Blast hits tourist bus near Egypt pyramids, killing at least four

Bombing in Giza, near capital Cairo, kills three Vietnamese tourists and Egyptian guide, officials say

Incident took place about 6:15pm local time on Friday, Egyptian interior ministry says (Reuters)

Friday 28 December 2018

An explosion struck a bus carrying Vietnamese tourists in Giza, the site of the Egyptian pyramids, killing at least four people and injuring almost a dozen others, Egyptian officials said.

The blast took place in Giza around 6:15pm local time on Friday, Egypt's interior ministry said in a statement.

The ministry confirmed that two Vietnamese tourists were killed when a roadside bomb went off, while the state prosecutor's office said a third tourist died later.

An Egyptian tour guide also died in hospital from his wounds, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouli said in a government statement, as reported by AFP news agency.

At least 10 other Vietnamese tourists, as well as an Egyptian bus driver, were also hurt in the blast, the interior ministry said.

We have been in contact with the embassy of Vietnam to contain the impact of the incident, and what is important now is to take care of the injured

- Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouli

Fourteen Vietnamese tourists were travelling on the bus at the time of the explosion, it said.

The improvised explosive device was placed near a wall along Mariyutiya Street in the Haram district near the Giza pyramids, the interior ministry's statement said.

Egyptian security forces have completed an inspection of the blast site, the ministry said, without going into further detail about what happened.

No group took immediate responsibility for the incident.

The white tourist bus could be seen with its windows shattered and surrounded by soot-covered debris, AFP reported.  

'It was terrible'

One of the tourists on the bus, Lan Le, 41, was unhurt in the blast.

"We were going to the sound and light show and then suddenly we heard a bomb. It was terrible, people screaming," she told Reuters, speaking at al-Haram hospital, where the injured were taken. "I don't remember anything after."

Madbouli was set to visit the injured tourists in hospital after following up with his ministers on the incident, a government statement said, as reported by AFP.

"The bus deviated from the route secured by the security forces," Madbouly told Extra News TV, Reuters reported.

"We have been in contact with the embassy of Vietnam to contain the impact of the incident, and what is important now is to take care of the injured," he said.

Egypt has faced a string of bombings in the past few years, with several targeting Egyptian security forces in the country's Sinai peninsula.

Last year, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declared a countrywide state of emergency after two church bombings killed dozens of people in two cities. Those attacks were claimed by the Islamic State group.

Egypt's foreign ministry spokesman Ahmed Hafez called Friday's attack a "cowardly" terrorist act targeting the willpower of the Egyptian people.

"We extend our condolences to the families of the victims in fraternal Vietnam and Egypt... We will proceed together towards another year of persistence in uprooting terrorism," Hafez wrote on Twitter.

Bomb attack on tourist bus near pyramids kills at least four people

Egyptian officials say roadside bomb exploded near bus carrying Vietnamese tourists

Security personnel cordon off the damaged bus following the bomb attack in Giza. Photograph: Mohamed El-Shahed/AFP/Getty Images

Adham Youssef in Cairo-Fri 28 Dec 2018 19.22 GMT

At least four people have been killed and another 10 injured after a roadside bomb exploded near a bus carrying Vietnamese tourists close to the pyramids in Giza.

Three of the dead were Vietnamese and one was an Egyptian tour guide.

An Egyptian security source told the Guardian the bus had 16 people onboard and an IED exploded as it approached. Reuters reported that the device was hidden near a wall on Marioutiya Street on the Cairo outskirts.

Police and ambulances attended the scene, and the injured were transferred to nearby hospitals.
The tourists were heading to a show at the pyramids, which they had visited earlier in the day, said Lan Le, 41, who was onboard the bus but unhurt.

“We were going to the sound and light show and then suddenly we heard a bomb. It was terrible, people screaming,” she told Reuters, speaking at Al-Haram hospital. “I don’t remember anything after.”

Ahmed Samy, a tuk-tuk driver, said he saw the bus after the blast and locals and drivers were helping the injured to get out. “One of the passengers was dead and was covered in blood,” he said.

The Egyptian prime minister, Mostafa Madbouly, visited the injured at Al-Haram hospital. He told reporters that the bus had not followed the path it was supposed to take, where it would have been secured by the police.

Reuters said that the Egyptian driver of the bus later told local media he had not deviated from the route.

Egyptian prosecutors said they had launched an urgent investigation “to arrest the perpetrators”.
Tourism has been one of the main drivers of Egypt’s struggling economy, contributing around 375bn Egyptian pounds (£16bn), or 11% of GDP, in 2017, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.

The country has intensified efforts to woo tourists after a sharp decline in numbers following the political turmoil linked to the 2011 revolution. Tourism to Egypt’s Red Sea resorts, which had been spared the worst of the political upheaval, also fell dramatically following an explosion onboard a Russian plane over the Sinai peninsula on 31 October from Sharm el-Sheikh international airport. The explosion claimed the lives of all 217 passengers and seven crew members.

Targeted campaigns promoting tourism have been going hand in hand with huge state-sponsored international conferences designed to promote youth empowerment, technology and foreign investment.

