Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Monday, September 17, 2018

War Crimes in Sri Lanka: Stain or slander?


MICHAEL COOKE- 
Editor’s Note: This piece responds to ‘In Defence of the Armed Forces of Sri Lanka’, a report published by the the Global Sri Lanka Forum that appraises a report released by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Investigation on Sri Lanka.
“The international community] wants Sri Lanka’s armed forces to face up to the stain on their reputation, so that they can once again play a constructive role in international peace-keeping operations, and command the full respect that so many of their members deserve.
– Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights[1]
“….. the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights…has said there is a stain on the honour of the armed forces of Sri Lanka. If he said such a thing in my view it is an insult hurled not just at the armed forces but at the country itself. The armed forces are the guardians of the nation, and a stain acquired as a result of guarding the nation is necessarily a stain of the motherland itself.” 
-Darshan Weerasekera[2]

Unmuting The Tabooed: FGM & Muslim Women’s Rights


Meghana Bahar
logoOne of the most important principles of Islam is that you have to speak up for any form of injustice. If you do not, that is considered a sin.
In many countries, laws governing Muslim families stem from verses in the Qur’an, which guarantees gender equality. But the guarantors of justice are not just. Very often, such laws ensure that beneficiaries are, overwhelmingly, Muslim men. Whether it be divorce laws or laws on inheritance, men are generally the faction that Islamic jurists greatly favour, over women and children.
Inequality, in this regard, is a form of injustice.
The Qur’an asserts in many verses[i] that women and men are equal:
“I shall not lose sight of the labour of any of you who labours in My way, be it man or woman; each of you is equal to the other.” (Chapter 3: verse 195);
“The believing men and believing women are allies of one another.” (Chapter 9: verse 71);
This equality is echoed throughout the Qur’an, with ‘men and women’ emphasised multiple times:
“Verily for all men and women who have surrendered themselves unto God, and all believing men and believing women, and all truly devout men and truly devout women, and all men and women who are true to their word, and all men and women who are patient in adversity, and all men and women who humble themselves before God, and all men and women who give in charity, and all self-denying men and self-denying women, and all men and women who are mindful of their chastity, and all men and women who remember God unceasingly: for all of them has God readied forgiveness of sins and a mighty reward.”(Chapter 33: verse 35).
Islam and Feminism 
Islamic feminism is the active engagement of Muslim feminists, be they scholars, activists or artists, in reviving Islam’s egalitarian nature by articulating a feminist middle path, where one does not have to choose between religion and universal human rights, between critiquing the west and being servile to local conservatives—a more holistic framework that also considers the lived realities of Muslim women[ii].
Muslim feminists re-read the Qur’an and interpret it for themselves[iii]. They say women can be religious authorities too. This is a strong gesture of agency and one of self-empowerment. It demonstrates that Muslim women do not need to be saved nor do they need to wait for permission to be the navigators of their own lives. This act of reclamation is not applauded enough. Patriarchs fear this, because they do not want to give up their power. Instead, they offer up the uninformed view that feminism is immoral, and a foreign import. 
But, their fear is baseless, because in fact, there is enough power to go around. It is just that power is concentrated to a privileged few, just as half of the world’s wealth is owned by 0.7% of our planet’s richest people[iv]
Obtaining equal rights for women thus rests on how particular countries interpret Qur’anic verses and transfer them into laws. Islamic law consists of a broad range of legal aspects and is implemented in varying degrees across the world. In Malaysia, Tunisia, Egypt or Morocco, among others, Islamic law has undergone multiple reformations to address contemporary issues facing Muslim communities.
In Sri Lanka, the Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act (MMDA)[v] is currently undergoing a review process, which activists hope will lead to the removal of unjust provisions that violate the rights of women and children. We also want to see changes in how laws are administered by mostly male Quazi courts, who cannot know what it is to be a woman stripped of all her inheritance and made destitute.
Reforms have been delayed for far too long because of the actions of a privileged few, mostly Muslim male politicians, who attempt to derail much needed change for Muslim women and children. Such detractors, who stand in the way of feminist activism, demonstrate qualities that can only be seen as the behaviour of scared children.
In a polarised environment such as this, it is very easy to mount blame and guilt on the Muslim community by saying Islam is oppressive towards women. Such stereotypes do not help foster a harmonious and peaceful society in our multi-ethnic nation, where Muslim communities continue to contribute in colouring that diversity.
One way of not succumbing to this is to learn more about Islam from a variety of authentic sources. In some cases, testimonies by Muslim women would be quite sufficient simply because their stories and voices matter. 

