Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Saturday, February 10, 2018

Why scientists should boycott Israel

The destroyed science laboratories at the Islamic University of Gaza in September 2010, nearly two years after it was bombed by Israel during its 22-day assault in winter 2008-2009. Reconstruction of the facility was hampered by Israel’s severe restrictions on imports of building materials into Gaza. The university would be bombed again in subsequent Israeli attacks.
 Mohammed AsadAPA images
The International Meeting for Science in Palestine, organized recently in Cambridge, United Kingdom, by Scientists for Palestine, was dedicated to exposing the reality in Palestine when it comes to higher education and research, as well as stepping up efforts to help develop science in Palestine.
The meeting was quite effective in disproving the idea that we can talk about science (or anything) in Palestine without mentioning the occupation.
The testimonies from Palestinian participants, both in person and remotely, painted a clear picture of the impact of the occupation on education and scientific research. From checkpoints stifling movement, to student dormitory raids, to arbitrary university closures, it is clear that the occupation is the main obstacle to the development of science in Palestinian institutions.
The situation is even worse in the besieged Gaza Strip, where there are only a few hours of electricity per day and it is near impossible to import anything, let alone equipment for scientific research.
Students from Gaza also told tales of their agony waiting for months for an opening of the Rafah crossing in order to pursue education opportunities abroad, or of losing those opportunities altogether.
Inevitably, one of the issues discussed in this meeting was the academic boycott of Israel and the (non)neutrality of science.
Scientists for Palestine has not taken an official position on the academic boycott. It is likely that, due to the recent crackdown of the Israeli government on individuals affiliated to any groups supporting the boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) campaign for Palestinian rights, a public position on the matter could undermine efforts to organize activities in Palestine.
(Note: the case for a boycott and the arguments surrounding it are brilliantly explained here.)

Rejecting normalization

The scientific community, particularly in the hard sciences, prides itself on not taking any shortcuts in the quest to uncover the deepest mysteries of the universe.
Ask any theoretical physicist about pion decay and they will gladly explain how a quantum anomaly is what enables the main decay process into two photons.
But ask them about Palestine and chances are you will hear that the issue is “too complicated,” and possibly some orientalist trope about Arabs, Islam or both.
But even those who are informed beyond the mainstream narrative may be reluctant to take a position or endorse the boycott. The world of scientific research is one of ruthless competition and exploitation, especially at the lower levels, and very few are willing to jeopardize their careers and funding opportunities by taking a stand on Palestine. The example needs to come at an institutional level or from those with job security.
We are told that the scientific community, instead of promoting boycotts, should be building bridges and the rest will follow.
But this assumes that decades of settler-colonial occupation, ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses can be boiled down to an issue of different peoples not talking to each other. Of course, what is being built are not bridges, but little bubbles where everything seems harmonious as long as you don’t look outside the bubble.
The key word here is normalization. Israel’s current existence as a settler-colonial, apartheid state to which international law is not being applied, relies heavily on its projection of itself as a modern, hi-tech, Western-style liberal democracy.
Prestigious conferences and joint scientific ventures, either in the name of advancing science or building bridges, all contribute to cementing this narrative.
Boycotts can be extremely effective, and the panicked Israeli reaction to the BDS movement is a testament to that.
A boycott campaign upsets the very foundations of the polished image Israel wants to project and forces peoplewho would otherwise not be so inclined to look behind the curtain and uncover the grisly reality of ethnic cleansing, regular bombings and endless human rights violations.

