Backroom moves over Sri Lanka Chief Justice pick

October 13, 2018, 12:00 pm 

ECONOMYNEXT - The political manoeuvring involving President Maithripala Sirisena and the Joint Opposition centred on the top Supreme Court post which was filled Friday with the appointment of low-profile career judge Nalin Perera.

Official sources close to Sirisena said he nominated Perera, 64, to be the next Chief Justice overlooking the senior most Supreme Court judge Eva Wanasundara who has a controversial record.

With the Supreme Court position finalised, the political moves to form a "caretaker government" fizzled out, both sides involved in the negotiations said.

Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa pooh-poohed the idea of his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) faction uniting with Sirisena’s SLFP rump after a week of inspired leaks that they were on the verge of forming a government.

Constitutional provisions would not allow the President to sack Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, but notwithstanding the obstacles both Sirisena and Rajapaksa kept up appearances without commenting on reports of their alleged secret negotiations.

"The real objective of floating this story was to mount pressure on the new High Court which took up the corruption case against Gotabhaya (Rajapaksa) and the other JO members facing similar prosecutions," a source close to the discussions said.

The central theme of talks between Sirisena and the Rajapaksa faction had been to get Wanasundara, who had publicly declared her close friendship with the former president, as the Chief Justice with a view to influencing cases against JO members.

The Chief Justice is also vested with powers to decide which cases should be directed to the newly established High Court trial-at-bar. The court has already scheduled Gotabhaya Rajapaksa’s trial to begin on December 4.

It was felt that Wanasundara would be overlooked despite being the seniormost judge. On Thursday, President Sirisena was to nominate just one name – Nalin Perera – as the replacement for outgoing Chief Justice Priyasath Dep.  

Wanasundara had granted Gotabhaya an interim order preventing his arrest in connection with several high profile cases.

She has subsequently recused herself from hearing Gotabhaya’s petition, thus giving him more time and delaying the investigations, legal sources said.

In contrast, the new Chief Justice Perera is regarded as a low profile judge with a proven track record starting as a magistrate and climbing the ladder in the judicial service. (COLOMBO, October 12, 2018)

Constitutional Council vacancies filled ; immediately commences ; Chamal is Sambanthan’s representative…

(Lanka e News -13.Oct.2018, 6.45 AM) The Parliament gave the approval on the 11 th to fill the vacancies in the Constitutional Council , and the names of those members to be appointed were  : Dr.Jayantha Dhanapala, Javed Yooosuf (lawyer) and Naganathan Selvakumaran (lecturer) .

The ten members of the constitutional council have now been appointed. The prime minister , speaker and opposition leader are officially appointed as members of the Council .

Already Mahinda Samarasinghe has been appointed as president’s representative . Chamal Rajapakse M.P. was appointed as representative of opposition leader and Talatha Atukorale was appointed this time as prime minister’s representative.  

JVP M.P. Bimal Ratnayake was appointed as representative of minority parties. 

According to the 19 th amendment to the  constitution the official  term of the  constitutional council is 03 years.

The second Constitutional Council appointed under good governance government was scheduled  to commence sittings on the 12  th ,as Priyasad Dep Chief justice  is due to retire on the 13  th ,  another member must be appointed in his place. 

The most senior of the judges after Dep is Eva Wanasundara.  However she can old the CJ post only for a short period of three months (retirement age) , and owing to her partiality she is unlikely to be appointed. Based on unofficial reports, the next in line is Nalin Perera and it is his name that is proposed. 

---------------------------
by     (2018-10-13 01:12:54)

Grade Five Scholarship Exam & Popular Schools

By Kirthi Tennakone –OCTOBER 13, 2018

Prof. Kirthi Tennakone

On release of fifth grade scholarship examination scores, our society trembles. It is an escalating annually periodic disruption of a buildup social pressure.  Parents of kids who have earned marks above the cut-off point, celebrate and publicize the achievement. Yet the worries continue until the child is admitted to a best school of their choice.  Teachers and tutors claim that their effort, paved way for students to succeed. 

The larger percentage of fifth graders unsuccessful in reaching the required level are considered second class, imposing a feeling of inferiority and incapability in their minds. Parents blame and mourn, adding to the negative mindset of the child. Seeking alternatives sometimes destabilize the functions of a family. The gross damage caused by the scheme seems to outweigh the intended merit.

Performance and intellectual potential of a child cannot be judged solely by a stereotype repetitive style examination. Here, practice and keeping information at fingertips contribute more than analytical skills, creativity and innovativeness. The latter are the attributes which needs to be identified and nurtured to enable children undertake future challenges. Play, enjoyment, reading beyond exam agenda, improvising toys and imagining things and attempting to make them realties are activities that greatly tune a young mind, fostering curiosity. Persons with such childhood experiences turn into scientific discoverers, inventors, entrepreneurs, writers and other achievers, the society desires. Children pushed, starting from kindergarten or first grade to take-up the scholarship exam, have no time to engage in such activities which parents generally discourage, diverting them to tuition.

Definitely, the aim of mass education is not only to deliver highest level achievers, but a system inclined towards this goal, produces rationally thinking responsible citizens – an effective way of curbing social evils.     

Striving for fifth grade scholarship is to gain entry to so-called popular schools. Today, the public determines the popularity of a school, largely by the number of students who had entered medical and engineering streams in universities in the recent years. Reason is most parents wish to qualify their sons and daughters as doctors or engineers aiming to secure their financial future. Science, humanities and arts and languages are considered as less profitable options. Frequently, parents decide what the sons and daughters should pursue, ignoring their talent and interest.

Sri Lanka’s continued political will to support education has delivered its goods effectively to the extent of supplying a work force to do the routine services. We have competent officials, good doctors engineers and teachers. However, we are badly short of discoverers, inventors, entrepreneurs, productive famers and radical thinkers. It is this category that advances the society forward, intellectually and economically. An education system based on strict  examination rankings, kills necessary qualities in the filtration process , discarding a residue full of  ‘jewels’ as ‘gravel’.  

The grade five scholarship exam was commissioned with good intension of providing an opportunity for the unprivileged student. Now it has gone to extremes with aggravating adverse consequences. The school admission system necessitates reformation, eliminating the present evaluation system and redefining the concept of the popular school? 

Popular schools are believed to possess better infrastructure facilities and teachers.  It may be true that their buildings are spacious and science laboratories have sophisticated equipment locked-up in cupboards. It could also be true that students in popular schools spend more time in tuition kiosks than in the school class room, library, laboratory or the playground. In reality, the popular schools have evolved as a tradition of students mastering the state-of-art in passing competitive exams or excelling in sports. The trend continues through overlapping of student generations, unless interrupted by a bad administration. The ‘quality’ of students the popular schools enroll, provide broader and diverse exposure to the avenues of success. A significant percentage brilliant students catalytically influence the whole school. Nonetheless, popular schools in present form seems to resemble centers that collect an ‘over refined product’ and ‘dilute’ it in processing to deliver a ‘marketable commodity’. Unfortunately refinement as well as dilution greatly lower the concentration of the ‘good essence ‘.   