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Fishermen demand action against illegal fishing in Mullaitivu

Fishermen in Mullaitivu today held a demonstration demanding action against ongoing illegal fishing in the area. 
Home17 Sep  2018
Condemning the widespread practice of accepting bribes in exchange for allowing illegal fishing, the fishermen demanded that any corrupt officials face justice. 
The demonstration began in front of the Mullaitivu district secretariat and ended at the Mullaitivu fisheries office. 
A petition was handed to the local government agent, R Ketheeswaran. 
'Do not destroy us accepting bribes' reads placard

Sumanthiran on wise verbal concessions in the art of negotiations


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By S. Ratnajeevan H. Hoole- 

Today, 15 September, 2018, saw one of the few really intellectual activities in Jaffna at Veerasingham Hall: the first C.W. Thamotharampillai Memorial Lecture. CWT was a legendary Tamil literatist of the nineteenth century credited with discovering some of the oldest extant Tamil literature like the Tolkapiyam and other lost Tamil Sangam works. The hall was packed to capacity.

A product of Jaffna’s Batticotta Seminary, CWT was ranked first between the first two graduates of Madras University. He was a judge and Regent of the Kingdom of Puthukkottai, and guardian to Ponnambalam and Coomaraswamy Ramanathan when they studied at Presidency College. Indeed, CWT was one of Jaffna’s finest products in the intellectual sphere.

After Jaffna University History Professor Paramu Pushparatnam’s introduction to who Thamotharampillai was, there was a sort of mock interview of M.A. Sumanthiran, MP, by Provincial Councilor Kesavan Sayanthan. Sayanthan, an upcoming lawyer, asked questions based on common criticism of Sumanthiran and it seemed a healthy way of addressing such criticism.

For example, a question was "Is it true that you will leave the ITAK and join the UNP for the next elections as a nominated member?" Answer: No. Question, "How come you have not even rented a house in Jaffna and are so Colombo Centered?" Answer: "Why would I rent a house in Jaffna when I own one here." Question: "Why do you say that federalism is not required? Why are you taking the party against what the people wanted and voted for?" Denying this was the cue for Sumanthiran’s lecture on "The Extent of Federalism Today."

It was an exciting lecture that showed Sumanthiran’s involvement in Supreme Court cases and their subtleties. He went into the case against the Thirteenth Amendment heard by a full bench of 9, saying 4 judges said it needed to be passed by a referendum and four disagreed. One judge said it needed no referendum provided two key aspects were removed and they were removed to enable enactment without a referendum. He argued that the removal of those clauses ensured that what we have is not federal.

Sumanthiran went on to argue that even the best federal structures in two different countries are never alike and that every country has both, aspects of a federal state and aspects of a unitary state.

He implied that being stuck with words like federal and unitary is counter productive, and we should look at the substance of devolution rather than nomenclature.

Privately, Sumanthiran once told me that these problems of negotiation should be approached judiciously without being hung up on words that can be inflammatory. He gave the example of the brilliance in Article 18 of the Constitution. While 18(1) says Sinhalese shall be the official language of Sri Lanka, Article 18(2) brilliantly goes on to subvert it saying that Tamil shall also be an official language.

If we had been stuck on objecting to 18(1), Tamils could never have been liberated through 18(2). It is an oxymoron like 18(2) that can make Tamils get powers to take decision on those matters that concern our well-being through participatory governance.

Time to Take Root

Sumanthiran is hoping for an oxymoron like 18(2) that, while accepting Sinhalese as THE official language gave us Tamils the freedom to correspond with government in a language we understand. While the police do not respect our Constitution and behave like bullies in the North and East shouting at us in Sinhalese and expecting us to understand them, the good effects of a seemingly contradictory law are increasingly coming to be – 30 years after 1987.

Thirty years after the Thirteenth Amendment and the laws that followed as a consequence, at many official fora today there is translation into Tamil and vice versa. It is expensive but money well spent in making the Tamil-speaking people of Sri Lanka feel they are Sri Lankans.

At the Election Commission, I am able to function because every document is translated into Tamil and placed before me. If not for that, I will not be able to function on the Commission. I feel fully a Sri Lankan and not an illiterate in my own country. The commitment at the Election Commission is so deep that once when to save time I offered to work with a document in English. I was curtly told, "It is against the policy of our Commission not to provide a translation." It has taken 30 years for the Commission to come to its present position as a trail blazer in language-law implementation.

So it will be with other concessions, even if reluctantly ceded today

MP Sumanthiran’s Risk-Taking

Sumanthiran is gambling on further oxymorons on federalism and the foremost status for Buddhism to make minorities fell less oppressed and this country more democratic – two key elements to make Tamils and Muslims feel really Sri Lankan, and for all Sri Lankans to feel equal and be equal. Words do not matter so long as we get what we need.

