Improving the quality of policy proposals in the Budget

Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera


Monday, 20 November 2017 


Every Budget Speech includes complex policy measures. Given the traditions associated with the Budget Speech, it is not possible to conduct public consultations on each of the measures beforehand. But without extensive consultation and input from persons with deep subject knowledge, the proposals will be half-baked. They are likely to contain significant errors, may not achieve the stated objectives and worst of all may cause harm.

Ideally, teams of officials in the line ministries as well as in the ministry or ministries responsible for overall coordination (e.g., Ministry of National Policies and Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance) will be permanently engaged in research on solutions to various policy problems. Their findings will be easily retrievable by senior policymakers on occasions when they have to respond to a crisis or demand of some kind or have to prepare a Budget Speech or brief a new Minister. These occasions are described in the academic literature as policy windows.

Lack of knowledge within Government

Unfortunately, this ideal scenario is unlikely under the conditions currently prevailing within Government in Sri Lanka. Senior officials are consumed by mundane matters and ceremonies. With a few exceptions, most are not attuned to research or even to systematic data collection and synthesis.

The proposal included in the 2018 Budget Speech to impose a levy of Rs. 200,000 per mobile antenna tower, per month, is a good example.

The Minister is ill-informed even on the number of towers that are to be subject to the levy. In Parliament he had stated that there are 50,000 towers. If Rs. 2.4 million is collected annually from 50,000 towers, the yield will be Rs. 120 billion, eight times what the Budget Speech states is the expected yield from both the tower levy and the tax on bulk SMS, Rs. 15 billion.

The tower levy is unlikely to result in the quick consolidation of antennae to fewer towers because tower sharing is already happening and in most cases, mounting additional antennae on existing towers is not practically possible because of the weight they (or the underlying structures) have been designed to carry. The likely outcome is the shutting down of marginal towers, harming the quality of service in the cities and loss of service in some rural areas.

The evidence suggests that the drafters of the speech failed even to consult the Telecom Regulatory Commission, which is the governing body with the relevant expertise. Ignorance of technology is rife. According to a Minister who has an engineering degree, a total of nine towers can carry all mobile telecom signals in Sri Lanka.

The claim that fewer towers will yield health benefits is also fallacious. The fact that cellular networks require a large number of low-power base-transceiver stations because the same frequencies are reused in non-adjacent cells appears to have been missed by those who grew up in the age of tall analogue broadcast towers that transmitted at full power.

A second-best solution

Until such time as we can reform the administrative service and remedy the ignorance of our ministers, what can be done to avoid the embarrassment of half-baked policy measures that have to be walked back or quietly buried when stakeholders and outside experts demonstrate their flaws?

The solution is for think tanks to conduct research on various policy options and make available their findings to policymakers in easily absorbable forms. And for policymakers to be open to such research.

The 2018 Budget’s proposal contains a proposal that exemplifies the elements of workable solution:”Farmers are constantly at the mercy of the weather gods and successive governments have been doling out funds to the farmers whenever there has been a drought or floods in an indiscriminate manner. It is in this context that the weather indexed insurance scheme has been designed. The insurance cover will be a minimum of Rs. 40,000 per acre for six crops including paddy and other five emerging crops such as maize, soya, big onion, potato and chilli. This will be a contributory scheme with the premium being borne by both the farmer and the Government.

The Government will invest Rs. 3,000 million in 2018. To support such ventures we will also upgrade the Department of Meteorology with state-of-the-art technology and elevate the capacity of the personnel.

Weather-indexed crop insurance is gaining acceptance in countries such as India, Kenya and Ethiopia as an alternative to indemnity-based crop insurance. It is new to Sri Lanka. The payout in the index-based form is based on a parameter such as rainfall. It does away with field assessments and closes off opportunities for extracting bribes. It is characterised by low transaction costs and addresses the moral-hazard and adverse-selection problems associated with indemnity-based insurance.


