Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Friday, February 9, 2018

Deport Brigadier Fernando: TNA Joins Diaspora Furore

author: COLOMBO TELEGRAPH-
February 10, 2018


The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has joined 10 foreign-based Tamil diaspora organizations in demanding that Boris Johnson, MP and Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs ‘to declare the Sri Lankan military attache,

Brigadier Priyanka Fernando a “Persona Non Grata” for committing serious offences under British Law, abusing diplomatic immunity in the UK and committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Sri Lanka and therefore to curtain his leave to remain in the UK.’


imageThe letter has been signed by representatives of the following diaspora organizations apart from the TNA: British Tamil Conservatives (BTC), British Tamil Forum (BTF), Global Tamil Forum (GTF), International Centre for the Prevention and Prosecution of Genocide (ICPPG), Tamils Coordinating Committee (TCC-UK), Tamils for Labour, Tamil Friends of the Liberal Democrats, Tamil Information Centre (TIC), Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) and Tamil Solidarity.

This follows Fernando making a throat-slitting gesture towards protestors demonstrating outside the Sri Lanka mission in London on the country’s Independence Day.

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Massive Rally in London Urging UK to Arrest Sri Lankan Military Attaché for War Crimes Against Tamils: TGTE

Tamil Civilians Fleeing Bombing by Sri Lankan Forces

Rally on Friday, February 9th at 2:00 pm at Sri Lankan High Commission and March to UK's Foreign Commonwealth Office.
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM , February 8, 2018 /EINPresswire.com/ --
EIN PresswirelogoTransnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) announced today that they are joining hands with other Tamil groups: Tamil Youth Organization, Tamil Coordinating Committee and Tamil Solidarity, in a massive rally in London on Friday, February 9th, urging UK Government to arrest Sri Lankan Military Attaché Brigadier Priyanka Fernando for committing War Crimes, Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide against Tamil people and prosecute him under Universal Jurisdiction.
WHEN: Friday, February 9th at 2:00 pm.
WHERE: Rally will begin outside Sri Lankan High Commission at 13 Hyde Park Gardens.
MARCH: Demonstrators will march from Sri Lankan High Commission to UK’s Foreign Commonwealth Office at King Charles Street, Westminster.
WHY: Urging UK Government to arrest Sri Lankan Military Attaché Brigadier Priyanka Fernando for committing War crimes, Crimes against Humanity and Genocide against Tamil people and prosecute him under Universal Jurisdiction.
CONTACT: TGTE’s Minister for Human Rights Mr. Manivannan. Phone (UK): 00-44-786-9133-073. Email: humanrightsministry@tgte.org
INFORMATION:
1) Several Tamil victims who currently live in UK have filed complaints to the UK police, about gross human rights abuses they underwent in Sri Lanka, amounting to War Crimes, Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide.
2) There are several reports published by UN and others, identifying Brigadier Priyanka Fernando’s regiment, the Gemunu Watch Battalion of the 59th Division, as responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the final months of the war in 2009. According to the UN and other organizations, the 59th Division was the frontline fighting force that committed numerous war crimes, including repeated bombing and shelling of hospitals, food distribution centers and other civilian areas.
3) According to the 2012 UN Internal Review Report on Sri Lanka around 70 thousand Tamils were killed in 2009 and a large number of Tamil women were sexually assaulted and raped by Sri Lankan security forces.
4) The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in his statement to the UN Human Rights Council in March 2017 urged countries around the world to initiate actions under Universal Jurisdiction to hold those responsible for committing international crimes in Sri Lanka.

ABOUT TRANSNATIONAL GOVERNMENT OF TAMIL EELAM (TGTE):
Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE) is a democratically elected Government of a million strong Tamils (from the island of Sri Lanka) living in several countries around the world. TGTE was formed after the mass killing of Tamils by the Sri Lankan Government in 2009.
TGTE twice held internationally supervised elections among Tamils around the world to elect 132 Members of Parliament. It has two champers of Parliament: The House of Representatives and Senate and a Cabinet.
TGTE is leading a campaign to realize Tamils’ political aspirations through peaceful, democratic and diplomatic means. The Constitution of the TGTE mandates that it should realize its political objective only through peaceful means.
The Prime Minister of TGTE is Mr. Visuvanathan Rudrakumaran, a New York based lawyer.
For information contact: pmo@tgte.org

BACKGROUND:
Tamils in the island of Sri Lanka faced repeated mass killings in 1958, 1977, and 1983 and the mass killings in 2009 prompted UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to appoint a Panel of Experts to report on the scale of the killings.
According to UN internal review report on Sri Lanka, over 70,000 Tamils were killed in six months in early 2009 and Tamil women were sexually assaulted and raped by the Sri Lankan Security forces. There are over 90,000 Tamil war widows and thousands of Tamils disappeared due the conflict.
According to this UN report, the killings and other abuses that took place amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Independent experts believe that there are elements of these abuses that constitute an act of genocide.
Members of the Sri Lankan security forces are almost exclusively from the Sinhalese community and the victims are all from the Tamil community. A Buddhist Monk shot and killed a Sri Lankan Prime Minister 1959 for having talks with Tamils.
Tamils overwhelmingly voted in a Parliamentary election in 1977 to establish an independent and sovereign country called Tamil Eelam. This Parliamentary election was conducted by the Sri Lankan Government.
Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam
TGTE
+44-786-9133-073
email us here

Polls: war by other means

Friday, 9 February 2018 

logoBy the time you read this heaven knows what other cat our political leadership would have let out of the diplomatic bag. After the Presidential Secretariat reversed the Foreign Ministry’s ruling to recall and discipline an errant ambassadorial official who made threatening gestures to a group of Tiger demonstrators outside Sri Lanka’s High Commission in London. But the damage to our once deteriorating and gradually being restored image is probably already done. More tellingly some tilting of the stage as regards the impending local government polls has been effected as a result of the president’s shenanigans. Of course, the military attaché who precipitated the storm in a Ceylon tea cup can hardly be let off the hook. Be all of these as they may, here is yet another issue on which sundry demographics in the nation-state perilously poised on the edge of a divisive precipice have drawn battle lines once again.