Read More

Coming out of this “Fools Paradise”

2018-10-12

The dwindling Rupee has jerked the “Yahapalana” (Good Governance) government wide awake to face “the reality” they preferred to ignore. Since assuming office in January 2015 and promising a better managed economy and jobs, comfortable living and social stability, the “yahapalana rulers” are now told by a depreciating Rupee that they have completely failed. On a heavily depreciated Rupee, President Sirisena is now speculating whether to give into Rajapaksa’s demand to rule the roost.   

Against this backdrop of the latest promise by SLFP rebels to form an “Interim Government” led by Rajapaksa after defeating the Budget 2019, “Yahapalana” economics have not been able to stem the Rupee fall. PM Wickremesinghe now says it is a global crisis, not just ours. That clears US President Donald Trump and Rajapaksa’s Chinese loans of any culpability. If Rajapaksa is able to win his gamble of an “Interim Government” without any backtracking by Sirisena , the blame for the Rupee decline would be left squarely on “Yahapalanaya rule” for Rajapaksa’s convenience.  

Yet the story of the Rupee would not come to an end on that or any sooner. Since 1978 with the free market economy, the Rupee came crumbling too. In early 1977, the Rupee was 5.95 for a US dollar. After President Jayewardene devalued the Rupee in late 1977,it was 16.00 per US dollar in 1978. During the Premadasa era it was Rs.25.79. During Madam Kumaranatunge’s two terms as President the Rupee declined further from 34.92 in 1995 November to 44.39 in end 2005. At the closing of the year 2014 when Rajapaksa went to polls, the Rupee was 131.21. In less than four years of “Yahapalanaya” rule the Rupee has hit a devastating low of 170 for a US dollar. Despite small and short random appreciations twice or thrice during this whole 40-year period, the Rupee has continually depreciated by 284 per cent under every President and every Finance Minister in every government in this heavily liberalized free market economy.  

This free market economy also left an ever widening foreign trade deficit all through 40 years. Ushered in when the foreign trade deficit in 1978 was 68.5 million USD, the deficit grew to 721.0 million,12 years later in 1990. When we stepped into the New Millennium, it was 838 million USD. When elections were fought in end 2014 to oust Rajapaksa the deficit was 8,201.66 million and three years of “Yahapalana” rule, further increased the foreign trade deficit to Rs.9,600 million USD at the end of 2017.  

Against a growing foreign trade deficit, the export income could only cover around 50 per cent of the import cost.Though ‘experts’ speak of an “impressive export growth in 2017”, the revenue was only 11.4 billion USD, against an import cost of 21 billion.Success of the apparel industry that is said to earn around 40 per cent of foreign trade income is a total lie. All raw material and accessories for apparel manufacture is imported at around 18 per cent of our total import expense (based on data from World Integrated Trade Solution). In 2017, while apparel export income was boasted as 4.82 billion USD, the cost of imported raw materials was around 3.8 billion.This leaves only aone billion USD gain from apparels. Compared to heavy cost the tax payers incur to provide numerous concessions and benefits to these export manufacturers packaged with an uncivilized, unconstitutional leverage to axe trade union rights of workers, a nett gain of one billion in 2017 is actually a loss. The pathetic side of these much fancied export manufacture revenue earned through FDIs, is told by migrant labour.Young women who slave for a pauper’s wage in the Mid East included, migrant labour remitted 7.1 billion USD the same year,that amounts to over 60 per cent of the total revenue from all goods exported.  

The larger majority though used as voters to periodically elect governments are left in the periphery of the urban centred market. Free market also leaves education, health and public transport almost in chaos with governments not taking responsibility

This continuing perversion in a free market for the “filthy rich” has left an expanding Colombo city packed with sprawling high-rise apartments, shopping malls, restaurants, private hospital complexes, jogging paths, car parks with snail pace vehicular traffic on all roads. Meanwhile, the vehicle import industry has grown into a disturbing but a high-profit trade. We thus had 1.09 million 3wheelers, 3.5 million motorcycles and 6.6 million vehicles on the roads, end 2016. It also means, an adult population of around 15 million has 11 million private vehicles of two, three or four wheels. High speed commercially expanding Colombo with two or three satellite urban centres around, has left 70.4 million rural lives without decent incomes. Micro finance companies have moved ruthlessly to exploit the desperate efforts of these men and women in finding livelihood opportunities. It had left people as beggars with no social right to beg. They have to struggle to “survive and exist”.  

The larger majority though used as voters to periodically elect governments are left in the periphery of the urban centred market. Free market also leaves education, health and public transport almost in chaos with governments not taking responsibility. With judiciary and law enforcement accepted as inefficient and corrupt,justice and fair play remains a distant dream without big money or political power to lean on. Free market “democracy” is not for the two million plus workers. Fundamental right to form trade unions and become members guaranteed by the Constitution under 14(1)(d) in Chapter III is consciously and ruthlessly denied to workers on terms and conditions laid down by employers. This now brings the added threat of losing employment to cheap labour brought from India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and China.The type of bonded labour the Britishers brought for the plantations, a Century and a half ago.  

That’s what “development” is in this free market economy. The passed forty years has proved that “development through FDIs and export manufacture is a horrible false promise.Free market performance has only been far worse year on year and cannot even provide for half of our needs. It has also proved that all what the people sacrificed in terms of tax revenue, debts incurred and dwindling rupee with violations of fundamental rights have only led to mega corruption all round and mayhem in governance.  