New and improved apartheid

It’s not that long since the academic boycott against apartheid South Africa (which ran alongside cultural and sporting boycotts).
The United Nations even passed resolutions supporting it. I have no doubt that many people who today question or oppose an academic boycott of Israel would have happily embraced the boycott of South Africa.
Yet the Israeli version of apartheid is not in the least put in the shade by its South African predecessor.
Israel enjoys the unconditional support of the world’s leading superpower – which eventually dropped even its support of South Africa – and a potent lobby that reaches congresses, parliaments and editorial boards alike.
It would have been absurd to suggest that what was needed in South Africa was scientific collaboration involving apartheid and bantustan institutions. Replace South Africa with Israel and the bantustans – the nominally independent Black-ruled “homelands” set up by the apartheid regime – with the (bantustan-like) occupied territories, and it remains absurd.
The point is that science, like any other human activity, is not neutral, regardless of whether one is conscious of it or not. And if scientists wish to stand in solidarity with their Palestinian counterparts, then they ought to hear their opinion on the matter, which is overwhelmingly in favor of the academic boycott and against any collaboration involving Israeli institutions. Otherwise any idea of helping science in Palestine is just a charitable exercise, rooted in a Western-savior mentality.
At the end of the day boycotts, be they purely academic or wide-ranging like BDS, will not alone bring about justice and freedom for the Palestinians. The key role will be played by the Palestinian people.
But the scientific community needs to understand that it has a role to play, and boycotts have proven effective in fighting apartheid, in both its South African and Israeli incarnations, and the normalization that is crucial to its existence.
Ricardo Vaz is a writer and editor at Investig’Action.

Israel carries out ‘large-scale attack’ in Syria after Israeli jet crashes under antiaircraft fire

 Israel said one of its F-16 jets crashed in northern Israel on Feb. 10 after facing heavy anti-aircraft counter fire from Syria. 

 Israel says it launched a “large-scale” aerial attack inside Syria on Saturday after one of its jets was downed under Syrian antiaircraft fire, in a series of cross-border incidents that threatened to destabilize the volatile region between the two countries.

Israel says the situation started with an Iranian drone crossing into its territory from Syria at around 4:30 a.m. It was shot down by an Israeli attack helicopter.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahran Qasemi, however, described the Israeli claim as “ridiculous.”

Israel later dispatched eight fighter jets to bomb the T4 military base near the Syrian city of Palmyra, from where it says the drone was dispatched and controlled. Syria responded with “substantial Syrian antiaircraft fire” under which two Israeli pilots ejected from their F-16, which crashed inside Israel, according to the Israeli military. One of the pilots was severely injured, it said.

“The Syrians are playing with fire that they are allowing the Iranians to attack Israel from their soil,” said Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces. “The IDF is ready and capable to inflict a heavy price on anyone that attacks us. This is a severe attack and a breach of Israeli sovereignty perpetrated by Iran.”

The Israeli military released video it said shows an Iranian drone in Israeli airspace on Feb. 10, before it was destroyed by an Israeli attack helicopter. 
After its fighter jet crashed, Israel responded by targeting 12 military sites in Syria — eight Syrian and four that it said were Iranian. The stated targets included three air defense batteries and a base belonging to the Syrian army’s 4th Division on the outskirts of the capital, Damascus.

Qasemi said that the Syrian government had the right to defend itself “against any foreign aggression” in reference to the Israeli jet being targeted.

The Israeli military said it was investigating whether its jet was hit directly.

The Syrian state news agency said more than one plane was hit, describing the bombing of the base as a “new Israeli aggression.”

A military alliance backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that any other incursion by Israel would be met with “serious and fierce” retaliation.

Russia, which has troops based at T4 military base, reacted with anger.

“The creation of any threat to the lives and safety of Russian military servicemen currently in Syria on the invitation of its lawful government to help fight terrorists is absolutely unacceptable,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Israel has attacked targets in Syria after an Israeli war plane was shot down on Feb. 10 by Syrian anti-aircraft fire. 
The attack could complicate Russian-Israeli relations. Just last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Moscow for talks about Syria, specifically the growing influence of Iran.

After meeting with Vladi­mir Putin, Netanyahu in a video statement said he told the Russian president that Israel viewed two developments with severity: “One, the attempts by Iran to base itself militarily in Syria and the second, Iran’s attempt to produce in Lebanon accurate weapons against the state of Israel. I made it clear to him that we will not agree to any of those developments and we will act accordingly.”

Israel has looked on with alarm as its archenemy Iran has extended its reach in the region during conflicts in Iraq and Syria. Along with its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah it has provided military support for Assad during the country’s nearly seven-year-long civil war, while backing Shiite militia forces in Iraq in their fight against the Islamic State.