No militant group has yet claimed responsibility for Friday’s attack. The most active group has been Islamic State, which has been operating mainly in North Sinai. An Isis-linked group claimed responsibility for the explosion on the Russian plane.

Isis also claimed responsibility for a January 2016 attack in Hurghada where two militants entered a hotel and stabbed three tourists. The Swede and two Austrians survived.

In February 2014, the militant group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, which later pledged allegiance to Isis, claimed a bomb attack that ripped through a tourist bus on the Egyptian side of the Taba border crossing with Israel, killing four and injuring about 30 passengers.

Before the Russian plane explosion, the deadliest attack to target tourists took place in Luxor in 1997 when more than 60 people, the vast majority foreign visitors, were murdered by militants armed with guns and knives.

Indian woman chops off her stalker's penis to 'teach him a lesson' after luring him into trap and tying him to a tree

• Indian woman allegedly hacked off penis of a man who had been stalking her
• She allegedly lured the man to railway tracks and tied him to tree before attack
• Along with two accomplices she was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder
• She was said to have told police she attacked neighbour to 'teach him a lesson' 

The 47-year-old woman allegedly attacked her 27-year-old neighbour after he made sexual advances towards her 

By CHRIS DYER FOR MAILONLINE and AFP- 27 December 2018

An Indian woman allegedly cut off the penis of a man who had been stalking her, before rushing him to hospital to save his life, police said.

The 47-year-old married woman and two men lured her neighbour to an isolated spot near some railway tracks in Mumbai, tied him to a tree before hacking off his genitals, police said today.

The 27-year-old neighbour had sought sexual favours from the woman and told the her husband he was in love with her, which led to a fight between the couple.

The woman, who is a mother-of-two, then allegedly sought help from two young men in the neighbourhood. 

They contacted the victim and lured him to an industrial zone in Dombivli, a suburb of Mumbai, on Tuesday, an officer added.

The woman then took the lead in cutting off the stalker's genitals in the street before rushing him to hospital.

The woman and her alleged accomplices were arrested by Manpada police later on Tuesday on suspicion of attempted murder. 

Senior Inspector Gajanan Kabdule, said: 'We have arrested the woman and two accomplices and she has accepted it was her plan to chop off the stalker's penis because of his constant harassment.

'We recovered the knife and genitals and all three accused are in police custody.'  

Local media reported that the woman told police she did it to 'teach a lesson'.

Police have not officially named the woman or the stalker but confirmed an investigation is underway.

The 47-year-old woman and two men lured her neighbour to an isolated spot in Mumbai before hacking off his genitals

A police source told the Times of India: 'Pujare was in love with the married woman and had been pest her for sexual favours. He had been stalking her despite his advances being rejected.'

Media reports also said the injured man underwent life-saving surgery.

'The man is stable now and recuperating in hospital but his family is in shock,' Kabdule said.

In 2017, an Indian woman cut off a man's penis after he tried to rape her at her house in the southern state of Kerala.

India has a grim record of sexual violence. On average, more than 100 rapes were reported each day in 2016, according to the most recent official figures.

Read more:

They never came home

Hanaa Irouq bought a shirt for her son on the day he was killed. Abed ZagoutThe Electronic Intifada


Sarah Algherbawi -26 December 2018

I can still remember the sense of panic at our school on 27 December 2008.

Suddenly, we heard a series of loud explosions. Everyone started to cry, scream, call their parents or run towards the exit, hoping they could get home before things got worse.

I lived close to school, so I hurried home. When I left the classroom, it felt like I was entering hell.

There was smoke everywhere. The main sound I could hear was that of sirens from ambulances. People were running in the streets.

Operation Cast Lead – Israel’s attack on Gaza 10 years ago – was a horrific time.

I was in my final year of high school. And I did my best not to let fear defeat me or affect my future. Amid all the destruction, I set myself the challenge of getting top grades in my exams.

I was lucky. None of my relatives was killed or injured. Our home was not damaged.

Many others were far less fortunate.

New shirt

Hanaa Irouq still has the shirt she had bought for her son Hassan on 27 December 2008.

She was due to visit a friend later that day. It had been agreed that Hassan would accompany her and propose marriage to her friend’s daughter.

“That morning I went to the market while Hassan was at work,” Hanaa, a resident of Jabaliya refugee camp, said. “I bought him a new shirt so that he could wear it for our appointment. But he never came home.”

Hassan – aged 22 – was killed on the first day of Operation Cast Lead. He was a police officer, based at a station near the Palestinian Legislative Council’s headquarters in Gaza City.

His uncle Mahmoud Irouq was also working at the same station.

Mahmoud was training a group of 52 officers in the station’s yard in the late morning. He had told the officers to take a break. Just as he was calling on them to resume training, Mahmoud felt himself being pushed backwards by the force of an explosion.

“After that, I wasn’t able to hear anything or move,” he said. “I only saw black smoke and smelled blood.”

Mahmoud was in hospital for the next three days. It would take a few months before his hearing was fully restored.

Now aged 42, Mahmoud has paid tribute to his late nephew by naming one of his own sons Hassan.