Conventional wisdom 

An ambassadorial employee of whatever rank or disposition is first and foremost a civil servant albeit attached to the foreign office. If the embassy appointment necessitates the employment of a military attaché, the individual in question must remind himself and be remonstrated by his peers if he at any time acts in contravention of the unwritten rule that a diplomat holding a commission is expected to discharge himself as an officer and a gentleman at all times. In fact on closer inspection it transpires that such a code of conduct in encapsulated in the standing orders. If a servant of the republic falls foul of such a high standard, he is subject to enquiry and castigation if found to be culpable – notwithstanding military prowess or field decorations. 

Devil’s advocate 

The war was won by a rich mix of political entrepreneurship and military derring-do which flew in the face of naysayers in liberal circles. Therefore gunboat diplomacy must triumph over ambassadorial etiquette. Career diplomats may be summoned and disciplined in private, but not so much as a dressing-down can be meted out to military attachés much less a court martial and cashiering. This in a sense is the new conventional wisdom in that it touches a chord with many Sri Lankans even today almost a decade after the cessation of hostilities in a brutal and bitter hardly civil conflict. That unscrupulous politicos with their eye on the main chance have managed to tap time and again into the ethno-nationalist chauvinism latent in the island’s mainstream psyche redounds to the glory and honour of neither or none…

Ground reality 

That an ambassador is one who lies abroad for his country is not germane to a case where the more damaging truth by far is that political or military attachés often achieve the opposite and equally undesirable effect. They showcase the grimmer realities under the surface of the cosmetic suavity of the nation state they ostensibly reflect and in fact represent. To this add the penchant of successive generations of national leaders to play ducks and drakes with what used to be a pretty sophisticated and elite corps of educated highly trained professionals to do abroad what politicians wish their cabinets could accomplish at home. It has been the undoing of the foreign service, the national image, and sundry careers. Now the timing in this case makes the odour more suspect than the usual aroma of chrysanthemums in the foyer. The outcome of the election could hinge on the expansive gesture of the President in overruling the disciplinary strictures of civil servitude.

It is in this context – and not necessarily with too much concern about the state of our diplomatic corps – that one is enjoined to sit the exam given below.

The Acid Tests

(First sit down. Or if you must, stand up. As long as you refrain from any sudden movements such as a reversal of political fortunes or change of policies, or sundry threatening gestures such as signalling that you would slit the examiner’s throat in a jiffy given half a chance.)         
                   

A. Essays

A President must remain impartial in matters of foreign policy. He must remind himself as one of two heads in a coalition of coalitions of the promises he made the people he fooled, er ruled, and the pledges he swept away, er kept, to his premier political partners. (Critically evaluate. Ignore the Prime Minister’s kind entreaty to his cabinet colleagues not to say nasty things to the nation’s head leader or lead header or whatever. Ask yourself what it’s all in aid of if not self-serving signals being sent out to a polity that is still regrettably most influenced in terms of its susceptibility to ethno-national issues. Be nice to our war heroes. Because some of them might slit your throat if you forget not to demonstrate.)   


B. Short Answers

i. An officer and a gentleman is one who says “please may I” before and “thank you so much” after he has slit your throat or promised to do so before the watching world. (Explode this myth. Don’t forget not to be nasty or nice.)

ii. A war hero is someone who has survived the war unscathed in heart and mind as well as body and soul – and not necessarily the last man left standing after all the shouting and killing has come to an end. (Explore this minefield. Be careful.) 


C. Multiple Choice Questions  

1. “I keep putting my foot in my mouth because…”

a. A President must be flexible enough to show his partners who’s the boss

b. An executive must flex his muscles to keep the minions on their toes

c. Any idiot can see that I’m not the savant the UNP made me out to be


2. “My sense of style as a leader has my sternest critics as well as my stoutest champions saying…”

a. My hat!

b. My sainted aunt…

c. My three idiot sons even never gave me so much trouble when I was President, no?

d. My name is Bond, shames Bond… shoot from the hip – and damn the collateral damage! 


3. The last laugh will be on:

a. MR, Gota, Basil & Co. when I spring my surprise on them the same way I did on those ‘My name is Bond’ fellows

b. Tricky Wicky when he discovers that even these broadsides are nothing like the whiff of grapeshot I’m reserving for those campaign-finance and money-laundering racketeers

c. The gullible consumers in the blue party who thought I’d have eaten my last egg-hopper by now


4. Fill In The Blanks

i. A diplomat is one who _____ (lies/lives/slits/slithers) abroad for one’s country

ii. An enquiry is what takes place _____ (after/before) the miscreant has been reinstated

iii. The _____ (winner/loser/last man standing) takes it all

iv. Imitation is the sincerest form of _____ (flattery/flattening/flat refusal to grow up and be a world class leader/fat around the middle, preventing one from growing a pair)


5. Quote Completion

“A _____ (democrat/diplomat/diplomutt) at home and a _____ (tyrant/tin-pot dictator/tin-hat toy soldier/crackpot chauvinist) overseas” – that’s the new damned math… sorry, new diplomatic mandate.

One more thing

Well, three more in fact…

First, the naïve view: the President is proving to be predictably partisan and showing the true shade of the typical self-serving politico corrupted by the infinitely corruptible office he holds. In this sense he deserves the patronising nomenclature heaped on him – such as peasant and patriarchal paternalist in polite society’s champagne social media platforms, as well as less honorific appellations in lowly arrack and soda klatches.

Then, a hypothetical strategy: our Head of State has no intention of being a one-time Chief Executive, despite his promise to the people and pledges to his erstwhile coalition partners. Sensing that now is the time to cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war against his putative opponents for LG as well as loftier laurels, he has taken a calculated risk in pre-emptive as well as punitive strikes against the UNP. The five or six year question, the bond scam sabre rattling and following through with the touché of two arrests are all part of this scenario. To this mix add the sickening populism that has given the national interest a nauseating vertigo for 70 years. 

And, last but not least, a cynical take: Maithri, like his former boss Mahinda, is adept at playing to the gallery. Subservient to the GOP, who appear to have some hold over him even now, he seems content to shoot himself and any future prospects such as that which he may have in the foot… to bolster sympathy for the UNP and further the rift in the SLFP… in an ironic sense, keeping his word… but all the while going along to play for time… after which, as with all devil’s advocates, sooner or later out pops the cloven hoof…

If I’m right about the latter, then it’s not so much Aiyo Sirisena who needs to be bothered about being caught out l.b.w., but Tricky Wicky and Co. who would want to guard their stumps. Either way, there’s little if any doubt that the LG polls match is being played on a queered pitch.