In an attempt to contain Iran and its proxies, Israel has regularly carried out airstrikes inside Syria, though it has in the past refrained from acknowledging its responsibility for specific bombings.
Syria’s response in the past has been limited, but it appeared to be sending a message on Saturday that it would not remain that way.

“Israelis must realize that they no longer have superiority in the skies nor on the ground,” Fares Shehabi, a member of the Syrian parliament for Aleppo tweeted. He said that Syria fired more than 24 surface-to-air missiles at Israeli jets. “Much more will be fired in the future at Israeli airports if Israel continues its aggressions.”

Conricus, the Israel Defense Forces spokesman, confirmed that between 15 and 20 surface-to-air missiles were launched by Syria as Israel launched the second round of attacks. The pro-Syrian military alliance, which includes Hezbollah and Iran, released a statement describing the Israeli claim that an Iranian drone had entered its airspace as a “lie and fabrication.”

But Conricus said that Israel was in possession of the remains of the drone and that Israeli officials were certain was Iranian. It did not cross randomly but was “on a mission” he said, though he declined to give more details or comment on whether the drone was armed.

Civilians on both sides of the border were awaked to the military exchange.

“We can hear the sounds of the explosions,” said one Damascus resident, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. He said the sound of Syrian antiaircraft missiles is louder than usual. Air raid sirens were triggered in residential areas on Israel’s northern border.

Shlomo Mishal, 55, from Beit Shean in northern Israel, said that he was waked by the sirens at around 4:30 a.m.

“We heard a loud bang but we did not know what was going on and ran downstairs to the shelter, a safe room in our home,” he said.

Mishal said that his friends and neighbors in the town started sharing text messages and social media posts, with rumors flying around about what had happened, until 8 a.m. when the news stations gave details of the Iranian drone being shot down.

“The fact that this happened not far from our home, the fact there was an Iranian drone overhead is not nice and makes us uncomfortable,” he said.

Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami, deputy head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, refused to comment. He was speaking on the sidelines of a conference marking the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported. Salami added: “We have no military presence in Syria.”

The Israeli military said it was not looking to escalate the situation but was ready for various scenarios. Netanyahu was holding an emergency meeting with his Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman at Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv on Saturday morning.

 Members of Israel’s security cabinet, including Netanyahu, toured the Golan Heights on Tuesday and were briefed by the general chief of staff of the army Gadi Eizenkot and other top military commanders.

Louisa Loveluck in Beirut. Erin Cunningham in Istanbul and Anton Troianovski in Moscow contributed to this report.

Two soldiers killed after Turkish chopper shot down during Syria operation


Turkish President Erdogan vows the culprits will pay a 'heavier price' after two soldiers die in crash
Smoke from burning tires, used to limit the visibility of planes, blows across the northern Syrian town of Afrin on 2 February 2018 (AFP)


Saturday 10 February 2018 
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday said a Turkish military helicopter had been shot down during Ankara's military offensive against a pro-Kurdish militia in northern Syria.
"A little earlier, one of our helicopters was shot down," Erdogan said in televised remarks without saying who was responsible but vowing they would pay a "heavier price".
Prime Minister Binali Yildirim told reporters the downed chopper was a T129 ATAK helicopter, and was shot down in Kirikhan district of Hatay province, killing two soldiers.
However, pro-Kurdish news sources said it was shot down in the village of Qude in Afrin's Rajo district.
Saturday 10 February 2018

