Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Friday, February 15, 2019

The EU’s Dirty Money Blacklist: North Korea, Syria, and… Puerto Rico?

In the latest showdown between Brussels and Washington, the U.S. Treasury Department instructed American banks to ignore new EU anti-money laundering directives.

The symbol of the euro, the currency of the eurozone, stands illuminated in Frankfurt, Germany, on Jan. 21, 2015. (Hannelore Foerster/Getty Images)The symbol of the euro, the currency of the eurozone, stands illuminated in Frankfurt, Germany, on Jan. 21, 2015. (Hannelore Foerster/Getty Images)

No photo description available.
BY , 
 |  The U.S. Treasury Department scolded the European Union for including U.S. territories on a list of dirty money hotspots around the world, telling American banks to ignore EU directives in an unusual technocratic spat that highlights continued friction between Washington and Brussels.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, on Wednesday released its revised “blacklist” of countries and territories around the world that it sees as deficient in countering money laundering and terrorism financing. The list, expanded in 2019 to 23 countries from 16, is part of a broader push in Brussels to crack down on dirty money in the wake of money laundering scandals that roiled some of Europe’s biggest banks and exposed serious shortcoming in the bloc’s financial regulations.

Outlined in a jargony 35-page report, the list pointedly includes several U.S. territories: American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. They were conspicuously paired alongside some of the world’s most repressive regimes and fragile states, such as North Korea, Iran, and Syria. The report directs EU banks to apply “enhanced due diligence measures” when dealing with the countries and territories on the list.

“The action by the EU is unprecedented,” said Jennifer Fowler, an advisor at the Brunswick Group consulting firm and a former Treasury Department official.

The Treasury Department responded with an unusually strong statement that questioned the EU’s findings and urged U.S. banks to ignore the directive.

“In principle, I don’t see anything wrong with the EU maintaining its own list of jurisdictions that they deem high risk, and it could even be useful,” said Joshua Kirschenbaum, a former anti-money laundering expert at the U.S. Treasury. But the EU list is problematic, he said, because it doesn’t clearly distinguish what types of oversight different jurisdictions require: Working with a financial institution in Iran, for example, presents very different challenges than working with one in Guam.
“They’re muddying different concerns,” said Kirschenbaum, now at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy.

The European Commission put out the expanded blacklist as part of an update to its money laundering regulations, thanks in part to pressure from the European Parliament. Previously, the EU blacklist mirrored the list put together by the Financial Action Task Force, the international organization that sets standards regulating the oversight of terrorism financing and money laundering. The United States and the European Union are members of the task force.

The revised EU list took the Financial Action Task Force list as a starting point but also used a broader definition of what countries and territories pose risk to the EU. Over the next six years, Brussels will evaluate additional jurisdictions and could add more names to the high-risk blacklist.

“We needed to be much more stringent and much more demanding” than the previous list, said Ana Gomes, a Portuguese member of the European Parliament and a leading voice in Brussels on tax evasion and money laundering. Though this first iteration doesn’t include notorious offenders such as Russia, Gomes said, “this list is an important step in the right direction; not quite what we expected, but a step in the right direction.”

The EU’s report says U.S. territories were included because they have “strategic deficiencies” in their ability to regulate money laundering. “They are attractive for tax crimes and exposed to a higher threat of money laundering linked to tax crime,” the report notes. Additionally, all the U.S. territories listed but Puerto Rico are classified as “non-cooperative jurisdictions” for not doing enough to tackle tax fraud, evasion, and avoidance.

“The question is: does it operate as a jurisdiction that facilitates money laundering, tax evasion, and so on? If it’s a small or big country, [it] doesn’t make any difference,” Gomes said.

The EU report sought to downplay the inevitable political impact of the new list. “The purpose is not to ‘name and shame’ third countries. Rather, the list will help to ensure that the jurisdictions concerned address identified deficiencies,” the report said.

