As partial government shutdown heads into Day 6, the ‘cold reality’ sinks in

With nine federal departments and several federal agencies going unfunded, here's who and what are impacted by the partial government shutdown. (Video: Jenny Starrs /Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

By Jeff Stein and Jenna Portnoy-December 26 at 7:49 PM

Congressional lawmakers see no clear end in sight to the nation’s partial government shutdown, as thousands of federal workers have been furloughed amid a deep divide over President Trump’s proposed border wall.

The White House has demanded that Congress approve $5 billion for constructing a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico, a request Democrats have rejected as wasteful.

About 25 percent of the federal government has been shut down amid the standoff, with roughly 800,000 federal workers nationwide expected to be affected. Employees classified as “essential” — including airport security, the military and those in other emergency service jobs — will continue to work, while about 350,000 federal employees are on furlough at home without pay, according to Government Executive, a publication about federal employees.

House members have been told there will be no votes on Thursday, meaning the partial shutdown will probably last until at least Friday. Many national parks across the country have also been closed, and the Internal Revenue Service planned to close taxpayer assistance lines, among other operations, weeks ahead of filing season.

The shutdown also began affecting the nation’s court system, as the Justice Department asked a federal judge to temporarily pause certain cases until the government provides funding for the department.

“Now that the holidays are behind us, the cold reality of the shutdown is going to start to hit,” said Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.), who represents Northern Virginia, home to thousands of federal workers.

During an unannounced visit to Iraq Dec. 26, President Trump told reporters he was willing to continue a partial government shutdown. (The Washington Post)

But neither side has hinted at softening its position. On Wednesday, shortly after arriving in Iraq for a surprise visit, Trump told reporters that he would be “going to the wall” for a visit before the State of the Union address at the end of January.

Asked how long the shutdown might last, Trump responded: “Whatever it takes. We need a wall. We need safety for our country. Even from this standpoint. We have terrorists coming in through the southern border.”

A spokesperson for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Democrats’ likely plan is to put a bill that funds the government, without money for Trump’s wall, on the floor on Jan. 3. That is the first day of the new session of Congress, when Democrats take control of the House.

Democrats have supported including an additional $1.3 billion in border security funding, at one point agreeing to an additional $1.6 billion during negotiations with congressional Republicans.

But congressional Democrats are insisting Trump will get nothing near the $5 billion he has demanded for the wall. Particularly concerning to congressional Democrats is the possibility of rewarding Trump for threatening to shut down the government over a policy demand, which they said could establish a dangerous precedent. During the Obama administration, Republicans in Congress also threatened to shut down the government over defunding Planned Parenthood and undermining the Affordable Care Act.

“I’m very concerned that you’re holding the federal government hostage for your latest whim — that’s a widespread feeling, and many Republicans privately share that concern,” Connolly said.

Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), a conservative leader in the House who met with Trump on Saturday, said the president has encouraged congressional Republicans to negotiate with Democrats on “finding some kind of path forward.” But Meadows said he also sees “no evidence” Democrats are about to budge.

“If Democrats believe that this president is going to yield on this particular issue, they are misreading him,” Meadows told CNN. “I can tell you his resolve is very firm.”

The urgency to complete a deal may be amplified by volatility in the stock market, which suffered the worst decline on Christmas Eve in history and has entered bear market territory in some sectors. The Dow Jones industrial average was up more than 1,000 points Wednesday as markets recovered from the sharp decline.

Many federal workers are also reporting for work not knowing if they will be paid. Recent shutdowns have ended with funding bills that include back pay for furloughed federal employees, but there is no guarantee Congress will continue to do so.

Maria Ortega, 44, who lives near San Diego and is the wife of a Department of Homeland Security worker, said that she and her husband have tried to talk with their two children about the shutdown without scaring them.

“We don’t want to unnecessarily burden them, but they are aware that the government is shut down and Daddy’s paycheck isn’t coming,” said Ortega, who added that her family does not live paycheck to paycheck but said she has already reconsidered things like getting her car washed and whether to buy coffee in the morning. “The irony is that the shutdown started over funding for the wall, and it’s those workers who are at the border who are most affected, who aren’t being paid.”