A senior journalist, the writer is Editor-at-large of LMD. He believes war is hell, having barely survived a 26-year conflict together with many others of a lost generation hardly found again. And desperately wishes temperatures would drop on both sides of the feverish divide lest we provoke another conflagration. So don’t waste that vote.

Comic president rescinds decision even without foreign ministry’s knowledge ! Brigadier back in the saddle !!


(Lanka-e-News - 08.Feb.2018, 11.30PM)  President Sirisena once again confirmed , what exists in Sri Lanka is not a consensual government , but rather a dual government  when he today (07)  rescinded the official decision taken by the foreign ministry yesterday.
LEN logoThe foreign ministry of SL yesterday interdicted Brigadier Priyanka Fernando  the military attaché at the SL High commission in London and called him back to the country over his crude and uncivilized conduct  most unbecoming of the official position he held. Strangely ,  today the president who is as of late talking and behaving like an insane  idiot  had reversed  that  official decision , and told  the SL High Commission in Britain to investigate the incident while the Brigadier is in service. This statement  was released by the army media spokesman.
Based on Lanka deepa newspaper report ,  the president had not even notified his decision  to the foreign ministry. 
It is an incontrovertible fact a government of a country should act according to its policies and the rules and regulations of the country , and not capriciously according to the opinions of Tamil and Sinhalese racists that  fuel  racism via face book .

 The decision to repatriate  this brigadier was based on his obnoxious cutting the throat disgraceful  gesture   made against Tamil people in Britain , and the response made   by the Tamil social media , and not because any organization or individual lodged a complaint. ( In any case it is to be noted ,  the foreign secretary has the right to institute disciplinary action against the brigadier) .
The president who merely acted in response to the opinions via face book of the Sinhalese who protested against the repatriation of the Brigadier  and took this step , had not  based  his decision on any appeals made by any organization . In other words Sirisena alias Sillysena has demonstrated he is  governing this country on face book posts with only ulterior motives to gain cheap political mileage  because  elections are around the corner.
When the country is being ruled by a confirmed moron who does not know how many years ago his own country received independence , and is uneducated but does not know even that , nothing better than such eccentricities and imbecilities can be expected in that country. 
A letter which makes a legal  analysis in this connection  ,sent by a former foreign diplomatic officer is published elsewhere here. 
---------------------------
by     (2018-02-09 02:52:08)

When political voices shoot down experts’ view

The population growth and urbanization attract much interest, but at the same time are major concerns that have a mutual nexus. As estimated, nearly four million people are living in urban areas in Sri Lanka today.

 2018-02-09
 Researchers state that the figures are expected to grow up to 6.8 million by 2030. The national population is growing at the rate of 1.0 percent annually, whereas the urban population is growing at a higher rate of 3.0 percent, official statistics reveal. The current urban population is distributed throughout 134 cities and towns, 17 Municipal Councils and 38 Urban Councils. There are 52 cities with more than 50, 000 people living in each. The country’s urban population consists of 15 percent of the total. It will reach 30-35 percent by the year 2030 and over 50 percent by 2050, respectively.

AG counter attacks, vows not to give up ‘cleaning op’


article_image
Wijesinghe

by Shamindra Ferdinando- 

Auditor General Gamini Wijesinghe yesterday said that those who had accused him of taking sides in LG polls campaign were way off the mark.

Wijesinghe said that those who had found fault with him for addressing the contentious issue of national debt on the eve of the Feb. 10 polls publicly endorsed his position vis-a-vis the treasury bond scams involving the Perpetual Treasuries Limited (PTL) and various other sensitive matters until they felt threatened by recent revelations.

Responding to criticism, Wijesinghe reiterated that he wouldn’t hesitate to tell the truth regardless of the consequences. Referring to his 2016 annual report that had been released to the media after it was made available to Parliament, Wijesinghe stressed he would stand by figures and assessments given by him.

The AG pointed out that he never protected or supported any party or any individual but always presented a professional point of view. Wijesinghe warned of dire consequences for the country unless the parliament took immediate remedial measures.

Asked whether he regretted having a media briefing on the eve of local government polls, Wijesinghe stressed that he strongly believed the public couldn’t be deprived of the right to know the truth. The AG’s right to perform his duties in accordance with 19th Amendment to the Constitution couldn’t be disputed on the basis of local government poll or national elections. Wijesinghe, admitted that he could be certainly challenged over discrepancy in respect of figures quoted in the report.

Wijesinghe said that he recently told a meeting chaired by President Maithripala Sirisena how the country suffered for want of political commitment to tackle waste, corruption and irregularities. Wijesinghe said that he didn’t mince his words when the gathering was briefed of the national crisis and present government’s failure to enact the much delayed National Audit Bill.

The state financial watchdog urged political parties represented in parliament as well as those interested in wellbeing of the country to examine the overall financial stability of the country. Wijesinghe pointed out that the Opposition had repeatedly and efficiently used a report issued by him in respect of a query made by the then Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake regarding treasury bond transactions between 2008 to 2014 to defend the previous administration. They had faith in the AG’s Office, the current government was urged to peruse the report posted online as it countered the government stand, Wijesinghe said, adding that on several occasions his statements were brazenly utilized.

"Let me tell political authorities, past and present, this. We are facing an unprecedented crisis that’ll cause catastrophe unless urgent measures were taken. Following the conclusion of local government polls, let there be free and frank discussions on national debt, both in and outside parliament," the AG said.

Wijesinghe said that he had one more year to serve the nation and he always believed that the country came first regardless of the consequences.

Wijesinghe received appointment in Nov. 2015 and earned wrath of some government members for being critical of financial status.

The AG said that his department’s untiring efforts played a significant role in inquiring into treasury bond scams of 2015 and 2016. Some had conveniently forgotten that trillions of rupees in public debt included massive portfolio of government securities, treasury bills and bonds issued over the years.

Curbing climate change Carbon-sucking technologies unlikely to help


By Laurie Goering-2018-02-09

Emerging plans to curb climate change by sucking excess emissions out of the atmosphere rely on technologies that have 'limited realistic potential' to work, at least in coming decades, scientists warned Wednesday.

