What lies ahead for President Maithri?

By Gangani  Weerakoon-NOV 25 2018

President Maithripala Sirisena, has once again clearly reiterated that he is not prepared to work with sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe when he declared in Colombo on Friday, his plan to write a  book in January 2019 on his “unsuccessful political
marriage with Ranil”.
“I saw the UNP debating without the Government in Parliament. They were treating me like a plaything. The book written by my daughter, titled ‘Janadipathi Thaththa’ was one of the main topics of today’s debate,” President Sirisena said while speaking at the annual Gem and Jewellery Authority Presidential Awards ceremony.

He asked those who criticized his daughter’s book to read ‘Ranil Samaga Asarthaka Deshapalana Deegaya’ based on his experience working with United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremesinghe in the Coalition Government that was formed in January 2015.

“’Janapathi Thaththa’ was based on my life during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s tenure and how I became the Common Candidate. I would like to say to those who have quoted from my daughter’s book, that by January next year, I am going to write another book which would be titled ‘Ranil Samaga Asarthaka Deshapalana Deegaya’. I invite them to read this book as well.”

He asserted that he would even risk his life for the county and would not worry about losing his post or title on his journey to serve the people of Sri Lanka.
“I have only two things to lose. One is this post, and the other one is my life. But I am ready for that. I don’t believe in politicians of this country. I believe in the people of this county who were willing to make Sri Lanka a prosperous country. I firmly believe those who see me as a bad person today will see me as a good person in the future.”

After this event, he met Government members led by his Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa at 7 p.m. at the Presidential Secretariat. The group had met President Sirisena to describe what happened in Parliament earlier on the day and on what grounds they left the Chamber.

President Sirisena, his allies and trusted officials were contemplating on what lies ahead in future with a Vote on Account being scheduled to take place in Parliament next Thursday (29), and a pending Supreme Court decision on 7 December.

As of now, both UNP and UPFA stands neck-to-neck with 105 and 103 seats in Parliament and it is unlikely that TNA or JVP will join either party in forming a Government. This will make sure both parties continuing in a tug-o-war. In the event, Supreme Court decision comes in favour not to dissolve Parliament and President Sirisena not finding a favourable Prime Minister besides Ranil or Mahinda, the political stalemate will continue at least till next June.

That is if one party fails to trade a few MPs from the other party and show their legit majority.

Some 122 Opposition parliamentarians, on Friday, filed a Writ of Quo Warranto challenging the authority of former President Rajapaksa to hold office as Prime Minister, after a No-Confidence Motion was passed against him in the House.

Members of the UNF, JVP and TNA filed an application for a Writ of Quo Warranto which challenges former President Rajapaksa to prove on what authority he holds office as Prime Minister after the Legislature voted twice to defeat him on 14 and 16 November.

The Writ of Quo Warranto, if granted, has power to declare that the person challenged was not entitled to hold that office, lawyers said. The application [CA (Writ) 263/2018] has cited 49 respondents, including Mahinda Rajapaksa, the entire Cabinet of Ministers, State Ministers and Deputy Ministers.

According to a former Minister and UNP front-liner, the Petitioners in their application have stated that Parliament passed a vote of no-confidence against the purported Government, with all Petitioners voting in favour. “Hansard copies have been annexed as proof of this claim, along with 122 individually signed affidavits submitted to Court.”

Prof. Sarath Wijesuriya, convenor of the National Movement for a Just Society has also filed a Writ of Quo Warranto application [CA (Writ) 262/2018]. Both applications are likely to be taken up at the Court of Appeal early next week. In both applications, Petitioners have requested immediate interim relief to restrain Mahinda Rajapaksa from functioning as PM.

Country must go on

While it was evident Ministers and bureaucrats are too involved in the ongoing political crises, President Sirisena had summoned all District and Divisional Secretaries and directed them to continue to concentrate on their day-to-day duties without getting affected by what is happening in Parliament or in politics.
“The country must go on, and people should be served when they come to you,” he has told.

Meanwhile, Chief Economist of the National Economic Council (NEC) of Sri Lanka Prof. Lalith Samarakoon on Wednesday (22) reassured foreign and local investors that the country would be able to pay up its loans by acquisition of several funds from various quarters.

Addressing the Media, at the Cabinet Media Briefing held at the Information Department, Prof. Samarakoon said, in 2019 the country has to meet a US Dollars 1.5 Billion loan repayment instalment. “We already have 650M  USD left over from the Hambantota transaction while another one billion USD in Bonds through National Savings Bank, People’s Bank and Bank of Ceylon.”

Prof. Samarakoon also spoke of the downgrading of the country’s credit rating by Moody’s. He said Moody’s decision to downgrade Sri Lanka was based on two facts. The first was the heightened risk of Sri Lanka being unable to pay its debts as the financial conditions of Sri Lanka would be tighter and the second was the slower pace of fiscal consolidation.

He revealed that the Governor of the Central Bank, the Treasury Secretary and he had been summoned to the Cabinet meeting to brief  Ministers on the current economic status. This follows comments made by the former Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera who said foreign funds were not available for Sri Lanka.

“We have ample capacity to pay debt obligations. We have sovereign Bonds which are coming in next year to the tune of US Dollars 1.5 billion. In January 2019 the country has to pay 1000 million US Dollars while in April that same year a sum of another 500 million US Dollars has to be paid.”

At present, he said, the Treasury has savings of USD 650M from the Hambantota Harbour transaction. In addition, Sri Lanka Development Bonds invested through Bank of Ceylon, People’s Bank and National Savings Bank will yield a billion US Dollars.

Discussions are on to acquire another US Dollars 500 million from China Development Bank. He said that within a short period we have made arrangements to get two billion USD. Therefore, there is no need to have any fear regarding the ability of Sri Lanka to pay up loans.

International Community

President Sirisena, during a telephone conversation, has told the Commonwealth Secretary General, Baroness Patricia Scotland that he has acted in accordance with the Constitution of Sri Lanka and would continue to stand for democratic practices.

President’s media division said that he explained that he has very clearly asked the Speaker of Parliament to follow the Parliamentary Standing Orders and conventions and take any vote on a No-Confidence Motion using the electronic voting system or by name.

