‘Minya-stan’: Egypt's Copts fear attacks by militants and security forces

Copts mourn Emad and David, who were shot dead Wednesday by a police officer who been assigned to protect a church in Minya

Mourners gather in Qena to commemorate the killings of Coptic Christians (supplied)

Sunday 16 December 2018

MINYA, Egypt - In front of the house of Emad Sadiq, hundreds of mourners gathered on the way to the coptic cemetary. The screams of women could be heard a kilometre away, while the lines of men extended for metres.

"Each year they do this to us. Where are you God? I wish they would suffer like we are,” the widow of Emad Sadiq and mother of David said.

On 12 December, in the latest attack in the town of Minya south of Cairo, a focus for sectarian mobs targeting Egypt's Christian community, Emad, 50, and David, 21, were shot dead by a lower ranking police officer who was guarding the Church of Nahdet al-Qadasa, which had days earlier tightened the security presence and decorated the entrance with colourful banners.

A leaked CCTV shows the police officer getting in an argument with both men, before shooting them with his machine gun. According to the medical report published by Minya’s top Health Inspector Hani Shehata, the two victims were shot in the head.

An eye witness told Middle East Eye that Emad and David were working late in a construction site, and went to talk with the officer.

“Their voice started to get louder, and the officer showered them with bullets,” he said. The officer was arrested, and was ordered by the prosecution to be detained for four days pending investigation.

'Should we go? We are humans like all people. They won't be happy until our blood is shed on the streets'

- Traiz, mourner

A day after the killing, around 2,500 people gathered in front of the victims’ house, while around 200 members of the riot police roamed the area, and surrounded the village of the victims until the
funeral was over.

“We have had enough,” Ghattas Said, one of the mourners told Middle East Eye.

“I am asking the officials and those responsible for ruling the country: Where is justice? Where is mercy? Are they guarding us or killing us?”

The tragedy that rocked Minya's community comes a month after an attack on buses that were returning from the St Samuel the Confessor monastery, killing seven.

David, one of the victims (supplied)

Inside the small church, the widowed mother collapsed in front of the two coffins, as screaming overwhelmed the scene. Quietly standing away from the coffins, attempting to calm mourners, stood Anba Makarios, a Minya bishop.

He said the that killings were "more dangerous than the monastery attack as the perpetrator was one of the police officers who is supposedly assigned to guard the church.”

“What is sadder is that it was difficult for us to even hold prayers for the funeral. Minya needs the intervention of the President,” the bishop said diplomatically.

However other mourners were not so calm in showing their grief.

“Our houses are burned in mid-daylight. Our people were displaced. And our businesses are ripped off,” said Traiz, a 69-year-old.

“Should we go? We are humans like all people. They won't be happy until our blood is shed on the streets.”

'We are not animals'

The pessimism among the Coptic community has also reached the youth, who held a short protest at the same time as the funeral, demanding retribution for the victims. One of them was Abanoub Samir.

“Blood has filled the streets. Minya has become like Afghanistan. Maybe we should call it Minya-stan. Nothing is sacred for them. Neither the cathedral, our big homes, or our small private residencies,” Samir said.

“We are not animals. Even if we are animals, the government and the terrorists would not have treated us like this, we are humans just like you,” he said, adding that such incidents will only fuel more sectarianism as the officer who fired the shots was a Muslim.

“What I fear is the reprisal of the police, since now one of their own will be in jail. I don’t really trust they will guard the churches well. Plus, when the media and the attention is gone, they will start arresting those who protested and showed their anger,” said another young women, Nehal Mounir.

'When the strike comes from the guard it is treason…the officer used his official weapon, which you, me, and those who are killed, pay taxes for'

- Bishop Bimen

The Ministry of Interior has not issued a statement to comment on the incident. A relative of the victims, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that a small delegation from the Minya Security Directorate visited the family and attempted to convince them of settling and saying that the killing was due to a personal dispute.

However, following the crowded funeral, which was covered by very few media outlets, the public prosecution published a statement to say the killing took place "after an argument that started days ago”.

In Qena and Minya, worshipers on Sunday held a mass, to commemorate Emad and his son. Egypt’s media ignored the incident, and the majority of talk show programmes made sure to highlight that the two sides had a fight prior to the killings taking place.

Egypt's Coptic Pope Tawadros II described the killings as “painful and strange” on a televised interview, adding that he expects “strong, fast, and decisive decisions to take place to absorb the tension and anger in Minya.”

Bishop Bimen, Bishop of Naqadah Qena, told the Coptic Channel MESat, that the state should work on preventing such incidents before they take place.

“When the strike comes from the guard it is treason…the officer used his official weapon which you, me, and those who are killed, pay taxes for.”

Explainer: Is Yemen finally on the road to peace?