“Even though 10 years have passed, I can still remember every moment of that attack,” Mahmoud said.

Hanaa Irouq holds a photograph of her son Hassan. 

 Abed ZagoutThe Electronic Intifada

The Irouq family has shown a determination to be resilient. Five days after Hassan was killed, his father Maher tried to cheer up the family. He organized a large wedding party for Hassan’s brother Midhat.

But Hanaa – the boys’ mother – was unable to hide her sorrow. As soon as she saw the bride and groom at the ceremony, Hanaa burst into tears. She felt that Hassan should have been the one getting married.

“Unfortunately, life in Gaza never gives you what you want,” she said.

Israel attacked numerous police stations in the opening stages of Cast Lead. In total, 248 members of the police were killed during the three-week operation. According to a UN team which investigated Cast Lead, more than one out of every six people killed during the offensive was a police officer.

Under international law, police officers are regarded as civilians.

Approximately 1,400 Palestinians were killed during Operation Cast Lead.

Waiting to say goodbye

Ahmad Saad al-Din was killed, too, on the first day of the attack. Aged 24, he was working in the media relations department at the Muntada building in Gaza City. The Muntada was one of the key buildings for the police administration.

His family’s pain at losing Ahmad was worsened by their inability to find his body. Each time there was a temporary ceasefire, his father Abd al-Latif looked for the body at the Muntada site.

“I looked for my son in all hospitals and I searched under the [police station] rubble around 20 times,” said Abd al-Latif. “But every time I came back empty-handed.”

Operation Cast Lead ended on 18 January 2009. One day later, Abd al-Latif received a phone call from a paramedic, informing him that a body had been recovered under the Muntada station and brought to al-Shifa, Gaza’s largest hospital.

Abd al-Latif rushed to the hospital. “When I reached the mortuary, I found that Ahmad’s body was torn apart,” he said. “I was only able to recognize him from the watch on his wrist. I had given it to him as a wedding present.”

“It never occurred to me that I would be happy to see the body of my own son,” Abd al-Latif added. “But I was happy when they found the body – after all the suffering we had gone through during the war. We had waited a long time to say goodbye to Ahmad.”

Abd al-Rahman Odeh, a police officer, survived the attack on the Muntada station. He had left the station a few minutes before the bombing occurred, with the intention of buying a gift for his wife to mark their second wedding anniversary.

“I was only a couple of meters away from the building,” he said. “The bomb threw me in the air. When I looked behind me, I saw the site destroyed. There was smoke everywhere.”

Odeh quickly realized that a number of his friends and colleagues had been killed. He called an ambulance, sitting down near the station until it arrived.

Now aged 35, Odeh has resumed working in the Muntada station, which has been rebuilt. He has stopped celebrating his wedding anniversary because the 27 December date has become synonymous with the pain of losing friends.

“He died in front of me”

Imad al-Khaldi and his brother Bahaa started off 27 December 2008 by having breakfast with their father. Once they had eaten, the two young men left for the police station near the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Both were taking part in a training session when “day turned to night,” said Imad.

Imad al-Khaldi sits in front of a tribute to his brother Bahaa, killed by Israel 10 years ago. 

Abed ZagoutThe Electronic Intifada

“When I realized that it was a bomb, I started screaming for my brother but I didn’t get an answer,” he said. “I wasn’t able to stand on my legs, so I started crawling towards my brother. When I reached Bahaa, he was taking his last few breaths. I tried to rescue him by doing artificial respiration. But I was very exhausted and I fainted, falling on his chest.”

Imad, who had incurred a serious leg injury, remained in a coma for the next week. “I didn’t rescue my brother and I didn’t even say goodbye,” Imad said. “He died in front of me. I can’t describe how I feel about that.”

At 24, Bahaa was three years younger than Imad. They were very close, to the point that they often shared each other’s clothes.

Following the attack, Imad received treatment in Saudi Arabia. His medical team was able to save his leg.

Each December, Imad returns to the site where Bahaa was killed. Imad reflects on his loss, then goes back home.

A decade later, the pain caused by Cast Lead remains raw.

Sarah Algherbawi is a freelance writer and translator from Gaza.

Taliban seek image makeover as Afghan peace talks gain momentum

FILE PHOTO: Taliban on a motorbike ride among people in Kabul, Afghanistan June 16, 2018. REUTERS/Mohammad Ismail/File Photo

Abdul Qadir Sediqi, Jibran Ahmad-DECEMBER 28, 2018

KABUL/PESHAWAR, Pakistan (Reuters) - As moves towards peace pick up in Afghanistan, the Taliban are trying to show they have changed since the brutal days of the 1990s when they banned music and girls’ education and carried out public executions in Kabul’s football stadium.

“If peace comes and the Taliban return, then our return will not be in the same harsh way as it was in 1996,” Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid told Reuters, referring to the year they took over in Kabul before their ouster by U.S.-led troops in 2001.

“We want to assure Afghan nationals that there will be no threat to anyone from our side.”

The comments come as moves towards peace negotiations have intensified, following a series of meetings between U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban representatives over the past three months.