That attitude to not be stuck on words and to be focused on substance is causing Sumanthiran and like-minded Tamil leaders face electoral risks and the charge that they are promising people one thing and working for the opposite. What Sumanthiran and Elder Statesman R. Sampanthan are doing is bold and being politically honest and straight forward, which we want a lot more of in this country. Immediately after the lecture itself, I heard one person comment that if we compromised, the Sinhalese would take even greater advantage of us. Perhaps so, but I believe that Sumanthiran and his like-minded leader will continue taking the risk and educate the public as he did today. I am sure the public is a lot more intelligent and discerning than we give them credit for.

Heckling

There will always be critics among us and we should not bother so long as they are a minority among us. Today, at the meeting a man seated just behind my family got badly worked up when he saw STF men with machine guns in the hall. I am sure many others also felt bad on seeing the STF. That man got up and started shouting: "We do not need guns here." We all agreed I think but got nervous when the STF men took a special interest in our area of the hall. The man got up and told Sumanthiran not to talk nonsense. When Sumanthiran who spoke in Tamil cited some authorities on federalism in English, and repeated in English some knotty concepts he had first explained in Tamil, the man got even more agitated and said in Tamil, "I do not understand him. He is talking nonsense. Stop him. What is this English in Jaffna!"

We who were around him missed some key parts of the speech, to my regret, on account of the commotion and feeling threatened upon seeing the STF scrutinizing us and other people in our area.

The heckler was ignored and, to his credit, Sumanthiran kept going. That is a good way to handle criticism – ignoring those critics who are hysterical and virulent, including the press that highlights any attempt at peacemaking by those seeking common ground. Good ideas will prevail despite any initial hostility.

So press on Mr. Sumanthiran. Your road is the road to peace and justice.

Understanding the debt trap: Nothing but simple arithmetic


logoMonday, 17 September 2018 

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, speaking recently at the World Economic Forum in Vietnam, denied that Sri Lanka was in danger of spiralling into a debt trap from excessive Chinese borrowings. However, during the past Presidential and General elections he and his team portrayed a picture contrary to that, although it is true that subsequently debt on Hambantota port was swapped with equity.

Writing an article to Daily FT titled “Sri Lanka’s Rupee and Debt Burden now at Critical Stage” a former Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Ajith Nivad Cabraal stated as follows:

“It is now clearly evident there has been a serious deterioration of the Debt Dynamics of Sri Lanka over the past 3½ years. It is also clear that such outcome is primarily due to the present Government’s unsound economic management, reckless borrowing, imposition of unbearable taxes and severe discouragement of investors. Consequently, the Sri Lankan Government’s debt situation has now reached a precarious and dangerous level.”

There are several opinions expressed by many that Sri Lanka is moving towards a debt trap. All these opinions were derived from the last Presidential and General election platforms. If one wants to find out the reality, one only has to go through the statistics provided by the Central Bank. It is nothing but simple arithmetic.

In the Table, I have reproduced data given in the Annual Report 2017 of Central Bank of Sri Lanka. From the year 1990, year by year the manner in which the Government debt has been increased can be viewed by going through the Table. In addition, the root cause of the problem was also given: The deficit budgeting of the successive Governments. When a Government spends more than what it earns, the difference will be borrowed. This can be either foreign or domestic borrowings. During the period 1991 to 2005, proceeds from the privatisation of the Government institutions were also used to bridge the gap.

The best way of easing the problem is to reduce the deficit. Another way of easing the problem is to have a high growth rate of the economy, so that the economy has the capacity to pay. In Table, Gross Domestic Production (GDP) of the country, budget deficit and the debt as a percentage of GDP is given. It is interesting to note that in the year 2002 debt was 105.6% of the GDP. To the credit of Cabraal and the team, it is evident from the Table that during their period the debt to GDP percentage has gone down due to the increase of GDP. This is commendable. It should also be noted that the interest payments we make on debts is around 5% of GDP. From the Table it is evident that his statement that the situation has now reached a precarious and dangerous level is not true. It is just a political statement.
There is a difference between the budget deficit which is financed by debt and the increase of the debt each year. The major factor contributing to this difference is the depreciation of the rupee. When the rupee depreciates, as Cabraal points out, the Government will have to pay more rupees to settle the foreign currency borrowings. That is why he requests not to increase foreign borrowings. But why does Cabraal and the others who are concerned about high debt, not tell the successive Governments to reduce the budget deficit? To my knowledge only the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said so.
To reduce the budget deficit, either the expenditure should be reduced, or revenue should be increased. The Government has taken an initiative to increase the revenue by introducing the new Inland Revenue Act amid severe criticism from the Private Sector. Out of the tax revenue In Sri Lanka 20% comes from the direct taxes and 80% comes from the indirect taxes. In India the relevant percentages are 56% and 44%. In Singapore the figures are 64% and 36%. The rich in this country, who are in the Private Sector, and the professionals are reluctant to pay taxes.