FILE PHOTO: Houthi militants patrol a street where pro-Houthi protesters demonstrated against the Saudi-led coalition in Hodeidah, Yemen December 10, 2018. Picture taken December 10, 2018. REUTERS/Abduljabbar Zeyad/File Photo

Aziz El Yaakoubi, Mohammed Ghobari-DECEMBER 16, 2018

DUBAI/ADEN (Reuters) - Weeks of U.N. shuttle diplomacy and Western pressure delivered a breakthrough in Yemen peace efforts when the warring parties last week agreed to cease fighting in a contested Red Sea port city and withdraw forces.

The challenge lies in securing an orderly troop withdrawal from Hodeidah, a lifeline for millions of Yemenis facing starvation, amid deep mistrust among the parties.

At the same time, the United Nations must prepare for critical discussions on a wider truce and a framework for political negotiations to end the conflict.

The nearly four-year-old war, which has killed tens of thousands of people, pits the Iran-aligned Houthi group against other Yemeni factions fighting alongside the Saudi-led coalition trying to restore the government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

The Houthis, who ousted Hadi’s administration from the capital Sanaa in 2014, and their coalition foes are due to start implementing the Hodeidah ceasefire on Tuesday.

Coalition leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are under pressure from Western allies including the United States and Britain, which supply arms and intelligence to the Sunni Muslim alliance, to end the war as Riyadh comes under scrutiny after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

WHY IS HODEIDAH SO IMPORTANT?

It is the main port used to feed Yemen’s 30 million people and has been the focus of fighting this year, raising global fears that a full-scale assault could cut off supply lines and lead to mass starvation. The war and the ensuing economic collapse has left 15.9 million people facing severe hunger.

The Houthis currently control the city. Coalition-backed Yemeni forces have massed on the outskirts in an offensive aimed at seizing the seaport. Their aim is to weaken the group by cutting off its main supply line.

The alliance, bogged down in military stalemate, also wants to secure the coast along the Red Sea, one of the most important trade routes in the world for oil tankers.

The coalition captured the southern port of Aden in 2015 and a string of ports on the western coast, but the Houthis control most towns and cities in Yemen, including Hodeidah and Sanaa.

Analysts say implementing the agreement is important, as any lapse in momentum could be used by the coalition as a justification to resume its offensive on Hodeidah.

WHERE DO THINGS STAND NOW?

Griffiths said when the deal was announced on Thursday that troop withdrawal from the port should begin “within days” and later from the city. International monitors would be deployed and all armed forces would pull back completely within 21 days.

The UAE has massed thousands of Yemeni forces — drawn from southern separatists, local units from the Red Sea coastal plain and a battalion led by a nephew of late former president Ali Abdullah Saleh — on the outskirts of Hodeidah.

A U.N.-chaired committee including both sides would oversee withdrawal of forces. The United Nations has said it would play a leading role in the port, but the agreement did not spell out who would run the city.

In remarks illustrating the risks of a resumption of the bloodshed in Hodeidah, each side has said the city would ultimately fall under their control.

Griffiths has asked the U.N. Security Council to urgently pass a resolution backing deployment of a robust monitoring regime, headed by retired Dutch Major General Patrick Cammaert.

The envoy is also working on securing other confidence-building steps hanging over from the peace talks, including reopening Sanaa airport and supporting the central bank.

Slideshow (3 Images)

WHAT’S THE NEXT STEP TO PEACE?

A second round of talks is due to be held in January on a framework for negotiations and transitional governing body.

The Houthis, who have no traction in the south, want a meaningful role in Yemen’s government and to rebuild their stronghold of Saada in the north of the country, analysts said.

The analysts say Saudi Arabia can live with a Houthi political role as long as they disarm. Riyadh says it does not want a military movement like Lebanon’s Iran-allied Hezbollah near its borders.

“Moving forward, the inclusion of key factions that have so far been excluded from the process will be key,” said Adam Baron of the European Council for Foreign Relations.

Yemen’s fractious armed groups and parties, numerous before the war, have proliferated further since 2015, and each has their own agenda. The war also revived old strains between North and South Yemen, formerly separate countries which united into a single state in 1990 under slain former president Saleh.

Southern separatists resented concentration of resources in the north. Some of the Shi’ite Zaydi sect chafed as their north heartland became impoverished and in the late 1990s formed the Houthi group, which fought the army and forged ties with Iran. Jihadists set up an al Qaeda wing.

Mass pro-democracy protests in 2011 forced Saleh to step down after some of his former allies turned on him and the army split. His deputy Hadi was elected to a two-year term to oversee a democratic transition, but was undermined.

In 2014, the Houthis seized Sanaa aided by Saleh loyalists, forcing Hadi to share power. When a federal constitution was proposed, both Houthis and southern separatists rejected it.

The Houthis arrested Hadi in 2015, but he escaped and fled to Aden. The coalition then entered the war on Hadi’s side.