Baroness Patricia has said that the Commonwealth values Sri Lanka’s adherence to democracy as one of the oldest democracies in Asia and as a long-standing member of the Commonwealth. She assured that the Commonwealth would continue to work in close cooperation with Sri Lanka. She expressed confidence that Sri Lanka would solve the current political crisis amicably.

Meanwhile, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) met the envoys and representatives of 15 countries at the Opposition Leader’s office in Colombo on Tuesday (20).

Explaining its stance to the international community, with regard to the present unstable political situation, the TNA emphasized on the need to find an early solution to the stalemate in Parliament, in the best interests of the country.

Leader of the Opposition and the TNA, R. Sampanthan accompanied by fourteen TNA Parliamentarians attended this meeting which lasted one and a half hours in which Sampanthan explained the current political situation in Parliament since 26 October.

Speaking to the Media, Sampanthan said that the envoys who met the TNA were told that despite proving that there was no majority for the Government in Parliament twice, on 14 October and 16 October, by 122 MPs, the purportedly-appointed Prime Minister continued to remain in power.

Sampanthan also explained on the horse-trading which had taken place to buy over the MPs by offering money and Cabinet portfolios.

“As we have been focusing on bringing out a new Constitution and on solving several important issues, such as the release of the lands in the North and the East, before 31 December, as it was mentioned by the President, the issue of Tamil Prevention of Terrorism Act prisoners, as well as focusing on fulfilling the United Nations Human Rights Council resolutions before March next year, the current political situation has put the minorities and the country at large in jeopardy,” Sampanthan said.

He also warned that if this situation continues, the law and order situation would collapse paving the way for anti-social elements to take the upperhand.
Sampanthan also mentioned specifically that minorities would be affected very much in case of a breakdown in the law and order situation in the country.

The diplomats from 15 countries, who had participated in the meeting, asked several questions on various issues with regard to the current situation in Parliament.

TNA MP and Spokesman, President’s Counsel M.A. Sumanthiran, said that the diplomats had stated that none of their countries has recognized the new Prime Minister or welcomed him by sending greetings.

“The diplomats responded by saying that they would do their part to put the situation in order in the country,” Sumanthiran added.

The envoys who participated in the meeting with Sampanthan yesterday were from India, Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, France, Norway, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Canada and Bangladesh.

Representatives from the United Nations office and the European Union in Colombo also participated in the meeting.

Concerns over IGP

It is no secret that IGP Pujith Jayasundara played a major role in ruining relationship between President Sirisena and Wickremesinghe and preventing any chance of mending the soured affair.

According to reliable sources, the highest echelons of the country are still closely monitoring the activities of IGP Jayasundara. “Recently, two letters - one sent by the IGP and another received by him - were released to the media and to the public.

Both these letters were released in a manner that it would put President Sirisena in an inconvenient situation. Therefore, we are still concerned about the real agenda of the IGP and would initiate an inquiry should the need arise,” sources claimed.

They were referring to two letters exchanged between the IGP and the Secretary to the Ministry of Defence and Senior DIG in charge of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) over the controversial transfer of Special Investigation Unit’s OIC inspector Nishantha de Silva.

SDIG Ravi Seneviratne, in his letter stated that IP Silva had no links with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) as had been alleged by former Navy Commander and incumbent Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Ravindra Wijegunarathne.

He added that Silva was playing a key role in the investigation of high profile criminal cases, including the murder of Editor Lasantha Wickremetunga, the abduction and assault of Deputy Editor Keith Noyahr, and the assaults on Editor Upali Tennakoon and Journalist Namal Perera.

He was also the chief investigator in the abduction and disappearance of 11 youths by Navy personnel involved in an alleged abduction racket. He had also conducted investigations into the alleged enforced disappearance of Cartoonist Prageeth Ekneligoda and the Avant Garde floating armoury case.

Jayasundara on 18 November ordered the transfer of Silva to Negombo with immediate effect. The transfer order signed by Jayasundara bears, No.   D/HRM/ADM/1869/2018. Service requirements were mentioned in the order.
Speculation was that the transfer of Silva had been based on his alleged connection with the LTTE.

Seneviratne, in his letter confirmed that there was no information or evidence that Silva is connected to the LTTE.

He further pointed out that there was no information or evidence reported of any involvement in crime or other illegal acts by this officer.

He noted further: “This officer has diligently performed his duties in connection with all investigations assigned by me and currently the cases are ongoing in several Courts. I especially state that the commitment, interest and knowledge of the officer has in several instances helped this Department and the entire Police Department to gain public acceptance.”

Squashing allegations made by CDS Wijegunaratna on 13 November, at the National Security Council and again on 16 November over telephone to IGP Jayasundara that officer de Silva is connected with the LTTE, SDIG Seneviratne has insisted that it is completely fraudulent and baseless.

“Also I inform that as this complaint has not been presented against the particular officer, by any inquiry section or intelligence unit, my standpoint therefore stands confirmed.
 Wijegunarathne is a suspect who has to be arrested as per Court Orders by Silva in connection with allegedly aiding and abetting a suspect, former Navy Lieutenant Commander Hettiarachchi Mudiyanselage Prasad Chandana Hettiarachchi, in the case number 9527/18, to evade arrest, the latter is presently remanded over the alleged abduction and disappearance of 11 youths during 2008 and 2009 from Kotahena,” Seneviratne
stated.

Illusions and prospects of the Left

By Jayatilleke de Silva-November 23, 2018, 9:39 pm 

Since independence, our country has been ruled by Right and Center-Right parties. The latter was, however, mistaken as Center - Left on account of its association with some Left parties. In all such instances the major partner in the alliance used the Left to strengthen their power, at the expense of the Left. Their easy subordination and willingness to refrain from asserting independence led even the conservative Right to use the Left to strengthen their power.

Though it never held real political power as such, the Left has made a signal contribution to social development. Its contribution to the independence struggle is acknowledged even by its enemies. So is its contribution to the development of the nascent trade union movement into a militant and formidable force in the first half of the last century. Many welfare legislations such as the 8-hour working day, workmen’s compensation, ceiling on housing ownership, the Paddy Lands Act etc. were due to their agitation. Some such legislation was later revised negatively by subsequent governments. However, it is a different matter.