But even with the disclaimer, it didn’t go over well in Washington. The Treasury Department slammed the list, saying in a statement it “has significant concerns about the substance of the list and the flawed process by which it was developed” and telling American banks they could ignore it.
Treasury also said it was “not provided any meaningful opportunity” before the release of the list to discuss with the European Commission why it listed the U.S. territories.

Not so, said Christian Wigand, a European Commission spokesperson. “In the run-up to the adoption of the list, we had a very constructive discussion with the U.S. authorities as we reached out to them about the U.S. territories that are on the list,” he said in an emailed statement to Foreign Policy.
The spat, though couched in bureaucratic language, is the latest example of worsening strains in the U.S.-EU relationship.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the EU for its trade stance, slapped tariffs on European allies, and promoted anti-EU politicians in countries such as Britain and France, while he has referred to the EU as a “foe” like Russia or China. On Thursday, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence took aim at European allies, urging them to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and accusing Europe of seeking to undermine U.S. sanctions.

European leaders, for their part, have indeed tried to keep doing business with Iran in spite of U.S. sanctions and are working to create an alternative to America’s global financial dominance.

Treasury’s response was “unnecessary and counterproductive,” Kirschenbaum said. “It needlessly escalated the importance of this list and created a rift with the EU.”

And he noted that despite Treasury’s objections, there are some U.S. jurisdictions, especially Puerto Rico, that do have weaker financial oversight than the rest of the United States—leading to a lot of “highly problematic” financial activity.

But Fowler, the former Treasury official, said it’s not clear whether the EU crafted its list with the same rigorous standards as the Financial Action Task Force. Treasury’s response was “a very factual and to the point rebuttal” to the EU, she said.

Ultimately, she said, the list could put American banks in a difficult position, as many operate in the EU. “Time will tell how they decide they want to use this [list] and how U.S. bank examiners will view it.”

Toxic black snow covers Siberian coalmining region

Activists say ‘post-apocalyptic’ scenes in Kuzbass highlight manmade ecological disaster
 Toxic black snow covers streets in Siberia - video

 in Moscow-
Residents of a coalmining region in Siberia have been posting videos online showing entire streets and districts covered in toxic black snow that critics say highlight a manmade ecological catastrophe.

In one video, filmed in Kiselyovsk, a town in the Kuzbass region, a woman drives past mounds of coal-coloured snow stretching to the horizon, covering a children’s playground and the courtyards of residential buildings. The scenes in the footage were described as “post-apocalyptic” by Russian media.

The coal dust that turns the snow black in the Kuzbass comes from numerous open pit mines that environmental activists say have had disastrous consequences for the health of the region’s 2.6 million people, with life expectancy three to four years lower than Russia’s national average of 66 for men and 77 for women.

Cancer, child cerebral palsy, and tuberculous rates in the Kuzbass region are all above the national average.

“It’s harder to find white snow than black snow during the winter,” Vladimir Slivyak, a member of the Ecodefense environmental group, said. “There is a lot of coal dust in the air all the time. When snow falls, it just becomes visible. You can’t see it the rest of the year, but it is still there.”

Despite political tensions between Moscow and London, Russia is the leading supplier of British coal imports. Russian mines supplied around half of the 8.5m tons of coal shipped into Britain in 2017, with up to 90% of it coming from the Kuzbass region. Coal is used in Britain for a range of purposes, including the manufacture of cement and steel and in power stations, which the UK government is committed to phasing out by 2025.

Some Russian environmental activists are calling on Britain to boycott Russian coal. “The best way to put pressure on them is to stop buying coal until they improve the situation,” said Slivyak.

The dust contains a variety of dangerous heavy metals, including arsenic and mercury, environmental activists say. Environmental problems are exacerbated by the practice of loading coal on to open train cars for export, with wind and rain depositing dust on towns and rivers along the rail tracks.

Critics say Russian authorities turn a blind eye to routine violations of safety norms and regulations, with open pit mines often located dangerously close to towns and villages. Andrei Panov, the deputy governor of the Kuzbass region, said coal-burning factories, transport-related pollution and unspecified businesses were possible causes of black snow.