Expectations of a decisive shift have been heightened by reports that more than 5,000 U.S. troops may be withdrawn from Afghanistan, in an abrupt about-turn from the previous U.S. strategy of stepping up military pressure on the insurgents.

“Our opposition is with the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan. Once they are out and a peace deal is reached, then a nationwide amnesty will be announced,” said Mujahid.

“No one, police, army, government employees or anyone, will face revenge behaviour from our side.”
Reports of the withdrawal are unconfirmed but they have triggered alarm among many Afghans with bitter memories of the Taliban’s ultra-hardline regime.

“I don’t think their mindset has changed but they have realised that without respecting human rights, they cannot be accepted by the international community,” said Bilal Sediqi, spokesman for the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission.

With Afghanistan likely to remain dependent on foreign aid for years, the Taliban know they cannot return to the past when fighters swept into Kabul after the chaos of the 1990s civil war.

But they insist that as well as the withdrawal of foreign forces, there will be a return to their strict version of Islamic rule and many Afghans doubt their claims to have softened, even while yearning for an end to the war.

In June, Taliban leaders were angry at their fighters swapping selfies with soldiers and government officials and eating ice cream with civilians during a three-day ceasefire. Soon afterwards, they launched complex attacks on strategic provinces to try to oust Afghan forces and used civilians as human shields.

“TIRED OF WAR”

“I know there is no place for me if the Taliban return in their old style,” said Abdul, a 12-year police veteran currently working in the western province of Farah.

“...I will stand by the government side whatever it decides. But still I have not lost my hope in the future. The Taliban are not the old ones. We see changes among them. They are also tired of war.”

The Taliban, a predominantly ethnic Pashtun movement, strongest in the south and east of the country, now control large stretches of the countryside, where they levy taxes, run courts and control education.

FILE PHOTO: People take selfies with a Taliban in Kabul, Afghanistan June 16, 2018. REUTERS/Mohammad Ismail/File Photo

For many conservative rural Afghans, Taliban rule provides welcome stability and the merciless punishments and rigid controls on women’s rights fit well with traditional practices in many areas.
In the Aqtash district of northern Kunduz province, a hotbed of Taliban insurgents, some women said they are allowed to walk freely and do not have to cover their faces in all-enveloping burqas.

Mujahid said the Taliban were not against women’s education or employment but wanted to maintain cultural and religious codes.

“We are not against women working in government organisations or against their outdoor activities, but we will be against the alien culture clothes worn by women, brought to our country,” Mujahid said.

Omaid Maisam, the deputy spokesman for Afghan Chief Executive officer Abdullah Abdullah, said the government protects human rights and the Taliban must accept the national constitution to shed their hardline image.

“We have seen some signs of changes among them, but they have to show it in their actions that they have really changed,” he said.

Many believe the return on the Taliban would threaten the gains the country has made since 2001. Much work remains to be done to convince women in work or education and sceptical groups of ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras from northern and central Afghanistan.

“I think that these statements that the Taliban have changed are only excuses that are being used by the Taliban to gain acceptance,” said Malina Hamidi, a teacher at a school in the Chamtal district of Balkh province.

“I am 100 percent confident that once they come back to power, they will be the same Taliban that ruled Afghanistan in the nineties.”

Additional reporting by Abdul Matin Sahak in MAZAR-I SHARIF; Writing by Rupam Jain in Kabul; Editing by Nick Macfie

Kurdistan Rising: A Spotlight on the Region

Kurdistan Regional Governorate in northern Iraq is rebuilding its economy and is ready to welcome foreign investment

Falah Mustafa Bakir, Minister of Foreign Relations

Work has started on a $600 million project to build the world’s largest US consulate complex in a strategically vital autonomous region in north Iraq — the Kurdistan Regional Governorate (KRG). It is a culturally rich and diverse region, full of fertile lands and natural resources, and the new consulate signals that the US stands with it as it builds a bright future, said US Ambassador to Iraq Douglas Silliman: “I believe KRG will be an important point of entry for foreign investment because this region has a very positive history of doing business.” “The international community has seen the stability, commitment, clear mindedness and deliverables achieved by the government of the region. Indeed, many international partners view KRG as a model for the rest of Iraq, as well as the Middle East,” clarifies Falah Mustafa Bakir, Minister of Foreign Relations. While Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, KRG Representative to the US, notes: “Compared to our neighbors, we are years ahead in women’s rights, freedom of expression and religion, and the plurality of politics.”

The KRG held its first elections and gained autonomy in 1992, a year after its strong partnership with the US was forged, when the latter helped establish a no-fly zonFalah Mustafa Bakir, Minister of Foreign Relationse over the region to protect it from Saddam Hussein’s regime. In 2003, KRG’s armed forces (the Peshmerga) played a critical role in the liberation of Iraq. KRG then experienced an economic boom, which was only halted in 2014 when ISIS emerged in the area.

