Rajapaksas’ Presidential hopeful is Gota
By Rasika Hemamali-2018-02-16Head of the Department of History at the University of Colombo Dr. Nirmal Ranjith Dewasiri says that Gotabaya Rajapaksa will be the next Presidential candidate as Mahinda Rajapaksa cannot, technically, contest the election, and Chamal is only a regional leader and Basil has several critics while Namal is not ready, yet.
Excerpts:
How do you read the Local Government election results?
A: The pattern of the election result is similar to what I expected. Prior to the release of results, after the polling ended; I posted my estimation on Facebook. However, I did not mention it during the period of the election, as I worked for the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna. My estimation was that the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna would gain 40 per cent; the United National Party 35 per cent and Maithripala Sirisena 10 per cent and the JVP would get 7 per cent. There are minor differences; however, when you consider the composition my estimation is not that different from the actual result. But, the surveys that were carried out portrayed the reverse. Apart from that, observations of those in the Mahinda faction too, were completely upside down.
What was the basis on which you did this estimation?
A: I presented my estimation, based on the general political trend. There are two ways in which you can view politics: short-term fluctuation is one; for example, the Treasury Bond incident and the incident of Brigadier Priyanka Fernando in London are short-term factors that have an impact on voter behaviour. The other one is the long-term trend. Voter behaviour can basically be understood by long-term trends. The most important trend was the collapse of the voter base of the UNP. It was in 1982 that the UNP reached its peak, since then it has been a systematic fall. As I said previously, there were occasions when there was a flux, and then they came into power thrice. However, the trend of drop in votes continued. Even short-term factors had a disadvantageous impact on them. The Treasury Bond incident, internal clashes within the Government, all of those had an impact.
What do you say about the performance of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna at the election?
A: The situation of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, too, is very clear. We saw, on 8 January 2015, as soon as they were defeated that they would raise their heads again, in a short time. The main reason for their recovery is basically the Sinhalese Buddhist faction. The voter attraction for them among the non-Sinhala Buddhists is very much less. It is one block. These voters, during the past one and a half decades have shown quite a similar behaviour. During the 2005 Presidential Election, Mahinda won by a very small percentage. If the LTTE had not boycotted the elections it is possible that he may have been defeated. Even on that occasion, the percentage of the Sinhala Buddhist community votes, that he received were much higher than the percentages in other areas. There was some reduction at the Southern Provincial Council election. That was a very minor decrease. At the Presidential Election, it dropped drastically. Even at this election there is more of a decrease. That is what I call a satellite reduction. In relation to the collapse of the UNP, it is not a decrease even to be considered.
What happened to the Sri Lanka Freedom Party?
A: If you consider Maithripala Sirisena his voter base existed on three factors. Those were, mainly because he had State power and the official ownership of the SLFP, also there is the first and second level of the SLFP leadership around him. For these people, the behaviour of voters is one; the political leaders at regional level can control the behaviour of voters in these areas, through the political networks that exist. Maithripala Sirisena received those of that group. There was a large number of floating votes among those who voted for him at the 8 January 2015 election. Most of the voters in Sri Lanka are floating voters (not party affiliated) Most of the group of 6.2 million who voted against Mahinda Rajapaksa are those voters. It can be said that there was a trend of those who were disgusted with the UNP, those who were unwilling to go to Mahinda Rajapaksa's side and a group who was not yet ready to vote for the JVP.
Can you say that the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna has progressed?
A: When considering the long-term trend of the JVP, generally, it was at the Pradeshiya Sabha elections in 2006 that they received the highest voter percentage. At the 2002 General Election, they obtained nine percent. After they joined the SLFP in 2004 they obtained a very high percentage. At that time, they were of a nationalist view and were close to the Rajapaksa Plan too.
However, it is apparent, after that, how the JVP votes dropped rapidly. Generally, it was less than 5 per cent; it once dropped to about 2 per cent. This time it is close to 7 per cent; in my opinion, it is a considerable improvement. Such an alternative party cannot reach high percentages.