Forty years is no short life in a nation. Forty years of plunder and looting in this free market has left a country, no one can honestly say “I am proud to be Sri Lankan”, unless paid for commercial advertising. This situation demands, and the people must demand at least a basic programme for socio economic and cultural improvement of life that would reach rural society as well. People should demand a new paradigm in development from political leaders, before listening to their stupid promises about change of governments “to save the country”. People need to demand a development paradigm based on:  

1.  Implementation of the APRC Final Report in full within 06 months, after making it a public document for social discourse

2. Ensuring Chapter III, Constitution 14(1) is effectively guaranteed in full with trade union rights included in BOI guidelines as mentioned in the Constitution

3. A five-year national socio economic and cultural development programme with due importance for environmental safety and improvement included and also clear identification of areas that FDIs should be sought for, made public for social discourse before parliament approves it for implementation 

4. A disaster management plan for districts identified for possible earth slips and floods with environmental safety nets and development/improvement of the national green canopy 

5. An educational reforms committee mandated to propose within a year through public consultations, far reaching reforms in all aspects of formal education including higher education

6. Develop a national health policy with greater emphasis on preventive and community health services,giving provincial administration the power to administer and implement

7. Public commuter transport, both rail and road, to be the responsibility of the government and developed as efficient, comfortable and affordable, combined commuter service

8. Complete ban on vehicle import permits and import of vehicles to be strictly regulated for public and State needs

9. The construction of high rise apartments, condominiums and shopping malls  to be immediately controlled and regulated with serious and important focus given to neighbourhood social space and common utilities  

10.  New cess levy (Rs.10 per litre) on all imported fruit and synthetic beverages/cordials/drinks to be channelled to a legally constituted state of the art Agri Research Centre that should develop new post harvest technologies, value adding processes for shelf life, new crops for commercial farming (Wood apple, Beli fruit etc,) within agreed time frames

11. Develop freshwater fish culturing through cottage level farming with a floor price slapped on ‘fingerlings’ and a cess levied on all imported (though locally canned) fish to be used for promotion of fresh water fish farming

12. Abolish the present annual decentralised budgeting for members of parliament with equal allocations provided to provincial councils with special development projects with proven feasibility

If society does not take the responsibility to hold political parties and their leaders responsible for holistic development on a clear programme agreed upon through people’s participation, the crumbling Rupee may see the “yahapalanaya” government crumble too. But that would definitely not bring answers to a crumbling economy and a continuously fooled society living in a ‘fool’s paradise’.  

Our Spectator Democracy

BY SARATH DE ALWIS-14 October, 2018

Opinion

Nothing can be said about our politics that has not already been said about hemorrhoids. It is truly a pain in that part of the human anatomy. Hypocrisy is the single synonym for ‘pragmatic politics.’

Contemporary political science identifies several types of democracies. What we have today after January 8, 2015 is a spectator democracy. Before that in the five post-civil war years we had a zombie or a voodoo democracy. A meaningful democracy needs institutional resilience. Two constitutional experiments in 1972 and 1978 put an effective end to conventions of precedent and continuity.

Today, we the people are in the amphitheatre watching the ‘Yahapalana’ President and ‘Good Governance’ Prime Minister practising and enacting democracy. Our role is to watch them perform and give or deny applause.

I am not particularly smart with the smart phone. Yet, with the meagre know how I have acquired in Facebooking and Whatsapping, it appears to me, that the ruling duo earn a ‘helluva lot’ of applause of a different variety.

The 19th Amendment was enacted in the first hundred days. In the first hundred days the bond boondoggle was also precipitated. The upheaval that followed was fatal. The government lost its credibility. The finest example of this assertion was the recent sermonizing by five eminent money bags who politely insisted that the Government did not know its business at a make-believe fireside chat at the Hilton, Colombo.

The Prime Minster is remote, unresponsive and unaccountable. The other day we saw it in Parliament. When asked to explain the fuel price formula, he delivered a homily on the geopolitics of fossil fuels.

He operates through handpicked confidantes. With the release of the Bond Commission findings, the Government lost its sense of direction. The reform agenda was replaced by protests of honesty and integrity of the would-be reformers. Loyalty to the party and allegiance to its leader superseded truth and conscience.

The President is preoccupied in reclaiming a constituency he never owned in the first place. He claims that his mission is to reunite the SLFP. If that was his political imperative, he should have served himself a few more hoppers and remained at Mahinda Rajapaksa’s dinner table.

Instead, he allowed himself to be adopted as the common candidate. It was to dislodge the former President. When we persuaded him to be the common candidate, we did not request him to make personal remarks about stallions from the stables of Buckingham Palace.

Quite unsolicited, on the day of his swearing in, he assured us that it was the first and the only time he contested for the Executive Presidency. The poor man was reeling under the weight of the immensity of the task. On that fateful day, he sure meant it.

Politicians are ordinary humans. They can go back on a statement gently without resorting to haughty moralizing tantrums. The holier than thou attitude is a telltale sign of crass hypocrisy.

Under the war winning President Mahinda Rajapaksa, we did not have a ‘spectator democracy’. We were not expected to watch or applaud. Our consent was taken for granted. We had to comply. It was a ‘voodoo democracy’ of Mahinda Rajapaksa, his brothers, his children and his extended family.

The nauseous, stomach churning governance by their successors has made us so desperate that we have erased from our collective conscience, the terrible memories of the ‘voodoo democracy’ of the Rajapaksa family. Lest we forget, we lived in a virtual bubble, hermetically insulated from global connectivity.

Of course, Mahinda called himself a democrat. It was a funny kind of democracy. We lived in self-imposed compliance of the regime. We were terrified into screaming patriotic slogans.

We admired with great awe the leader who saved us from destruction. While a good segment of society willingly goose stepped on command, an equally substantial segment was reconciled to wait to bide their time under the repressive heel of the ‘mercenary enforcer state.’

We thought we gained a respite on January 8, 2015. In ending the ‘voodoo democracy ‘of the Rajapaksa family, we set out on an expedition, the end of which we could not know in advance. Now we know. ‘Yahapalanaya’ is not merely a hackneyed utterance. It is a plain, palpable obscenity.

In the light of cold experience, we know that the UNP – SLFP coalition is an alliance devoid of a coherent policy or principle.

We have arrived at a pivotal point. What kind of hypocrite should we choose in 2020? There is the hypocrite who promised to end corruption. There is another hypocrite who claims that he alone can extricate us from the debt trap. Then comes the toweringly tall hypocrite who claims not to have laid a finger in the cookie jar. In the shadows await the hypocrite who wants to unite all patriots and smash up the rest of the world.

This is not a cynical rant. This is an honest, down to earth assessment of our contemporary political sweep.

Pretending that any one of the current aspirants for the presidency is undeniably sincere in purpose or intent would make us far more hypocritical than the entire lot engaged in politics.

All is not lost. The mandate of January 8, 2015 is for the abolition of the Executive Presidency. President Sirisena and Premier Wickremesinghe can recoup some of their lost credibility by agreeing to convert their spectator democracy into a plebiscitary democracy. The Supreme Court has ruled that the 20th Amendment can be passed with a two thirds majority and a referendum. By endorsing the 20th Amendment the good governance coalition could salvage some of its lost credibility.

Unfolding events offer us more than adequate proof that politics can never be a sincere vocation. The practice of politics requires some degree of hypocrisy. We could live with that. But this brazen hypocrisy?

Last week, we read about a meeting between President Sirisena and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa at the residence of parliamentarian S.B.Dissanayake.