The Achilles heel of the Left has been, and still is, its disunity. The first split occurred on account of external factors. The LSSP, the first socialist party in Sri Lanka was split over the attitude to the Soviet Union during the Second World War. Thus, divided into two camps, the Left movement lost some of its vitality. Even then it performed fairly well at the 1947 general elections and could have formed a Government had it got united.

Objective and subjective factors, including doctrinaire differences on local issues, especially on the evaluation of the role of national bourgeoisie, and the theory and practice of united fronts, were responsible for subsequent splits and disintegration of the Left. This gave rise to the birth of the New Left, which now is already over 40 years.

Preference to the parliamentary struggle over the mass struggle, and the subjugation of the latter to the former, gave way to the contamination of the Left with communalism. In their haste, some in the New Left also embraced communal policies and fostered the division of progressive forces. The scourge of communalism finally completed the rout.

The Left has been weakened by its own illusions. For example, sections of the traditional Left parties and a far greater percentage of their sympathizers, believe that the SLFP or for that matter its duplicate and successor - the SLPP, are Left parties. It is a misnomer and an illusion. The credo of both of them is neo-liberalism, whatever rhetoric they use to deceive the masses. Their anti-imperialism is a mask and a camouflage as experience should convince the unbiased.

Some in the Left still brandish slogans which are out of date though they may have been positive in their own time. Such is the slogan of anti-UNP unity. How could the Left unite with bourgeois or petty bourgeois parties that have the same economic policies as the UNP, to fight it? The ease with which parliamentarians cross-over between them is a clear example of their similarity.

At this juncture, when established bourgeois parties have dismally failed to find solutions to the problems facing the country, and are only interested in retaining and regaining political power for self-aggrandizement and robbing the State, the Left if united would have been a potent alternative that people could trust.

However, old socialists consider such a known self-aggrandizing leader a Messiah, who has a magic power to solve all problems. Like their bourgeois counterparts they interpret the present political developments with an eye to getting a foothold on a coalition that is likely to achieve victory at the next elections.

Most political parties and groups including those on the Left have made some mistakes in the seven-decade post – independence history. Some have self-critically acknowledged their mistakes and rectified them. Some have shown no inclination to repeat them, though they seem to distance themselves from such mistakes. Whatever it is, it is tragic that the Left cannot get together on a practical agenda to ameliorate the worsening plight of the people, especially the poor, leaving the settlement of longstanding and theoretical disagreements to the future. The resolution of such disagreements is a process that could take years.

One could discuss whether Stalin or Trotsky was right, whether Communism is a dictatorship or democracy, whether Gorbachev was a liberator or a traitor till cows come home. But the urgent problem is to agree on a joint struggle to safeguard the rights and needs of the masses.

Will the Left rise up to the occasion or will it too get wiped out before public anger?

(jayatilleked@outlook.com)

Hold election now - Veddah chieftain

Asela KURULUWANSA-Saturday, November 24, 2018

Veddah Chief Uruwarige Wannila Aththo said the country needs to go for an election now to untangle the current political impasse.

Wannila Aththo stated this when a group of academics met him to discuss the prevailing situation in the country yesterday.

“At this juncture, where the entire country is in a crisis, it would be better to give the people an opportunity take a decision for the country than giving it to the 225 public representatives in Parliament,” he said.

He said public representatives who had been elected to Parliament by the public are crossing sides continuously.Therefore, taking decisions as per their desire would further aggravate the crisis, he said.

Wannila Aththo said the conduct of MPs had damaged the image of the country before the international community.

Silver Lining Amid The Chaos: Hats Off To The Gentleman Politicians – Welgama & The JVP

By Lalith Goonatilake –NOVEMBER 25, 2018

Prof. Lalith Goonatilake

The events in the last three weeks has left the country in shock, and Sri Lanka becoming the laughing stock around the world, and setting the scene for a major economic  collapse. We have observed the recent parliament sittings, the many “press conferences” from all sides, some full of lies and fake facts and one sided justifications. What examples would our children draw from seeing all this? Can they differentiate right and wrong, truth and lies, and correct democratic procedures? In addition to the politicians, various priests and unknown pseudo professional organisations are giving one sided opinions, making further confusion. 

The timing of all this was bad for the country. The first time ever LONELY PLANET the renowned travel magazine ranked Sri Lanka as the No:1 country to visit in 2019. We spent millions re-branding Sri Lanka as a travel destination and the new logo “So –Sri Lanka” created by J. Walter Thompson at a cost of USD 2 Million was launched in London on 5 November 2018. Last year tourist arrivals YOY have seen an increase of around 12%, and a major tourism boost was evident. Tourists seeing our law maker performance in parliament (knives, chilli powder, assaulting Policemen, breaking and throwing chairs and missiles), would draw conclusions on the law and order situation in the country, and would have serious safety concerns about visiting Sri Lanka. This safety concerns cannot be wiped out by spending another US$ 2 Million on a publicity contract.

The economic benefits of the EU GSP plus concessions were just kicking in. The Apparel sector is witnessing a 12% YOY growth. Once banned fisheries exports were returning to pre-ban levels. Due to short-sighted and selfish actions of our politicians, the country risks losing all these potential economic gains. 

The negative impacts of the recent events are far reaching. The US$ which was Rs. 173 a month ago has jumped to Rs. 181- the highest depreciation we have seen in a month. Rating agencies have downgraded the country standing and the rating of three major Banks. IMF and some donors have suspended funding. Some countries have requested us to follow the democratic practices (hinting that we are not following such practices). The possibility of losing the EU- GSP plus and  Sri Lanka entering the EU embargoed countries list are on the horizon. At the domestic level, there is social disorder and possibility of reviving the once settled religious and ethnic conflicts.

The core issue is the selfish and thugs like behaviour of some of our elected MPs. We saw the pandemonium in parliament. Knives, chilli powder, chairs and books thrown around, injuries caused to MPs and Police officers attacked. 