The number of environmental protests, which were previously almost unheard of in the Kuzbass, are on the rise, with dozens reported in recent years as locals use the internet to organise.

Officials in Mysky, a town in the region, were mocked recently for painting black snow white in an apparent attempt to improve the appearance of a children’s snow-slide.

Video: Slow death for Gaza cancer patients


 14 February 2019

Israel’s siege on the Gaza Strip makes it difficult, if not impossible, for cancer patients to receive treatment.
Over the last decade, Israel has controlled and restricted shipments of medicine, among other basic necessities, into Gaza. This often causes severe drug shortages in Gaza hospitals.
“I come to the hospital to receive treatment and I am surprised that there is no treatment,” Sabreen al-Najjar, 40, told The Electronic Intifada.
Al-Najjar is one of many cancer patients in Gaza turned away by hospitals due to severe drug shortages.
“It is unbelievable. They sentence us to death. A slow death,” she added.
With the unreliable availability of medications, many patients try to receive treatment outside Gaza.
Gaza’s health ministry reported that 39 percent of essential drugs at the central drug store were at less than a month’s supply in November, and 57 percent of essential primary healthcare drugs were at zero stock levels, according to the World Health Organization.
Al-Rantisi hospital in Gaza, “which provides oncology services, reported that 75 percent (45 out of 60) of their chemotherapy drug items had reached ‘zero stock’ levels” as well, Medical Aid for Palestinians stated in August.
Israel denies many of those patients the permits necessary for them to leave the enclave and receive treatment in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, or within Israel.
More than 1,800 patients were denied permission to cross Erez checkpoint for healthcare in 2018, accordingto the World Health Organization, compared to approximately 700 denied in 2017.
Video by Akram al-Wa’ra and Nidal al-Waheidi

PM Modi warns Pakistan of strong response to Kashmir attack

People attend a candle light vigil to pay tribute to Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel who were killed after a suicide bomber rammed a car into the bus carrying them in Kashmir on Thursday, in front of India Gate war memorial in New Delhi, February 15, 2019. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis

Fayaz BukhariSanjeev Miglani-FEBRUARY 15, 2019

NEW DELHI/SRINAGAR (Reuters) - Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned Pakistan on Friday to expect a strong response to a suicide attack that killed 44 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel in Kashmir, ratcheting up tension between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

The car bomb attack on a security convoy on Thursday was the worst in decades of insurgency in the disputed region. India said it had “incontrovertible evidence” of Pakistani involvement, a statement quickly rejected by Islamabad.

“We will give a befitting reply, our neighbour will not be allowed to de-stabilise us,” Modi said in a speech, after meeting security advisers to discuss options.

The attack comes months before national elections in India.

The Pakistan-based Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) claimed responsibility soon after a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying CRPF personnel.

McCabe says he quickly opened FBI investigation of Trump for fear of being fired

Former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe told CBS's "60 Minutes" that he was concerned the Russia investigation would "vanish in the night without a trace." 
By Matt Zapotosky John Wagner-February 14 at 7:23 PM

Former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe said in an interview that aired Thursday that he authorized an investigation into President Trump’s ties to Russia a day after meeting with him in May 2017 out of fear that he could soon be fired.

“I was very concerned that I was able to put the Russia case on absolutely solid ground in an indelible fashion that, were I removed quickly or reassigned or fired, that the case could not be closed or vanish in the night without a trace,” McCabe told CBS.

The comments marked the first time that McCabe has publicly addressed why he opened an investigation into Trump following the firing of FBI Director James B. Comey, whose post McCabe took over. They came as CBS broadcast a portion of an interview scheduled to air in full Sunday on “60 Minutes.”

The clip — and journalist Scott Pelley’s description of what else he and McCabe talked about — suggests the onetime top official plans to pull back the curtain on law enforcement’s response to the new president as he promotes his book — “The Threat” — that is set to released next week. Pelley said that McCabe, in addition to talking about his interactions with Trump, described conversations officials had about using the 25th Amendment to oust the president.