It was speculated that the meeting would lead to other weighty developments including “a change in the political landscape of the country.”

Splendidly voluble, obtusely verbose S.B.Dissanayake has denied that the two had met at his residence as was reported. The former President has denied the meeting on the alleged day and date but not the encounter per se.

The glib denial has not stopped the guesswork or conjecture. People know better. They do not expect S.B.Dissanayake to be accurate with the truth. S.B is a versatile trapeze artiste. Give the devil his due. He is constantly in the circus, pushing the limits of fakery and distortion in public life.

What about the two adversaries who are alleged to have attended the hush hush encounter? Both men have tasted power. They both know that those who seek power do so not to relinquish it to another.

The Leader of the House Lakshman Kiriella has assured the House that “there would be no change in the Government as claimed by the Opposition”. He has even gone further. This Government according to him “was not prepared nor had it any mandate to form a government with the political parties that were rejected by the people.” Now that is really thick.

Mr.Kirielle has forgotten who S.B.Dissanayake is. SB was rejected in the Kandy district that Mr.Kirielle represents. SB was appointed on the UPFA National List. Mr.Kirielle was quite comfortable with rejected SB as a Cabinet colleague in the purported ‘National Government ‘ that exists merely to reward loyalty with ministerial perks.

The National Government is the epitome of political hypocrisy. Forget catching crooks. The past three years offers adequate evidence to show that spectator democracy is a game that both sides are well equipped to play. Nobody is cash strapped.

Nobody has complained of lack of resources to mobilize mass protests on the streets. It is good to know the truth. The battle for hearts and minds is well oiled. Oligarchs spawned by the ‘voodoo democracy’ are already in the business of conquering mental and emotional territory of the tribe.
Political propaganda is a subtle business. Anybody watching our electronic media would know how easy it is to attack and seduce mass perceptions by erecting walls around weak arguments. We must pin our hopes on the 20th Amendment.

Checkmate Politics II – Diminishing options for MS, MR and RW 

Rajan Philips-October 13, 2018, 12:00 pm

There is no presidential checkmate after all as many of us were alerted to last week. President Sirisena is in no position to checkmate anyone. No surprise there. He has burnt his boats with the UNP, and even Mahinda Rajapaksa cannot rally everyone in the JO to support a new political arrangement with the old defector. It is now reported that Maithripala Sirisena first approached the UNP to canvass for a second term as President with UNP support, and only after being rebuffed by the UNP that he sought an alliance with the Rajapaksas. It is also known that there were quite a few meetings between Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa, which would only confirm that the former President has been quite serious about pursuing a deal with the current incumbent. And obviously because a second term Sirisena presidency is the only way to secure a path for the now underage Namal Rajapaksa to become president in 2024. That the former President could not get others on board for this scheme shows how tenuous and tentative are the loyalties within the Joint Opposition. Be that as it may.

There have been two versions of reporting on the UNP’s rebuffing of Sirisena’s overtures. One is that the UNP insisted that Sirisena could not be the same common opposition candidate again, as he was in 2014-15, but only come into an alliance as a subordinate to the UNP. That was unacceptable to Sirisena. The second version is that the UNP offered to keep Sirisena as president after 2020 but under a 20th Amendment scenario – with the current executive presidency ‘abolished’ and the new president elected by parliament and not directly in a national election. But President Sirisena, or his advisers, did not agree to the second alternative either. Whoever is advising the President is not doing a very good job, for the 20th Amendment route would have been the best, indeed the only option for Maithripala Sirisena to remain as ‘president’ after 2020.

Presidential dilemmas

That the UNP is still toying with the idea of ‘abolishing’ the presidency is not out of any principled commitment to getting rid of the executive presidency. It only shows the UNP’s anxieties over the uncertainties of a presidential election and the chances of Ranil Wickremesinghe winning it for once, and against all odds. Therein is the catch-22 for all the presidential contenders – from the Rajapaksas to Ranil Wickremesinghe to Maithripala Sirisena. None of them is bold enough to be the first to support the 20th Amendment to abolish the elected presidency. Nor is any one of them certain at all about winning the next presidential election.

For the Rajapaksas and the UNP, executive presidency causes an additional headache – the headache of finding a winning candidate. The problem for the Rajapaksas is that there are too many of them, uncles and son(s), to pick from. And many in the JO are enamoured by the candidacy of only Mahinda Rajapaksa who is barred from contesting by the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. On the other hand, many in the UNP may not at all be enamoured by the candidacy of Ranil Wickremesinghe, but they are all barred from saying anything about it under the Constitution of the United National Party. Plain commonsense should dictate that both for Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe the ideal way out would have been to support the JVP’s 20th Amendment and get rid of having an elected president. But taking that route may now prove too late for both of them.

The JVP’s Bill for amending the constitution is not clinically dead yet, but is on the Order Paper which may prove to be its death bed. Giving that Bill legislative legs will require the joint support of all three of the current principal political contenders – President Sirisena, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and former President Rajapaksa. Not surprisingly, the Supreme Court has ruled that the 20th Amendment will require both a two-thirds majority in parliament and a referendum thereafter. Neither is achievable without the three leaders coming together to marshal their numbers in parliament and mobilize support at the referendum. It is not impossible to envisage such a united effort for thoroughly selfish reasons, but it is rather improbable that the three men will individually and collectively show the level of enlightenment that is required. That is their dilemma.

Post 19A, the current President cannot dissolve parliament until after August 1919, regardless of what happens to the November budget. There is no provision in the Constitution that permits the formation of a ‘caretaker’ government after a budget defeat in parliament. A budget defeat will only lead to the dissolution of the cabinet and not of parliament. What is more, just as it happened during the No Confidence Motion scheming, the talk of defeating the November budget has united the UNP MPs and no one is going to defect from the UNP to vote against the budget. The UNP is still the single largest contingent in parliament and has the best chance of mobilizing a parliamentary majority on any vote. Even the SLFP ministers are more likely to vote for the budget than against it. So the plan to defeat the UNP on its budget is more than likely a non-starter.

In the upshot, there is no other way out for President Sirisena if he wants to remain in politics, let alone as President of some kind, than working to secure the passage of the 20th Amendment through parliament and in a referendum. The onus is on President Sirisena to canvas the support of Mahinda Rajapaksa to support the enactment of the 20th Amendment. The JO and the SLPP are internally divided on 20A, but it is quite possible that on a free vote, the more left-oriented and progressive elements of the SLPP and the Joint Opposition may support the 20th Amendment. 20A will also have the blessings of all the Rajapaksas, with the possible exception of Gotabhaya Rajapaksa who is not in parliament anyway. For its part, the UNP must come out of the closet and openly support 20A and test the waters for a two-thirds majority in parliament. The three leaders supporting a ‘yes’ vote for the 20th Amendment will be an unprecedented national consensus in Sri Lanka’s constitutional history. But it is still a stretch too far.