Among this chaos, I see two silver linings that demonstrate all is not lost and there are gentlemen politicians others can emulate. First is HONORABLE  Kumara Welgama MP. He  gave an excellent interview on 21 November 2018 on Daily Mirror titled “Sirisena has a hidden agenda”. During the chaotic parliamentary events, Hon Welgama made a number of comments to the media. First that if the SLPP/SLFP faction has no parliament majority, Mahinda Rajapaksea should resign and contest the parliamentary election scheduled in 2020. Second, that looking at the shameful performance in parliament, foreign countries should consider travel bans on those misbehaving MPs (I sincerely hope this could happen).

While the SLPP plans to take power was brewing few months ago, Hon. Welgama was the lone voice against this action. From the outset he said “if we do not have 113, let us wait for another 18 months and face the new election”. He also said, “if Mahinda Rajapaksa wants to be in power now, I would vote in favour, but will not take any Ministerial posts and would sit in the opposition”, demonstrating his loyalty to the former President. He was criticised by a number of SLPP MPs in press conferences. Mr. Welgama in his Matugama speech on 17 October 2018, gives a solid answer to the critics and exposes their dubious actions.

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ATTORNEY GENERAL WITHDRAWS APPEAL AGAINST ACQUITTAL OF GNANASARA THERA OVER CAUSING DAMAGE TO CHRISTIAN CHURCH IN MALABE

24/11/2018

In a shocking development, the Attorney General today withdrew an appeal filed against the acquittal of Bodu Bala Sena General Secretary Galagodaaththe Gnanasara Thera over causing damage to Christian church in Malabe, in 2007.

When the case was taken up earlier this week, the Deputy Solicitor General informed the Court of Appeal that the Attorney General has decided to withdraw the appeal against Ganasara Thera.

The move seems to be a direct result of the discussion that took place between President Maithripala Sirisena and the Bodu Bala Sena monks earlier this week.

The discussion took place after a group of Bodu Bala Sena monks protested in front of the Presidential Secretariat demanding the release of Gnaansara Thera who is currently serving a 06 years RI over contempt of court.

At the discussion, Sirisena has also promised to discuss with the Attorney General the possibility to grant a presidential pardon to Gnanasara Thera.

Asian Mirror

The post-war years and the start of the airlines

 Monday, 26 November 2018 

On 11 November 1918, at exactly 1100 hours European time, the Armistice that ended the “war to end all wars” came into effect. The guns fell silent after four years leaving Europe devastated. Four great empires had fallen; almost 20 million had died as a direct result of the conflict; and another 50 to 100 million perished in the Spanish flu pandemic that followed.

The human and capital cost of the war was almost incalculable. Not many positives could be found, but a rare one was in the field of aviation. When the conflict began, the aircraft of the time were frail, hand-built, individual pieces crafted by enthusiasts. By the war’s end large factories were turning out hundreds of aircraft a month, which were much faster and more capable than the early machines.

Crucially, this production capability was matched by a network of skilled maintenance personnel, who could keep the aircraft in flying condition under demanding circumstances. With accomplished aviators, who were by now able to fly in most weather conditions while navigating with a great degree of accuracy, the seeds were set for the exponential growth of a completely new field – commercial aviation.

The world of airline travel began in earnest after the Great War was over. A slew of airlines was founded, some of which still exist today. While the German Zeppelin airships have the distinction of being the first to carry passengers on a scheduled service pre-war, this is not a technology that exists today.

Using Benoit flying boats two entrepreneurs took advantage of a quirk of geography to connect the cities of Tampa and St Petersburg in Florida, which were separated by Tampa Bay. A road journey between the cities took 20 hours, the sea journey at least two hours, but the flying boats made the crossing in about 20 minutes! A perfect demonstration of how efficient air travel could be.

The St. Petersburg to Tampa flights only lasted a year or so, but not far away, in Miami Florida, a flying boat service was founded in 1919 by a WW1 veteran named Arthur “Pappy” Chalk. Flying between Florida and Bermuda, this airline, Chalk’s Flying Service, continued until 2001, when the aftermath of 9/11 forced it into bankruptcy. The Grumman Mallard flying boats that Chalk’s airline used gained worldwide exposure when one was featured in the official video of a George Michael song, “Careless Whisper” which was very popular in the 1980s.

As soon as the Great War was over, a large number of airlines were founded. Most were by the victorious Allied powers, with Britain and France in the forefront, due to their advanced aircraft manufacturing capabilities. These laid the foundations of companies that exist to this day.

Some companies that had made aircraft for the war founded Daimler Airway, Handley Page Transport and Instone Air Line. The British government merged them to form Imperial Airways, the predecessor to BOAC (British Overseas Airways Corporation) and later British Airways. In a similar exercise, The French forced the four major private airlines to form Air France.

The title of “world’s oldest airline” belongs to KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, founded in October 1919 and soon to celebrate its centenary. Holland was neutral in the Great War, but a Dutch designer Anthony Fokker was based in Germany during the war and designed some of the best aircraft of the period. The business moved to Holland in 1919 and produced excellent civilian aircraft until quite recently. However, being based in Holland, which was occupied by Germany in the Second World War, KLM had an interruption in operations from 1940-45, so does not fully qualify as the world’s “oldest continuously operating airline”.

That title goes to Avianca of Colombia (Aerovías del Continente Americano), which began as the Colombia-German Air Transport Society in December 1919 and exists to this day. Qantas Airways of Australia began in November 1920 and is also one of the pioneers that retains its original name.

Deutsche Luft Reederei, the German Air Shipping Company formed in 1919, was merged into Deutsche Luft Hansa in 1926 and re-emerged from World War 2 as the Lufthansa we know today.

Iberia of Spain and LOT Polish Airlines were both started in the late 1920s and survive to this day.

The oldest surviving US airline is Delta Air Lines, initially formed as a crop-dusting company in 1924. The legendary Pan American Airways, the first truly international airline, was founded in 1927 by Juan Trippe using flying boats, and was a trailblazer until forced into bankruptcy in 1991. Several other well-known US airlines such as Eastern, Western, Northwest, Braniff, etc were all founded in the 1920s and are now bankrupt or have merged with one of the remaining handful of giant carriers.