Additional reporting and writing by Ghaida Ghantous, Editing by William Maclean

Afghanistan Drifting Towards Election Process

by Ali Sukhanver-Dec 15, 2018

Dec 14, 2018

The US diplomat ZalmayMamozy Khalilzad had been the highest-ranking Muslim American in the George W.Bush administration. His diplomatic services with reference to countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan have been so marvelous that he remained‘the blue-eyed boy’ of every US government. At present Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation at the US State Department.

Mr. Zalmay Khalilzad is an Afghan by birth that is why now the Trump administration has given him this fresh assignment of looking into the Afghan affairs on behalf of the US State Department. This assignment is in fact a mission of securing a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Afghanistan. It is being hoped that Mr. Zalmay Khalilzad would succeed in finding out a viable solution to the Afghan issue. In continuation to his new assignment he is visiting the region now-a-days and his sole purpose is to speed up the peace efforts in Afghanistan. According to different media reports, Zalmay Khalilzad has expressed his desire of having a peace agreement with the Taliban before the upcoming Afghan presidential elections which are expected on 20th April 219. There are rumors that these elections could be delayed for some time because President Ghani does not find the law and order situation of the country suitable for the elections.

Experts on Afghanistan Political affairs are of the opinion that President Ashraf Ghani is apprehendingTaliban’s influence and interference in the election process. In spite of President Ghani’s all possible efforts and in spite of all US’ struggle, the influence of the Taliban could not be minimized in the Afghan social and political set-up. The Taliban were there, they are there and they would be there in near and far future. According to a report prepared by BBC , the Taliban are now in full control of 14 districts (that’s 4% of the country) and have an active and open physical presence in a further 263 (66%), significantly higher than previous estimates of Taliban strength. ‘In Afghanistan, about 15million people – half the population – are living in areas that are controlled by the Taliban. Taliban fighters, whom US-led forces spent billions of dollars trying to defeat, are now openly active in 70% of Afghanistan,’ says another report. In short, the Taliban are a reality which could not be and must not beignored. Any effort of throwing them out of the Afghan scenario would simply effect the law and order situation badly. It is just his day-dreaming if President Ashraf Ghani thinks that by postponing the elections, he would get time for wiping-offthe Taliban influence from the Afghan society.

            As far as the role of Taliban inthe social and political scenario of Afghanistan is concerned the people ofAfghanistan rank them as the ‘sons of the soil’. No doubt they are a group ofpeople with a particular philosophy of their own but they do belong to theAfghan lands. In spite of the fact that the western media has ever beendefaming them as a group of ‘miscreants’ and a ‘gang’ of foreign supported‘terrorists’ but the people of Afghanistan have a different view about them. Ifthey were really the terrorists and criminals they could not have achievedunprecedented success in the battlefield as well as in the recent diplomaticventures in Russia and central Asia. The fact of the matter is that the Talibanhave never accepted the interference of the foreign forces in Afghanistan.

Since day one they have been fighting against the foreign invaders andintriguers. The only target they have set before them is to kick out theforeign forces from Afghanistan by creating all possible hindrances and hurdlesin the way of the foreign invaders. If Zalmay Mamozy Khalilzad is reallyserious and sincere in settling the matters in Afghanistan he must keep in mindthat no such effort could ever be successful without involving the Taliban. Itis another reality that the Taliban could never be pressurized by use of force;the only way to deal with them is to convince them to join peace-talks.

But atthe same time it must also be kept in mind that the Taliban do not have a verypleasant and positive experience regarding the peace-talks, arranged in thepast. They are always deceived and betrayed. Let us hope this time history doesnot repeat itself.

Economic and regional issues upstage Hindutva plank in Indian State elections

Hindu Yuva Vahini demonstrating for building of the Lord Rama temple in Ayodhya in place of a 16th century mosque

 Saturday, 15 December 2018 

Results of the recently-concluded State Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram show that economic and regional issues have upstaged “Hindutva” – the ideology of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is based on Hindu-majoritarian dominance over religious minorities, particularly the Muslims. 

While economic issues were in the forefront in the Hindi-speaking Hindu majority North Indian States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, regional identity issues were at the fore in Telangana and Mizoram, the former in South India and the later in the North East.

The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi upstaged the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, and regional parties the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) and Mizo National Front (MNF) crushed national parties like Congress and BJP. Both national parties had failed to grasp and address regional sentiments which had both cultural and economic ingredients.

Hindutva, vigorously touted by the BJP and its affiliated organisations like the Rashtriya Swyamsewak Sangh (RSS), came a cropper or lost ground significantly  even in States like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh where it had been the dominant ideology for more than a decade.

Realising that it had failed to keep its promise to usher in “Achchey Din” (Good Days); that there had been economic progress without job generation; and that certain major decisions like demonetisation had backfired; BJP governments, both in the Center and the States, had revived the Hindutva movement to capture the imagination of the voters.