It’s not about the economy

The 20th Amendment is also not about the economy. It is about fulfilling a promise to the people that all three contenders made in January 2015. Mahinda Rajapaksa had made the same promise twice before – in 2005 and 2010. Yet, a new referendum is needed under the sloppy terminology of the constitution. Looking at it positively, the referendum will provide the opportunity for the three leaders to support the same promise (to abolish the elected presidency) without opposing one another. They will have plenty of time and mud to throw around in a parliamentary election after a successful 20th Amendment referendum. The one difference, if this still farfetched plan were to work out, is that Maithripala Sirisena could by then be a new President elected by parliament but staying above the electoral fray as any Head of State should.

In the current circumstances, President Sirisena apparently played the economy card with Mahinda Rajapaksa: that they should get back together to save the national economy from going to ruin under Ranil Wickremesinghe. Political memories are not that short, for Sirisena had made the identical complaint and plea about Mahinda Rajapaksa to Ranil Wickremesinghe four years ago. There is now a huge debate in the news media as to when Sri Lanka’s economy was worse: at the end of 2014 after ten years of Rajapaksa rule, or now after four years of Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government? The debate is silly and personal on one side, and responsible and professional on the other. The good reader will know who is on which side. And in whose hands the Sri Lankan economy is better left with.

This week’s market turbulence is another cause for concern about the near term uncertainties in the global economy. In what is being called the new global divergence, the US economy is steaming ahead of Europe and Japan, creating many consequential issues including the currency turmoil in emerging economies. The consensus is that the divergence is untenable but the question is about the direction in which the next equilibrium will be reached. The better direction for the global economy is for the other advanced economies to move up and catch up with the US. The worse option is for the US to slide back with others in a different equilibrium. There is not much even Alan Greenspan can do in Sri Lanka today even though a certain economic charlatan thinks he is Lanka’s Greenspan.

There is no quick turnaround for the national economy, except consistently smart and quick-response management to minimize the blows from exogenous factors, while equally consistently laying the foundation for a strong product economy. Political leadership on both sides has irresponsibly failed in avoiding the waste of forex reserves for importing luxury vehicles for parliamentarians and bureaucrats for quick sale and huge returns in the domestic market. The new political leadership that was promised in 2015 has been delivered only in betrayal and not any achievements. There is no alternative to picking up the pieces from where they were left in January 2015. The historic irony is that the country needs the same three failed men to do one last thing right before exiting the political stage. As aging men, they have few options before them.

Caretaker government Who is fooling whom?

President Sirisena was furious about the Central Bank bond scam

Was displeased with the way the UNP was managing the economy

2018-10-12

Political parties in the country are obsessed these days with speculation about a caretaker Government that is to be jointly formed by the joint opposition headed by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) headed by President Maithripala Sirisena.   

The speculation got wings after some news items over the matter published in last Sunday’s newspapers saying that a discussion had been held between the former and the present Presidents on this matter.   

The speculation is being floated with people calling the Government that is said to be under discussion by various names such as caretaker Government (Bharakara Aanduwa), coalition Government (Sabhaga Aanduwa) and interim Government (Antharwara Aanduwa).   

Except for the report in The Sunday Times, all stories in other weekend newspapers on the matter were very vague and too speculative, whereas The Sunday Times report was specific in respect of the participants, venue, and the details of the discussion on the caretaker Government.   

It said that the discussion had taken place on October 3 at the Battaramulla residence of former minister S.B. Dissanayake, who was one of the 16 SLFP parliamentarians, who resigned from the government after supporting the no confidence motion against Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in April. 

According to that story, former economic development minister Basil Rajapaksa has also participated in the discussion where a proposal to appoint Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister replacing Wickremesinghe until the next Parliamentary election had been discussed. It must be remembered that Basil Rajapaksa cut short his recent visit to his home in Los Angeles after a call by his brother, the former President to return to the country immediately.

During the talks, according to The Sunday times, President Sirisena had said that the Prime Minister was scuttling many of his efforts and it was extremely difficult to work with him.   

However, this was not a new complaint by the President as it was a well-known fact that he had attempted to remove Mr. Wickremesinghe from the post of Prime Minister in the wake of the February 10 LocalGovernment elections. 

The speculation got wings after some news items over the matter published in the last Sunday newspapers saying that a discussion had been held between the former and the present Presidents on this matter

It was also said that at the time the President had sought the opinion of the Attorney General on whether there were provisions in the Constitution to remove the Prime Minister.   

The current scenario is similar to what emerged in the wake of the LG election in February

The President who has been openly criticizing the Prime Minister and the UNP during the LG election campaign has allowed or persuaded his ministers then to negotiate with the Joint Opposition on the possibility of forming a new government. Then the broker for the patch- up effort between the SLFP and the JO was Susil Premajayantha who was then a Cabinet minister. He even discussed the matter with the JO Parliamentary group. The JO suggested to form a minority Government by the SLFP with them supporting from outside. The former President did not prefer his group to take ministerial posts.   

On February 21, the SLFP even announced its divorce from the UNP, bringing up the speculation of a SLFP Government with the support of the JO to a peak. But ludicrously, the SLFP announced next day that it would remain in the Government with the UNP, shattering all hopes of the JO to control the government. The reason cited for the backpedalling by the SLFP was the uncertainity about the numbers  needed to form such a Government which was an obvious fact from the beginning.   

But the former president and S.B. Dissanayake had denied that a meeting had been held with the President at Dissanayake’s residence. However, the UNP seems to have taken the story seriously. UNP Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa, in an effort to rekindle the enmity between the President and the former president had recalled a statement made by President Sirisena that he would have been six feet underground had he lost the 2015 presidential election. Premadasa, while praising the President for taking such a risk at the presidential election said the President would not betray the mandate given by the people just for the sake of a caretaker government. And as happened after the LG election some UNP leaders have started to express their willingness to form a Government of their own.   

However, as it had been evident soon after the LG elections, the possibility of forming an alternative to the current SLFP-UNP coalition government seems to be extremely remote, given the strength of the parties in the Parliament.   

Whether the efforts for a caretaker government would end up in fruition or not, all three groups involved in it seem to have different objectives. They will attempt to reach their respective targets, irrespective of what the fate of the proposed caretaker Government is.   

It is the President’s displeasure with the Prime Minister that has been cited as the main reason for the President to revive his efforts to find an alternative to his coalition with the UNP. The ill-feeling between the President and the UNP has been growing since early 2016. The President had even accused the UNP of defending the corrupt leaders of the former regime and instrumental in delaying and stalling of high profile corruption cases against them.   