As a result, the Government is funded by the paupers who pay VAT on the products they consume. I do not think that the budget deficit will be reduced in the budget of this year since next year would be an election year. General Public will be bribed at their own expense.


During the period of the previous regime, the rupee was kept stable. One advantage of this was that the country was able to control the imported inflation. However, by adopting an artificial methodology to keep the exchange rate stable there was a severe impact of the exports of the country. Exports of a country cannot be solely managed by the exchange rate since it is only one factor promoting the exports. Exporters of this country cannot simply increase their prices, because their prices are dependent on the prices quoted by the competitors.

In the point of view of the exporters, if the domestic prices including the interest rates increase, one way to mitigate that is the depreciation of the rupee. If the domestic currencies of the countries of the competitors depreciate at a rate more than the Sri Lankan rupee, our exporters would be in a disadvantageous position. During the previous regime, the 2006-2014 depreciation of the rupee was very low. In two instances they could not manage it and the rupee depreciated very rapidly, which was not good for the economy.

In the first instance Rupee depreciated by 5% within three months from September 2006 to December 2006. The second instance was in 2012, from January to March, where the rupee was depreciated by 12%. This policy contributed to the decline of exports during the previous regime. Export of Goods and Services as a percentage of GDP was decreased from 30.13% in 2004 to 21.09% in 2014.

A country cannot have a policy on depreciation of the rupee just to keep the value of the foreign debt intact. If it does, it is a policy of an accountant to manage the Balance Sheet rather than a policy of an economist to manage the economy.

Japan is the third largest economy of the world behind USA and China. However, Japan has the highest debt as a percentage of GDP, 253%. Second in rank is Greece, which has a debt of 178%. Rank of Sri Lanka is 31. Greece had a GDP per capita of $ 17,890 in 2016. Relevant figures in Japan was $ 38,972, and in Sri Lanka it was $ 3,835. Greece is a developed country which was not able to pay its debts. To overcome this situation, the IMF and the European Union helped Greece.

The public debt and budget deficit of Greece is given Charts 1 and 2. At one point budget deficit of Greece reached the point of 15%. In recent times, under pressure from different parties, Greece managed to reduce the budget deficit. Greece also shows a trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports in the National Accounts. The trade deficit of Greece is given in Chart 3. Greece is a county where Government spends more than its income and imports more than its exports. As a result, it tends to borrow more and more. Recently it has come to a relatively stable stage.

The public debt, budget deficit and trade deficit of Japan is given in charts 4, 5 and 6 respectively. The difference between Greece and Japan is that Japan has shown a long-term trade surplus. In addition, Japan shows a surplus in Balance of Payments, which includes trade surplus and other remittances of interest and investment income. Interest rates in Japan are very low, leading to Japanese entrepreneurs investing in government bonds using the income received from foreign countries. As a result, the majority of Japan’s debt is domestic debt rather than foreign debt. Therefore, the situation of Japan is not critical as the situation of Greece.


The trade deficit of Sri Lanka is given in Chart 7. It shows that Sri Lanka is going through the path taken by Greece and not Japan. Sri Lanka should increase its exports at this juncture. Exports was prominently focused in the time of N.M. Perera, the only Finance Minister who had a doctorate in economics. At the time of introduction of the free economy in 1977, the country could not have any control over the process. Hence there was a tendency of the Private Sector to concentrate on trade rather than on manufacturing and export. This tendency came to the zenith during the last regime.

Exports cannot be promoted by just conducting seminars. The Private Sector, the Public Sector and the Politicians should up their sleeves and get on to the job. We have an opportunistic Private Sector, lethargic Public Sector, a cunning set of politicians and idiotic General Public. Corruption is present in all the sectors. Fortunately, we have great exceptions in all four sectors mentioned.

Debt, whether by the Government or otherwise, is a not a bad thing provided that the borrower has the capacity to pay the capital in instalments and pay the interest regularly. Debt trap is what happened to Greece and what happened to Sri Lanka as far as the presently unproductive Hambantota port is concerned. Sri Lanka, as a country, can be moved away from a debt trap provided we take corrective measures as discussed.