Southern America has several pioneering airline companies other than Avianca, with Varig of Brazil being founded in 1927 and going out of business in 2006.

In the Pacific, Japan Air Transport started flying in 1928, became Imperial Japanese Airways and is today’s Japan Airlines (JAL). Hawaiian Airlines was founded in 1929 and is still in operation.

Industrialist Henry Ford founded the world’s first cargo airline in 1925. The Ford Company also built one of the world’s first all metal aircraft the Ford Trimotor, nicknamed the “Tin Goose”, one of which is seen below in Eastern Air Transport livery.

Pix by Alex Feldstein

Hope against history for Gaza ceasefire

Palestinians celebrate Avigdor Lieberman’s resignation outside the home of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Ashraf AmraAPA images

Omar Karmi-22 November 2018

Last week’s violence in and around Gaza came at a seemingly odd moment.

Negotiations for a longer term indirect ceasefire agreement between Palestinian factions in Gaza led by Hamas and Israel, mediated by Egypt, the UN and (to some degree) Qatar, seemed to be bearing fruit.

Qatari cash was delivered to Gaza to pay government employees. A leaked draft agreement indicated that Israel would eventually ease the blockade of Gaza by as much as 70 percent to allow crucial infrastructure projects to start and ease movement. And Egyptian officials began monitoring demonstrations held weekly as part of the Great March of Return protests.

And then Israel decided to send a special operations team into Gaza, blowing all this promise into smithereens. A cessation of hostilities has been agreed – sulkingly, apparently, in Israel, where many politicians clearly believe that more bloodshed is the popular option – but it remains to be seen what it will mean for chances to lift or ease the blockade on Gaza, without which there will be no enduring ceasefire.

The events of the last week or so suggest a number of things. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority leader, is increasingly becoming irrelevant when it comes to all matters Gaza, though the PA will eventually need to agree to reconcile with Hamas for a long-term truce to be agreed. Washington’s defense of Israeli aggression is feverish and US diplomacy has been relegated to cheerleading. No one is holding their breath for the Ultimate Deal™.

Regional mediation, on the other hand, can still play an important role. It remains limited by the political temperature in Israel, where the military option always seems to be the easy one, and the complicated triangulations between Hamas and the PA, Egypt and Qatar.

A devastating track record

It is too early to predict whether the current ceasefire will hold, will solidify into a longer term truce or descend into another – fourth – all-out Israeli military offensive on occupied Gaza.

But history suggests this is the beginning of preparations for a fourth Israeli assault on Gaza.

Israel has a track record of blowing up ceasefires. In 2008, a six-month ceasefire had been agreed, after Egyptian mediation, in June. It began to unravel after an Israeli raid into Gaza on 4 November – incidentally (or not) on the same day Americans went to vote in US presidential elections – that resulted in the killing of six Hamas fighters.

By the end of December – after a period in which foreign journalists were barred from Gaza in an apparent dry run for the main event – Israel launched the first of three all-out military offensives on Gaza, the so-called Operation Cast Lead, that lasted over three weeks and left more than 1,400 Palestinians, among them some 1,200 civilians, dead in Gaza. Three Israeli civilians were killed.

In 2012, and ahead of Israel’s second Gaza assault, Israeli mediators, with the consent of Israeli politicians, and Hamas officials were reportedly in talks over a long-term truce when Israel assassinated Ahmad Jabari, the Hamas leader who had just received a draft of that agreement for his approval, in a missile strike.

The 2012 “Pillar of Defense” attack lasted one week and left more than 100 Palestinian civilians dead. Four Israeli civilians were killed.

The easy option

The 2012 assault led to an Egyptian-mediated agreement that a ceasefire would also usher in a gradual opening of the blockade of Gaza that has strangled the narrow coastal strip of land economically and cut Palestinians there off from the rest of the world.

But while Hamas and other Palestinian factions mostly held their side of the bargain – even Benjamin Netanyahu, then as now prime minister, acknowledged that 2013 had seen the lowest number of rockets from Gaza in a decade – the Israelis did not. Crossings remained closed, the siege on Gaza tight, electricity supply intermittent and basic goods were at a premium.

Eventually, and after three Israeli students were killed in the West Bank, Israel launched its deadliest attack on Gaza in July 2014, a seven-week assault that left more than 2,200 Palestinians dead, among them over 1,400 civilians.

Four years have passed since then. Although the siege has remained in place, some positive steps were taken over the past few months that may at first glance seem significant. Israel has eased the electricity blockade, allowed $15 million in Qatari cash to enter to pay public servants and was in advanced talks to implement a longer term truce that would see a significant easing of the blockade on Gaza and could even include a sea passage from Gaza to Cyprus.

But every ceasefire and mediation attempt since Hamas ousted Palestinian Authority security forces from Gaza in 2007 has seemed significant, and every time Israel chose the military option, an easy way out for Israeli politicians to appease an evermore belligerent public opinion.

Bye, bye Lieberman

Early elections – otherwise scheduled for November 2019 – are now likely in Israel after Avigdor Lieberman, the defense minister, resigned in protest, calling Netanyahu “weak” in dealing with Gaza, pulling his Yisrael Beiteinu party out of the coalition government.

The government has not quite toppled, but is hanging on with the slimmest of majorities. Logic dictates that war be undesirable for a sitting government during an election campaign, but in Israel, war on Gaza has not exactly proven unpopular. Moreover, Netanyahu is under a cloud of corruption allegations, and indictments are likely in the first quarter of 2019: a war of diversion is not out of the question.

Certainly, the option is open to Netanyahu.

That leaves regional mediation, as ever, at the mercy of Israeli grandstanding but without any useful input from Washington, where diplomats have been reduced to cheerleaders for Israel.

Much will depend on the threat from Netanyahu’s right. Lieberman’s gamble seems clear: by presenting a bullish and belligerent front he hopes to steal a march on Netanyahu and his other ultra-right rival, Naftali Bennett, the education minister who threatened to resign last week if he did not get Lieberman’s defense portfolio, but managed neither.