The media reported last year that he had lamented at a meeting with UNP leaders that it was he and not the latter who would have to face the consequences of these delays, in the case of a comeback by the Rajapaksas. Also he was furious over the Central Bank bond scam which many UNP leaders had been attempting to cover-up while defending the culprits.   

This is the second time in Sri Lanka’s history when the Prime Minister is seemingly acting independently of the executive President. A similar situation prevailed when the same UNP leader held the post of Prime Minister during President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s tenure. Thus, the President seems to have given vent to his frustration over some of the UNP ministers taking decisions ignoring him. He reversed some of those decisions such as the one to allow women to work at liquor shops, by using his executive powers.   

Later he expressed his displeasure with the way the UNP was managing the economy and replaced the Economic Management Committee headed by the Prime Minister with the National Economic Council (NEC) headed by him. Knowing very well that he is unable to oust the UNP from the Government becuase it has the most number of seats in Parliament, he is appearing to at least to tame the UNP.   

On the other hand, a seasoned politician that he is, Rajapaksa also knows that his group and the group headed by the President do not have the necessary numbers in the Parliament to form a government. But he seems to be in a move to pressure the Government to resign by breaking up the ruling coalition, using the President’s aversion towards the UNP. Hence, he demands the withdrawal of the SLFP from the coalition with the UNP, as a condition for a caretaker government.   

The third group that badly needs a patch-up between the president and the former president is the 16 SLFP MPs including S.B. Dissanayake, who have been left destitute after resigning from the Government in April. They were neither allowed by the UNP to cling on to their ministerial posts nor were they welcomed into the former President’s fold. Thus their only hope seems to be a patch-up between the two factions of the UPFA.   

Therefore, the attempts to form a caretaker government seem to be nothing but another round of efforts by the concerned stakeholders to hoodwink each other. 

Formation of Caretaker Government, a myth or a reality?

OCT 14 2018

President Maithripala Sirisena who left for Seychelles on a two-day official visit amidst speculations of forming a Caretaker Government with the help of arch rival Mahinda Rajapaksa, returned to Colombo on Wednesday (10 October) morning as the Joint Opposition was debating the idea of joining hands with Sirisena.
President Sirisena, who paid a two-day State visit to Seychelles on the invitation of his Seychelles counterpart, Danny Faure, attended high level bilateral talks where the two sides agreed to take the existing cooperation between the two countries to a higher level.

The leaders of both countries agreed to take forward the strong relations between Sri Lanka and Seychelles in the fields of trade and tourism.

On arrival at the State House, President Sirisena was warmly received by Seychelles President Faure and a Guard of Honour was held. After a cordial meeting between the leaders, the bilateral discussions commenced.

During this meeting, the President said that he will give instructions to the relevant sectors to improve the relations between the business forums of both countries. The President also noted that it is expected to get more Sri Lankan businessmen to participate in the trade fair to be held in Seychelles at the end of this year.

The two parties discussed regarding the mutually important bilateral and regional issues.

The Seychelles President praised President Sirisena’s initiative to eradicate drug abuse and requested his assistance to find a solution to the drug menace which is a threat to his country, too. The Seychelles President expressed his gratitude to President Sirisena for providing assistance to improve the health sector in Seychelles and requested to provide training opportunities to Seychelles doctors in Sri Lanka.

He also requested President Sirisena to assist in granting military training opportunities to Seychelles security forces members in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it was requested to assist in obtaining training for judicial and legal drafting sectors.

The President, paying his attention to these requests, said that he will speedily take action to make necessary arrangements in this regard and promised to award ten scholarships annually to the Seychelles students in the field of vocational training.

Expressing his views, Seychelles President Danny Faure said that he will be grateful for the assistance given by Sri Lanka not only as a friend but like a brotherly State.

The President of Seychelles also stressed that they are ready to provide any support to Sri Lanka to develop the fields of economic and trade sectors as well as to provide any support to Sri Lanka at any time assistance is needed.

This tour of President Sirisena taking place at the time of completion of 30 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries, will mark a new milestone in the bilateral relationship between the two countries, the Seychelles President said.

Diplomatic relations between Seychelles and Sri Lanka commenced on 3 October 1988. The Sri Lankan High Commission in Seychelles was established in 2013. The President of Seychelles also stated that a permanent place will be allocated for the construction of the Sri Lankan High Commission, which is currently functioning in a leased building.

Nearly, 2,400 Sri Lankan workers are serving in Seychelles and the President also extended his thankfulness to the Seychelles President for the support given to the welfare of those employees.

Marking his State visit, President Sirisena planted a seed in the National Botanical Garden of Seychelles. President Sirisena was welcomed at the Botanical Garden by Waila Pecrocrow, Seychells Minister of Environment, and Raymond Brioche, CEO of the National Foundation of Botanical Gardens.  After planting a seed of Coco de Mer, an endemic plant of Seychelles, the President observed the botanical garden, which is known for its exemplary work in education, conservation and landscaping and which is a major tourist attraction in the country since it was established in 1901.

On the same day, the President was speaking at the "Miridiya Waruna 2018" awards ceremony held at the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall when he received information about the decision by President of Seychells to release all Sri Lankan fishermen in their custody.

Caretaker Government

The already severed relationship between President Sirisena and PM Ranil Wickremesinghe took another leap with both Sirisena faction and the Rajapaksa confirming speculations that the two parties actually met.

While it was made to appear that the suggestion to form a Caretaker Government came from President Sirisena’s side, the Joint Opposition (JO) led by former President Rajapaksa remains extremely sceptical of the proposal citing their difficulties in having faith in President Sirisena.

Former Minister Basil Rajapaksa, at a meeting chaired by Mahinda Rajapaksa, at Prof. G.L. Peiris’ residence on Tuesday (09), has attempted to enlighten SLFP Parliamentarians in the Joint Opposition.

“I am aware that most people in the Joint Opposition also have doubts about me and my intentions. While I cannot disclose where and who were there, it is true that we met President Sirisena and talked about serious political issues. We also explained what is needed to be done in order for us to understand that he is genuine,” Basil informed the gathering.

Accordingly, the former strongman of the Rajapaksa Government has told JO members that he asked Sirisena to replace incumbent Inspector General of Police (IGP) as he continues to harass Rajapaksa family members and other JO members. His other request has been appointing an independent and unbiased individual to the post of Chief Justice.

However, from what was said by JO members in the aftermath, it is clear that there is a clear division amongst JO ranks in forming a Caretaker Government.

President Sirisena does not have the ability to gather the required number of MPs in order to establish a Caretaker Government and under such circumstances, it is a joke to talk about a Caretaker Government, JO MP Kumara Welgama said.