So-called 'negative emissions' technologies - including capturing emissions from the air and storing them underground, or planting much more of the world's land to trees - are unlikely to significantly help hold the line on climate change, they said.

Suggestions that the measures could help keep global temperature increases to under 2 degrees Celsius - the target set in the Paris Agreement on climate change - "appear optimistic" and cannot compensate for inadequate emissions cuts, a report from the European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC) noted.

Instead, "failure to adequately mitigate emissions may have serious implications for future generations", the report said.

"We cannot trust technology to come to the rescue," warned Michael Norton, a science and engineering professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology. Instead, "we need to reduce our emissions as rapidly as possible."

With efforts to cut the use of fossil fuels falling short of what is needed, a growing number of scientists and engineers believe efforts to capture climate pollution already emitted will be necessary to hold warming to relatively safe levels.

Scientists have proposed a range of ideas to do that, from fertilizing the ocean with iron to help it absorb more carbon dioxide, to planting many more carbon-absorbing trees. In some scenarios, those trees would then be harvested and burned for fuel, with the emissions captured and stored underground.

About 87 per cent of science models that show a path to holding world temperature hikes to below 2 degrees Celsius rely on such technologies, said Gideon Henderson, a geochemist at the British Royal Society and chair of a group of UK scientists and engineers looking at the technologies. The problem, he and other scientists said Wednesday at a discussion in London, is that much of the needed technology is still untested, not commercially viable, likely to lead to other risks or simply not possible at the scale needed.

For example, by mid-century, more than 12 gigatons of carbon dioxide would need to be removed from the atmosphere each year, under current climate models - or about a third of the world's current emissions each year, said Henderson.

But most proposed carbon removal technologies would achieve only a tiny fraction of that, he said.
"Most of these technologies are either not scalable to anything like that level or we are too ignorant of their potential and risks to know what could be done," Henderson said.

Technology to store captured carbon below ground - a key part of everything from British plans to address climate change to US President Donald Trump's push for 'clean coal' - is 'in a state of paralysis' with little progress toward making it a viable reality, Norton said.

Large-scale tree planting efforts, similarly, are likely to lead to potential conflicts over land as agriculture, conservation, biofuels and other demands compete for the same pieces of land, they said. Science is "not actually making much headway at all" on removing emissions, Norton said. "We're trying to swim up against a very fierce countercurrent on a lot of these technologies."

A key problem is that most emitters of carbon pollution do not yet pay a cost for that, in the form of a carbon tax. Without such a tax, there is little financial motive for companies to invest in technologies to remove excessive carbon, the scientists said.

Right now, "there is no incentive for anyone to do this," said John Shepherd, part of the EASAC environment steering panel and chair of a Royal Society study of climate 'geoengineering' in 2009.
However, even though the technologies are unlikely to be of significant help in coming decades, research into them needs to continue, particularly as climate change impacts - from worsening floods and droughts to sea level rise - grow stronger, scientists said.

Such 'negative emissions' technologies are less risky than more controversial 'geoengineering' proposals, such as injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight away from the planet, the scientists said.

If climate impacts continue to worsen and threaten lives, "every tool in our toolbox may be necessary in the second half of the century to tackle climate change", Norton said.

Women and girls bear brunt of Israel’s crimes in Jordan Valley

Tamara Nassar Rights and Accountability 8 February 2018

This short documentary by the Palestinian human rights group Al-Haq focuses on the life of a family in al-Hadidiya, a Bedouin community in the northern Jordan Valley.

Titled Sumoud – Arabic for steadfastness – it is named after the youngest daughter of the Bisharat family, which has resided in the same occupied West Bank community for generations.

Sumoud talks about how she loves the family’s rural lifestyle, the only life they know, surrounded by trees and animals that she plays with and looks after.

But their life has been badly disrupted by Israel destroying their home and gradually encroaching on the land they live on, threatening to push them out completely.

There are now just 53,000 Palestinians in the Jordan Valley, according to a new Al-Haq report on Israel’s colonization of the area, down from 250,000 prior to Israel’s occupation of the West Bank in 1967.

Not only has Israel prevented the return of most residents forced to leave because of the war, but in the 50 years since, the human rights group says, it has created an “increasingly unlivable environment for Palestinian communities in the Jordan Valley, often forcing them to relocate.”

Sumoud’s family and a handful of others are trying to stay in al-Hadidiya despite repeated demolitions as Israel colonizes the land around them.

Their village is home to 112 residents, but is deprived of access to water or electricity. Community members are forced to purchase water brought in by tankers to ensure a supply.

Al-Hadidiya is located in Area C, which constitutes roughly 60 percent of the West Bank. It is surrounded by three Israeli settlements: Roi and Beqaot in the west and Hemdat in the east.

Israeli politicians are increasingly calling for the permanent annexation of Area C, which would leave the majority of Palestinians in the West Bank corralled into tiny islands of territory.

Violence against women

In Jordan Valley communities like al-Hadidiya, “women are designated the responsibility to secure food and water, thus carrying the burden of compensating for food shortages, notably following a demolition,” according to a second report by Al-Haq, complementing the film and focusing on the gender violence of Israel’s policies.

Israel’s assaults, demolitions and harassment have forced the village’s residents “to live with little to no privacy, in overcrowded, unsanitary and uninhabitable environments, which do not meet the minimum conditions” for adequate housing, Al-Haq states.

One woman in al-Hadidiya recalled a particularly violent and traumatic demolition in November 2015 when Israeli soldiers assaulted her and her pregnant daughter.

“They brought female soldiers with them to attack us. I was pushed down by a female soldier and fell to the ground,” the woman said.

“My daughter, who was six months pregnant at the time, came to defend me, and she [the woman soldier] cocked the gun at us and pushed my daughter to the ground too.”

The daughter started bleeding and, according to her mother, it took more than an hour for an ambulance to arrive.

No access to healthcare

Due to Israel’s restrictions on their movement, mothers in another northern Jordan Valley community, Ein al-Qilt, can’t access adequate healthcare.

The closest clinic is about an hour away and women must make an arduous trip by donkey to the nearest public transportation.

“We truly suffer, especially during extremely hot and cold weather,” one woman told Al-Haq.
Urgent medical care is unavailable and most women are forced to give birth at home with no medical supervision.