The Washington Post and others have previously reported that McCabe alleges those conversations involved Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein — though Rosenstein vaguely disputes that. McCabe’s mentioning the discussions on “60 Minutes” dredged up old tensions between the two men, in addition to provoking a sharp response from Trump.

About two hours after the clip aired, Trump blasted McCabe on Twitter, calling him “a disgrace to the FBI and a disgrace to our Country.” The Justice Department also disputed some of what McCabe contended.

“Disgraced FBI Acting Director Andrew McCabe pretends to be a ‘poor little Angel’ when in fact he was a big part of the Crooked Hillary Scandal & the Russia Hoax — a puppet for Leakin’ James Comey,” the president wrote, referring to an FBI investigation into Democrat Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email server while secretary of state, in addition to its probe of possible coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Disgraced FBI Acting Director Andrew McCabe pretends to be a “poor little Angel” when in fact he was a big part of the Crooked Hillary Scandal & the Russia Hoax - a puppet for Leakin’ James Comey. I.G. report on McCabe was devastating. Part of “insurance policy” in case I won....


....Many of the top FBI brass were fired, forced to leave, or left. McCabe’s wife received BIG DOLLARS from Clinton people for her campaign - he gave Hillary a pass. McCabe is a disgrace to the FBI and a disgrace to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said in a statement that the CBS interview made it “imperative” that McCabe appear before his committee to answer for “what appears to be, now more than ever, bias against President Trump.”

It already had been reported that, in the wake of Comey’s firing, the FBI began to explore at that point whether Trump was trying to obstruct justice, and whether the president personally was of concern from a counterintelligence perspective. In the clip that aired on CBS, McCabe did not address specific evidence that led him to believe Trump should be investigated personally.

But McCabe’s talking about his mind-set during that time period was revelatory. Some at the Justice Department had been concerned McCabe might have acted too hastily to open a case because of Comey’s removal, people familiar with the matter have said.

McCabe also apparently addressed in the interview explosive allegations he made in memos documenting discussions with Rosenstein — although those clips have yet to air. It has been reported previously that McCabe alleged in the memos that Rosenstein suggested wearing a wire to surreptitiously record the president and/or invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office.

During an appearance on “CBS This Morning,” Pelley, the correspondent who interviewed McCabe, described the discussions of the 25th Amendment as “counting noses” — or speculating on where various Cabinet members might stand on the question.

Pelley said McCabe disputes the assertion, advanced by defenders of Rosenstein, that the deputy attorney general was not serious about wearing a wire. Pelley said McCabe took the idea to FBI lawyers for a discussion afterward.

That, too, has been previously reported, though McCabe has never before publicly described his allegations.

In a statement, a Justice Department spokesman said McCabe’s recitation of events — at least according to a transcript reviewed by officials — was “inaccurate and factually incorrect.”

The spokesman repeated Rosenstein’s previous response to McCabe’s version of his comments on wearing a wire and invoking the 25th Amendment, saying: “The Deputy Attorney General never authorized any recording that Mr. McCabe references. As the Deputy Attorney General previously has stated, based on his personal dealings with the President, there is no basis to invoke the 25th Amendment, nor was the DAG in a position to consider invoking the 25th Amendment.”

The spokesman also claimed, for the first time, that after Robert S. Mueller III was installed as special counsel, Rosenstein “directed that Mr. McCabe be removed from any participation in that investigation.”

The meaning of that was not immediately clear. At a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing in June 2017, the month after Mueller was appointed, McCabe, appearing with Rosenstein, talked of the FBI’s providing resources to the special counsel — implying he was still involved, at least in that respect.

“We have a robust relationship with the special counsel’s office, and we are supporting them with personnel and resources in any way they request,” he said.

At the same hearing, McCabe confirmed he was fully familiar with the scope of Mueller’s investigation, though he noted that Mueller was still sorting out some details of it. And that same month, he signed a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant that would allow the FBI to continue surreptitiously monitoring former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, one of the early subjects of the Russia probe.