The incident marks an escalation in Turkey's operation in Afrin, which aims to defeat the pro-Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and their political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD).
Turkey regards the YPG as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has fought a guerilla war with the Turkish state since 1984.
The Afrin invasion, launched on 20 January, aims to the prevent the YPG from establishing a statelet on Turkey's borders, which they fear could become a base for PKK attacks in Turkey.
A member of Afrin's civil administration, Hevi Mustafa, was quoted by Reuters as saying the Turkish offensive had so far killed 160 people, including 26 children and 17 women. She added that around 60,000 had been displaced.
Read more ►
"This has created a humanitarian crisis, because the capacities of the region are not enough to meet the needs of this massive displacement," she told a news conference.
Erdogan claimed that 1,141 "terrorists" had been "neutralised" in the operation, which includes those captured dead or alive, or those who surrendered.
In a statement, the Turkish military said that air strikes destroyed shelters, hideouts and ammunition depots belonging to the YPG and the Islamic State group, which Turkey says it is also combating in the operation.
The military said that 36 targets were destroyed on the 22nd day of Operation Olive Branch, killing 79 "terrorists".
Murat Karayilan, a member of the PKK's Executive Council, told the pro-Kurdish Firat News Agency that Turkey was telling "lies" about the extent of the casualties it had suffered and number of YPG fighters killed.
"The casualties of al-Qaeda gangs are about 350 and Turkish army lost about 200 soldiers," he said, adding that the YPG had only suffered 100 casualties.
"But they are hiding this from Turkey's public. Turkish army releases statements every day but these are only funny. A fighting army cannot rely so much on lies."
He said Erdogan and the Turkish media were "trying to cover the Turkish army’s failure in Afrin".
- Additional reporting by AFP

Four killed as militants attack camp in Jammu and Kashmir: army


Indian army soldiers stand guard outside an army camp after suspected militants attacked the camp, in Jammu, February 10, 2018. REUTERS/Mukesh Gupta

FEBRUARY 10, 2018

SRINAGAR, India (Reuters) - Militants stormed an Indian army camp early on Saturday in the country’s northern Jammu and Kashmir state, killing two army personnel and wounding nine people, an army spokesman said.

Two militants had also been killed as of Saturday evening - the men wore fatigues and carried assault rifles, a large amount of ammunition and hand grenades - said the spokesman, Lt. Col. Devender Anand.

Among the wounded were five women and children, he said.

The site was cordoned off and surrounded by police and army units called in as reinforcements.

Efforts to clear the camp were ongoing, Anand said. ”The operations will continue till all terrorists are apprehended or killed”, he said.

S.D. Singh Jamwal, the inspector general of police in Jammu, said that at about 4:55 a.m., a guard noticed suspicious movement before gunfire on his bunker.

“The fire was retaliated. The number of militants isn’t known,” he said.

India accuses Pakistan of training and arming militants and helping them infiltrate across the Line of Control that divides the Kashmir region. Pakistan denies the allegations.

The South Asian neighbours have fought two of their three wars since independence in 1947 over Muslim-majority Kashmir, which they both claim in full but rule in part.

Pressure grows on John Kelly amid reports he offered to resign

The former general was meant to bring military discipline but his role in the Rob Porter case has raised new questions about his judgment
The White House chief of staff, John Kelly: only the second general to hold the position. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

David Smith in Washington @smithinamerica Sat 10 Feb 2018 06.00 GMT

Pressure on White House chief of staff John Kelly was intensifying on Saturday after a series of missteps, most notably his defence of a senior official accused of domestic violence.

Ominously Donald Trump has been grumbling about Kelly’s performance and weighing up possible replacements, according to media reports.

Reports in the New York Times suggested that Kelly told staff on Friday he was willing to resign over his mishandling of the domestic violence allegations that led to staff secretary Rob Porter’s resignation, and that simultaneously Trump was now considering Mick Mulvaney, currently White House budget director and head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as a possible successor. But a third chief of staff in just over a year, along with the rapid turnover of other officials, would only fuel perceptions of mismanagement.

Observers used to hope that John Kelly would be able to tame Donald Trump. Now, the joke goes, they are hoping Donald Trump will be able to tame John Kelly.

“He’s really been a failure,” said Chris Whipple, author of The Gatekeepers: How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency. “There were high expectations that, with such gravitas and authority, he would be the grownup in the room, smoothing the rough edges off the would-be authoritarian Trump. It’s been the opposite: Kelly has reinforced Trump’s worst instincts. Trump is a human wrecking ball and Kelly is his biggest enabler.”

It is a startling decline in fortunes for the retired four-star marine corps general, who took over from Reince Priebus last July with an apparent brief to instil military discipline in a chaotic White House. Trump heaped praise on him for doing a “spectacular job” as homeland security secretary, where he led a crackdown on undocumented immigrants, and said Kelly was a “true star” of his administration.