The BJP re-started a movement to build a temple for Lord Rama at Ayodhya at a place where a 16th Century mosque stood before it was demolished by Hindu fanatics on 6 December 1992.

Sakshi Maharaj, a BJP MP from Uttar Pradesh (where Ayodhya is located) rekindled his demand that all major mosques, including the celebrated Jama Masjid in Delhi, should be demolished because these were, according to him, built on demolished Hindu temples.

“I am 100% sure that underneath each of these mosques there will be a Hindu idol,” he asserted.

Since antagonism towards minority Muslims is the foundation on which Hindutva is based, eating beef or carrying beef or transporting cattle for slaughter were subjected to vigilante attacks. Mobs of Hindu fanatics publicly lynched Muslims often on an unfounded basis in various parts of India.   

The Hindustan Times quoted the IndiaSpend website to say that between 2010 and 2017, 86% of 28 Indians killed in 63 incidents of cow-related violence, were Muslims. And 97% of these attacks were reported after Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in May 2014. About half the cow-related violence – 32 of 63 cases – were reported from States governed by the BJP.


Reasons for defeat

But Hindutva propaganda and actions of its vigilante groups failed to sway voters in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh this time round.

Substantial sections had veered away from the BJP. These were worried about their economic condition which had gone from bad to worse during Modi’s rule at the Center and the BJP’s rule in their States.

According to IndiaSpend between 2004 and 2016, Madhya Pradesh had recorded 16,932 farmer suicides—more than three every day. The count was the fourth highest nationwide. And BJP had been ruling Madhya Pradesh since 2003.

Chhattisgarh followed with 12,979 suicides—nearly three every day. It was fifth highest, nationwide. And BJP had been ruling the State since 2003. Rajasthan ranked the 11th highest with 5,582 suicides during the same period.

The BJP Government’s only answer to agrarian distress has been to raise the Minimum Support Price (MSP). But the MSP, even if delivered efficiently, has only been a palliative and an inadequate one at that.

The farm sector’s problems stem from its adverse terms of trade with the industrial sector; price fluctuations due to natural and man-made causes; the role played by middlemen; and the lack of credit and local storage facilities. MSP is not a medicine for this illness.

Both the urban and the rural populations suffered due to the sudden demonetisation in 2016. Stress due to demonetisation, which made 86% of Indian currency worthless all of a sudden, led to more than 100 suicides. At least 1.5 million lost their jobs and 150 million were without pay for weeks.

Demonetisation was a comprehensive failure in terms of its goal, which was to unearth black money. In India, ill-gotten cash is converted into shares, gold and real estate or stashed away abroad. In 2014, Modi promised to put all the black money unearthed into people’s accounts with each Indian getting a bonanza of Indian Rs. 15 lakh. But the poor man’s money in the bank only dwindled, while the rich and the influential looted the banks and absconded.

When he came to power with a massive majority in 2014, Modi promised to generate 20 million jobs a year. But more than 7.2 million jobs meant for the 15-24 age group “were lost” over the last four years. Job creation in India is at an eight-year low. This created an undercurrent of anger in the middle classes.

New investment is the lowest in 13 years. Bank credit growth had sunk to a 63-year low. The rich looted the State banks and scooted. The $ 1.77 billion Punjab National Bank (PNB) scam hit the Indian banking sector very hard. But Nirav Modi a Modi cohort, who was involved, fled the country without repaying his debts. In February 2016, billionaire Vijay Mallya, who siphoned off $ 1.4 billion, fled to the UK allegedly with Government connivance.

In October 2017, bad bank loans and Non-Performing Assets (NPAs), stood at $ 145.6 billion. This accounted for 12.6% of the total loans given by the nationalised banks. NPAs in nationalised banks accounted for about 87% of gross NPAs by the end of March 2017. This meant that Modi was responsible.

Cozying up to the corporate sector, while turning a blind eye and a deaf ear to the farmers’ and the middle income groups’ plight, the BJP Government had written off loans to the corporate sector to the tune of $ 31 billion.


Fruitless trips abroad

According to information collected through the Right To Information Act, Modi had made 41 trips to over 50 countries in the first four years of office, spending 165 days away from India. All that was ostensibly for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for his much-touted ‘Make in India’ project.

But the results were woefully short of the promise. Since the announcement of ‘Make in India’ on 15 August 2015, there is no evidence that manufacturing has gathered momentum. On the contrary, it seems to have lost steam. In 2016-17, the manufacturing sector had weakened considerably.


Foreign Direct Investment

There has definitely been a spike in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India since Modi assumed power in 2014. But FDI has not been going into the manufacturing sector which at once strengthens the economy and generates employment.

The Services have attracted $ 64 billion in FDI, 17.42% of total. This sector comprises financial services, banking, insurance, non-financial/business services, outsourcing, research and development, courier, technology testing analysis.