“The Peshmerga, alongside a US-led coalition, helped eliminate the advances of ISIS. This victory came at a great cost economically, politically and socially,” explains Bakir. The region has faced immense recent challenges, not least due to opening its arms to millions of internally displaced citizens and Syrian refugees, losing much of its infrastructure in the fighting and negotiating a historically strained relationship with the central Iraqi government in Baghdad. This came to a head in 2017, when the region held a non-binding referendum on independence. Although 93% of the votes were in favor, the result was not recognized centrally. “However, since the beginning of 2018, our relationship with Baghdad has gotten progressively better — politically and emotionally. With dialogue and cooperation, our new-found relationship with Baghdad should maintain KRG’s stability, says Rahman.

Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, KRG Representative to the US

Building a bright future

Having achieved stability, safety and security for the region, the government is now aiming to rebuild its economy. “The plan is to advance our education and health sectors; ensure that the rule of law prevails; continue to build strong, fully functioning and democratic institutions; and provide equal opportunities for all,” says Bakir. KRG also wants to diversify its economy away from its plentiful oil and gas reserves.

To meet these goals, KRG is encouraging foreign direct investment. It has had a very friendly investment law for ten years but Bakir notes: “Perhaps the most attractive aspect for investors is the warm welcome they receive from officials and the community. KRG is the ideal launching pad for foreign investors and companies to target the Iraqi market as well as neighboring countries.”

Investors such as Exxon, Chevron, HKN Energy and Hunt have already been attracted to the potential in KRG’s petroleum sector, and the region’s pro-investor approach has also brought in well-known foreign banks. The tourism sector is seeing increasing success as well, with Hilton and various other groups due to open hotels shortly. Other sectors that offer many opportunities include agriculture, manufacturing and industry,” states Bakir: “We also have a huge focus on infrastructure — services such as railroads, water management, sewage, roads, tunnels and bridges provide viable and immediate investment opportunities.”

US businesses are predicted to be beneficiaries of these opportunities, says Rahman: “The way I see it, both the US and KRG want to widen the relationship we already have. For example, we have a very strong relationship with the US Congress, where there is a bi-partisan support for us that we cherish, and we have the US-Kurdistan Business Council in Washington.” Despite the difficulties KRG has endured, “The region has a lot to offer the global community,” believes Bakir; “We have shown that we are a valuable asset to the world at large, and we are a model for democracy and stability in the Middle East.”

FP-PR-Kurd-v19-LR.pdf by on Scribd

How low will Trump go before Republicans flee?

President Trump's holiday plans were derailed by a government shutdown, a death at the border and unsettled stock markets. (Joyce Koh, Elyse Samuels/The Washington Post)

By Jennifer Rubin-Opinion writer-December 27

President Trump is getting slammed by Democrats and some Republicans for foreign policy blunders, a needless government shutdown and removing Defense Secretary Jim Mattis two months before his resignation was to take effect. Incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) already mastered the art of needling him. (“First of all, the fact . . . that he says, ‘We’re going to build a wall with cement, and Mexico’s going to pay for it’ while he’s already backed off of the cement — now he’s down to, I think, a beaded curtain or something.”) The markets are on a roller coaster. That Trump is bleeding support should therefore come as no shock.

The Morning Consult poll found at the onset of the shutdown that “39 percent of registered voters — including 80 percent of Republicans — approved of the president’s job performance, while 56 percent — including 90 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents — did not.” His numbers in this poll haven’t been this bad since Charlottesville.

Voters not only blame Trump for the shutdown; they also think he’ll never get his wall:

Forty-three percent of registered voters said Trump was mostly to blame for the shutdown, compared with roughly one-third who blamed Democrats and 7 percent who chose Republicans in Congress. Seventy-three percent of Democrats and a 41 percent plurality of independents blamed Trump for the shutdown, while about two-thirds of Republican voters said Democrats were mostly to blame.

Sixty-four percent — including 54 percent of Republicans! — think he’s unlikely to get the wall.

Gallup’s poll also shows his approval at 39 percent.

Likewise, the Suffolk University-USA Today poll shows his approval at 42 percent, his disapproval at roughly 54 percent — with 41 percent who strongly disapprove of his performance (compared with 24 percent who strongly approve). This poll also shows 77 percent think the country is more divided, and a majority (56 percent) think he likely or definitely won’t be reelected. Less than 30 percent approve the shutdown, while 54 percent oppose it. A plurality (43 percent) blame Trump and the Republicans, while only 23 percent blame Democrats, and 30 percent say they are equally to blame.

And if we fall into a recession, 42 percent are ready to blame Trump, compared with only 14 percent who would blame congressional Democrats. On the Russia investigation, 35 percent have some or a lot of trust in Trump, while 53 percent say the same of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III. Forty-six percent think there definitely was collusion; only 29 percent think there definitely was not.

The polling suggests that Trump’s opposition has hardened. The question for 2019 that fellow Republicans will focus intently on is whether his polling stabilizes in the high 30s/low 40s, where it has been for his entire presidency, or whether the accumulation of scandals, flubs, personnel debacles and economic turbulence pull him significantly lower. If it’s the former, and the economy remains robust, Trump will likely maintain his grip on the party and stand a good chance of renomination. That outcome is hardly a given now, however.