As the clip of McCabe’s interview aired on CBS, the Atlantic published an excerpt of McCabe’s book, in which he describes his interactions with the president after Comey’s firing.

In one encounter that he seems to view as particularly troubling, McCabe wrote that Trump pressed in an Oval Office meeting to visit the FBI, even though he had just fired its well-liked leader. In McCabe’s view, Trump was trying to enlist McCabe in a plan to send a sinister message to employees that he had McCabe’s protection.

A frequent punching bag for Trump, McCabe was fired from the bureau in March just 26 hours before he could retire, after the inspector general presented Justice Department leadership with allegations that McCabe had authorized a disclosure to the media and then lied repeatedly to investigators about it. The timing of the firing cost McCabe a significant portion of his retirement benefits.

McCabe has said that his termination was politically motivated and meant to discredit the bureau and the ongoing Russia probe.

Tech entrepreneurs say sector could be ruined by post-Brexit immigration rules

-15 Feb 2019Economics Correspondent
So much of the Brexit debate has been dominated by unicorns – policies put forward by one side, dismissed as fantastical by the other. But it’s not all about mythical creatures. ‘Unicorn’ is a term used to describe tech start-ups that have grown into billion-dollar companies. And one of the sector’s leading investors has told this programme that Britain’s success in creating unicorn companies could be ruined by tough post-Brexit immigration rules.