Telecommunications has attracted $ 30 billion in FDI, 8.18% of total. Computer software and hardware have attracted $ 29.8 billion in FDI, 8.11% of total.

Overall, the impact of FDI on employment generation has been poor. The rural economy has not gained. Rural distress has worsened and the urban-rural divide has widened.

Unless Prime Minister Modi and his Government address these issues in the next five months, defeat in the May 2019 parliamentary elections cannot be ruled out.

Dissecting China’s volte-face on tiger, rhino protection

Some local public health officials claim those criticising the 1993 ban do so to undermine TCM and introduce Western pharmaceutical products into China. Source: Shutterstock

By Peter Li | 14th December 2018 | @peterlee197499

ON OCT 29, 2018, China announced its decision to lift a ban imposed in 1993 on rhino and tiger products used for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM).

This announcement was an official reversal in favour of the medicinal and other uses of rhino and tiger products, and is arguably a monumental setback for China’s wildlife protection efforts.

Conservation and wildlife experts around the world expressed deep concern over the long-term impact of this policy change on the fate of the remaining individuals of the two iconic species in the wild.

SEE ALSO: China relaxes ban on tiger and rhino parts for ‘special’ purposes

To Chinese wildlife activists, the policy change represented a major blow to China’s reputation in the global coalition for wildlife protection.

In the face of this global outcry, on Nov 12 Chinese authorities changed track, stating that the lifting of the ban has been “postponed after study”. It is unclear how long this postponement will last.

But why did China lift the ban in the first place?

The 1993 policy prohibits the use of rhino and tiger parts in TCM. Source: AFP

As a famous saying goes, Rome was not built in a day. The policy reversal was a result of years of efforts made by a coalition of forces since 1993.

China has a formidable wildlife farming business interest. The tiger and rhino farming businesses are the most vocal supporters of the policy reversal.

In the late 1980s, two commercial breeding centres for raising tigers purposely for use in TCM were created with local government endorsement.

For years, they have lobbied for a reversal of the 1993 policy. Their effort was most coordinated in 2015-2016, when China’s National People’s Congress was revising the largely defunct and toothless Wildlife Protection Law adopted in 1989.

China’s single rhino farmer is another active opponent of the 1993 ban. The business was started in 2005 for the purpose of using farmed rhino horns for TCM use – 12 years after the 1993 ban was implemented.

In 2006, the first group of 12 rhinos were imported to the farm’s breeding ‘experiment centre’ in Hainan Island.

SEE ALSO: China postpones move to undo ban on tiger, rhino parts

Close to 100 or more rhinos were later shipped to the centre and a new facility in Southwest Yunnan. To the parent company, ending the 1993 ban on the medicinal use of rhino horns is the only way to achieve a return on investment.

Supporters of wildlife utilisation make up the second largest group that has worked for reversing the 1993 policy. It includes some of the country’s top scientists in wildlife and public health fields.

One academic in the field of medicine and public health has defended the exploitation of wildlife in nationalistic terms, accusing critics of entertaining ulterior motives for undermining TCM and for introducing Western pharmaceutical products into China. 

A store selling TCM products in Taiwan. Source: Shutterstock

The most responsible actors behind the policy change, however, are the Chinese authorities themselves.

In October 2005, the Chinese government supported a policy proposal on turning TCM production into a strategic and globally-oriented business to be protected by the state. The fact that rhino farming was started in 2006 was partly attributable to the state’s promotion of TCM production.

The two above-mentioned tiger farms could not have survived much longer with the 1993 ban in place. For years, the two farms were engaged in the production and marketing of ‘tiger bone wine’, in contravention of the ban and with local authorities turning a blind eye.

Following the launch of the rhino farming ‘experiment’, the State Forestry Bureau reportedly pulled together a group of experts and scientists to certify the rhino horn shaving technology.

In 2012, the People’s Daily, the official organ of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, gave a glowing report on the rhino farming operation calling it a “breakthrough” that could contribute to public health of humanity.

The most decisive step taken by the Chinese government was the revised Wildlife Protection Law (WPL) of 2016. In this revised WPL, Article 25 advanced the concept of “captive-bred offspring”, thereby allowing captive animals to be treated differently from animals in the wild, while Article 29 allowed the use of these animals for medicinal purposes.

SEE ALSO: Tiger, clouded leopard skins among illegal wildlife parts seized in Malaysia 

These two articles laid the groundwork for the future lifting of the 1993 ban.

It’s important to recognise that it’s not entirely clear why Chinese authorities back-flipped on the policy change just two weeks after it was announced.

The postponement could have been the result of the global criticism, which seemed to shock the Chinese authorities. Alternatively, it could also be due to the lack of consensus on the best implementation measures for managing the trade of rhino and tiger parts.