Indian Immigrants In Parramatta, Sydney: Identity & Community In Action

Dr. Siri Gamage
logoAs it was a warm day in spring, on Saturday my wife and I were walking along the Parramatta River, Sydney in the evening. Suddenly we came across a large gathering of Indian immigrants celebrating a national holy day i.e. Ganesh Puja. Majority of them are newly arrived young immigrants accompanied by their parents and small children. Most of them are professionals such as IT workers. On both sides of the river there are apartments that they rent. The gathered crowd had come well dressed in their sarees, and a line of people was moving towards a Hindu priest to obtain blessings. Closely on stage were a few young girls enacting a dance to the tune of music. Makeshift stalls had Indian food for sale. Obviously, the atmosphere was electric. The lights were on, loud music being played and passers by were treated to a glimpse of Indian culture and community on the riverbank
Such events are not uncommon in cities such as Sydney, which has been undergoing a significant transformation as a result of Australia’s recent immigration policy. Along with the growth of population due to immigration, measures have been taken by the private sector developers to build more apartments for renting. On an average weekday, one can observe Indian immigrants leaving for work in the morning and returning in the evening around 6.00pm after a train ride from the city CBD and other locations. Their parents look after the children during the day. Elderly parents go for a walk along the river to break the routine and get fresh air. Some go to the play ground with grand children and children. A few gather together with others who have come from India, Pakistan etc.for a yarn during warmer months. Women who are not employed take their children (and neighbour’s children as a favour) to the primary school in the morning and bring them back in the afternoon.
One could see Indian workers in places like Dubai, Singapore also. The difference here in Australia is that they are able to obtain permanent residence after completing their temporary residence period. Some in fact come as permanent residents in the first place. A migration industry has sprung up in India and elsewhere to assist prospective immigrants for a fee. Often success is not guaranteed. Once the immigrants become permanent residents, the process of acquiring Australian identity begins. It is a long process for many but a few move on the fast lane. For all intents and purposes, these are Indian people. Nonetheless they have to work in a multicultural environment in the cities resembling a melting pot. They also have to deal with a range of government departments during their time here in relation to tax, medical, transport, education or professional and other matters. In these circumstances these new immigrants come across other Australians including those with British, European, American, African, Asian backgrounds. However, looking at the Indian community living around Parramatta, it seems that they are primarily depending on each other for support at least at this stage. Some of the Indians are serving as counsellors in the city council.
mall children who come back from school in the afternoon chat among themselves in English –not in Hindi or any other regional language. They seem to be trying to sort out life here and newfound freedoms in their own way through such conversations. Mothers help the children by carrying the school bags. In time to come, most of these children will lose their Indian language skills while acquiring English language, as the latter is the language of business and education in Australia. Along with this process, they will acquire features of Australian identity defined by the society without any doubt. 
A major component of this identity is the range of rights one possess and the respect each and every one of them command by virtue of being an Australian. This includes the respect one receives from law enforcement agencies and government service providers while returning the favour by obeying laws and norms of behaviour in public places. However, a significant number of these young immigrants and their children will be employed in the corporate sector –the engine of globalised workplace. Their soft skills in information technology will be of a high quality as are the skills in handling managerial, professional and technical duties in the work place.
However, at least for the recently arrived immigrant Indians, juggling the two worlds between Australia and India will not be an easy task. Their parents have to leave after six months or a year as they are on temporary visas. Sooner or later these immigrants have to buy an apartment or a small house with a heavy bank loan for a 30-year term for which they will pay a mortgage each month. Life will be subjected to pressures from work and utility companies charging monthly or quarterly for electricity, water and gas bills etc. Local Councils will charge fees for garbage collection and other services. On the top of these, there will be insurance premiums for cars, home and contents, health and any international travel. Children going to private schools will incur further expenses. If there is any money left, they may be able to visit home in India at the end of the year to see the family and friends and catch up. Such trips incur more expenses by way of gifts for the extended family.

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SL’s Indian Ocean Diplomacy amidst shifting power alignments