Money is the Root of All Politics


by Zulkifli Nazim-
It is true, Politicians have an extremely poor reputation – but if you assume that every politician is like this, then, sad to say, it is devoid of good sense or judgment. If they were, then whole infrastructure would collapse before you could even say “Jack Robinson”.
They are a terrible, unpleasant lot, no doubt. They change their minds and reverse it? They are a weak tribe and do not have the ability or the wherewithal to lead. Many politicians are clearly in it for themselves.
But looking at our political systems and our politicians, it is very clear that doing or saying unintelligent things is no barrier to political success. Unfortunately, there are several psychological mechanisms that lead to apparent idiots being elected into powerful positions.
In the field of psychology, there is something called the Dunning–Kruger effect.  It is a cognitive bias a in which people of low ability have illusory superiority and mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. The cognitive bias of illusory superiority comes from the inability of low-ability people to recognize their lack of ability.
So the Dunning–Kruger effect reveals that less-intelligent people are usually “Incredibly Confident”; more intelligent people, by contrast, aren’t at all. Self-appraisal is a useful metacognitive skill, but one that requires intelligence; if you don’t have much of it, you don’t consider yourself flawed or ignorant, because technically you don’t have the ability to do so.
Apt definition of our politicians in a nutshell.
Effectively running a country of tens of millions citizens, all of who have different requirements and demands, is an incredibly complicated job. There are just so many variables that need to be considered. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to condense all this into a convenient soundbite for use with the modern media.
And thus, we have the less intelligent personalities being more confident, more persuasive, and so on. This is also demonstrated by Parkinson’s Law of Triviality, where people will spend far more time and effort focussing on something trivial that they do understand than something complicated that they don’t. The former offers far more scope for contribution and influence. And people do love trivial things, and consequently, less-intelligent people condensing down the big issues into brief but inaccurate snippets.
It is an unfortunate situation, but it just seems to be the way people’s minds work. And our media, print as well as the audio-visual, use this low mentality thinking as a weapon to support and guide or misguide in accordance with their self-interests, expediencies and egocentricities.
Now coming to the question of politicians and their inordinate love for power and wealth – It is believed that the intervention of corrupt politicians are to blame in their support of organised crime in the appointments of the judiciary and law enforcement officers, for the misappropriation of Billions of Rupees of the country’s wealth , through various means which had left this poor country’s financial affairs in disarray.
The power of these crime groups stems primarily from their ability to operate with ease across the country because of the support and protection afforded by the corrupt politicians. They have the expertise to complete a detailed risk assessment at the country level and then choose the least vulnerable approach to conduct their illicit activities, whether in narcotics, human trafficking or the massive money laundering exercises that follow such crimes.
The problem for national law enforcement is that, by definition, it cannot follow this type of crime easily. Modern crime schemes are designed to have very short lives to avoid detection, lasting sometimes just months before the associated companies and bank accounts are wound up and replaced by new ones.  The advantages available for criminals of operating locally and on a global scale are unlimited.
Such criminal schemes are designed by creative and intelligent, if misguided, people. Some of them could have been the next Steve Jobs, but found crime more appealing. They often work for what we call the ‘criminal services industry’ –  the lawyers, physicians, business intelligence firms and other legitimate businesses that earn lucrative income from servicing the needs of criminal clients and  aided and abetted with no less persons than those wielding political power and positions.
There are myriads of problems related to money in politics: financial scandals, the abuse of public funds, drug kingpins supplying illicit money to weddings and parties of politicians, and private corporations funnelling vast sums to party figures in order to garner favours – the list can continue indefinitely – the involvement of Makandura Madush with the top politicians in Sri Lanka is just one case in point.
It will be interesting to note that Mark Hanna of Ohio was one of the first modern political bosses, responsible for putting William McKinley in the White House in 1896 in large part because he raised an unprecedented amount of money–more than $3 billion in today’s economy. And Hanna’s most lasting contribution to politics is probably this light-hearted quip:
“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money, and I can’t remember the second.”
Jesse Unruh, Speaker of the California State Assembly in the 1960s, put it more succinctly. “Money”, he said, “is the mother’s milk of politics.”
It is common for money in politics to operate behind closed doors and involve shadowy practices. The exact amounts and origins of donations to political parties or candidates are often unknown. This creates a system that is open to abuse by big business or organized crime, which contributes money in return for influence. Donations seen as an investment by corporate interests have been reported from virtually all regions – where drugs money has infiltrated political life and elections.
In all regions of the world there is a deeply worrying trend of money in politics drowning out the voices of ordinary citizens.
As surely as water flows downhill, money in politics flows to where the power is. Individuals and interest groups will give campaign contributions to politicians in the best position to deliver what they’re looking for.
Money and politics are closely intertwined; the way that parties and candidates access their funding greatly affects how the political system functions. The contribution of money to political parties and candidates is an important way in which large corporations and wealthy capitalists exercise disproportionate influence over politics in Sri Lanka, yet it also poses serious challenges and threats to the political process, because it is not only the wealthy capitalists and large corporations it is also the deadly and pernicious influence of drug money, which dominates the political arena, today.
When corruption fails, there is always violence.
The dangers faced by those enmeshed in deadly narcotic networks describes the choices available to police officers, government officials, and common citizens: they can either accept bribes for taking part in illegal activities or for looking the other way or even a bullet if they fail to do so.
The vast wealth and chronic violence generated by the drug trade is an egregious example of how criminal behavior undermines efforts to establish the rule of law and effective government institutions,
It can be seen distinctly and incontrovertibly that Money is the root of all politics. It sounds so obvious, it’s hardly worth writing down.
From a sermon given by Frederick Lewis Donaldson in Westminster Abbey, London, on March 20, 1925.”
“The Seven Social Sins are:
Wealth without work;
Pleasure without conscience;
Knowledge without character;
Commerce without morality;
Science without humanity;
Worship without sacrifice and
Politics without principle.

US policy on Iran: What is the endgame?

Anti-Iran conference in Warsaw did not produce new initiatives, it emphasised existing alliances

Mike Pompeo has said he is convinced that Iranian people will 'rise up and change the behavior of the regime' (Reuters)