The language in the Budget Speech did not emerge fully formed from within the Finance Ministry. Late last year, the Institute of Policy Studies posted an entry in its ‘Talking Economics’ blog describing the policy instrument and identifying problems such as the lack of weather stations and delays in reporting. In November 2016 and January 2017 local newspapers carried reports on IPS’ work on weather-indexed insurance. Possibly more coverage occurred in electronic media and the Sinhala press. The message got through.

The very fact that Rs. 200 million is to be allocated to the Department of Meteorology for upgrading its technical and human capabilities is indicative that the research had impact. The fact that the proposal is for six crops at the outset suggests that the need to start small and learn from the first few seasons has been internalised.

Why can we not have more of these successes? More policy-relevant research being conducted by think tanks and greater receptivity to policy research on the part of Government officials and politicians would shield the Government from much embarrassment and save the taxpayer a lot of money.

LIRNEasia, the think tank I am associated with, may be able to contribute to effective implementation of weather-indexed crop insurance. In collaboration with the University of Moratuwa, we are in the process of obtaining funds for research on how to tell localised weather from the mobile networks using a method proven in the Netherlands and Israel. It will use the rain-induced attenuation of microwave signals among the ubiquitous mobile antenna towers (that the Government is trying to shut down) to supplement the rainfall data from conventional weather stations.

In an ideal world, a small part of the Rs. 200 million allocated for buying equipment for the Department of Meteorology would be used to support this kind of direct policy-relevant research. But the research will be done and the findings shared with policymakers, even in the non-ideal world we live in.

Time to turn a new page

2017-11-20

The latest budget is out, and the electronic media is going full-throttle interviewing the ‘man and woman on the street’ to get his and her opinion. He or she is indeed a valid voice in the situation, they are the ones who are directly affected by the ‘mangala mohotha’ of Minister Samaraweera. He sure is on a high and the budget has triggered a tendril of hope among the masses, maybe it could be termed as a beginning of a ‘new page,’ which is so badly needed in today’s Sri Lanka. Of course, the proof of the pudding is yet to come, but at least for the moment we do have a new pudding to eat.
There has been a fair share of distrusts and negativity about the proposed budget. especially from those who rode bicycles to the parliament. There are others, non-political, who see all this as another mirage of unreality. They too could be right, after all, we did have a pocket full of promises that were made at the onset of the Yahapalanaya that simply fizzled out leaving a sky-wide void of disappointment which closely matched the misgivings of the previous regime.   

That being the case, amidst these pluses and minuses in the budget equation, let us hope Minister Mangala is getting off the blocks turning a new page to usher a new dawn.
It was a week ago, I wrote that all our woes come from Diyawanna-Oya. People are still scrambling to get fuel into their empty tanks and queuing up around petrol stations. We must be grateful that the lines are now shorter, and things seem to be moving on. This is certainly an incident that has left a big dent in the minds of the people and drained what little confidence they had in the system that governs us. The fact remains crystal clear that someone made a mistake. There should be no cheering squads for not accepting the fuel that sailed into the harbour that was not up to specifications. The rejection of that shipment was the ‘lo and behold’ duty of the ministry in question. The ‘Mia Culpa’ comes from the fact that there were no adequate reserves to handle a simple shipment that went sour. Someone did blunder in this instance and that is a foregone conclusion. As I write this article, Minister Sarath Amunugama leads a special team investigating the fuel crisis. Once the facts are found out on what went wrong, then only can the leaks be plugged to avoid a repetition. Let’s hope this is a new page we are turning without sweeping the dirt under the all-covering Diyawanna-Oya carpet.   

Relative to pages being turned, let’s look at a mega happening that took place recently. Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha Thera’s second death anniversary was sacredly commemorated recently. He was the perfect patriot and the greatest strength this country has had as a deterrent to corruption and bad governance. During the ceremony there were two excellent speeches that addressed the current calamities of the country. One was by Prof. Sarath Wijesooriya which was followed by an address by President Maithripala Sirisena. Prof. Wijesooriya spoke mainly on the valiant efforts made by the late prelate to stem the tide of the rulers of that time and bring in a change which was named the Yahapalanaya. He then went on to make a critical analysis of the current regime, the pros and cons of promises made and promises broken. The renowned civil activist wasn’t mincing any words and laid it all bare in front of the gathering which included President Sirisena himself. It was freedom of speech and an erudite activist having the courage to voice the truth in matters that matter most.  