To worldwide wildlife protectionists, there is only one solution to the current confusion: reinstating the 1993 ban.

The commercial interest of the wildlife farming industry is no national interest of China. The Chinese authorities should stand on the right side of history.

This piece was first published at Policy Forum, Asia and the Pacific’s platform for public policy analysis and opinion. 

'Brutal news': global carbon emissions jump to all-time high in 2018

Rapid cuts needed to protect billions of people from rising emissions due to increase in use of cars and coal
Almost all countries are contributing to the rise in emissions, with China up 4.7%, the US by 2.5% and India by 6.3% in 2018. Photograph: Michel Euler/AP

Damian Carrington @dpcarrington-Wed 5 Dec 2018 18.00 GMT

Global carbon emissions will jump to a record high in 2018, according to a report, dashing hopes a plateau of recent years would be maintained. It means emissions are heading in the opposite direction to the deep cuts urgently needed, say scientists, to fight climate change.

The rise is due to the growing number of cars on the roads and a renaissance of coal use and means the world remains on the track to catastrophic global warming. However, the report’s authors said the emissions trend can still be turned around by 2020, if cuts are made in transport, industry and farming emissions.

The research by the Global Carbon Project was launched at the UN climate summit in Katowice, Poland, where almost 200 nations are working to turn the vision of tackling climate change agreed in Paris in 2015 into action. The report estimates CO2 emissions will rise by 2.7% in 2018, sharply up on the plateau from 2014-16 and 1.6% rise in 2017.

Almost all countries are contributing to the rise, with emissions in China up 4.7%, in the US by 2.5% and in India by 6.3% in 2018. The EU’s emissions are near flat, but this follows a decade of strong falls.

“The global rise in carbon emissions is worrying, because to deal with climate change they have to turn around and go to zero eventually,” said Prof Corinne Le Quéré, at the University of East Anglia,who led the research published in the journal Nature. “We are not seeing action in the way we really need to. This needs to change quickly.”

The current Paris agreement pledges from nations will only limit global warming to 3C, while even a rise of 1.5C will be disastrous for many people, according to the world’s scientists.

Le Quéré said: “I hope that by 2020, when [governments] have to come back with stronger commitments, we will then see a turning point.”

The International Energy Agency’s data also shows rising emissions in 2018. Its executive director, Fatih Birol, said: “This turnaround should be another warning to governments as they meet in Katowice this week.”

“Every year of rising emissions puts economies and the homes, lives and livelihoods of billions of people at risk,” said Christiana Figueres, at the Mission 2020 campaign, who was the UN climate diplomat overseeing the Paris agreement. “We are in the age of exponentials,” she said, with renewable energy and electric cars expanding rapidly, but with the extreme weather impacts of climate change doing the same. “We have to ensure it is the solutions exponential curve that is going to win the race.”

Prof David Reay, at the University of Edinburgh, UK, said: “This annual balance sheet for global carbon is comprehensive and scientifically robust. Its message is more brutal than ever: we are deep in the red and heading still deeper. For all our sakes, world leaders must now do what is required.”
Harjeet Singh, at ActionAid International, said news of the emissions’ rise should galvanise those at the climate summit: “There’s way too much complacency in the air at these talks.”

The “dark news” of rising emissions is merging with two other alarming trends, according to Prof David Victor, at the University of California, San Diego, in an article with colleagues also published in Natureon Wednesday.

Falling air pollution is enabling more of the sun’s warmth to reach the Earth’s surface, as aerosol pollutants reflect sunlight, while a long-term natural climate cycle in the Pacific is entering a warm phase. Victor said: “Global warming is accelerating. [These] three trends will combine over the next 20 years to make climate change faster and more furious than anticipated.”

The Global Carbon Budget, produced by 76 scientists from 57 research institutions in 15 countries, found the major drivers of the 2018 increase were more coal-burning in China and India as their economies grew, and more oil used in more transport. Industry also used more gas. Renewable energy grew rapidly, but not enough to offset the increased use of fossil fuel.

“There was hope China was rapidly moving away from coal power, but the last two years have shown it will not be so easy to say farewell quickly,” said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, at the Centre for International Climate Research in Norway.

The last two years have shown it won’t be easy for China to say farewell to coal use quickly, according to Norway’s Centre for International Climate Research. Photograph: Andy Wong/AP

In the three years since the Paris agreement was signed, financial institutions have invested more than $478bn in the world’s top 120 coal plant developers, according to a report by the NGOs Urgewald, BankTrack and partners. Chinese banks led the underwriting of coal investments, while Japanese banks led the loans, the NGOs found.

In the US, emissions rose as an unusually cold winter and hot summer boosted demand for both heating and cooling in homes. But it is expected that emissions will start to decline again in 2019, as cheap gas, wind and solar continue to displace coal – coal use has dropped 40% since 2005 and it is now at its lowest level since 1979.