Kelly last year became only the second general to become chief of staff, following Al Haig, who served under Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. The 67-year-old, from an Irish Catholic family in Boston, enlisted in the marines in 1970. His son Robert, a first lieutenant in the marines, was killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2010. Kelly stepped down in 2016 from US southern command, where he oversaw US military activities including the prison at Guantánamo Bay, which he staunchly supports.

As chief of staff he has proved amenable and accessible to reporters, speaking casually off the record at lighthearted events such as the Thanksgiving turkey pardoning and Christmas reception, where he made clear his lack of understanding of Twitter. He cut a sympathetic figure when, as his boss ruminated on a white supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia, and claimed there was blame “on both sides”, Kelly stared gloomily at the floor as if channeling a nation’s dismay.

But as public debate raged over civil war statues, Kelly expressed some troubling views of his own.

He described Confederate general Robert E Lee as “an honorable man” and blamed the conflict on “the lack of an ability to compromise” rather than slavery, contending that “men and women of good faith on both sides made their stand”.

There was worse to come. In October, Kelly made a rare appearance at the White House press briefing and declared that he would only take questions from reporters who had a personal connection to a fallen soldier, followed by those who knew a gold star family. Some critics suggested it had the whiff of a military junta.

Kelly also lambasted Democratic congresswoman Frederica Wilson, who is African American, for listening in on Trump’s call to the widow of a soldier killed in an ambush in Niger. The chief of staff said the congresswoman was speaking “in the long tradition of empty barrels making the most noise” and falsely accused her of claiming credit for winning funding for a new FBI building in Miami at its 2015 christening.

Kelly angered Trump last month when he appeared to suggest that the president was backing away from his promise for a border wall.


John Kelly walks with the then White House staff secretary Rob Porter in November 2017. Kelly allegedly knew of the domestic violence allegations against Porter last autumn. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Then came his worst week yet. The chief of staff fought for Porter, said to be his closest aide, to keep his job as White House staff secretary despite allegations of physical assault from two ex-wives. Porter has denied the claims and on Friday Trump praised him for doing “a very good job”. A second White House aide, speechwriter David Sorensen, was forced to resign amid similar accusations, which he denied, on Friday night.

At first, Kelly issued a full-throated defence of Porter as a “a friend, a confidant and a trusted professional”. Hours later, when a photo was published showing one of the women with a black eye, Kelly conceded he was “shocked” by the allegations but continued to stand by him. By Wednesday night, however, Porter was gone, and media reports suggested that Kelly had known since last autumn there were allegations against him from his ex-wives. Kelly faced the questions normally reserved for presidents in strife: what did he know and when did he know it?

Whipple reflected: “A month ago, you might have said at least he runs a tight ship, but now that’s in doubt. The Rob Porter debacle is the latest example. He’s now a contender for one of the least effective chiefs in modern history.”

Mainstream Republicans expressed concern. Michael Steele, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, said: “He tries to put the best foot forward on these things but, as the Porter situation illustrates, it is fraught with all sorts of perils. He has to stop and ask himself, when he was commanding his troops and information like this became available about one of them, what would he do? I don’t think he would say that person was a great guy.”

Kelly’s willingness to speak out breaks from past chiefs of staff and could backfire. Steele added: “The chief of staff should not be in a position where he’s expressing his opinion on anything. He should be expressing what the president wants. That at least makes it easy for him to deal with some of this.”

Indeed, Kelly may have thought he was expressing the president’s thoughts on Tuesday when he claimed that some immigrants are “too lazy to get off their asses” to register for government protections. But it was the kind of language that out-Trumped Trump himself.


‘Kelly has reinforced Trump’s worst instincts. Trump is a human wrecking ball and Kelly is his biggest enabler,’ said author Chris Whipple. Photograph: UPI / Barcroft Images

Bob Shrum, a Democratic strategist, said the comment was “trafficking in the worst kind of racist stereotypes. He was supposed to be the person who was going to keep Trump from saying things like that; instead he’s saying them himself. He was supposed to bring a lot of Kelly to Trump; instead Trump has brought a lot of Trump to Kelly.”