Other federal workers are starting to feel the pinch. Paul Greenberg, a NASA research scientist and physicist at the Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, is working on a project funded by Homeland Security to build sensor packages that first responders and firefighters can wear to monitor their exposure to airborne substances, as well as a telescope to send data back from deep space. The telescope is supposed to be in orbit in 2020.

“You can’t build something someone’s never built before sitting on your a-- doing nothing,” he said. “Everything just stops.”

“We’re told we’re worthless parasites,” said Greenberg, who has spent 30 years at NASA and is a congressional liaison for the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers. “I’ll tell you, retirement’s looking more attractive all the time.”

But Chris Chmielenski, director of content and activism at NumbersUSA, said Democrats should back up votes they had taken in previous years to beef up border security. NumbersUSA, which advocates restricting immigration, has generated more than 10,000 calls to the White House and members of Congress as part of the shutdown fight.

“Democrats can come out and say they supported billions for fencing, but when push comes to shove, and this is something that will get passed into law, they suddenly back off,” Chmielenski said.

Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.

Buying and holding volatility usually hurts; then came 2018

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 11, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Saqib Iqbal Ahmed-DECEMBER 26, 2018

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The big uptick in stock market gyrations this year has made a surprise winner out of a trade that has rarely delivered a win - buying and holding volatility.

Stock market ructions over the last decade have been few and fleeting, requiring great feats of timing to generate profits from volatility buying.

Not so this year.

Frequent bursts of market gyrations have kept things lively in the volatility space and has made betting on enduring turmoil hugely profitable.

While the S&P 500 .SPX is getting crushed to a degree not seen since the financial crisis a decade ago - the index is down 19 percent in the last three months - a trader who took a flyer on volatility early this year could be pocketing a profit of 70 percent or more.

“The thing that worked in the volatility space this year is the thing that almost never works - just buy and hold volatility,” said Matt Thompson, co-head of commodity trading adviser Typhon Capital Plc’s volatility group in Chicago.

Since volatility usually rises when stocks fall, owning volatility is a form of insurance and just like any other insurance there is a cost attached to it.

“Usually it costs a lot to own volatility,” said Jim Carney, chief executive officer at New York-based hedge fund Parplus Partners.

Most volatility instruments, including options, futures and exchange-traded notes (ETNs), lose value rapidly when stocks are calm or rising.

But with the stock market in the grips of almost daily wild swings, for the first time in years it has paid to own volatility, said Carney.

One example of how well that trade has worked is the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX.P), which is up about 72 percent this year. The ETN tracks the performance of the Cboe Volatility Index .VIX, a widely followed options-based barometer of expected near-term volatility for stocks.

VXX follows an index that tracks the price of two near-term VIX futures and seeks to maintain a constant one-month exposure to volatility by repeatedly selling first-month futures to buy second-month contracts.

“When the front month VIX future is below the second month there’s a huge cost to owning the product, but now with the front month around the same level of the second month, or above it, there is no cost,” said Carney.

Under normal conditions, first-month VIX futures are priced lower than second-month contracts as uncertainty about how stocks will fare leads traders to boost the volatility embedded in further-out expirations.

That is a problem for VXX, which essentially is constantly selling the relatively cheaper first-month contract and buying the more expensive second-month contract.

This constant erosion in value has caused VXX to hemorrhage money like few other products. A $100,000 invested in VXX at its inception in 2009 would be worth about $40 now.

But during times of market stress, such as now, first-month contracts become even more pricy than contracts with expirations further out. That gives VXX a fillip.

The VXX is on pace this year to finish up for the first time in its decade-long existence.

OMINOUS PORTENT

VXX’s success this year bodes ill for the overall stock market. While the ETN has only been around since 2009, estimating how the index might have fared in previous years paints a bleak picture for the near-term outlook for U.S. stocks.

“It wasn’t trading then, but 2007 and 2008 would have been up years,” said Vance Harwood, who runs the alternative investment website Six Figure Investing and has studied VIX products extensively.