By   in 
Washington
The summit in Warsaw was officially called a "Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East", and despite the breadth of issues threatening peace and security in the region, the focus was singular: Iran.
The US-led anti-Iran conference in the Polish capital, which concluded on Thursday, did not produce new initiatives, but it emphasised existing alliances and reiterated old talking points against Tehran, analysts say.
"They have put out in the open what has been suspected for several years and confirmed many times over, that there has been a nexus between particularly Riyadh and Israel and also now the UAE," said Saeed Khan, a senior lecturer in Near East studies at Wayne State University in Detroit.
The summit was attended by US Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and top diplomats from several Arab Gulf states. But it was largely overlooked by European countries, which sent low level representation or skipped the summit altogether.
Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) said the administration was trying to isolate Iran, but found itself isolated.
'The speculation for Iran's demise are extremely premature.'
-Saeed Khan, professor
Trump left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a multinational agreement signed by his predecessor Barack Obama, which saw Iran drastically scale back its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions.
The European Union has refused to follow in the White House's footsteps, vowing to honour the agreement as long as Tehran sticks to its end of the bargain, a stance reiterated by EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini after the summit on Friday.

Sanctions

Washington officials have said they hope that sanctions will strain the Iranian economy enough to make the government rethink its policies.
"They’re weaker. Their economy is a wreck," Pompeo said of Iran in an interview with CBS News on Thursday.
"The Iranian people are very frustrated. Forty years on, forty years after the revolution, things are much worse for the Iranian people, and we’re convinced that will lead the Iranian people to rise up and change the behavior of the regime."
Critics, however, are less convinced, given the broad nature of this objective.
"What do we mean when we say: 'The sanctions work'? Because if something works, it means that you have achieved a goal. And to achieve a goal, you have to have a goal," John Limbert said at an event at the Atlantic Council in Washington on Tuesday. "I'm not sure what the goal is of the sanctions."
David Des Roches, a former Defence Department and White House official and a professor at the National Defense University, said the administration has used targeted sanctions against individual Iranian and Tehran-linked "bad actors" effectively.
Saudi Arabia's Jubeir condemns Iran for willingness to plot assassinations
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However, he questioned whether sanctions on entire industries would stir up change within Iran as Pompeo hopes.
He said reimposing sanctions gave Iran's rulers a chance to blame the US for their own "inefficiencies, the domestic corruption and the driving hand of the Revolutionary Guards".
"Because of the endemic corruption in Iran," he said. "The Revolutionary Guards may not suffer most of the harm of sanctions. It will be people who don't have access to the fixed system."
Costello, of NIAC, echoed Des Roches' remarks, saying that the government "does just fine" under sanctions.
"They control smuggling operations and they can bust the sanctions, but if you're a middle class person who perhaps has a small business, you're decimated by the impact on inflation, on people losing their jobs," he said. "You can't weather the storm, but the government can and has before."

'Regime change'

As for the possibility of a popular uprising that would spark major change in the Iranian government, Costello said it is an unrealistic outcome, given that the Iranian opposition remains fragmented.
Iran has faced leaderless, sporadic protests over worsening economic conditions since late 2017, but the demonstrations tapered off after a wave of arrests early last year.
"There's a lot of visceral anger at the government for mismanaging the economy and repressing the population," Costello said.
"But I think a lot of Iranian people have said: 'Look around the region; look at Syria; look at what's happening in Afghanistan and Iraq. We don't want to go down that path.'"
In Syria, the civil war has displaced millions of people and killed hundreds of thousands without toppling President Bashar al-Assad. Iraq and Afghanistan, which share borders with Iran, are still struggling to find political stability or security since the US-led invasions in the early 2000s.
The discouraging regional examples for "regime change" efforts, whether led by an internal uprising or a foreign military intervention were even noted by Emirati counterpart Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan on a panel in Warsaw on Thursday.
"But we need a serious regime behaviour change," he said, according to a videoleaked to Israeli media.
Des Roches said administration officials think the Iranian government is inherently unstable and vulnerable because of its autocratic structure.
"I think they want to see regime change," Des Roches said.
He explained that Pompeo, National Security Adviser John Bolton and Trump appear to believe that an authoritarian state like Iran would "collapse on its own weight" if Washington succeeds in modifying the government's behaviour, including curbing the domestic economic role and regional activities of the Revolutionary Guards.