“How can a woman walk or ride a donkey for such a long distance during labor?” another woman said, adding that she has given birth to 12 children who survived, while another eight died, as she gave birth at home, unable to reach a hospital.

Denial of schools

Israel denies Palestinians under military occupation the right to build on their own land. They are forced to build without permits and live in constant fear that their roads and homes will be demolished.

In 2015 and 2016 alone, Al-Haq documented the demolition of 240 structures and the displacement of almost 650 Jordan Valley residents, including more than 300 children.

Israel even forbids the construction of schools.

As a result, children in Ein al-Qilt are forced to attend school in Aqbat Jaber refugee camp approximately 10 kilometres away, according to Al-Haq.

But with no transportation, the children are forced to separate from their families, spending weeknights at the refugee camp and returning home on weekends. Women in the community rotate the responsibility of accompanying the children and looking after them while they are away from home.

In winter, makeshift dirt roads turn to mud, making journeys to schools and hospitals even more difficult. Israel also puts military checkpoints between these communities and the schools their children attend.

These Israeli restrictions have a disproportionate effect on girls’ education. According to Al-Haq, once they reach puberty, families tend to withdraw girls – though sometimes boys as well – from school, “out of fear for their safety, or in some cases, to comply with the social custom that renders it inappropriate and unsafe for girls to live and sleep outside of their homes and away from their parents.”

Basic needs

Israeli forces also raid and monitor areas to stop residents from rebuilding demolished structures and they confiscate their belongings.

During and after the November 2015 demolition in al-Hadidiya, Ruqaya Bisharat, Sumoud’s mother, says in the video that Israeli soldiers destroyed the family’s bread oven and television, and did not allow them to retrieve anything from the house.

Sumoud says that soldiers destroyed the house while animals were still in it, killing some doves.
The family’s clothing was also damaged with mud and rain. When Ruqaya attempted to hang them on a laundry line, soldiers destroyed that too.

“I used a plastic sheet as a carpet and cover for my children to sleep, soldiers came and pushed my kids off the plastic sheet and confiscated that too,” Ruqaya says.

When one community member in Ein al-Qilt built a restroom out of brick to give people some privacy and improved hygiene, Israeli forces ordered him to demolish it.

Ein al-Qilt has no access to electricity either, making it very difficult to preserve food. Women, who traditionally do these chores, are forced to use fire for cooking, wash clothes by hand and purchase food the same day they plan to cook it.

Sexual harassment

Israeli settlers, who surround most of these communities, are given free reign to harass Palestinians with impunity and sometimes with the protection of Israeli forces.

Settlers have delivered death threats through loudspeakers, mocked Palestinian funerals and engaged in indecent exposure to intimidate Palestinians, especially women.

“Such acts are clearly intended to create a hostile, degrading and humiliating environment, particularly for women and girls, and may amount to an act of sexual harassment, thus a form of violence against women,” the Al-Haq report states.

Despite the violence they face, these communities are determined to stay on their land.
“We have a beautiful life,” Abd al-Rahim Bisharat, Sumoud’s father, says in the film. “Our rural lifestyle is not what makes our life difficult, the occupation is what makes it difficult.”

Eastern Ghouta 'struggling to stay alive' after fifth day of bombing

At least 220 civilians killed after five days of bombardment by Syrian jets
 
Rescue workers and doctors were overwhelmed after five days of continuous bombing (Reuters)
Friday 9 February 2018

Residents trapped inside Eastern Ghouta endured a fifth day of bombings as Russian and Syrian jets continued to rain down air strikes killing at least 220 civilians. 

Continous daily bombardment since Monday overwhelmed rescue workers and forced thousands of families to seek shelter in cellars and their homes. 

World powers failed to back an appeal by UN officials this week for a month-long ceasefire to allow for desperately needed aid deliveries and medical evacuations.
From 2011 until now, there has never been the level of bombardment we've seen in the last 96 hours
- Dr Hamza, Eastern Ghouta resident 
During a few hours of calm on Friday, residents took advantage of the lull to begin clearing rubble from their doorsteps and sweeping away broken glass.

In Douma, some civilians were seen scouring for salvageable items, while others rushed to the market to find food and other supplies. 

But around mid-morning, an announcement blasted over mosque minarets warned of incoming strikes: "Surveillance plane in the sky. Clear the streets."
 
Rescue worker searching for civilians after bombardment in Douma city (Reuters)
 
Soon after, twin strikes hit the town of Erbin, where two dozen people were killed on Thursday.
Medics in the town reported being overwhelmed by the relentless bombardment.

"From 2011 until now, there has never been the level of bombardment we've seen in the last 96 hours," said Hamza, one of the doctors treating the wounded.

'Humanitarian disaster' 

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 75 people died on Thursday, three of wounds suffered the previous day.

That brought the civilian death toll since Monday to nearly 230.

UNICEF director Henrietta H. Fore said that life inside Eastern Ghouta was a "living nightmare" for the thousands of residents in the rebel enclave. 

“For children who remain trapped under siege and under wanton, heavy violence across Syria, life is a living nightmare," said Fore. "They are struggling just to stay alive.”

Eastern Ghouta is home to an estimated 400,000 people who have lived under crippling government siege since 2013.

More than 4,000 families live in basements and bunkers for fear of air strikes, according to Save the Children.
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"The siege means there is nowhere for them to escape. There must be an immediate halt to the fighting and an end to the siege," said Save the Children's Syria response director, Sonia Khush.

CARE International said the intensity of the air strikes had made it extremely difficult for relief workers to assist the needy.

"Our partners are having a hard time moving around, so how can they reach vulnerable people?" the group's communications director for Syria, Joelle Bassoul, asked.

"If there is no ceasefire, if this is all left unheard, we cannot imagine the scale of the humanitarian disaster," she said.

Eastern Ghouta is supposed to be one of four "de-escalation zones" declared last year in a bid to reduce the bloodshed.

Russia, US cross swords 

UN aid officials appealed for a month-long humanitarian truce to allow aid to be delivered and the sick and wounded brought out for treatment.

But on Thursday the Security Council failed to support the proposal.

Washington backed it, but Damascus ally Moscow dismissed it as "not realistic".

The two governments also crossed swords over US-led air strikes that hit forces allied to Damascus in eastern Syria late Wednesday and early Thursday.
 