Shrum, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, added: “He went into this job with a pretty strong reputation but he’ll leave it with a somewhat bruised reputation. Instead of eliminating the chaos he just seems to have created a latticework around it. Let me put it this way: he’s no Jim Baker,” a reference to a chief of staff who served under Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush.

Others suggest that Kelly’s impact has been mixed. Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington and former policy adviser to Bill Clinton, said: “On a procedural, managerial level, it’s clear he’s brought a level of regularity and predictability to the routine of the White House. He’s reduced the free-form access to the president that held for the first months of the administration. That’s important, especially when the president is so hyper-reactive.

“On the minus side, I think it’s clear that General Kelly has been something less than the neutral honest broker that a lot of people expected or hoped he would be. He’s a man with views of his own, many of which mesh with the president’s. On a number of occasions he’s put his thumbs on the scale in way that some applaud and others deplore.

“When it comes to immigration, General Kelly has not been a check and a balance against the president’s extreme tendencies.”

Will Trump break international law over North Korea?

2018-02-10
We are soon going to have a clash between President Donald Trump and international law. This is predictable when one examines the presidential discourse over what to do about North Korea and its possession of nuclear-tipped rockets. He has threatened “fire and fury” which doesn’t sound like the opening words of the UN’s Charter: “We the peoples of the United Nations determined to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war…..and to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained……and for these ends to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours.”  

There should be no question that if the Charter is followed that Trump cannot legally make a pre-emptive strike, be it either nuclear or conventional, unless war is imminent because of threatening moves by the antagonist. He could only do it legally, as a self-defensive move, if North Korea was seen actually preparing for an attack - which can be judged from ultra-aggressive troop movements or the loading (which takes some time) of liquid fuel into rockets.  

For Trump’s part he should stop doing things that provoke North Korea and make them feel that the US is practising for a preventive strike, such as holding military exercises close to its borders. That is not, as the Charter says, taking “effective measures for the prevention and removal of the threats to peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression.”  

Up until the end of the nineteenth century politicians were convinced that every state had the customary right to embark upon war whenever it pleased. Statesman would recite a host of justifications for war: to retrieve unpaid debts, territorial incursion, dynastic disputes, regional destabilization, the pacification and “civilizing” of colonies-to-be, honour etc. Wars in this period were given legitimacy in political not legal terms. Few go along with this today. War can only be for ‘self-defence’.  

The US managed to persuade the member nations of the UN Security Council to approve the going to war with Iraq when it seized Kuwait to grab its oil fields. Legality was important to President George H.W Bush.  

On the eve of the Second Gulf War his son, George W. Bush, brushed aside legality, refusing to accept calls to wait until the UN’s arms inspector, Hans Blix, had ascertained whether Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. After the US/UK invasion when it became certain that Bush and the UK’s prime minister, Tony Blair, had bent the evidence and Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction there was no effort by the UK/US to admit to wrongdoing. 

 

With the UN’s Anti-Torture Convention- which two previous conservative leaders of the US and UK, Ronald Regan and Margaret Thatcher, decided to ratify- there was a legal dance by Bush and Blair to avoid its restrictions. Bush and Blair did not refute the Convention. They simply argued that torture was not torture as practised. Waterboarding and other forms of what most of us would describe as torture were no more than “enhanced interrogation”.  

Later, Bush junior and President Barack Obama extended the ‘self-defence’ argument to the use of drones to pick off leaders of Al Qaeda. The Charter is clear: self-defence is only allowed in emergencies before the Security Council has had time to consider the crisis. Then, if the Security Council deems that a country has been attacked, it can use all the resources of itself and its allies to repel the invader. North Korea is not creating such an emergency.  

In an impressive and balanced new book, “How To Do Things With International Law” the American legal scholar, Ian Hurd, writes that the US and UK interpretation of ‘self-defence’ can “make the ban on war look more like an authorization of the use of force than a constraint upon it”.  

This interpretation, writes Hurd, has evolved “under the influence of strong states”. Nevertheless, the Charter’s power and standing is still acknowledged in principle by the big powers and thus it is “more difficult for states to engage in wars of aggression, profit, the ‘defence’ of democracy, and humanitarianism.” At least we can say that these days certain categories of war are not acceptable, even by the big powers.  