Harwood estimates that VXX would have gained about 40 percent in 2007 and more than doubled in price in 2008, as the stock market got hit by the global financial crisis.

Others also see the similarity.

“This year looks a lot like 2007,” said Typhon’s Thompson.

“I am not predicting a 2008 next year but we had a pretty fundamental transition this year from the old low volatility regime to the new higher volatility regime,” Thompson said.

Regardless of whether VXX’s strong performance is a portent of trouble for stocks next year, higher levels of daily stock gyrations should draw more investors to the ETN, analysts said.

“With volatility in the 20s for the VIX, I think it is an excellent product to be long,” said Parplus’ Carney.

Presently, more than 50 million VXX shares change hands every day and the ETN has about $800 million in assets under management.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bump up into the $1 billion to $1.5 billion range,” said Harwood.

Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe

India: Modi has no reasons to regret

by N.S.Venkataraman- Dec 25, 2018

Dec 25, 2018

With 2019 parliamentary election in India hardly three months away and Prime Minister Modi having successfully completed nearly 5 years of governance, he has no reason for regret. Careful analysis of Mr. Modi’s governance clearly highlight the fact that every step he has taken with courage of conviction and malice towards none. Some of his initiatives may not have yielded the type of success that was expected and other initiatives may have exceeded the expectations. The ground reality is that overall performance is more than satisfactory.

Mr. Modi has launched combination of initiatives in socio economic spheres. What is conspicuous is that he has tried to boost the expectations and confidence of the people and took valiant efforts to build pride amongst the Indians about the traditional and historical value system in India and has taken steps for eradicating several shortfalls in social life of individuals, particularly the poor and downtrodden.

What is very vital is to take a holistic view of five years of governance instead of seeing several steps in isolated manner. Every action of Mr. Modi has resulted in positive impact in several aspects of life and this has to be clearly seen, understood and appreciated. While industrial and economic growth are vital aspects of governance , such growth has to be accompanied by growth in life style and living conditions of the people belonging to lower income group. This is precisely what Mr. Modi has strived hard to achieve.

Mr. Modi inherited a government five years back that was steeped in corruption, with people losing faith as to whether fair and corruption free government could be possible at all in India. Mr. Modi conclusively proved that it would be possible, as he ensured a corruption free central government at the decision making level. Of course , corruption has not been wiped out in India adequately so far particularly at the level of state governments and lower level of administration but Mr. Modi has given hope hat corruption free governance is possible and fighting against corruption is a long drawn process and it would be possible to succeed.

Mr. Modi’s campaign for clean India, efforts to spread yoga movement , construction of thousands of free toilets for poor house holds , opening of bank account for millions of poor people are measures of far reaching significance, which can not be reversed by any government in future. Such measures have enabled people to look and hope for better quality of life , boosting their personal pride and expectations.

While corruption in India has grown to gigantic proportions in the last several years before Mr. Modi took over and it called for very harsh steps to defeat the demon of corruption, demonetisation, anti binami act , promotion of digitalization are great strategies to fight the corruption at the fundamental level.

The banking system in India has undergone severe jolt before Mr,. Modi took over. The insolvency and bankruptcy act is a very important strategy to stabilize the banking operations and eliminate bad debt. Positive results are already being seen .

With his level of confidence in India’s future and pride, Mr. Modi has elevated the status of India in the international relations to new height and perhaps, even much more than what Jawaharlal Nehru could achieve in his time.

Due to historical reasons, India has difficult relations with China and Pakistan. Mr. Modi is managing the relationship with neighbouring countries tactfully to ensure military conflicts would not escalate that would cause set back in economic growth of the country.

There are of course , persisting problems of unemployment due to steady growth in population, distress in farming operations, communal clashes etc. which are due to basic and fundamental historical issues. No government can solve such issues in quick time and strategic approach is needed with short term and long term perseverance and planned strategies, which is what Mr. Modi is adopting. Mr. Modi’s make in India campaign, skill development programme for youth are all part of such strategies.