Rescue workers overwhelmed after days of bombardment by Syrian warplanes (AFP)
 
US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said the coalition acted in self-defence after pro-Damascus forces moved on an area under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

At least 100 pro-government fighters were killed, a US military official said.

The Syrian foreign ministry condemned the bombardment as a "war crime," an accusation echoed by the Russian ambassador to the UN.

"To confront those who fight international terrorism on the ground in Syria is criminal," Vassily Nebenzia said.

Wounded pro-government fighters were taken to the military hospital in the government-controlled eastern city of Deir Ezzor.

A reporter contributing to AFP saw at least six fighters, lying on hospital beds in sparsely equipped wards.

Brief government shutdown ends as Trump signs spending bill

The government shut down for the second time in three weeks on Feb. 9.
  

President Trump ended the second government shutdown of his tenure early Friday morning, signing a sweeping spending bill hours after Congress backed the bipartisan budget deal that stands to add hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending on the military, domestic programs and disaster relief.

The 240-to-186 House vote gaveled to a close just after 5:30 a.m., nearly four hours after the Senate cleared the legislation on a vote of 71 to 28, with wide bipartisan support.

But action did not come soon enough to avoid a brief government shutdown — the second in three weeks — thanks to a one-man protest from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who delayed the Senate vote past midnight to mark his opposition to an estimated $320 billion addition to the federal budget deficit.
Trump tweeted that he signed the bill, officially ending the brief shutdown.

“Just signed Bill,” he wrote. “Our Military will now be stronger than ever before. We love and need our Military and gave them everything — and more. First time this has happened in a long time. Also means JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!”

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on Feb. 8 spoke on the Senate floor against a bipartisan budget deal and delayed a vote on the measure. 

The shutdown was so unanticipated that the Office of Management and Budget didn’t tell federal agencies to prepare for it until Thursday evening. The closure is likely to end up being brief and having only a slight impact on federal workers and the public.
The bill would reopen the government while showering hundreds of billions of dollars on defense and domestic priorities, speeding disaster aid to hurricane-hit regions, and lifting the federal borrowing limit for a year. While the legislation sets out broad budget numbers for the next two fiscal years, lawmakers face yet another deadline on March 23 — giving congressional appropriators time to write a detailed bill doling out funding to government agencies.

Still, lawmakers’ inability to keep open the government underpinning the world’s largest economy pointed to acute legislative dysfunction that has paralyzed Congress and forced the government to operate on one short-term spending bill after another since the fiscal year began Oct. 1.
Last month, the government shut down for three days in a dispute over undocumented immigrants brought to the country as kids, reopening when Senate Democrats accepted assurances from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) that he would hold a floor debate on immigration this month.
The budget deal passed Friday was meant to break the cycle of budget dysfunction — before it, too, ran into dysfunction.

Earlier in the week, the spending deal appeared primed for easy passage as McConnell and Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) unveiled it jointly on the Senate floor with a bipartisan flourish and mutual praise. But it began to run into trouble Thursday, as House conservatives rebelled over excessive deficit spending and House liberals fumed that this bill, too, failed to protect “dreamers” — undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children who face losing work permits granted by President Barack Obama under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program (DACA) but rescinded by Trump.

Then, as an expected vote approached in the Senate, Paul began to throw up roadblocks, demanding a vote on his amendment that would demonstrate how the two-year budget deal breaks past pledges to rein in federal spending.

GOP leaders refused to allow him to offer the amendment, arguing that if Paul got an amendment vote, many other senators might want one, too. Paul, in turn, refused to allow the vote to go forward, making use of Senate rules that allow individual senators to slow down proceedings that require the consent of all.

“I can’t in all good honesty, in all good faith, just look the other way because my party is now complicit in the deficits,” Paul said on the Senate floor as evening pushed into night.

Meanwhile, potentially bigger problems surfaced in the House, where liberals led by Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) were incensed that the plight of young undocumented immigrants who face the threat of deportation was not addressed in the spending bill.

Pelosi announced she would vote against the bill. And despite initially suggesting that she would not be urging fellow Democrats to follow her lead, she increasingly appeared to be doing exactly that.

At a closed-door evening meeting of House Democrats, Pelosi told lawmakers to “use our leverage,” according to one House Democrat in the room, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose the private conversation.

“We have a moment,” she said. “They don’t have the votes.”

Pelosi is under intense pressure from immigration activists and liberals in her caucus to take a stand for the dreamers because they face losing deportation protections under the Trump administration.
Supporters of these immigrants have watched in growing outrage as Democrats have failed repeatedly to achieve results for the cause. They want Democrats to block must-pass bills until action is taken to protect dreamers, even after last month’s shutdown failed to achieve anything more than a commitment from McConnell to debate the issue on the Senate floor.

Rep. Luis V. Gutiérrez (D-Ill.) said his colleagues faced risks if they voted for the bill — in his words, “to deport dreamers.”

“You all know that on the progressive side of the Democratic Party, this is not going away,” said Gutierrez.

Several House Democrats emerged from the Thursday-night caucus meeting resolved to hold the line.
“I think there’s a very strong sentiment that this is a moment that we can’t let pass,” Rep. Daniel Kildee (D-Mich.) said. “We’ve allowed these moments to pass in the past. This is a moment we can’t let pass without doing everything we can to move forward on DACA.”

But others were unconvinced. Some were skittish over another shutdown, especially with Senate Democrats largely on board with the spending deal, and others simply thought the budget deal was too good to pass up.

Rep. Terri A. Sewell (D-Ala.) cited a pair of federal health programs that were extended as part of the deal, while Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) said he simply thought an extended shutdown would be counterproductive.

“I believe harm would have flowed toward dreamers had the government shut down,” he said. “What we saw last time was that public support actually fell. And it’s an awfully hard intellectual contortion to argue against a bill where we won pretty much every battle.”

Seventy-three House Democrats voted for the bill, while 119 voted against it. Among Republicans, 167 supported it and 67 voted no.

Republican leaders, who have typically emerged from spending battles facing questions about divisions in their own party, were more than pleased to observe the Democratic split.

“They had a bad strategy when they came up with this idea in December, and they have been fractured ever since,” said Rep. Patrick T. McHenry (R-N.C.), the GOP’s chief deputy whip. “To me, it’s a fascinating display of a bipartisan win and at the same time, Democrats ripping themselves apart about a bipartisan agreement. It doesn’t make any damn sense.”