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Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe addresses at the Inaugural Session of the Indian Ocean Conference 2018 in Hanoi, Vietnam
2018-09-17
The Indian Ocean has been the focus of frequent and intense diplomatic activity in the past few years. These interactions have had a regional character, while the involvement of external players in the discussions has also been notable. These developments, while they highlight the centrality of the Indian Ocean to big power competition in an evolving multi-polar world, at the same time demand critical appraisal. Smaller players like Sri Lanka especially need to be mindful of who’s setting the agenda at these deliberations, and alert to the ever-shifting power equations between and among the big players.   
"US foreign policy particularly under the Trump administration is rooted in the idea of US ‘exceptionalism’ – which it uses to bully the rest of the world into compliance with its wishes, using the threat of sanctions"
With its pivotal geographical location in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka has naturally been an active participant in these forums. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has addressed three Indian Ocean Conferences (IOCs) – in Singapore (2016), Sri Lanka (2017) and Vietnam (2018) and this month participated in a panel discussion of the World Economic Forum on ASEAN, again in Vietnam, where he spoke on ‘Asia’s geopolitical outlook.’   
The Prime Minister in his speeches at the three IOCs has, to his credit, adopted a somewhat independent stance rather than uncritically ‘toeing the line’ of any big power. Although he supports ‘freedom of navigation and overflight’ – which is the rallying call of the US, endorsed by its allies in the face of ever-growing Chinese maritime influence - Wickremesinghe has consistently made a case for the littoral states to play a more assertive role in setting the rules. “The littorals, by geographic design, are integral partners in this process” he said at the conference on ‘Building regional architectures’ in Ha Noi last month.  
Another consistent thread in his presentations has been his questioning of the concept of ‘Indo-Pacific,’ a US creation. He asserts that the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean are distinct entities. India too has been careful in its use of terminology in this respect.   
At the inaugural IOC in Singapore (2016), PM Wickremesinghe called for “an inclusive, multilateral strategic security order” warning that there will be “resistance to any country unilaterally trying to shape the strategic order of the region.” He further said “This order should be built on a consensual agreement and no singular state should dominate the system.”   
"The US has been strengthening naval ties with strategically located states, encouraging its allies to do likewise (joint exercises of the ‘Quad’ for example), renaming the Pacific Command as ‘Indo Pacific Command,’ etc.,"
The question for analysts would be how the PM proposes to reconcile the laudable goal of a democratic, consensus-based order, with the hegemonic stance adopted by the world’s superpower. US foreign policy particularly under the Trump administration is rooted in the idea of US ‘exceptionalism’ – which it uses to bully the rest of the world into compliance with its wishes, using the threat of sanctions. This belligerent approach is most apparent in its policies towards Russia and China. In a statement last month to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the subject of ‘US strategy towards the Russian Federation,’ Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Wess Mitchell is reported as saying:   
“Russia and China are serious competitors that are building up the material and ideological wherewithal to contest U.S. primacy and leadership in the 21st Century. It continues to be among the foremost national security interests of the United States to prevent the domination of the Eurasian landmass by hostile powers.”
Last year, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in a speech in Washington named China as the cause for the US’s intensified interest in the Indian Ocean, and as the reason for its deepening defence ties with India.  
‘Joining’ the Indian and Pacific Oceans at the conceptual level by using ‘Indo-Pacific’ terminology is but one of the devices serving US strategic interests in the IOR. The US has been strengthening naval ties with strategically located states, encouraging its allies to do likewise (joint exercises of the ‘Quad’ for example), renaming the Pacific Command as ‘Indo Pacific Command,’ etc., etc. But the littorals of the Indian Ocean would not want to be bullied by the US any more than the littorals of the South China Sea resent being bullied by China.  
"At the inaugural IOC in Singapore (2016), PM Wickremesinghe called for “an inclusive, multilateral strategic security order” warning that there will be “resistance to any country unilaterally trying to shape the strategic order of the region"
India-US strategic ties got a boost recently when the inaugural round of talks among their respective ministers of defence and foreign affairs (dubbed ‘2 + 2 talks’) culminated with a defence agreement in Delhi, hailed as a breakthrough by both parties. The COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) signed after years of negotiation on Sept. 6 would align India’s military communications systems with those of the US and facilitate ‘interoperability’ between their forces, according to reports. It is the second of three ‘foundational agreements’ the US expects to conclude with India, designated a ‘major defence partner’ of the US.
What is interesting is that the agreement was signed in spite of India having gone ahead with its deal with Russia to purchase S-400 missiles, according to reports, in defiance of US sanctions under a recent US law designed to punish third parties having dealings with its adversaries. Under the ‘Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act’ (CAATSA) as it is called, the US would impose penalties on countries buying oil from Iran or having military transactions with Russia. This refusal to submit to US pressure has been praised by Indian analysts, who feared India’s foreign policy was tilting too much towards the US. The US would now have to find ways of granting India a waiver of sanctions, it would seem.  
"The littorals of the Indian Ocean would not want to be bullied by the US any more than the littorals of the South China Sea resent being bullied by China"
“.. the CAATSA provides an underpinning for the US’ global hegemony, which is far beyond its stated purpose of sanctioning Russia over the Crimea” wrote Melkulangara Bhadrakumar, commenting on the COMCASA on ‘Strategic Culture Foundation’ website. “Simply put, without India realizing it, a point will be reached when it gets “locked in” and becomes an ally of the US, playing second fiddle to Washington in its Indo-Pacific strategies” he warned.   
Indian Analysts have also noted that PM Modi’s policy towards China has become more nuanced, particularly since his informal and cordial April summit with China’s President Xi Jinping in Wuhan. Senior Analyst at the IDSA (Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis) P. Stobdan referring to Modi’s keynote speech at the Shangri La dialogue in June noted that his remarks “seemed a calibrated move to prevent India falling into a dangerous geopolitical trap vis-à-vis US, Russia and China.” He said the speech was ‘welcomed by everyone including China.”
"Indian Analysts have also noted that PM Modi’s policy towards China has become more nuanced, particularly since his informal and cordial April summit with China’s President Xi Jinping in Wuhan"
In Ha Noi last week, responding to a question from Indian defence analyst Nitin Gokhale on the ‘new Indo-Pacific structure,’ PM Wickremesinghe reportedly said “We are Asian so we have a common identity, but I think the distinct nature of the Indian Ocean and the geo-politics of this ocean must function as it is and you can’t use the Pacific issues to cover the Indian Ocean issues. But together we can all work for a stable order and to ensure freedom of navigation.” It remains to be seen whether his optimism was warranted. 