Apart from several positive and proactive measures which have been well discussed in the media, there have been number of other significant measures which have not received adequate attention. For example, today there are 499 government and private medical colleges offering more than 70,000 seats in India. About 24% of these colleges have come up after 2013-14 when Mr. Modi assumed office as Prime Minister of India. Solar power generation capacity in India was just around 1500 MW before Mr. Modi took over. In the last five years , the solar power generation capacity has now increased to 25000 MW. Wind power capacity has now reached around 35000 MW in 2018. So many other similar examples of proactive growth could be readily pointed out.

The forthcoming 2019 parliament election will be between Mr. Modi and several opposition leaders , though none of the opposition leader matches Mr. Modi in charisma and commitment, individually or collectively. Even in Bharatiya Janata Party, the gap between the stature of Mr. Modi and other leaders is very conspicuous.

The governance of Mr. Modi during the last five years is of Mr. Modi and by Mr. Modi and therefore , Mr.Modi has to adopt a strong campaign to carry forward his message to the people. His achievements have to be told effectively and positively in a convincing way , which Mr. Modi alone can do. He has to address as many meetings as possible, clearly realizing that India needs his leadership and continuation of the standards of governance that he has shown to be possible.

An Indian viewpoint Emerging South Asian scenario

• India is circumventing this problem by building other networks
• The first BIMSTEC military exercise was held in Pune in September 2018

2018-12-25

Despite striking similarities in culture and a shared history going back to ancient times, South Asia is one of the least integrated regions in the world. But there are visible signs of change both within South Asia and in the way the world looks at the region, avers  Dr. Swaran Singh, Professor at the Center for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. 

Currently a Senior Fellow at the Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka (NSSSL), Dr. Singh says that there is an increasing realisation, both among the constituent countries of the region and the world powers, that South Asia has to be seen as a whole in strategic, economic and developmental terms.

Changes 

“Anyone looking at South Asia as a whole, will notice two things: Firstly, there is visible prosperity. India, which is the biggest country in the region, is now among countries with the fastest rate of growth. Secondly, all countries in the region are now democratic. Earlier, South Asian countries, barring India and Sri Lanka, had been under military rule periodically (like Pakistan and Bangladesh) or under a monarchy (Bhutan and Nepal).” 

“And thanks to growing prosperity and democratization, South Asia is now witnessing greater empowerment of its peoples, though many issues and challenges are yet to be solved or met adequately, ” Dr.Singh said. 

The economic, political and social changes brought about by empowerment have created a vast market for goods and services, making South Asia a region attractive for outsiders with wares to sell, services to provide and money to invest.

Inter-Connectivity 

The  demand for trade necessitates inter-connectivity. Therefore, inter-connectivity is the buzzword now with many international structures being set up to work on it, such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Economic and Technical Cooperation (BIMSTEC). 

    
The region is also being considered relatively safe for investment. “The fear of an India-Pakistan showdown ending up in a nuclear war in the subcontinent has all, but disappeared. In fact, the focus is no longer on the India-Pakistan conflict, but on the increasing competition between India and China in the economic and strategic spheres,” Dr.Singh pointed out.

Turning away from the India-Pakistan conflict, the Western world  is now envisaging a role for Pakistan in the peace process in Afghanistan. Given the already existing Indian outreach in Afghanistan and China’s growing interest in that country, China  now wants India to jointly execute development projects there.

Terrorism  

Bur there is one nightmarish problem facing South Asia, and that is the scourge of terrorism, both domestic and cross-border. Therefore, in contrast to the past, the focus now is on terrorism and cross-border terrorism. 

“Afghanistan and Pakistan are seen as breeding grounds of terrorism,” Dr.Singh noted. 

In 2010, the US had imposed sanctions on the financial and support networks of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e Mohammed (JeM). The UN Security Council has been wanting to declare the JeM leader, Masood Azhar, as a “global terrorist” but China has been putting a spoke in the wheel to help out its “all-weather friend” Pakistan. Beijing’s plea is that the demand for the ban does not follow the UNSC’s requirements.  