But the spectacle in the Senate, prompted entirely by Paul, tempered any Republican glee.

Hours before the shutdown took effect, a visibly irritated McConnell tried to move to a vote, but Paul objected. Then Paul launched into a lengthy floor speech deriding bipartisan complicity on deficit spending while the country goes “on and on and on, finding new wars to fight that make no sense.” The senator direly predicted a “day of reckoning,” possibly in the form of the collapse of the stock market.

As the hours ticked on, Paul repeatedly refused to consent to allowing the vote to happen, as lawmakers and aides of both parties grew increasingly annoyed at him.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), leaving the floor after an unsuccessful attempt to curtail Paul’s standoff, called the gambit “grossly irresponsible” and said that leaders would not entertain his demand for a vote.

“Why reward bad behavior?” Cornyn said.

Senate leaders remained confident all along that the spending deal would pass easily in the end, and it did. But without an agreement among all senators on timing, the voting was delayed until 1 a.m., when the time allotted for debate expired. By then, the government had been shut down for an hour.
Senators of both parties were left fuming, with most of their ire directed toward Paul.

“He has mastered the art of ticking off his colleagues,” said Sen. Christopher A. Coons (D-Del.).
“It’s a colossal waste of everybody’s time,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). Of Paul, Thune said, “He never gets a result.”

Paul himself made no apologies as he delivered one floor speech after another, casting himself as a lone defender of fiscal austerity, despite having voted in December for a tax bill that added at least $1 trillion to the debt.

House conservatives also objected to the enormous increase in federal spending, most of which would be piled onto the deficit with minimal attempts to offset it. But they were outweighed by Republicans eager to deliver the Pentagon funding that Trump had long demanded.

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) highlighted the military funding boost Thursday ahead of the vote and predicted the bill would pass on a bipartisan basis. “There is widespread agreement in both parties that we have cut the military too much, that our service members are suffering as a result, and that we need to do better,” he said.

The bill’s impact ranges far beyond the military — renewing several large health-care programs, suspending the national debt limit for a year and extending billions of dollars of expiring tax breaks. The cost of those provisions exceeds $560 billion, though lawmakers included some revenue-raising offsets.

In comparison, the 2009 fiscal stimulus bill passed at the bottom of a global recession under Obama was estimated to cost $787 billion over 10 years. Republicans were nearly unanimous in opposing that measure in their clamor for fiscal restraint in the face of growing deficits — demands largely drowned out now in the Trump era.

This spending bill, proposed amid an economic boom, could be the last major piece of legislation passed before November’s midterm elections, barring a breakthrough on the thorny immigration debate.

Under the deal, existing spending limits would be raised by a combined $296 billion through 2019. The caps were put in place in 2011 after a fiscal showdown between Obama and GOP congressional leaders who demanded spending austerity.

The agreement includes an additional $160 billion in uncapped funding for overseas military and State Department operations, continuing a costly line item that dates back to the immediate response to the 2001 terrorist attacks. And about $90 billion more would be spent on disaster aid for victims of recent hurricanes and wildfires. Tax provisions would add another $17 billion to the cost of the bill.

The spending is partially offset through an increase in customs and immigration fees, as well as sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and other accounting maneuvers. Still, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the package is set to add $320 billion to the budget deficit over the coming decade.

David Weigel, Ed O’Keefe, Damian Paletta and Sean Sullivan contributed to this report.

Trump’s Big Buyback Bamboozle

Robert Reich. Photo by Danorton, Wikipedia Commons.


THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2018

Trump’s promise that corporations will use his giant new tax cut to make new investments and raise workers’ wages is proving to be about as truthful as his promise to release his tax returns.

The results are coming in, and guess what? Almost all the extra money is going into stock buybacks. Since the tax cut became law, buy-backs have surged to $88.6 billion. That’s more than double the amount of buybacks in the same period last year, according to data provided by Birinyi Associates.

Compare this to the paltry $2.5 billion of employee bonuses corporations say they’ll dispense in response to the tax law, and you see the bonuses for what they are – a small fig leaf to disguise the big buybacks.

If anything, the current tumult in the stock market will fuel even more buybacks.
Stock buybacks are corporate purchases of their own shares of stock. Corporations do this to artificially prop up their share prices.

Buybacks are the corporate equivalent of steroids. They may make shareholders feel better than otherwise, but nothing really changes.

Money spent on buybacks isn’t reinvested in new equipment, research, or factories. Buybacks don’t add jobs or raise wages. They don’t increase productivity. They don’t grow the American economy.

Yet CEOs love buybacks because most CEO pay is now in shares of stock and stock options rather than cash. So when share prices go up, executives reap a bonanza.

At the same time, the value of CEO pay from previous years also rises, in what amounts to a retroactive (and off the books) pay increase – on top of their already humongous compensation packages.

Big investors also love buybacks because they increase the value of their stock portfolios. Now that the richest 10 percent of Americans own 84 percent of all shares of stock (up from 77 percent at the turn of the century), this means even more wealth at the top.

Buybacks used to be illegal. The Securities and Exchange considered them unlawful means of manipulating stock prices, in violation of the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934.

In those days, the typical corporation put about half its profits into research and development, plant and equipment, worker retraining, additional jobs, and higher wages.

But under Ronald Reagan, who rhapsodized about the “magic of the market,” the SEC legalized buybacks.

After that, buybacks took off. Just in the past decade, 94 percentof corporate profits have been devoted to buybacks and dividends, according to researchers at the Academic-Industry Research Network.

Last year, big American corporations spent a record $780 billion buying back their shares of stock.
And that was before the new tax law.

Put another way, the new tax law is giving America’s wealthy not one but two big windfalls: They stand to gain the most from the tax cuts for individuals, and  they’re the big winners from the tax cuts for corporations.

This isn’t just unfair. It’s also bad for the economy as a whole. Corporations don’t invest because they get tax cuts. They invest because they expect that customers will buy more of their goods and services.

This brings us to the underlying problem. Companies haven’t been investing – and have been using their profits to buy back their stock instead – because they doubt their investments will pay off in additional sales.

That’s because most economic gains have been going to the wealthy, and the wealthy spend a far smaller percent of their income than the middle class and the poor. When most gains go to the top, there’s not enough demand to justify a lot of new investment.

