last year, he said he wanted a better deal. Iran must change its behaviour, he said, and act like a “normal country”.

This was always disingenuous. Iran’s authoritarian and abusive rulers certainly need to mend their ways. But what Trump and his imperious advisers really meant was that they must do what America says, in conformity with American interests. What they want is an end to 40 years of post-revolution defiance. What they want is regime change in Iran.

Tehran’s leadership now has three choices – capitulate, wait, or resist. Capitulation is no real option at all

Tehran’s leadership now has three choices – capitulate, wait or resist. Capitulation is no real option at all. Hassan Rouhani, the country’s moderate, conservative president, and senior allies such as the foreign minister, Javad Zarif, would not survive the sort of sweeping strategic and regional pullback required by the Americans.

The clerical establishment, led by the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rightwing fundamentalists and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards, would exploit any attempted compromise to vanquish the reformist remnants of the so-called 2009 Persian spring. In short, the mullahs would double down on repression.

If, on the other hand, the regime were to lose control in the face, say, of urban uprisings encouraged from abroad, Iran could break apart. This is a land of large ethnic minorities – principally Azeris, Arabs, Baluchis, and Kurds – as well as smaller Baha’i, Turkmen, Christian and Jewish communities. None has particular reason to love the centre.

It is unlikely that the Americans have a plan for Iran in the aftermath of a regime collapse, any more than they had a plan for Iraq in 2003. Given that disastrous precedent, John Bolton, Trump’s neocon national security adviser and an architect of the Iraq invasion, should think twice. He and other myopic machinators must be careful what they wish for.

Iran’s second option – waiting for Trump to be voted out of office next year – is fraught with difficulty. For a start, he may win a second term. It is also improbable that any Democratic successor would reverse the current policy. He or she might ease the pressure. But in the turgid present-day US political climate, letting Iran off the hook is not on the cards.

The idea that the Europeans will ride to the rescue, implicit in Rouhani’s 60-day deadline for a resuscitation of the nuclear deal, is also far-fetched. Neither Britain nor France is happy with Trump’s tactics. But their hostile reaction to Rouhani’s threat to resume some nuclear activities was cautionary. They expect Iran, not the US, to back down.

Attempts by some European Union countries over the past year to circumvent renewed American sanctions have come to nothing. The commercial reality is that they cannot protect energy companies, banks and other businesses seeking to trade with Iran from Washington’s punitive secondary sanctions. Hopes that a discredited, divided UN security council will take the US to task for breaking international law are similarly chimerical.

Even with Trump out of the picture, Iran would continue to face the visceral enmity of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Without his reactionary soulmate in the White House, it might only be a matter of time before Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, revived past threats to bomb Iran. For the House of Saud, it’s an ancient blood feud.

Iran’s last option, resistance, has a dreadful air of inevitability about it. Bolton’s announcement this week of additional, nuclear-armed military deployments in the Gulf, and secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s melodramatic dash to Baghdad in the middle of a European tour, suggested that the White House was just spoiling for a fight.

Both men cited secret intelligence about an “imminent” attack by Iran or its proxies on American forces in Syria or Iraq. Perhaps it was accurate. Perhaps not. This vague, untested information reportedly came from Israel, which is skilled at putting the wind up the Americans. Whatever the truth, it had the desired effect.

Bolton, who has a long record of manipulating intelligence (he was at it again the other day over Venezuela), used the alleged threat to warn Iran that it would be held responsible for the actions of its proxies, however loose the links, wherever they may be. That means any stray Shia militia group in Iraq, or Houthi rebel in Yemen, now potentially has the power to trigger a direct, armed assault by the US on Iran itself.

Pompeo used his theatrical dash to Baghdad to dramatise the seriousness of a crisis he has helped to manufacture. His subsequent meetings in London with Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, and foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, became a propaganda platform for condemning Iran as a “lawless” rogue state. Pompeo misleadingly claimed to enjoy the UK’s full support. Hunt did not dare contradict him.

The US war of attrition is not merely economic and diplomatic. Iran has faced cyber attacks. Its scientists have been assassinated, its ballistic missile programme sabotaged. It is the target of fake news and disinformation about its past nuclear activities and present-day links to terrorism. It is a country under siege. And US officials say they are just getting started.

It is often suggested that Trump wants to avoid another Middle East conflict. But hawks such as Pompeo, Bolton and the vice-president, Mike Pence – who between them are running foreign policy while the president tweets and plays golf – are not so shy. Given past statements about armed intervention, they would probably relish it.

The Americans appear implacable. As threats to the regime’s survival escalate and intensify, the prospect of violent retaliation by hardline factions in Tehran, or their minions, grows by the day. Intentionally or not, the US is driving Iran down the path to war.

Simon Tisdall is a foreign affairs commentator and former Guardian foreign editor