It’s quite possible (likely, even?) that the Mueller report will paint a devastating portrait of presidential wrongdoing (and bring indictments of members of his innermost circle), that Democratic investigations turn up ample evidence of incompetence and corruption, that the economic recovery peters out (if not falling into recession), that Trump’s personnel picks continue the pattern of low-quality people replaced by even lower-quality people and that an international incident (which we’ve avoided to date) proves Trump’s total incompetence. At that point, Republican lawmakers' loyalty to (or fear of) Trump will come up against their panic over their own political fates. Equally important will be the reaction of the donor class if the stock market continues to tank, siphoning off any gains they’ve enjoyed from the tax cuts.

In short, Trump in 2019 will either muddle through another year of his chaotic presidency or finally wear out his welcome among Republicans who finally recognize they can save him or themselves, but not both.

UPDATE: Yet another bad poll for Trump: This one for the Associated Press conducted by NORC shows that “16% of those who ‘somewhat’ supported Trump’s job performance decided to vote for Democratic House candidates in the November midterms. That’s compared with 6% of those who self-identified as Trump’s ‘strong” supporters.” The challenge for Democrats will be to convert these into Democratic voters in the presidential 2020 race.

Undivided India: Truth or Farce

by Arshad Khan- Dec 27, 2018

Dec 27, 2018

It would be a silly question indeed to ask why December 25th is celebrated.  On the other hand, one could ask why it is a national holiday in Pakistan, for it is not because it’s Christmas.  By an unusual coincidence it happens to be the birthday of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founding father of the country.  Exactly how Pakistan came into being is an interesting story as it also leads to the question whether the dismemberment of the Indian subcontinent — now three countries — could have been averted.

Jinnah started out as a voice for Hindu-Muslim unity, although wary of majoritarianism and Hindu domination.  A highly successful lawyer with patrician tastes, he was averse to mob violence and wanted constitutional independence — the British handing over to an elected Indian government and a constitution safeguarding the rights of minorities.

The first step was to seek Dominion status in which Indians would run their own affairs although subject to control by the British government.  Accordingly a London conference was convened.  The Round Table Conference began in grand style on November 30, 1930 with a plenary session at the House of Lords;  after which the participants retired to St. James Palace for the talks.

Hindu and Muslim members sought first to agree on a united front.  His Highness The Aga Khan was leading the delegation and also spoke for the Muslims.  Sir Chimanlal Setalvad, a prominent Hindu member, has written that the Aga Khan agreed to the Hindu demand for joint electorates, instead of separate Hindu and Muslim ones, but with the reservation of seats for Muslims, and he added magnanimously, “In that event you lead and we follow.”  Jaswant Singh describes (p. 178) what transpired in his excellent book, “Jinnah: India — Partition, Independence.”   Unfortunately the Hindu members receptive to the proposal were intimidated by the others and the Hindu Mahasaba (p. 179, ibid.), the precursor of the nationalist Hindutva movement.  Prime Minister Modi’s Bharataya Janata Party (BJP) has a Hindu nationalist fervor which has unmasked the BJP that was in power with Jaswant Singh as Foreign Minister.

Without a united front, the Round Table Conference was doomed.  The seeds of Pakistan had been sown, and as Jinnah repeatedly confronted majoritarianism devoid of any assurances for Muslims, his demands for Pakistan became more implacable.

The last chance for one India arrived in 1946 with the Cabinet Mission.  Field Marshal Viscount Archibald Percival Wavell served as Viceroy of India from 1943 to early 1947.  Lord Wavell hosted the Mission and served as a link to the parties i.e. Jinnah of the Muslim League and Nehru of the Congress Party.  The somewhat ingenious plan devised coalesced the provinces into four groups, the western provinces (now Pakistan), the east, the center and the south.  The first two were Muslim majority, the latter two Hindu.  The individual provinces would elect members to a group constituent assembly which would then select representatives for the central government in Delhi.  Equal Hindu and Muslim groups ensured reasonable parity in Delhi.

The interim government in Delhi that Wavell had in mind would consist of a council of twelve (p. 207, ibid.):  five from the Muslim League, five from Congress, one Sikh and one Dalit.  In accepting the plan and therefore less, Jinnah was putting his demand for Pakistan at risk.  The gesture was unappreciated for with each letter and each communication with Congress, Wavell’s original parity suffered dilution.  Moreover, Nehru even rejected the Cabinet Mission’s grouping plan claiming clearly falsely that, the “entire country is opposed” to it (p. 379, ibid.).

In the end there were fourteen members of the council without parity for Muslims.  The plan was formally rejected by the Muslim League on July 27, 1946 (p. 382, ibid.).  The era of a constitutional path to independence was over.   Jinnah and the Muslim League had tired of Nehru’s repeated shifts on positions critical to Muslim interests.

Thus the call for Direct Action.  The demonstrations began on August 16, 1946, and the confrontations led to riots leading to killings.  The British government recalled Wavell in February 1947.  Lord Mountbatten of Burma took over, and a precipitate rush to independence followed.  Group enmities resulted in a mania of  killing as Muslims fleeing violence in the new India and Hindus and Sikhs the same in Pakistan fled towards the borders without protection.  Over two million lost their lives before the cataclysm ended.  And occasional spasms still erupt such as the 2002 killings of Muslims in Gujarat during Modi’s rule plus numerous other incidents.