He said that the group of 15, including Dilan Perera is once again trying to hoodwink the JO and send them on a wild goose chase.

According to him, the main objective of this proposal is to make Rajapaksa the Prime Minister and nominate Maithripala Sirisena as the next Presidential candidate.

Welgama noted that he is not prepared to be hoodwinked again, adding that although he loves the SLFP he is not happy about the current leadership.

He further said that in the event Mahinda Rajapaksa decides to form a Caretaker Government, he would oppose it and would not accept any ministerial post in such a Government.

Though both Rajapaksas have ignored Welgama’s plea to sit in the Opposition even alone, Mahinda Rajapaksa has further explained to the group that the Caretaker Government, if formed, would be for a period of one year.

He also said that the Cabinet will have to be reduced to 15 ministers in this period.

Meanwhile, information from President Sirisena faction suggests that the SLFP is also planning to propose an alternative budget for 2019. While it is yet to be confirmed, various sources claimed that President Sirisena’s side has already entrusted a once powerful individual in the last regime to draft these budget proposals.
According to these sources, if Sirisena is serious about getting rid of UNP-led government, he will present this Budget Proposals to the Cabinet along with Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera’s Budget Proposals which will be presented in Parliament on 5 November.

The Appropriation Bill was already passed by the Cabinet and was presented in Parliament last Tuesday (9).

Meanwhile, with reports emerging to the effect that President Sirisena has assured the majority in Parliament in the event of forming a Caretaker Government more than 11 UNP MPs have already pledged support, UNP backbenchers also announced they will get the numbers and form their own Government.

New CJ

Few days after Basil Rajapaksa allegedly requesting President Sirisena to appoint an independent and unbiased person to the post of Chief Justice, Justice Nalin J. Perera was sworn in as country’s 46th Chief Justice by President Sirisena on Friday (12) evening.

This appointment received mixed reactions with one sector questioning the seniority of Justice Perera while others justifying the appointment on the grounds, him being the most senior career judge in the country.

Justice Perera is the first career judge to be appointed the Chief Justice in almost three decades.

The last career judge to become the Chief Justice, before Perera, was Parinda Ranasinghe who was elevated to the position of Chief Justice by former President J.R.Jayewardene in 1988. Justice Ranasinghe served in office until 1991.

The Constitutional Council convened on Friday afternoon and approved the nomination of Justice Perera which was made by the President.

A past student of S. Thomas’ College Kotte and Guruthalawa, Nalin Perera entered the judicial service in the year 1980. He was appointed as a Magistrate in 1984.

After functioning as the Magistrate of Mt. Lavinia, Walasmulla, Kalutara and Colombo Fort, Justice Perera was appointed as assistant District Judge and a District Judge in 1990.  Justice Nalin Perera was appointed as a High Court judge in 2001 and served in this capacity at Ratnapura, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya. Justice Perera was one of the first judges chosen to serve in the newly established Civil Appellate High Courts in Kandy.

He was appointed as a Judge of the Supreme Court on 3 March 2016.
Speaking at an event earlier in the day, President Maithripala Sirisena noted that Nalin Perera was the only nominee that he submitted to the Constitutional Council and that he was picked due to his seniority and lengthy track record. President Sirisena noted that over the past 30 years his predecessors made appointments to the position of Chief Justice not taking into consideration the seniority of justices.

The President also noted that his decision was also influenced by a number of judges who called on the President to appoint an individual who started from the bottom of the judicial services sector as a mark of respect for their service.

Protest against PM

Four men were arrested under the Terrorism Act while protesting against Prime Minister's visit to Oxford.

According to British Media, the men, aged 28, 34, 50 and 54 were arrested on Monday (8) during Wickremesinghe’s visit to talk at the Oxford Union off St Michael's Street.

They were held on suspicion of being members of and displaying an article of a proscribed organization under Section 11 and 13 of the Terrorism Act 2000.

The Sri Lankan leader joined other speakers at the Union this week including Jo Malone and the former president of Botswana.
Oxford Union wrote online: “Prime Minister Wickremesinghe is one of Sri Lanka’s most decorated politicians.

Thames Valley Police said the arrests were made at 11.16 p.m. on Monday by officers from the force.

They have since been released under investigation and no further information by police can be given whilst the investigation is continuing.
Section 11 explains that a person commits an offence if they belong to a prohibited group.

Section 13 states that an offence is made if a person wears an item of clothing, or carries and displays items that arouse suspicion that they are part of a forbidden organization.

Sri Lanka’s bleak economic outlook

Medium-term debt, deficit and investment scenarios are gloomy

Kumar David-October 13, 2018, 5:22 pm 

There is a tendency, natural perhaps, to read essays on the economy through tinted glasses asking "Which side is he supporting?" Certainly, I do have an axe to grind in future elections, but not in this essay because the bottom line, details aside, is valid whether the government is UNP or SLPP. You can disagree about party politics and still find my story interesting, so read it on its merits. There are four ways in which the economic outlook can be examined in the medium-term; the national debt, crucially dollar-denominated (foreign) debt, second export prospects and trade deficits and balances, third fiscal (budget) issues and finally investment and growth.

A plethora of numbers does not illustrate, it conceals truth in a sea of details. For this reason, I will minimise statistics and when used keep the picture broad. Central Bank stats for the first half of 2018 are available and I have multiplied by two with minor adjustments to give an all-year picture. I have used dollar depictions as I don’t know where the rupee will be in say six months. Year 2018 GDP will be about $92 billion and the annual growth rate about 6.3%; at year end debt will be $72 billion (78% of GDP) of which $33 billion (36% of GDP) will be foreign and domestic debt will be $39 billion (42% of GDP) but in rupees. Nearly a quarter of foreign debt is owed to China. Servicing (interest and repayment), recycling debt and fresh loans will entail borrowing about $2 billion foreign and rupees equivalent to a further $2 billion, on average, in each future year.

The debt-spiral into the abyss

The lethal threat confronting Lanka is indebtedness. Since independence this country can boast that it has never defaulted on its dues, but the Sisyphean task of taking new debt to service existing debt has gone on and on. This is a recipe for sinking further into debt and growth stagnation. My column of September 9 was about governments, businesses and households mired in global debt. The creditor on the other side of the balance-sheet is the so-called 1% (actually about 8.6%) global ultra-rich. I followed this last week (7 October) depicting how this intertwines with the rise of finance-capital to global dominance. This underpins my approach to Rajapaksa populism and its class bases in my September 23 nad 30 columns. Inquiry must be up to date, not regurgitation of discourses of past decades - Siri Gamage’s October 7 lament about my pieces. Still, his intervention though an old hat is useful. It is time to integrate a theory of finance-capital into the analysis. Readings on neo-populism scrutinize evolving class relations in modern, actually existing, capitalism. On both counts it is vital that understanding keeps pace with emergent reality.