Hawks in the administration

Khan said there is an "extreme anti-Iran wing" within the US administration that is seeking nothing short of "regime change" in Iran, "even if that means direct military confrontation".
The prospect of war was raised in Warsaw when Netanyahu's office tweeted a video of the Israeli premier saying in Hebrew that Israel is meeting with Arab representatives "to advance the common interest of war with Iran."
The video was deleted and reposted with an alternate translation, replacing "war with Iran" with "combatting Iran."
Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani, an Iran hawk who does not have an official government post, also was in the Polish capital..
Warsaw 'circus' throws up war talk, a Holocaust spat and a seating malfunction
Read More »
Earlier this week in Warsaw, Giuliani addressed a rally for opposition group Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), which advocates overthrowing the government in Tehran.
Both Bolton and Giuliani have been reportedly paid for previous speaking engagements with the MEK, which had been designated as a terrorist group in the US until 2012.
But the intelligence community is not as hardline on Iran, Khan said. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coates said in a report last month that Iran is still in compliance with the restrictions of the nuclear deal despite the US exit.
"We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device," the report said.
Khan called the assumption that Iranian government would fall because of economic pressure "hubristic".
He outlined three reasons why Iran will not come down to its knees because of the pressure: the resilience of Iranians, exterior threats that would galvanize them and the gaps within the sanctions regime, including other countries' willingness to circumvent them.
"The speculation for Iran's demise are extremely premature."

Trump Declares National Emergency in ‘Slap in the Face to Military Families’

The president will divert billions that would have gone to military construction projects.

Engineers from the 937th Clearance Company prepare to place concertina wire on the Arizona-Mexico border wall on Dec. 1, 2018. (U.S. Army photo by 2nd Lt. Corey Maisch)Engineers from the 937th Clearance Company prepare to place concertina wire on the Arizona-Mexico border wall on Dec. 1, 2018. (U.S. Army photo by 2nd Lt. Corey Maisch)

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 |  President Donald Trump’s plan to declare a national emergency will divert $3.6 billion earmarked for U.S. military construction projects—possibly hospitals and infrastructure improvements—to fund a portion of his long-promised wall along the southern border, a move that experts say is an affront to military families.

“I’m going to be signing a national emergency,” Trump said Feb. 15 in remarks in the Rose Garden. “It has been signed many times before … for far less important things in some cases, in many cases.

 We are talking about an invasion of our country with drugs, with human traffickers, with all types of criminals and gangs.”

In total, Trump will have access to roughly $8 billion that can be used to secure the southern border, said acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney in a call with reporters ahead of the president’s remarks.

The announcement, which came as the president also planned to sign into law a government spending bill to avoid a second government shutdown, comes just days after a Senate Armed Services subcommittee held a marathon hearing on the deplorable state of some military housing.

During the hearing, military families described in shocking detail living in crumbling homes, and lawmakers expressed outrage at the allegations of “unacceptable” conditions of privately managed housing. On the same day, a group released a survey of living conditions at U.S. bases that described black mold, lead paint, infestations, flooding, and more.

“Having the president declare a national emergency in order to use [military construction] funding just days after a horrible SASC hearing on the terrible state of privatized military housing is a slap in the face to military families,” said Loren DeJonge Schulman of the Center for a New American Security. “The trade-off may not be direct—it’s not clear what the funding might have otherwise done—but it’s an ugly symbol of priorities.”

Trump will use a legal provision that allows the president to redirect unobligated military construction funds—money that has been appropriated by Congress and set aside for specific projects but not yet issued—in the event of a war or national emergency.

In addition to the $3.6 billion in military construction funds, the White House has identified $1.375 billion in the appropriations bill the president plans to sign to avert the shutdown, $600 million from the Treasury Department’s forfeiture funds, and roughly $2.5 billion from Pentagon funding for counterdrug activities, some of which will be reprogrammed from other Defense Department accounts, Mulvaney said.

Congressional aides said as of Feb. 14 the Defense Department had just $800 million in its counterdrug coffers.

Trump previously asked Congress for $5.7 billion this year to build the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.