The leftovers include the continuing troubles in Indian Kashmir and the frequent blinding of the young during demonstrations.  The security forces eschew rubber bullets for pellet loaded shotguns.  The decades-long insurgency has cost the lives of up to 100,000 Kashmiris.

The two countries have fought four wars.  In the first, Pakistan wrested control of a third of Kashmir from India after the Maharaja seceded the state to India against the wishes of an overwhelming majority of his people.  In the third war, India repaid Pakistan in kind paving the way for East Pakistan to become the new country of Bangladesh.  The other two wars ended in the status quo ante.  If there is another war, the world could face a nuclear winter — about 300 nuclear weapons in the two countries are trained on each other.

What a price to pay for majoritarianism!  In the meantime, the new Modi government with its Hindu nationalist agenda and continuing contempt for secularism  — even centuries-old place names are being changed — confirms the fears of the Muslim minority, justifying their course of action during that fateful summer of 1946.

Arshad M. Khan is a former professor who has, over many years, written occasionally for the print and often for online media outlets. This piece first appeared in Counter Punch 

2018 year of indifference to human suffering, but hope for 2019

Summit of the year: Trump meeting Kim Jong-un in Singapore

 2018-12-28

ith the controversial actions of the United States President Donald Trump giving rise to a tumultuous world order, the year that comes to an end in three more days can easily be labelled as a year of indifference to human suffering.Tens of thousands of children die of starvations and disease in Yemen in scenes reminiscent of Somalia in the 1990s, but Trump has made little effort to stop the Saudi-Arabia-led war on the poorest Arab nation. Even after, the Senate, as a response to Saudi Arabia’s extrajudicial killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, passed last month a resolution urging the US to stop its support for the Saudi-led war on Yemen, Trump puts business with Saudi Arabia before the urgent need to end the Yemeni people’s suffering which the World Food Programme has described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

According to the international charity group, Save the Children, more than 85,000 children under five have died of extreme hunger in Yemen since the war began in 2015, while other aid agencies estimate that of two million Yemeni children, who are mere skins on bones, nearly one hundred die daily in Yemen. The indifference of the world community – or its complicity -- even after seeing the shocking images of dying children is as appalling as it is puzzling. 

Despite being beset by regular resignations of senior officials, the latest being Defence Secretary James Mattis, multiple scandals, investigations over collusion with Russia and a government shutdown, Trump is adamant and does what he wants in the way he wants.  In his bid to appease Saudi Arabia, Trump also disregards calls to take punitive measures against the Gulf nation for the gruesome killing of Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia’s consulate office in Istanbul on October 2.  Apart from Turkey, the rest of the world has not taken a moral stand on this issue and continues its relations with Saudi Arabia regardless, as though human rights are only a matter to be taken up when powerless states commit excesses. 

The year also underlined a depressing reality that the world failed miserably to deal with the life-and-death issue of climate change.  With 2018 being regarded as the fourth warmest year on record since 1880, the blow the Trump administration’s self-centred policy dealt to the climate change agreement by withdrawing from it last year had a cumulative effect.  With the US, one of the biggest polluters of the planet, not in the picture, the climate conference in the Polish coal town of Katowice this month became just another talk shop.
Trump’s make-America-great-again policy does not allow other nations to benefit at the expense of US sacrifices.  He has dismissed climate change warnings as a hoax perpetrated by China. 

The year also saw the United States launching a protracted trade war with China. The tit-for-tat trade sanctions had an adverse impact on the growth of the global economy, affecting largely developing nations.
If 2017 was a year of hope for migrants fleeing war and poverty, 2018 is a year of nightmare for migrants, especially those from Latin America. 
This week, a second migrant child died in US custody as the Trump administration, which is hell bent on building a border wall -- instead of bridges to bring people together -- persists with its tough stand on migrants coming from Latin American nations. Most of these nations, especially El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua, have been pushed into poverty as a result of Washington’s interventionist foreign policy. 

Yet another Trump action that paid little or no attention to human suffering is the sanctions imposed on Iran. The Trump administration, in yet another controversial move, withdrew from the seven-nation Iran nuclear deal and slapped fresh sanctions on Iran, denying the oil-producing nation the opportunity to raise the living standards of its people suffering under decades of tough international sanctions. The move also shot up world oil prices deepening the economic crises many developing nations face. 

Talking of human suffering and global indifference, Palestine needs a special mention. This year also is yet another annus horribilis for the Palestinian people. The Trump administration’s recognition of the whole of Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel and the shifting of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem dashed the Palestinians’ hope for an independent state with East Jerusalem as their capital. The defiant Palestinians continue their peaceful struggle, with Palestinian refugees in Gaza launching a Great March to Return to draw the world’s attention to their plight, the injustice caused to them and the humiliation they undergo in the hands of Israeli occupation forces. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since the launch of the Great March in March this year.  Yet the international community’s contribution towards ending the Palestinian people’s suffering is distressingly nominal. 