The LeT, with links to Osama bin Laden and the Al-Qaeda network, had already been designated as a “foreign terrorist organization” in December 2001.  
“Terrorism is a big issue in the world today. But the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) had foreseen it way back in 1987 when it signed a Regional Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism. Taking the lead, India had proposed  a UN Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism in 1996,” Prof. Singh recalled.  

But deeply concerned about the lack of progress in suppressing terrorism, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been giving top priority to the subject in his dealings with other countries. He has told Pakistan in no uncertain terms that terrorism and talks cannot go together. This was reiterated when the present Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, made an offer to hold talks with India on all outstanding issues, Dr. Singh pointed out. 

Asked if the conflict with Pakistan on the issue of cross border terrorism is not hampering cooperation through an established institution like SAARC, Dr. Singh said that India is circumventing this problem by building other networks where Pakistan is not involved, such as BIMSTEC. 

“After the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Goa in 2016, Prime Minister Modi organized a BRICS-BIMSTEC outreach summit there. At that summit attended by Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, combating terrorism was given high importance, though BIMSTC had nothing to do with terrorism per se. 

The first BIMSTEC military exercise was held in Pune in September 2018.All member countries barring Nepal and Thailand, sent their teams. Apparently, China had dissuaded Nepal from participating, Dr. Singh said.

China’s entry

As an expert on China, Dr. Singh said that China’s entry into South Asia is a major new factor. In his view, China’s  engagement with the region is “continuous, enormous and influential.”  

He pointed out that out of the six major projects in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), four are in South Asia. China is also present in the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar Forum (BCIM). However, to date, China’s flagship project in the region is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China has ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan and is planning one in Myanmar. A China-India-Nepal-Corridor on the anvil. “Through these corridors, China will have a 1.5 billion strong market,” Dr. Singh pointed out. 

Checkbook  Diplomacy

It was during the 1997 world financial crisis, that China came up with the idea of extending its economic and strategic influence overseas through “checkbook” diplomacy, Dr. Singh said. “ When the US dithered at that time, China became pro-active.”

According to Dr. Singh, China’s interests are at once economic and strategic. China’s strategy is to try and get recipient countries into a debt trap so that they will, over time, surrender their assets in lieu of repaying loans, he said.  

Dr.Singh questioned the veracity of China’s claim that a good part of its loans is given at a very low rate of interest and some of the money is given as a grant. The initial jacking up of the cost of the project nullifies the effect of giving a part of the loan at a low rate of interest. And under the counter payments to influential local parties facilitate the acceptance of such deals, Dr. Singh observed.

“Extraction and usurpation are the twin aims of the BRI,” he added. 

Sovereignty

 
India’s opposition to the China-funded CPEC in Pakistan is based on the ground that a part of the corridor passes through a part of Kashmir which India considers its legal entitlement.

The Indian scholar said that China has no right to point an accusing finger at India in this regard as China had successfully prevented the Asian Development Bank from investing in the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh arguing that this State is part its Tibet Autonomous Region. 

“I tell the Chinese: Apply your own principle to India’s objection to CPEC, then you will appreciate New Delhi’s stand,” Dr. Singh said. 

Explaining India’s objection to China’s ring of ports around it  Dr. Singh said that India feels vulnerable because these ports have a dual purpose. However, China’s main aim is not to intimidate India as such but to checkmate the United States.

Objection Restricted TO CPEC

However, India’s objection to BRI is restricted to CPEC, Dr. Singh said. India’s attitude towards BRI softened when Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed that India is welcome to take up joint projects with China in third countries. There is already a proposal for India and China to jointly engage in development projects in war torn Afghanistan. 

Therefore, in the midst of conflicts, India and China are exploring spaces for cooperation. There is already cooperation between the Indian and Chinese navies in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somalian coast, Dr.Singh pointed out.

North and South Korea vow to reconnect railways, roads amid sanctions

South and North Korean officials unveil a direction signboard for Seoul and Pyongyang during a groundbreaking ceremony for reconnecting and repairing roads and railways across the divided Korean peninsula at Panmun Station in North Korea's border city of Kaesong on Dec 26, 2018. Source: AFP

 27th December 2018

NORTH and South Korea are looking to rekindle their long-estranged relationship with a project to reconnect railways and roads across the divided peninsula which have been cut off this the 1950-53 Korean War, but the construction of the plan could not start until sanctions against the north remain in place.