It is pre-poll time, and ‘competitive Tamil nationalism’ too is back in business


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BY N Sathiya Moorthy- 

No one should be overly surprised, even less shocked that the TNA-controlled Northern Provincial Council (NPC) has a passed a unanimous resolution, "calling upon the UNHRC to Refer Sri Lanka to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and calling for UN-monitored referendum for the political preference of the Tamil-speaking people" in the country. What should however be surprising is the readiness with which the NPC Leader of the Opposition, S Thavarajah and Muslim member, Ayoop Asmin, backed the controversial resolution, moved by TNA’s even more controversial M K Sivajilingam.

It is not surprising that the TNA, or to be precise the faction led by Chief Minister C V Wigneswaran, and identified with pro-separatist Sri Lankan Tamil groups overseas, sought out such a resolution. With the possibility of near-immediate dissolution of the House at the end of its maiden five-year term on cards, followed possibly by fresh elections, possibly as early as January 2019, they ought to behave the way they have done, since.

The Wigneswaran administration has nothing much to show off on the administrative or development fronts. If there is one political administration in these parts of the world, and not just in the country, that has failed miserably on the administrative front, it is this! When other provincial administrations in the country and those similarly-placed in neighbourhood nations would be demanding a greater share from the ‘national kitty’, here is one Chief Minister who has excelled in returning back funds, as ‘unutilised’ or ‘under-utilised’.

In the normal course, no amount of Team Wigneswaran passing on the buck to the Centre, and arguing the case for more powers and further power-devolution would wash even with his own ‘Tamil nationalist’ constituency. Hence, this repeated Tamil extremist strategy of mounting the hard-line hobby-horse, with the hope that the idea is still sustainable and still has a larger audience than hoped for/anticipated.

Constitutional silence

It is first for the TNA’s ‘national leadership’ to clarify its position in the matter. It is even more for the Government of SLFP President Maithripala Sirisena and UNP Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to address the issue of a constituent unit of the larger constitutional scheme passing such resolutions – of which there have already been many. The Constitution just now may not provide for such exigencies, and the Tamil leaders are not unaware of it.

This in turn has led to a quaint situation in which the hard-liner opposition to the TNA leadership charging the latter with yielding ground to the ‘majoritarian Sinhala views’ on the proposed Constitution, which is nowhere in sight. For all the tall talks, claims and declarations of the ruling duo and the official TNA leadership, especially at the parliamentary level, nothing has moved on that score.

Despite the existing ‘constitutional silence’ or the ‘silence of the Constitution’ in the matter, the TNA leadership is on record that they are not averse to including ‘safety valves’ that empower the Centre to act under such circumstances more decisively than at present. They too want more powers for the Tamils, especially the Provincial Councils, but then they are ready to empower the Centre to initiate constitutional action under the proposed statute that such a right/freedom did not become a ‘licence’ for misuse and abuse of a separatist/ secessionist nature.

Free run of NPC

The irony is striking even more if one were to consider the recent recommendation of the Attorney-General’s Office to proceed against sacked Central Minister, Vijayakala Maheshwaran, for making pro-LTTE statements at an official function in native Jaffna only weeks earlier. The UNP leadership of Prime Minister, acting with circumspection that was as much political as it was ‘nationalist’, asked her to quit the Government and face criminal action, if the AG deemed fit. In comparison, the Government at the Centre is helpless and hapless – or, so it pretends – in taming the Tamil hard-liners, who have had a free fun of the NPC for full five years.