Which also means that as long as public policies are tilted to the benefit of those at the top – as is Trump’s tax cut, along with Reagan’s legalization of stock buybacks – we’re not going to see much economic growth.

We’re just going to have more buybacks and more inequality.

Japan’s Own Belt and Road

Tokyo is ramping up international partnerships and investments to offer an alternative to Beijing’s signature foreign-policy project.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prior to a bilateral meeting in Ahmedabad, India, on Sept. 14, 2017. (Prakash Singh/AFP/Getty Images) 

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For the first time in 15 years, Japan’s foreign minister last month paid a visit to the tiny island nation of Sri Lanka, shepherding a dozens-strong delegation of business leaders eager to deepen economic ties between the two countries after a year of increasing security cooperation.

The visit underlined how Sri Lanka is turning into a microcosm of the sharpening geopolitical competition between Japan and China. Sri Lanka, after Pakistan, is one of the clearest examples of how China’s ambitious infrastructure development plans — known as the Belt and Road Initiative — are spooking neighbors who worry about Beijing’s rapidly increasing influence and military reach. Those fears were made manifest late last year, when Sri Lanka handed over the port of Hambantota to China to cover its debts to Beijing.

The kerfuffle over Hambantota helps explain why Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono made a point of ending his visit with a tour of Sri Lanka’s other big port, Colombo, announcing plans to help build a natural gas import terminal. It was just one of a whirlwind of Japanese visits and investment announcements from Southeast Asia to Pakistan to the Baltics in recent months.

Japan, faced with the abrupt disengagement of an inward-looking United States under President Donald Trump, now finds itself playing the leading role in pushing back against China’s grand plans to extend its influence throughout Asia and into Europe.

To do so, Tokyo is increasingly joining up with other countries and especially India, launching a $200 billion infrastructure plan, and even boosting its military efforts in the broader Indian Ocean area in what is seen as a deliberate bid to counter Beijing’s growing heft. The effort even extends as far afield as Eastern and Central Europe, where Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a historic visit just last month.

“Abe has been very active in proposing an alternative to China in general and the Belt and Road in particular,” said Céline Pajon, a Japan expert at the French Institute of International Relations. “It serves to complicate China’s strategic calculus and also maintain a multipolar world as much as possible.”

Since World War II, Japan has played a largely secondary role to the United States in Asia, sheltering under the American security umbrella while focusing on business. But now that Washington has bailed out of the single biggest project meant to push back against China’s growing influence in Asia — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact — Japan has been forced in many ways to pick up the slack.

Abe appears to be embracing this role. Both times he has led Japan — from 2006 to 2007 and again since 2012 — he has sought to make Tokyo a bigger player on the regional stage, even against domestic opposition. In 2016, he launched his own version of a development and security plan for Asia, designed as an explicit alternative to China’s vision. That includes a deliberate focus on building “quality” infrastructure, a dig at the perceived flaws of Chinese-built projects.

“These trends were around before Trump,” said Robert Dujarric, the director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University Japan.

But they’ve been kicked into overdrive in part to “compensate for a lack of U.S. leadership,” he said.
Dujarric called Japan’s central and surprising role in salvaging the TPP even without U.S. participation “exhibit A.”

That new role is crystallized in Japan’s growing strategic partnership with India. The two are working together to develop much-needed power plants, railroads, and port facilities in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and on Indian Ocean islands.

More ambitiously, they’re jointly promoting something called the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, an outgrowth of Abe’s own plan meant to deepen the economic connections between Africa and South and Southeast Asia. Not coincidentally, it’s positioned as an alternative to China’s own leapfrogging across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.

“Japan is concerned about a rising Chinese profile beyond the Western Pacific, and India is equally concerned about the strategic implications of China’s commercial engagements in its neighborhood,” said Darshana Baruah of Carnegie India. “These projects are aimed at creating an alternative to China’s Belt and Road.”

In many ways, the uptick in Japanese-led plans to develop Asia — through multibillion-dollar efforts including the Japan Infrastructure Initiative and the Asian Development Bank — is simply an extension of decades of Japanese overseas assistance and investment in the region.

What’s markedly new is Japan’s effort to extend its economic influence much further afield, precisely to places such as Central and Eastern Europe that have become a focus of Beijing’s Belt and Road project over the past year. Abe’s visit in January to the Baltics and three other Eastern European nations — the first ever by a Japanese prime minister — was meant to drum up support for the Japan-EU trade deal inked last year. But his visit also included a stop in Serbia — a country that isn’t in the EU but which is squarely in the crosshairs of China’s efforts to win influence through investment.

“The China factor seems to be a motivation for Japan in Eastern Europe,” said Frans-Paul van der Putten of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. “Japan has been competing with China in Asia, and that competition is expanding to other areas.”

Not everybody is convinced that Japan is playing a spoiler role against the Belt and Road, especially since Tokyo often makes ambiguous noises about “welcoming” Chinese investment that could benefit the region as a whole. Japan — if not India — even suggests periodically it could end up joining the Belt and Road at some point. Seen from Islamabad, the biggest beneficiary of the Belt and Road thanks to the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), not even Japan and India’s partnership represents a serious threat.

“India and Japan can collaborate, but the Belt and Road is too big to be countered by them, and that is why they are keeping open the option to join sooner or later,” said Ahmad Rashid Malik, the director of the China-Pakistan Study Centre at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.

Foreign Minister Kono expressed interest in the CPEC when he made a rare trek to Islamabad last month, Malik said, while big economic actors such as the Japan External Trade Organization and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation have been bullish on more investments there. “Japan is not opposing the CPEC.”

Ultimately, the bigger question is how sustainable Japan’s push for a leading role will prove — and if that will leave the door ajar for China after all. Abe won’t be prime minister forever, and it’s not clear how deep his more muscular vision of Japan’s place in the world has penetrated the country’s political culture.

More to the point, Japan — saddled with a sluggish economy, massive debt, and an aging and shrinking population — simply doesn’t have the economic or diplomatic resources to replace the United States in Asia, Dujarric said. That could limit its role to a very valuable firebreak, until Washington sorts out whether it really wants to retreat or re-engage with the world.

“If Trump is just a temporary ailment,” Dujarric said, “Japan can serve as a major Band-Aid until sanity returns to the U.S.”