On Wednesday, the two Koreas held a symbolic groundbreaking ceremony that took place among a series of measures to improve bilateral relations agreed upon in September by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un.

Seoul maintained that the ceremony did not mark the start of work on reconnecting and modernising the infrastructure between the two countries, which were still technically at war after the conflict ended with a ceasefire and not a peace treaty.

SEE ALSO: North Korea seeks to model Vietnam’s economic development 

A South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman said the launch was a mere “expression of a commitment”, adding the construction depended on “progress on the North’s denuclearisation and circumstances concerning sanctions”.

However, Kim Yun Hyok, the North’s top railway official reiterated Pyongyang’s stance in insisting the South stop toeing the US line on maintaining sanctions on the North until it gives up its nuclear weapons.

“If (the South) keeps looking around to check someone’s mood and continues wavering, reunification would never be achieved,” Kim said at the ceremony at the Panmun railway station in the North’s border city of Kaesong, as quoted by the AFP.

North Korean attendees clap during a groundbreaking ceremony for reconnecting and repairing roads and railways across the divided Korean peninsula at Panmun Station in North Korea’s border city of Kaesong on Dec 26, 2018. Source: AFP

After his remarks, about a dozen delegates from both the North and the South stood along the railroad and pulled yellow levers to link up the railway tracks in a symbolic gesture.

South Korea had reportedly set aside US$620,000 for the effort, which is another example of the thaw in relations between the Koreas.

However, major economic initiatives have yet to take off as the North has been sluggish on fulfilling its denuclearisation pledge.

Kim had earlier agreed to work toward denuclearisation at a summit with US President Donald Trump in June, but negotiations have made little headway.

SEE ALSO: What’s the diplomatic glue that holds Cuba & North Korea together?

Pyongyang has expressed anguish at Washington’s insistence that sanctions remain until the North takes concrete steps to give up its nuclear arsenal.

“The South is trying to build on existing agreements, believing that advancing inter-Korean ties would have a positive impact on denuclearisation,” said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, as quoted by Reuters.

“But given the absence of actual construction, the North will keep pressing the South to make it happen despite sanctions, in line with Kim’s efforts to shore up his regime,” he added.

The Hazard of Environmental Morality

Efforts to combat climate change should be pragmatic above all else.

Steam and exhaust rise from smokestacks in Oberhausen, Germany on Jan. 6, 2017. (Lukas Schulze/Getty Images)

BY GERNOT WAGNER, CHRISTINE MERK

| DECEMBER 24, 2018, 6:52 AM

One pillar of conservative policy doctrine is that moral hazards should be avoided at all costs. Criticisms of universal health care, for example, are based on the idea that shielding individuals from some of the consequences of their decisions creates an incentive for riskier behavior. Many take the argument one step further, equating moral hazard with moral failing: government policy, the argument goes, makes people too dependent on handouts and crowds out personal responsibility.

The left is not immune to such lines of argument, either. On that side, the criticism typically focuses on policies that appear to free individuals from the responsibility of doing what’s right in the name of the common good. We all know, one argument goes, that we need to change our fossil-fueled lifestyles to stop climate change. Policies that encourage biking more and driving less, for example, are moral. Those that free individuals to do what they want (especially if it runs counter to the common good) are not.

Moral hazard is real, but using it as an argument for or against regulation is oftentimes a distraction—or worse. Seat-belt laws, for example, have reduced road deaths despite potentially encouraging riskier driving. Another telling example is environmentalists’ initial reactions to both climate adaptation and carbon capture and storage. In the 1990s, some environmentalists, among them Vice President Al Gore, went on the record decrying calls for adapting to climate change as a distraction from the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Accepting the necessity of adaptations, such as building seawalls or moving to higher ground altogether, would have been psychologically difficult in the 1990s, since it would have meant admitting that returning the earth to its pristine state is no longer possible. It would thus be an implicit acknowledgment that it is too late to stop climate change altogether, which would only add to the long list of difficulties in communicating the need to cut greenhouse gas pollution.