Bush rode over the UN Charter on one of its central points. So did President Bill Clinton when he invaded ex-Yugoslavia and later Kosovo in an attempt to end the murderous civil war and to roll back Serbian influence. So did President Vladimir Putin with his invasion of Crimea.  

Bush, Blair, Clinton, Obama and Putin were all in the wrong. They didn’t understand that international law is a necessary contribution to a stable and peaceful world.  

Tragically, it is becoming obvious that Trump might well give it the hardest knock of all.  
For 17 years the writer has been a columnist and commentator for the International Herald Tribune/New York Times.  
America’s extraordinary economic gamble

Fiscal policy is adding to demand even as the economy is running hot



Feb 8th 2018

VOLATILITY is back. A long spell of calm, in which America’s stockmarket rose steadily without a big sell-off, ended abruptly this week. The catalyst was a report released on February 2nd showing that wage growth in America had accelerated. The S&P 500 fell by a bit that day, and by a lot on the next trading day. The Vix, an index that reflects how changeable investors expect equity markets to be, spiked from a sleepy 14 at the start of the month to an alarmed 37. In other parts of the world nerves frayed.

Markets later regained some of their composure (see article). But more adrenalin-fuelled sessions lie ahead. That is because a transition is under way in which buoyant global growth causes inflation to replace stagnation as investors’ biggest fear. And that long-awaited shift is being complicated by an extraordinary gamble in the world’s biggest economy. Thanks to the recently enacted tax cuts, America is adding a hefty fiscal boost to juice up an expansion that is already mature. Public borrowing is set to double to $1 trillion, or 5% of GDP, in the next fiscal year. What is more, the team that is steering this experiment, both in the White House and the Federal Reserve, is the most inexperienced in recent memory. Whether the outcome is boom or bust, it is going to be a wild ride.

Fire your engines

The recent equity-market gyrations by themselves give little cause for concern. The world economy remains in fine fettle, buoyed by a synchronised acceleration in America, Europe and Asia. The violence of the repricing was because of newfangled vehicles that had been caught out betting on low volatility. However, even as they scrambled to react to its re-emergence, the collateral damage to other markets, such as corporate bonds and foreign exchange, was limited. Despite the plunge, American stock prices have fallen back only to where they were at the beginning of the year.
Yet this episode does signal just what may lie ahead. After years in which investors could rely on central banks for support, the safety net of extraordinarily loose monetary policy is slowly being dismantled. America’s Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times already since late 2015 and is set to do so again next month. Ten-year Treasury-bond yields have risen from below 2.1% in September to 2.8%. Stockmarkets are in a tug-of-war between stronger profits, which warrant higher share prices, and higher bond yields, which depress the present value of those earnings and make eye-watering valuations harder to justify.

This tension is an inevitable part of the return of monetary policy to more normal conditions. What is not inevitable is the scale of America’s impending fiscal bet. Economists reckon that Mr Trump’s tax reform, which lowers bills for firms and wealthy Americans—and to a lesser extent for ordinary workers—will jolt consumption and investment to boost growth by around 0.3% this year. And Congress is about to boost government spending, if a budget deal announced this week holds up. Democrats are to get more funds for child care and other goodies; hawks in both parties have won more money for the defence budget. Mr Trump, meanwhile, still wants his border wall and an infrastructure plan. The mood of fiscal insouciance in Washington, DC, is troubling. Add the extra spending to rising pension and health-care costs, and America is set to run deficits above 5% of GDP for the foreseeable future. Excluding the deep recessions of the early 1980s and 2008, the United States is being more profligate than at any time since 1945.

A cocktail of expensive stockmarkets, a maturing business cycle and fiscal largesse would test the mettle of the most experienced policymakers. Instead, American fiscal policy is being run by people who have bought into the mantra that deficits don’t matter. And the central bank has a brand new boss, Jerome Powell, who, unlike his recent predecessors, has no formal expertise in monetary policy.

Does Powell like fast cars?