Lieberman, true to form, has avoided getting involved in anything too messy as defense minister. His tenure, by Israeli standards, has been unremarkable, certainly unremarkable for a man whose vision of a two-state solution involves transferring Palestinian citizens of Israel to a new Palestinian state by swapping Palestinian-majority areas inside Israel for settlement blocs in the occupied West Bank.

He has called for Palestinian members of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, to be prosecuted for treason, and wanted to “chop off” the heads of “anyone who’s against us.” And he repeatedly questions the loyalty of Palestinians living inside Israel.

Should calm prevail around Gaza, Lieberman’s gamble may backfire. But with the Israeli public seemingly divided between hard right and ultra right, he will be back, one way or another.

PA sidelined

The latest violence in Gaza also showed that Mahmoud Abbas is having little influence on events. Egyptian, UN and Qatari-sponsored mediation over a longer term truce had been conducted without the PA, angering Abbas, who was reported as saying that Hamas had no authority to reach any agreement with any party on behalf of the Palestinians.

Abbas did accede – after apparently strong Egyptian and Israeli pressure, including a threat by Israel to unilaterally subtract monies the PA is withholding from Gaza and deliver them directly – to ease PA-imposed sanctions on Gaza. These sanctions, in place since April 2017, have reduced PA payments to Gaza by some 10 percent, from $105 million to $95 million a month, affecting the civil service, healthcare, electricity and the fuel supply.

Of course, primary responsibility for Gaza lies with Israel, as the occupying power, and much of this trouble would end if there was any real intention on behalf of Israel or the US and other international players to end a blockade on Gaza that the UN says threatens imminent humanitarian disaster.

But Abbas has done himself no favors with his hard line towards the impoverished Gaza Strip. Protests have erupted in the West Bank over the position and rather than dislodge Hamas from power, as he apparently hoped, it has seen Hamas lose further faith in unity talks with the PA, and international mediators circumvent Ramallah.

In a meeting earlier in November, Abbas again lashed out at Hamas. Wafa, the PA’s official news agency, alleged Hamas was playing into the hands of Washington and accepting Qatari blood money to aid the “Zionist-American plan to separate the Strip from the West Bank.”

Abbas wants Gaza to come back under PA control and Hamas to disarm. Hamas will only do so to a restructured Palestine Liberation Organization that reflects its popularity and in which it has a real say. Until such a time, a long-term ceasefire with Israel and an end to the blockade on Gaza will prove tricky to reach.

Abbas cut short a trip to Kuwait when the latest round of violence flared and condemned Israel’s attacks. But Palestinians in Gaza need more than condemnation and the PA has proven obstructive rather than helpful in Gaza’s desperate need to escape its isolation.

That is why it was sidelined in the latest long-term ceasefire talks and much rests on the ability of Egypt and the UN to convince the PA to play along, while keeping Hamas and Israel at arm’s length, and on Qatar’s willingness to continue footing the bill.

The ultimate irrelevance

Abbas is concerned that by circumventing the PA, events are conspiring against Palestinian unity and could see a permanent severing of Gaza from the West Bank under the Ultimate Deal™ that is reportedly being concocted in Washington.

Abbas seems to believe that that plan – which no one has seen and it remains unclear whether one even exists – will propose statehood for Gaza and limited self-rule for areas of the West Bank now under PA control. It is a possibility he has already dismissed and one that no Palestinian, Arab or even Israeli leader supports or believes practical, for their various reasons.

The Ultimate Deal™ remains a mysterious unknown hovering somewhere offstage like an unloved actor that no one wants to come on and with only a bit part but who is needed to push forward the narrative. It is becoming the Ultimate Irrelevance©.

One potential “ace in the hole” for that plan, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, is suspected by the CIA of having ordered the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, something that will do his diplomatic credentials – already tarnished by questionable actions on Lebanon and Qatar as well as a bloody, brutal and long war on Yemen – little good.

Bin Salman’s cozying up to Israel had already been curtailed by his father, King Salman, who has repeatedly reiterated Riyadh’s traditional stance on Palestinian rights to a state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Washington has tried to undercut some of the thorniest issues before presenting a plan. It sanctioned the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem, thus acceding to Israel’s claim to the city as its “eternal, undivided” capital.

It has ended funding to UNRWA, the UN body that looks after Palestinian refugees, in an apparent attempt to define them out of existence.

But rather than set the wheels in motion to what the White House must have thought would be the inevitable Palestinian surrender, it has seen Abbas dig his heels in and freeze contacts with the US. Hamas, on a US list of terror organizations, is not that way inclined anyway, whatever Abbas fears.

And with US diplomats, at the UN and in Washington, all simply cheering whatever Israel does, they have made themselves irrelevant. If all your diplomats are doing is supporting one side, there is no meaningful sense in which they can be said to be mediating. “Give me an ‘I,’” anyone?

Peace and justice for Palestinians and Israelis will not come with American help, at least not under this administration.

A longer-term ceasefire, on the other hand, might just be attainable, in spite of this administration. It’s certainly in everyone’s interests, including Abbas and the PA’s.

But that has always been true.

Omar Karmi is a former Jerusalem and Washington, DC, correspondent for The National newspaper and associate editor of The Electronic Intifada.

Unease and apprehension lie over Gaza following Israeli truce

Despite Israel pulling back from the brink of all-out war, Gazans fear further escalation could be on the horizon

Palestinian children play with a football in a courtyard between new Qatari-built residential units in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip (AFP)

 

Saturday 24 November 2018 

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - During the day, the streets of Gaza are crowded, with the shouting of vendors and honking of cars all indicating that the devastated city is determined to move on after weeks of escalation and tension which almost led to a full blown war.

Two days of intense fighting last week saw 400 rockets and mortars fired into Israel while Israeli planes bombed 100 sites. 15 Palestinians and an Israeli soldier were killed in the violence.

Abu Adli al-Muzanar, owner of a well-known sweet shop in Gaza city, sold a number of sweets after the escalation ended last week. Residents bought sweets in celebration of the ending of the Israeli escalation.

“I hope I don’t sell more sweets in the coming days. Every period of perseverance is followed by immense pain,” says Muzanar.