These days, of course, many environmentalists, including Gore, do point to the need to adapt. Adaptation features heavily in the 2010 Cancun Agreements and the Paris Agreement adopted in December 2015. And far from crowding out other kinds of environmental policies, the argument goes, adaptation might even serve as a wake-up call for more rapid cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
Yet moral hazard has once again resurfaced in climate conversations, this time in the context of carbon removal and solar geoengineering. Carbon removal refers to technologies that suck excess carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Solar geoengineering refers to proposed interventions that would reflect or release a small fraction of sunlight back into space in an effort to cool the planet.
Carbon removal and solar geoengineering are controversial. In part, that’s for good reason. They are also very different. The former helps address the root cause of climate change. The latter does not. For the most part, solar geoengineering merely masks the effects of excess greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, but it might also be significantly faster and cheaper. Expert opinion differs on if and how either might play a role in a broader climate policy portfolio.

Much like with adaptation before it, environmentalists have rallied around the possibility that mere talk of geoengineering could discourage much needed mitigation and adaptation measures. To be sure, in a world of fully rational climate policy, both carbon removal and solar geoengineering would lead to less mitigation and adaptation. But the world is far from rational. Those grasping for excuses not to cut greenhouse gas emissions will surely point to both as yet another reason to delay sensible climate policies. Newt Gingrich has.

Sensible climate policy must rise above that level of argument, though, and take seriously all options for mitigating climate change. Think of carbon removal as a liposuction for the planet. Solar geoengineering could be thought of as statins to treat high levels of cholesterol, helping to prevent a heart attack. It is clear that the best approach would have been consistent diet and exercise. And that should still be part of the answer, but it might be too late for those who have already lived unhealthy lifestyles for too long.

As for how these new technologies might change behavior, recent polling data is instructive. A representative survey of the U.S. public probing attitudes toward carbon removal found that those told about carbon removal appear slightly less willing to support policies that would mitigate emissions. Meanwhile, public perception surveys and focus groups from several countries have shown that people are deeply skeptical about any possible solar geoengineering interventions, and that their potential doesn’t necessarily change behavior. In one study done in Germany, however, respondents were asked to offset their own carbon emissions after either being told about solar geoengineering or not. That study showed that those told about solar geoengineering actually appear a bit more likely to pay for offsets and buy more of them.

The question, however, is not whether either technology will encourage or discourage—crowd in or crowd out—emissions cuts. There is clearly potential for both. But the danger that innovations could slow necessary behavioral changes should not be used as an argument against possibly beneficial policies and technologies, much like the potential for moral hazard is not a good argument against health insurance or seat belts. If anything, the real question for those concerned with climate policy is how to encourage the crowding-in effect and combat those who use moral hazard arguments to avoid more difficult policy decisions.

Before the flood: Turkey's new dam set to wash away past despite uncertain future

Villages and ancient sites will be flooded by Turkey's new Ilisu dam in 2019. In Iraq, it could also deepen a water crisis

A man helps a child walk across planks to reach a 'cafe' set in the waters of the Tigris River overlooked by Hasankeyf (AFP)

Kieran Cooke

Thursday 20 December 2018

Editor’s note: Two of the biggest dam projects in the world – one in Turkey, the other in Ethiopia – are nearing completion. Both are likely to profoundly affect the lives of millions in the Middle East and bring further tensions to already severely water-stressed regions.

Before the flood Turkey&#3... by on Scribd

Depression of fathers and their daughters linked, survey finds

Study of 3,176 UK families finds raised risk of 18-year-olds with depression if their fathers had similar feelings after their birth
Fathers, like mothers, can experience post-natal depression, say academics. Photograph: Bill Cheyrou/Alamy

Sarah Marsh @sloumarsh-Wed 26 Dec 2018 16.00 GMT

A teenage girl is more at risk of developing mental health problems if her father has experienced post-natal depression, according to research.