The global rise in emissions, even in rich, developed nations, is very concerning, said Antonio Marcondes, Brazil’s chief negotiator at the UN summit: “Emission reductions are like credit-card debt: the longer they are put off, the more expensive and painful they become.”

Brazil reached its 2020 emissions targets early, but fears of a rise in deforestation under the new president, Jair Bolsonaro, could reverse this. But Le Quéré is optimistic that the rapid global rises seen in recent decades will not return: “This is very unlikely.”

Did my children die because I married my cousin?

By Sue MitchellBBC News, Bradford-14 December 2018

Ruba and Saqib both carry a gene for an incurable condition, which means their children have a one-in-four chance of dying in early childhood. They've already lost three. Ruba now wants IVF, to select a healthy embryo. Saqib is putting his trust in Allah. And some relatives want them to separate and remarry.

Ruba Bibi had not wanted to marry so young. She had planned to do A-levels and go to university, but before she had finished her GCSEs her parents arranged for her to marry Saqib Mehmood, her cousin, in Pakistan.

Born and brought up in Bradford, Ruba had visited Pakistan twice before the wedding - once when she was four and once when she was 12. She couldn't really remember the man she was now engaged to and had never spent time alone with him. He was 27 and worked as a driver. She was 17.
"I was really nervous because I didn't really know him," she remembers.

"I was really shy, I couldn't talk much and I hadn't ever had any interest in boys or anything like that. I was scared and asked my parents to delay things to let me finish school, but they couldn't."
After three months in Pakistan she was pregnant. She returned to Bradford two months later, shocked to be having a baby so soon. But also happy.

When their son, Hassam, was born in 2007 she excitedly called Saqib to tell him that all was well, although the baby seemed to sleep a lot and had trouble feeding.
"I just thought it was normal," Ruba says.

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A few weeks later she went for a check-up, and as the GP watched Hassam moving she noted that his hip seemed stiff.

"She said she was going to refer him, but I thought it was something minor. They did some tests and then I got a call saying I had to come to the children's ward for his results," Ruba says.

"When I went in, the doctor told me it was very bad news. She gave me a leaflet and said he has this condition and it's very rare. It was too much for me to take in and I was just crying. I came home and rang my husband in Pakistan, who tried to calm me down. He told me that everyone goes through problems and that we would get through this together."

Ruba had no idea that both she and her cousin carried the recessive gene for I-cell, a rare inherited condition that prevents a child growing and developing properly.

Seven months later Saqib received a visa to live in the UK, and was able to hold his son for the first time.

"He said he looked like normal baby. He wasn't sitting or crawling, but my husband said some children were just slow," Ruba says.

She, however, could see a big difference between her son and other babies the same age. Hassam was growing slowly, and was in and out of hospital with chest infections. And as he got older his head increased in size.

When their next child, Alishbah, was born in 2010 tests confirmed immediately that she, too, had I-cell disease. She died at the age of three, towards the end of 2013 - just over a year after her elder brother.

Before getting pregnant a third time, Ruba consulted Mufti Zubair Butt, the Muslim chaplain at Leeds Teaching Hospital, to ask what her religion would make of screening during pregnancy - and termination if I-cell was confirmed.

He told her that it would be an acceptable course of action, but advised her to think very carefully.
"If you have this condition where the child is going to die in any case, or even if it doesn't die soon, it will have debilitating illness, that's sufficient reason to terminate before the soul enters the body, based on the sayings of the prophet," he said.

But he also said that she shouldn't do this just because she had a green light to do so, as it was something she would have to live with for the rest of her life.

And he advised her to consider the views of those in her community, many of whom were likely to oppose termination. "To overcome that, on a personal level, that's a great challenge as well," he said.

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Born in Bradford

• Ruba and her first child, Hassam, were among the first to be included in Born in Bradford, a long-term study involving 14,000 families in the city, 46% of them of Pakistani heritage
• The city's infant mortality rate - double the national average - provided the impetus for the study
• Doctors have identified more than 200 rare conditions and are working on better screening and counselling for couples

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Ruba decided she would not want to terminate a pregnancy.

So when she got pregnant with her third child, Inara, in 2015, she refused the medical scans she was offered and turned down repeated requests from doctors to be screened.

"I wanted them to treat it like a normal pregnancy. I didn't want them to put the doubt in my head. I wasn't going to have an abortion, so I wanted to enjoy the pregnancy," she says.

"I used to say my husband there could be a chance this baby is ill as well, but he said, 'It's fine.' I think I had a lot of doubt - I knew the odds were the same as for the other two."
But Inara too was born with I-cell disorder.

"I was really happy that I had a baby, but when we saw her we kind of knew," says Ruba. "I was sad and upset that we went through all the pregnancy and we really wanted a healthy baby. I didn't know how much pain she would go through - but my husband was happy. He said, 'Just be grateful.'"