He told Middle East Eye he didn't feel secure about the current lull.

"The sound of Israeli surveillance drones doesn’t leave the sky and forebodes ill tidings.”

Muzanar also expresses his fear of a sudden attack similar to that of December 2008, when Israel had launched a massive attack after nominally making a truce with the factions.

“I’m afraid to wake up to a gruesome catastrophe like that of 2008, especially in light of the threats made by Israeli officials and amidst the rage persisting among Israelis who are disappointed at their loss in the last round of escalation.”

A ceasefire with Hamas ended the worst violence between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza since the 2014 war that left more than 2,200 people dead - the overwhelming majority of them Palestinians.

'The resistance has powerful cards and messages, which will sway Israel from launching a new attack'

- Hussein Mansour, PFLP leader in Gaza

Last week's deal led Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman to resign in disagreement as he branded the deal as “surrendering to terrorism”, almost forcing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into an early election.

Despite the moves to prevent further escalation, Palestinians have been left with a sense of unease.

Abu Hadi, the owner of a supermarket on al-Nasir street in Gaza City, said he felt the current calm was deceiving.

“A confrontation could break out at any time. Didn’t you hear that the resistance has spoken of capturing a group of spies and has published pictures of Israelis who are wanted?" he said, referring to pictures of Israeli "fugitives" put out by Hamas.

"Israel won’t abandon its spies and men and we fear it will launch an attack to protect them."

The last round of escalation started the evening of 11 November when a number of Hamas fighters discovered an Israeli special forces unit that had infiltrated three kilometres into east Khan Younis.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and recently resigned Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman have disagreed sharply on how to proceed with Gaza (AFP)

The two sides opened fire, leading to the killing of an officer of the special forces unit. Israeli warplanes then intervened and killed seven Palestinians.

Following this incident, Palestinian factions fired scores of rockets into Israeli cities bordering Gaza. Hamas' al-Qassam Bridgades released a video showing the targeting of a bus carrying Israeli soldiers near the Gaza separation fence using a Kornet missile.

Israel then launched dozens of air strikes on Gaza, killing at least seven Palestinians. One more Palestinian - a West Bank resident who was in southern Israel - was killed by a rocket attack from the Gaza Strip.

After the escalation ended, a number of Israeli officials issued statements that reinforced the apprehension among the Palestinians. Netanyahu stated, following a meeting with Likud: “The security status is complicated. We are in a wide-scale battle that hasn’t ended yet. I won’t declare how or when we will act. There are intentions to continue. I don’t wish to disclose what I plan to do in the near future.”

Parliamentarian Yoav Galant also stated: "We must settle the tab with Yahya al-Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza. It’s only a matter of time. This man will not be a hero.”

Conversely, Palestinian factions have warned that they are prepared for any assault from Israel.

"The Palestinian factions have delivered enough messages," said Hussein Mansour, a leader in the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). "The joint military room, which was established a few months back closely follows up things on the ground and evaluates steps to be taken.

“The joint military room has information, tools and powers which make it fully ready to confront any sudden attack against the Gaza Strip. The resistance has powerful cards and messages which will sway Israel from launching a new attack.”

Adnan Abu Amer, a researcher in Israeli affairs, told MEE: "The popular pressure in Israel on Netanyahu's government could push him towards a limited military operation against Gaza.”

"The pictures of the bus burned by a Kornet missile, the Asqalan [also known as Ashkelon] building destroyed by a Gaza rocket, and settler demonstrations in Sderot will be highlighted in the reels in the campaigns of Israeli opposition parties in the upcoming elections."

"It is difficult for Israel to sign a ceasefire agreement with Gaza with the last mental picture being the burned bus and destroyed building."

Not a priority

Haidar al-Musaddar, a researcher, said the situation in Gaza was not a military priority for Israel because the Israeli government has other strategic files on its agenda.

Speaking to MEE, Musaddar said he believed Israel's unwillingness to attack Gaza was linked to a desire to improve relations with a number of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia.

Forging new alliances such as these would be a strategic achievement for Israel economically, politically and in respect of altering these governments' positions in Israel's favor.


He said that Israel's containment policy regarding Gaza was focused on two options: Violent containment through a precise military operation to destroy command and control structures in Gaza followed by a decade of quiet - or an economic route funded by Egypt, Qatar, and the UN.

He said Israel was still evaluating both options - but popular demands and a new election might sway it towards the military option.

ISIS May Be Gone, But Iraq’s Yazidis Are Still Suffering

The defeat of the Islamic State has created a power vacuum in the northern Iraqi town of Sinjar, leaving the Yazidi minority at the mercy of competing militias.

BY SAM MEDNICK-NOVEMBER 23, 2018, 9:37 AM

 

SINJAR, Iraq—Iraq’s strategically located town of Sinjar, now empty of civilians and devoid of life, lies buried beneath rubble. Although it was liberated from the Islamic State three years ago, the city remains in ruins—and has become rife with proxy militias vying for regional control.
Situated about 20 miles from the Syrian border, the town lies south of the Sinjar Mountains, a range that has always held geographic importance. Former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein reportedly used the mountains, which have a high point of 4,800 feet, to launch missiles into Israel during the Gulf War in the 1990s.

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In recent years, Sinjar, home to the Yazidis, an ethno-religious minority, was the site of an Islamic State-led genocidal campaign. On Aug. 3, 2014, the terrorist group mercilessly attacked the town, slaughtering thousands of civilians and abducting women and girls who were then taken to Syria and sold or given as sex slaves to Islamic State fighters. Those who could make it sought refuge atop Sinjar’s rugged mountains. While under the jihadi group’s control, Sinjar provided a land corridor and supply route linking Islamic State strongholds in Syria and Iraq.

Since Sinjar’s liberation in late 2015, a slew of militias have poured in, creating a leadership vacuum that threatens the region’s stability.

Since Sinjar’s liberation in late 2015, a slew of militias have poured in, creating a leadership vacuum that threatens the region’s stability.