It is very difficult, ‘structurally difficult’, for countries and firms to escape the debt spiral; ‘structural’ means the way things are organised and the way things get done. I cannot repeat it all here but the core concept is that in a finance-capital dominated world it is near impossible to escape the tyranny of compound-interest, or avoid taking on new debt to service existing debt, or avoid forced sale of prized national assets, vide Hambantota Port. In the coming years, an unable-to-service-debt Lanka may have to sell off part of the public domain to pare down debt. The Petroleum Corporation, CEB, Colombo Harbour, Port City, a future LNG supply monopoly and above all Mannar Basin if worthwhile deposits are confirmed, are potential targets. Predators for projects on this scale will be international with local firms as front offices.

Lanka’s primary revenue account (that is without capital expenditure and debt servicing) has been pretty much in balance for the last several years. It is debt servicing that is driving the country to the wall. In simple words, if not weighed down by the need to service accumulated debt, Lanka would not need additional borrowing except for capital works. To make it worse repayment (amortisation) is lumpy as tranches fall due at different times. Year 2019 is pretty bad; the government will have to cough up $4.4 billion for debt servicing. No way can it find this from revenue or magically expanded export earnings. It will have to roll over debt. You may recall my two articles detailing the clutches of compound-interest and countries sinking deeper into slavery to global finance-capital. The $ 4.4 billion due in 2019 cannot be met from reserves either, which stand at just $9 billion, without fear of starving in an emergency.

I am glad that the CP’s DEW Gunasekara and the LSSP’s Tissa Vitarana have intervened on economic issues. The challenge is more than domestic, more than the incompetence of yahapalana or the corruption and ignorance of the Rajapaksas. Debt enslavement is global, the well-oiled machinery of global financial-capital lends money that it knows cannot be repaid; the end point is privatisation of the public domain as in Chile, Argentina and Greece. The Greek bailout was on condition 50 billion Euros of public assets be eventually transferred to foreign and domestic creditors. Lanka cannot fight global finance-capital in isolation; it must seek international alliances. And for the Left, a return to Internationalism is a must.

The trade-deficit and exports

Any donkey knows that if a country enjoys a large trade surplus (goods and services) and boasts a surplus in its current account (that is including other inflows and outflows) it can pay down debt and escape purgatory. But not every donkey seems to appreciate that when a crisis is acute it is impossible to achieve a trade surplus in the short term by the magic of "export orientation". Although 10% improvement in exports was achieved in 2017, imports burgeoned by a larger amount. Bear in mind that in 2017 exports were $11 billion while imports were nearly double at $21 billion. The trade deficit will worsen in 2018 because about 30% of the import bill is spent on petroleum, gas, and coal for the CEB. At the time of writing the price of oil has risen to $85 a barrel and is forecast to go up further – in recent years it stayed between $50 and $60. Oil will drag all energy prices up with it

Of course firming the economy with an eye to export orientation is good but that’s a medium if not longer-term perspective. Lanka will be drained by debt before that. The immediate option is to curb luxuries and reduce non-essential imports. Urgent measures, if accompanied by growth will be accepted by the public; restrictions can be eased in a year if the economy improves. To reiterate, the emergency step has to be unpopular and un-UNP import curbs; there is no alternative. But the crux is not imports and exports; it is the absence of an investment and growth strategy.

The budget

Revenue and current account expenditure have been pretty much in balance in recent years at about 13% of GDP (except 2016 when revenue dropped below 2% and 2018 when it may rise to 16% due to higher VAT). Revenue is low because of poor collection, evasion, loopholes, the rich not taxed at adequate rates, and inheritance and capital-gains tax rates too low or inapplicable to many. Revenue targets must be set at 25% of GDP - in European countries it is higher. I do not see this happening here, UNP or SLPP. As important as revenue-expenditure relations are for survival, inadequate revenue adversely affects capital expenditure.

For the last 30 years (after the last Mahaveli project) nothing much has been done except China supported wasteful infrastructure. I have no illusion that Ranil or Rajapaksa will raise revenue as suggested in the previous para or push forward productive industrial and capital projects, but I flag this concern to give readers a perspective. It is a class issue; not only domestic but also global class relations; the IMF/ADB/IBRD and in a way China too factor in.

Investment and growth

For ten years Rajapaksa regimes did nothing to enhance production, only built airports sans airplanes, concert halls sans an audience, needle towers that are useless for signal relaying and cricket stadiums at which even gudu is not played. Senseless billions down the drain. The current yahapalana lot frittered away three years chasing liberal-bourgeois illusions (Ranil-Malik-Chartitha-Eran-Harsha mantra now joined by Mangala) and has nothing to show in economic achievement. Politically it fell flat on its face on February 10, 2018. This shambles was the low-point of the UNP, and decapitation was Sirisena and the SLFP’s end game.

I could jeer "I told you so!" pointing to my three years of writing on an alternative economic strategy; but big shots don’t know of the existence of this humble column. I sketched an alternative to liberal-capitalism; in a word it is state-directed intervention - dirigisme economics - which has proved successful in about half a dozen Asian countries and recently caught India’s eye. The Central Bank Governor recently said: "Current monetary policy is appropriate to address prevailing imbalances in the external sector". Maybe, but the point is not monetary policy, it’s the government’s lack of economic vision. But, more seriously, jeering would be a pyrrhic victory; is Lanka to throw yahapalana out and bring back the tyranny of Rajapaksa? Hobson’s choice!

You know there is a Trump Base in America, unshakeable even were Donald J to take his pants off and dance the jig on Broadway; likewise, there is a Never-again-Rajapaksa (NaR) base here. Its February 10 minimum was the minorities and a third of the Sinhalese; that’s NaR’s rock bottom. The point is that though the economy will not improve in yahapalana’s final year, NaR will not erode further. In stock-market jargon NaR voters have "factored-in" poor economic performance.

DEW and Tissa’s turn to economics, if sustained by a robust campaign and firmed up by concrete proposals, can be useful in two ways. First it could push yahapalana to a few better-late-than-never policy shifts and stir class skirmishes in the UNP. Second and far more important, it could blunt Rajapaksa Populism’s racist narrative. If the left within Rajapaksa’s fold were to confront and check racism internally, of course it would be helpful. One final point and I’m done: Broadly, what are the two left-lumps doing? One is conjoined to Rajapaksa’s buttocks, the other waits patiently for Ranil to pass gas on a new constitution. As for the JVP, it is lost in never-never land. The muddle on the left defies logic. I must stop; it’s bad for my hypertension.