Inara died almost exactly a year ago, at the age of two. She fell ill with a chest infection last December and her condition deteriorated quickly. She was taken from the Bradford Royal Infirmary to York.

My husband says: 'If God is going to give me kids, then he can give me them from you... I'm not going to get married again'

"The doctors in York were trying to do 100% to keep her alive, I did have that hope but I could see she was in pain. She was sedated until she passed away. I had her in my arms for most of the time, then I lay down beside her. My husband realised she was taking her last breaths."
Ruba says she has no idea how they have all endured the pain of losing three children and of suffering six miscarriages, the last just weeks after Inara's death. "I didn't even know I was pregnant at that time and I miscarried after the funeral," she says.

She says it was Inara's death that made her accept a link between her children's misfortunes and cousin marriage.
For a long time she just did not believe it, in part because she saw other ill and disabled children at the hospice and it was clear that not all of them were conceived by married cousins. Some were from the white community.

"My husband still doesn't believe it," she says. "I believe it now because it's happened three times, so there must be something in what they're saying. It must be true."

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Cousin marriage

• In 2013 researchers published findings on cousin marriage in the Lancet: 63% of Pakistani mothers in Born in Bradford were found to be married to cousins and experienced a doubling of the risk of a baby being born with a congenital anomaly
• The risk of having a baby with birth defects, usually heart or nervous system problems, is still small but rises from 3% in the general Pakistani population to 6% among those married to blood relative
• Families in Bradford are still arranging marriages and choosing brides and grooms among their extended family back home - one in four children in the study had a parent brought over for marriage

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After Inara's death, some of Ruba and Saqib's relatives, both in the UK and in Pakistan, came to the conclusion that they were unlikely to have a healthy child - and argued that the marriage should therefore end in a "happy separation". This would allow both partners to remarry and have healthy children with someone else.

"We both said no," Ruba says.

"My husband says: 'If God is going to give me kids, then he can give me them from you. He's given me kids from you and he can give me healthy kids from you. If it's written, it's written for you. I'm not going to get married again and neither can you get married again, we are both going to try together.'"

And although Ruba was reluctant to marry in 2007, after 10 years of married life she doesn't want to part.

"Relatives wanted us to be happily separated for the kids, so that I can have healthy kids with someone else and so could he. But what if I do have healthy kids with someone, they might not make me feel like he makes me feel? I might have kids but not a happy marriage. It might not be successful marriage, and I don't want to bring kids up as a single parent. I have heard about people doing this but it's not for us."

But what options does this leave them?

One possibility is to have IVF. This would enable doctors to screen embryos, rejecting those with I-cell disease, and selecting a healthy embryo to implant in Ruba's womb.
Saqib is not enthusiastic about this, Ruba says.

I thought the first time, when Hassam was diagnosed, that I couldn't do this - but I've done it three times

"He just says that whatever Allah is going to give us is meant to be - if we're destined to have a child like this then we can have it in any circumstances," she says.

For her part, Ruba would like to try IVF - but the length of the waiting list is a drawback.

"I want it to happen quickly. If you wait for something for a long time then it's more tempting to try naturally," she says.

Her husband has been to appointments with her but it's hard for him to take time off from the bakery where he works and he doesn't speak much English.

"He sits there not knowing what they're saying," she says. "He isn't keen, but says it's up to me."
Ruba says she cannot predict what will happen, but is concerned about what any naturally conceived child may have to endure.

"I thought the first time, when Hassam was diagnosed, that I couldn't do this, but I've done it three times so I'm not sure," she says. "But it isn't fair for the child to go through so much pain."

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The three children

• Hassam Mehmood: Born 5 July 2007 - died 5 August 2012
• Alishbah Mehmood: Born 22 May 2010 - died 13 November 2013
• Inara Eshal: Born 22 April 2015 - died 6 December 2017

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The couple's experiences have led others in the family, including Ruba's brother, to reject cousin marriage.

"We never use to think about the risks - up to my children we've never thought it was wrong to marry in the family, but because I've been through it my other relatives do think twice about going in the family," Ruba says.

"Ten years ago I just accepted what my parents said, but now our cousins have been given a choice and they're saying no to that. Our younger generation have been given a choice and if they don't like it they can speak up about it."

As well as losing three children, Ruba has also suffered six miscarriages, the last just weeks after Inara's death. She hadn't realised she was pregnant at the time, but miscarried after the funeral, when Inara was buried alongside her brother and sister.

She is sustained by her religion and supported by her parents.

"God only burdens a person with how much they can take. Sometimes I think people are so lucky, they don't have to try hard and they get a healthy child, but sometimes those children bring trouble when grow up and so those tests placed on them are different," Ruba says.

"In this life I'm the unluckiest person, but in the next life I will be the luckiest because they were innocent children. And those children help you in the next life, because you will be with them."

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