The international community’s indifference to the suffering of the Syrian people continues this year, too. There was little progress on the Syrian front in terms of peace moves. With the Syrian troops now in control of much of the country, and the ISIS terrorists on the run, the war has reached a stalemate. But, it could escalate anytime, as Trump is calling back the US troops from Syria and giving regional power Turkey a freehand to deal with the Syrian Kurdish rebel group YPG which Ankara regards as an extension of the Turkish separatist group PKK. 

A woman holds her skin-on-bones son at a malnutrition treatment center in Sanaa, Yemen. Pic Reuters

The Trump administration in a rash decision is also planning to slash the US military strength in Afghanistan by half. Though a US withdrawal is welcome from Syria and Afghanistan, the move should have been accompanied by measures aimed at permanent peace.  
In terms of world peace, the biggest event this year was the summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore in June. The meeting, however, was seen more as a cameo performance by the two maverick leaders than any genuine attempt to strike peace.  As the year began, the world was gripped by fears of a nuclear war between the US and North Korea over Pyongyang’s missile tests.  After the June talks, North Korea dismantled its nuclear weapon test sites, but is now complaining that the US has not kept to its part of the deal.

The year also saw a slowdown in China’s growth, but its push to expand the Belt-and-Road Initiative is making progress, nevertheless, amid criticism that the BRI was China’s neocolonial project driven by debt diplomacy. 
Russia, meanwhile, continues to assert itself in 2018, getting involved in a war of words with Britain following chemical poisoning attacks on Russian dissidents living in Britain. 

The year’s another big story is Britain’s struggle to get a Brexit deal approved in parliament to complete its divorce with the European Union in March next year. 
In South Asia, the setback the Narendra Modi government suffered in recent elections, the defeat of the Maldivian strongman Abdulla Yameen in the presidential election, cricket legend Imran Khan’s rise to prime ministerial seat and, of course, Sri Lanka’s constitutional coup, dominated world headlines.  Another significant development of the year was Malaysia’s general election which saw Mahathir Mohamed’s return to power on a platform of anti-corruption in May. 

On a positive note, though 2018 is a year of indifference, 2019 can be a year of hope, or at least let us hope it will be so, as we see a glimmer of peace hope in the distant horizon with regard to Yemen and Syria. Also 2019 could be an eventful year for the US, with the release of the report on the Robert Mueller investigation into the Trump camp’s alleged liaison with Russia likely any time. Will President Trump survive the probe’s outcome? This question may dominate the political discourse next year. 

What’s behind Malaysia’s ‘worsening’ property glut?

Overhead view of eight rows of colourful and white historical dutch colonial terraced houses in Melaka, Malaysia. Source: Shutterstock

 28th December 2018

WHILE many international realtors praise the Malaysian property market’s stability amid a backdrop of a cooling regional economy, experts at home have pointed to a worrying glut in unsold homes.

The National Property Information Centre (Napic) recently published data showing a total of RM19.54 billion (US$4.6 billion) worth of unsold properties to date.

The centre said by the third quarter of the year, the nation saw an increase in 30,115 units that were unsold, compared to the 20,304 units in the same period last year.

SEE ALSO: How residential properties in Southeast Asia performed in 2018 

Chang Kim Loong, secretary-general of the National House Buyers Association (HBA), said the number of unsold properties would continue to rise if homes were sold at prices that people could not afford.

Currently, “affordable” homes are widely considered to be properties that cost RM500,000 (US$120,192) and below and Chang says the developers should revisit the definition and consider the actual affordability of the regular Malaysian.

Business publication The Edge Markets recently revealed that half of Malaysian workers still earned less than RM2,000 (US$480) a month despite substantial income growth since 2010.

“The situation of unsold properties or ‘overhang’ is only going to get worse if those in the Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (Rehda) and other developers continue to build properties which are beyond the income levels of the majority of our people,” Chang said, as quoted by Free Malaysia Today.

Chang said the association has repeatedly warned of the mismatch between house prices versus the income of consumers.

“It’s just not affordable,” he said.

A Malaysian father and daughter plays together outside their new house. Source: Shutterstock

The affordable homes, according to Chang, would ideally cost between RM150,000 (US$36,000) and RM300,000 (US$72,115).

Chang suggested that the economic slowdown was unlikely to pick up again in the near term, but housing developers could give “real” discounts to sell the unsold properties.

“Instead of giving freebies like free legal fees, free stamp duties, free furniture, free two years’ maintenance charges, extra car park, or cash back guarantees, housing developers should give actual discounts off the sales price.

“As an example, actual sales price minus 20 percent off. They must also build the right product at the right place with the right pricing and the right numbers.”

Another property expert Ernest Cheong agreed with the argument, adding the number of unsold units would only rise in prices kept increasing.

SEE ALSO: South Korea’s property prices are expected to dip next year 

For Cheong, the lack of transactions could mean that 50 percent of the developers faced bankruptcy in two years’ time if they failed to sell the units and service their loans with the banks.

The situation could be a repeat of the recession in the late nineties in which a large number of developers went bankrupt for this reason.

Cheong pointed the blame solely at the developers who went ahead to build more upmarket properties instead of affordable ones, despite warnings several years back of an oversupply of expensive homes that ordinary people could not afford.