‘Nationalist’, the UNP action was because at the end of the day, what Vijayakala said at the public rally was unacceptable for an average Sri Lanka, including many Tamils. By equating women’s safety in the North to the forced LTTE ‘regime’ of the war-time past, she specifically claimed that people would welcome the LTTE back. Obviously, she was not speaking for women’s safety, but was mainly addressing the Tamil hard-liner sentiments, ahead of the anticipated PC polls, to be followed by the presidential and parliamentary polls, though a year later. Candidate Vijayakala was speaking on the occasion, not a responsible Minister of the Union.

The referendum-cum-ICC resolution and dozens of others of the kind passed through the past four-plus years apart, the NPC is reported to have decided on examining ‘Sinhala settlements’ in four districts of the Province. The NPC has resolved by end-August, to appoint an experts’ committee for the purpose, though with only the idea of maintaining an ‘official list of settled persons’.

Well-intentioned as it may sound, in times of ethnic crisis, as had happened over the war and pre-war decades, it is a wrong sword in wrong hands, if one were to go by the experience of the Tamils in Sinhala areas, including capital Colombo. Be it post-Pogrom-83 or more recently on New Year Eve-2006, ‘Sinhala hard-liner goons’ and/or the police had used the voters’ list to identify Tamils even in cosmopolitan Colombo localities, to target them physically and otherwise.

Tamil militants

The Tamil militants in general, and the long-ruling LTTE in particular had used similar tactics to get rid of Sinhala students and bakers and other citizens from the North is again a recorded incident from the past. The LTTE used it all to greater and more crude and cruel effect when they got the Muslims of Jaffna and elsewhere in the North, to vacate their residences and occupations of generations and centuries, just at 24-hour notice, with only a few hundred rupees to take with them.

On both occasions, and for both hard-liner ethnic groups, the scheme worked. There is nothing to suggest that it would not work again, be it against ‘minority’ Tamils in Sinhala-majority areas of the country, or against the Sinhala locals, who are in a minority in ‘Tamil majority areas’ of the North and the East. As experience has shown, in both cases, when even the armed forces were tasked with additional responsibilities alongside the police, they all either arrived too late or participated in the mayhem.

Drumming up support

It is one thing for political parties, both within respective ethnicities and cross-ethnicity, play competitive politics of whatever kind, with electoral gains in mind. Today, however, in the case of the NPC resolutions of the referendum-ICC kind, there is a need also for the Sinhala majors of the UNP, SLFP kind in Government and the SLPP-JO in the Opposition, do not drum up anti-Tamil sentiments in their favourite Sinhala constituencies.

There is however the added/additional danger of the Sinhala majors in Government, more than the Rajapaksas-centric SLPP-JO, to play down resolutions and initiatives of the kind, hoping for the ‘Tamil votes’ of the 2015 kind, which alone made incumbent President Mahinda R’s defeat and their own consequent victory, possible. Mahinda too did woo the Tamils, but they did not fall for his ‘development card’. There is nothing for him to hope now that they have changed, and in his favour.

This time, again, the SLFP and the UNP in particular, anticipating to be pitted against each other and also against the SLPP-JO in the presidential polls, whenever held, are playing into the ‘Tamil hands’, without drawing out the inherent distinctions that are due to the minority ethnicity in the country. In such a game of silent concurrence, whoever wins or loses, Sri Lanka as a nation would have lost out, all over again. Instead, there is a need for saner and transparent leaderships that are frank to the point of being brutal and also do enough to carry the minorities with them as a community, not just as an electoral constituency.

Instead, if the Tamils have changed, or are being sought to be changed, it is to motivate them against the Sri Lankan nation and the Sri Lankan State, all over again. The moderate TNA leadership, like their predecessor TULF counterpart of the pre-war era, cannot sit by the side, watch it all unfold, and then blame the rest of them all, starting with the Sri Lankan State, the Sinhala polity and maybe the Tamil hard-liners, too, the latter rather weakly and meekly, and then expect the rest of the world to stand by their side, all over again.

Unlike in the past, the international community is very much engaged with Sri Lankan affairs now. If it suits them in the global context, the international community may end up taking up the UNHRC resolution, war-crimes probe and the like. If it suits them otherwise, they may pounce upon the Tamils this time round, for being unreasonable and ‘anti-nationalist’. The choice is for the Tamils and all Sri Lankans to make. The international community, or sections thereof, may have something esoteric to win, but nothing substantial to lose, either way!

(The writer is Director, Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation, the multi-disciplinary Indian public-policy think-tank, headquartered in New Delhi. email: sathiyam54@gmail.com)