A study of more than 3,000 families in the Bristol area in England found that one in 20 fathers experienced post-natal depression in the weeks after their child was born. Researchers found a link between men with the condition and their daughters experiencing depression at the age of 18.

The “small but significant” risk applied only to daughters. Sons were found to be unaffected, said the study, published in the journal JAMA Psychiatry. The survey, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, which has been running since 1991, looked at 3,176 father and child pairs.

The authors said it was unclear why girls might be more affected than boys at that age but that it could be linked to specific aspects of father-daughter relationships as girls went through adolescence.

They said the findings could have implications for perinatal services, which traditionally focus on identifying and treating post-natal depression in mothers.

Paul Ramchandani, of the Faculty of Education at the University of Cambridge, said: “Research from this study of families in Bristol has already shown that fathers can experience depression in the post-natal period as well as mothers. What is new in this paper is that we were able to follow up the young people from birth through to the age of 18, when they were interviewed about their own experience of depression. Those young people whose fathers had been depressed back when they were born had an increased risk of depression at age 18 years.”

Ramchandani added that the team also looked at some of the ways in which depression in fathers might have affected children.

He said: “It appears that depression in fathers is linked [to] an increased level of stress in the whole family, and that this might be one way in which offspring may be affected. Whilst many children will not be affected by parental depression in this way, the findings of this study highlight the importance of providing appropriate help to fathers, as well as mothers.”

Mark Williams, the founder of the lobby group Fathers Reaching Out and a campaigner concerned with paternal depression, said: “In my experience of working with families it’s sometimes only the father who is suffering in silence. But sadly very few are asked about their mental health after becoming a parent.”

Previous research by the same academics found post-natal depression in fathers was linked to behavioural and emotional problems in their offspring at the ages of three-and-a-half and seven. The researchers believed this might be due to paternal depression causing conflict between partners and prompting maternal depression. 

'Virtual tumour' new way to see cancer

An avatar of a scientist exploring a 3D tumour in a virtual reality laboratory

Fergus Walsh@BBCFergus Walsh-26 December 2018

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26 December 2018

Scientists in Cambridge have built a virtual reality (VR) 3D model of cancer, providing a new way to look at the disease.

The tumour sample, taken from a patient, can be studied in detail and from all angles, with each individual cell mapped.

Researchers say it will increase our understanding of cancer and help in the search for new treatments.

The project is part of an international research scheme.

How it was done

• Researchers start with a 1mm cubed piece of breast cancer tissue biopsy, containing around 100,000 cells
• Wafer thin slices are cut, scanned and then stained with markers to show their molecular make-up and DNA characteristics
• The tumour is rebuilt using virtual reality
• The 3D tumour can be analysed within a virtual reality laboratory

The VR system allows multiple users from anywhere in the world to examine the tumour.

Prof Greg Hannon, director of Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute (CRUK), told the BBC: "No-one has examined the geography of a tumour in this level of detail before; it is a new way of looking at cancer."

The 'virtual tumour' project is part of CRUK's Grand Challenge Awards.

Within a 'virtual' laboratory, Prof Hannon and I became avatars, whilst the cancer was represented by a multi-coloured mass of bubbles.

Although the human tissue sample was about the size of a pinhead, within the virtual laboratory it could be magnified to appear several metres across.

To explore the tumour in more detail, the VR system allowed us to 'fly through' the cells.

The virtual tumour we were looking at through our headsets was taken from the lining of the breast milk ducts.

A group of cells, circled, have broken away from the main tumour mass

As Prof Hannon rotated the model, he pointed to a group of cells that were flying off from the main group: "Here you can see some tumour cells which have escaped from the duct.

"This may be the point at which the cancer spread to surrounding tissue - and became really dangerous - examining the tumour in 3D allows us to capture this moment."

Prof Karen Vousden, CRUK's chief scientist, runs a lab at the Francis Crick Institute in London which examines how specific genes help protect us from cancer, and what happens when they go wrong.

She told the BBC: "Understanding how cancer cells interact with each other and with healthy tissue is critical if we are going to develop new therapies - looking at tumours using this new system is so much more dynamic than the static 2D versions we are used to."

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