There is a factor, which a majority of Sri Lankan voters consider, when casting their vote, which has an impact, which is the ability of the Party to obtain State power. The trend, of voting for a party, which has a very slim chance of obtaining State power, is less. Within those circumstances 7 per cent is quite high.
With the Rajapaksa victory, will JVP victories become still more remote?
A: There is a possibility that it will improve to some extent. This is my opinion in favour of the Party; as I am also working towards it. There is a possibility for that, too, and due to a distinctive feature of this election.
When looking at politics in the South we can clearly see that there are only two forces with a permanent number of votes which can improve to a certain extent. They are the SLPP and the JVP.
President Maithripala Sirisena's voter base is not permanent. It will be completely determined by whether Mahinda Rajapaksa establishes a Government, now; then everyone will join Mahinda Rajapaksa, if that happens. Let us imagine that there was a Presidential Election or a General Election. If that happens, then it will be either to support Mahinda Rajapaksa or Gotabhaya Rajapaksa who will contest from that side. That is extremely clear.
There are reasons for the long-term collapse of the UNP. The other factor is the serious leadership crisis. At this time, that crisis is affecting the Party more than ever before.
The Rajapaksa camp represents a certain political viewpoint, a certain political attitude – Sinhala Buddhist nationalist attitude.
There are others with different political philosophies and ideologies in Sri Lanka. They cannot get everyone. Let us say they obtain a maximum of 60 per cent from the Sinhala Buddhist voter base, they cannot go beyond that. A Party that attracts the balance group is needed; now there is room for such a party to emerge. The JVP is the main group that can fill that void. If you set aside the fact of the JVP coming to power in 2020, there is room for this void to be filled.
I am proposing three slogans for the JVP.
Social Justice, it could happen soon, there is a great possibility of the Mahinda Rajapaksa faction coming to power, and they are going to do a lot of large scale constructions such as construction of expressways. Those will not provide an opportunity to address Social Justice. That problem will arise later in the future.
The second is the problem of Democracy. Under a Rajapaksa administration that problem too will definitely arise.
The third is co-existence among ethnicities and religions. That too is due to arise under a Rajapaksa administration.
A party that can address these three divisions is required.
You have said on certain occasions that Gotabhaya Rajapaksa will be the next leader of the SLPP?
A: What I am saying is that it is he who will come forward. Technically, Mahinda Rajapaksa cannot contest the next Presidential Election as the Constitution was changed. A charismatic person has to come forward for that post. We cannot think of anyone outside of the Rajapaksa family for that. Chamal Rajapaksa is only a regional leader. Many people criticize Basil Rajapaksa.
Therefore, it cannot be him. Namal Rajapaksa cannot contest as yet. Only Gotabhaya Rajapaksa is left. It is he who has the ability to win.
Sometime ago, I had a doubt whether he would be able to win as they had only a Sinhala-Buddhist voter base. As I see it now, it will be possible. Now they have a permanent voter base. The problem is to obtain the remaining. It can be obtained with ease. The rest of the SLFP too will join them. An Alliance can easily be set up with someone like Douglas Devananda. Ten per cent of Tamil Votes can be obtained through that. That would be more than enough. They can also collect votes from people such as Rishard Bathiudeen and Thondaman. If they can see victory they will join. Therefore victory is possible.
Can we expect a different behaviour from the Rajapaksas, to that which existed prior to 2015, on securing Government power?
A: That is their challenge. A factor that will not induce them to change is, that they know that, whatever they do, they will receive votes from the Sinhala-Buddhists. On Facebook, a young man had stated that they do not vote looking at the thefts or the murders; even if they steal or murder the vote is for the country to be protected. When there is such a mentality there will not be much motivation for them to change. Then there is a question, why should we change!
If a Rajapaksa type of administration is to be maintained, suppression too is required. Governance in the North is extremely vital.
The North cannot be allowed to do as they please. Rajapaksa coming to power means that there will be a big clash with the North.
If that clash grows, it will mean that they will be forced to suppress the North. At present, the people of the North have political freedom.
The Rajapaksas will not be able to allow that to continue, even as of now, the people of the North criticize Mahinda Rajapaksa, so they will most definitely have to do that.