What will determine how this gamble turns out? In the medium term, America will have to get to grips with its fiscal deficit. Otherwise interest rates will eventually soar, much as they did in the 1980s. But in the short term most hangs on Mr Powell, who must steer between two opposite dangers. One is that he is too doveish, backing away from the gradual (and fairly modest) tightening in the Fed’s current plans as a salve to jittery financial markets. In effect, he would be creating a “Powell put” which would in time lead to financial bubbles. The other danger is that the Fed tightens too much too fast because it fears the economy is overheating.

On balance, hasty tightening is the greater risk. New to his role, Mr Powell may be tempted to establish his inflation-fighting chops—and his independence from the White House—by pushing for higher rates faster. That would be a mistake, for three reasons.

First, it is far from clear that the economy is at full employment. Policymakers tend to consider those who have dropped out of the jobs market as lost to the economy for good. Yet many have been returning to work, and plenty more may yet follow (see article). Second, the risk of a sudden burst of inflation is limited. Wage growth has picked up only gradually in America. There is little evidence of it in Germany and Japan, which also have low unemployment. The wage-bargaining arrangements behind the explosive wage-price spiral of the early 1970s are long gone. Third, there are sizeable benefits from letting the labour market tighten further. Wages are growing fastest at the bottom of the earnings scale. That not only helps the blue-collar workers who have been hit disproportionately hard by technological change and globalisation. It also prompts firms to invest more in capital equipment, giving a boost to productivity growth.

To be clear, this newspaper would not advise a fiscal stimulus of the scale that America is undertaking. It is poorly designed and recklessly large. It will add to financial-market volatility. But now that this experiment is under way, it is even more important that the Fed does not lose its head.
Duterte ready to ‘personally’ defend himself at International Criminal Court
PHILIPPINES President Rodrigo Duterte will “personally” defend himself at the International Criminal Court (ICC) over his government’s deadly war on drugs, a spokesman said on Thursday.

Speaking at the Malacañang presidential palace, Harry Roque said Duterte was “sick and tired” of being accused of crimes against humanity, as he claimed the ICC Office of the Prosecutor was starting preliminary examination into extrajudicial killings as part of the drugs war.

“The President has said that if need be, he will argue his case personally before the International Criminal Court,” Roque said as quoted by the state-run Philippine News Agency. “This is an opportunity for him to prove that this is not subject to the court’s jurisdiction.”


Human Rights Watch estimated this month that more than 12,000 people have been killed by police and plain clothed gunmen since the anti-drug campaign began in June 2016. Official statistics put the number of dead at around 4000.

Roque said that an ICC investigation was the result of two separate “communications” from lawyer Jude Sabio and two parliamentarians, claiming that there were crimes against humanity occurring in the Philippines.
2018-02-05T080935Z_291546237_RC1BEEEA8EF0_RTRMADP_3_PHILIPPINES-DRUGS-SLUM
A crying angel is painted by an artist on a wall to mark a place where a woman who was arrested during an anti-drug operation was found dead a day later, in Navotas, Metro Manila, Philippines, December 16, 2017. Source: Reuters/Dondi Tawatao

Sabio’s complaint last April claimed that Duterte had “repeatedly, unchangingly and continuously” committed crimes against humanity. Last week, Amnesty International called for an investigation by the ICC into drug war killings, claiming that “the Philippines neither can nor should try to solve its drug problems at gunpoint.”

The ICC has made no public announcement about preliminary examinations of Duterte, however.

In late 2016, the president said threats of indictment to the ICC were “bullshit” and called European lawyers “rotten” with “a brain like a pea”. He has previously threatened to withdraw the Philippines’ membership from the international legal body.

“[Duterte] will assert the legality of the war against drugs as a valid exercise of sovereign powers and therefore the element required for a crime against humanity is lacking,” said Roque on Thursday, presenting a slide show of the legal elements required for a crime against humanity.

“Because the war on drug[s] is a lawful, legitimate police operation, it cannot be characterised as an attack against civilian populations because they are civilians,” he said, noting that Duterte is a lawyer by trade.


“Obviously this is intended to embarrass the President … they will fail.”