 “Despite having been freed from ISIS presence … the region de facto remains an occupied district where competing Iraqi and foreign agendas play out by coopting Yazidis into rival armed groups,” Maria Fantappie, the senior advisor on Iraq at the International Crisis Group, told Foreign Policy. The continued presence of groups in the area is preventing reconstruction, demining, and the safe return of Yazidis to their homes, she added.

Four factions currently occupy Sinjar and its surrounding areas, none of which has full control: Iraqi government forces, the predominantly Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units; the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), an Iraqi government-sanctioned paramilitary force backed by Iran; and the Ezidxan Protection Force, a local Yazidi militia of 3,000 troops. Flags change at each checkpoint in and around the town as each party attempts to assert dominance.



Distrust is endemic, especially toward the Iranian-backed militia. “There is no security in Sinjar; it’s not safe because of the (PMU),” said Edo Hayder Murad, deputy commander of the Yazidi Ezidxan forces in Sinjar town. “They want to use this area to control the top of the mountain, they want to control Israel, they want to control everything,” he said, referring to Saddam’s use of the mountain to fire missiles at Israel during the Gulf War.

He’s calling on the international community to create an armed force based in Sinjar to protect the Yazidis. But talks with the Americans and Europeans have so far yielded few results. Cmdr. Murad even requested a one-on-one meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump but says he’s yet to receive a response. He worries if the predominantly Shiite PMU takes over, his people will be even worse off than under the Islamic State.

According to a report by the International Crisis Group published in February, there’s reason to worry. Since October 2017, the PMU has had the political and military upper hand in Sinjar and is providing a corridor for Iran to gain access to Syria

Since October 2017, the PMU has had the political and military upper hand in Sinjar and is providing a corridor for Iran to gain access to Syria

, through territory the militia wrested from the Islamic State. In the past year, the PMU has also seized additional areas along the Syrian border. External forces will continue to fight for strategic control of Sinjar as long as the Iraqi government remains weak.

The PMU dismisses the notion that it’s trying to gain regional power. “If we wanted to use Sinjar Mountain to control Israel or for any other purpose it would be something to be discussed in the future,” Khala Ali, a PMU commander told FP. He acknowledged that Iran had directed the group to have a stronger presence in the region but refused to elaborate.

The Iraqi Army, meanwhile, has assured civilians that the area is safe, telling FP that the only reason Sinjar isn’t fully under its control is because of a lack of troops, said Maj. Gen. Najim Abdullah al-Jubouri, the Nineveh Operations commander.


Meanwhile, thousands of Yazidis who fled their homes four years ago remain wary and unconvinced, as painful memories of being abandoned and left to die by the Iraqi and Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces when the Islamic State attacked, remains singed in their minds.

More than 3,000 people are still sheltering on the side of the picturesque mountain range, preferring to brace for another cold winter in tattered tents than return to their homes. On a visit to Sinjar in October, more than a dozen Yazidis said they don’t trust any of the armed groups at the base of the mountain.

“If they don’t bring us an international force we won’t go back,” said Baraket Hudeda Castle. The 38-year-old Yazidi, a former officer in the Iraqi Army, was once a captive of the Islamic State and has been living on the mountainside since his family paid the jihadi group $60,000 for his release in the summer of 2014. “They told me they were going to cut off my head and mail it to my relatives,” he said, cringing as he recounted the month he spent as a captive in Syria.

Herto Hamrash Minut, 74, was kidnapped by Islamic State fighters in his village near Sinjar four years ago and held for more than eight months. “They’d starve us; it was like living in hell,” he said, hanging his head. Crouched outside his tent on the mountain surrounded by his two wives and 12 children, the frail old man traced his fingers over his ears. He lost most of his hearing during his time in captivity when his captors would hit him over the head. Minut’s family has been living on the mountain for more than a year with no plans to leave; they don’t even know who is responsible for their safety.

Most Yazidis on the mountain are pinning their hopes for a new future on one of their own. This year’s Nobel Peace Prize co-winner, Nadia Murad, is from Sinjar district, and was recognized for her efforts to end sexual violence as a weapon of war.

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize co-winner, Nadia Murad, is from Sinjar district, and was recognized for her efforts to end sexual violence as a weapon of war.

Murad was one of an estimated 6,500 Yazidi women and girls abducted and sold into sexual slavery when the Islamic State attacked in 2014. She managed to escape and make her way to Germany, where she now lives as a refugee and runs Nadia’s Initiative, an advocacy organization.

“We suffered but didn’t give up. We were not helped and rescued when ISIS attacked, but I hope this recognition means that the international community will help us recover from this genocide and will prevent such attacks against other communities like us in the future,” Murad told FP.


The 25-year-old is donating all her prize money to the organization and hopes the award will convince the Iraqi government as well as other countries to form a special task force to rescue the estimated 3,000 remaining Yazidi women and girls still held captive. Her organization is concerned that if real steps aren’t taken to help the community recover from the genocide that the Yazidis will forever disappear from the region.

“She was the first person to speak out and be courageous and talk about what happened to us. The most important thing she can help us do now is to bring back the Yazidi prisoners and help clean our land,” said Morat Alias, a Yazidi living on the mountain.

In October, the United States announced it was giving more than $178 million to support vulnerable communities in Iraq, specifically focusing on religious minorities, bringing the total amount of U.S assistance for vulnerable communities to nearly $300 million since the 2017 fiscal year, according to the State Department. But despite such shows of support, reconstruction in Sinjar is sluggish and a deeply skeptical Yazidi community is still too terrified to return, nervous that they’ll be targeted again.

Littered throughout the city’s dilapidated streets, remnants of the Islamic State’s brutal reign linger while fresh pledges of allegiance continue to surface posing a constant reminder that nearby sleeper cells lurk in the dark. Scribbled on the side of a house read the words, “ISIS will stay forever,” written in August by a 12-year-old boy, according to a neighbor.

“I think one day ISIS will come back,” said Qasim Morat, a local living in Sinjar. “It’s an ideology and you can’t get rid of them by killing.”

 

Sam Mednick is a freelance journalist and the South Sudan correspondent for The Associated Press. She covers conflict, post-conflict, and development and has written for VICE, the Guardian, Devex, and News Deeply, among others. @sammednick