There has been a fair share of distrusts and negativity about the proposed budget

Recent fuel crisis has left a big dent in the minds of people

Ven. Sobitha was a perfect patriot and the greatest strength this country had

As much as there are culprits, there are honest men who occupy the benches of Parliament

The law is for everybody,
it should apply to all

President Sirisena on his turn spoke glowingly of the service rendered by the late Sobitha Thera and praised him for his invaluable commitment and wisdom to bring about a regime change in 2015. It was a sincere appreciation that had gratitude laced in every syllable he uttered. Then he moved on to the current political situation and came out strong to state his position as the leader of the coalition Government and its ramifications. “Have we done what we were supposed to do?” That was the theme. “Have we curbed corruption? “Have we brought to justice those who broke the law of the land?” Such were the questions he aimed at himself and at those who ruled along with him. Hard challenges for the ‘powers that be’, more than two years wasted playing ‘Hora Police’ where it was difficult to establish who was a hora and who would be the police.   

That is politics for you. The president vehemently made it clear that he would do his utmost to make things right irrespective of who was guilty. “The law is for everybody, it should apply to all and sundry with the same equality and intensity.”
Maybe the President is turning a new page looking for changes for the better. He must be well-aware that time sure is in short-supply before the elections arrive in 2020. Maybe he’s had enough of the nonsense that has been the hallmark of some who hold power in Diyawanna-Oya. As much as there are culprits there are honest men too who occupy the benches of the Parliament. That fact could be the catalyst to bring about a much-needed change in the culture of governance, which has hitherto given birth to fledgling vultures of all sizes and shades, who have brought about the annihilation of our beloved homeland. 
Will we really see a change in the two years that remain before we go to the polls again? Will those who abused power and robbed the country of its meagre resources of prosperity be brought to justice? Or will history repeat itself, where if one is politically connected, he is generally exempted from every sin.

Avoiding Another Gintota – Lessons To Be Learnt!

By Mohamed Harees –20November 2017

‘That man does not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach’ ~ (Case of Voluntary Ignorance in Collected Essays (1959).

Reports of the Gintota communal violence reached even beyond the borders of Sri Lanka. Under various headings,  New York Times , BBC, Xinhua , NDTV, Indian Express and many global news-agencies covered the story in a positive manner – of how a major danger waiting to happen was averted, by and large due to the timely intervention of the government, security forces, STF and the Police. Thankfully, the confrontations between the usually peaceful Sinhala and the Muslim communities did not flare up further to become another Aluthgama. Law and Order Minister Sagala Ratnayaka thanked everyone who “acted with responsibility to avoid a bloodbath”. However, as Keerthi Tennakoon, of Sri Lanka Human Rights Centre says,  this was not a Sinhala Muslim riot but part of regional and national political clashes to gain dominance. Thus, failure of all of us whether Sinhala or Muslim to understand these racist designs behind the scene in the real light, will lead to more minor clashes of this sort being branded  as communal riots and pollute the peaceful relationships between communities, by vested parties purely to gain political gain.

Many culprits have been arrested, responsible for turning basically a minor incident into a major flare-up with  communal overtones and they should be dealt with sternly under the law without fear or favour. Much damage was caused to property and many were injured in the process. However the worse damage was caused to the peaceful, mind-set of the and relationships between the communities who have been living in harmony in the past. Thus, there is much work to be done to repair the broken  hearts and minds, and to restore the lost trust and confidence to live again as friendly neighbours as they once were, more than just compensating for the material losses of the victims. Many apt lessons are there to be learnt, if only one wants to! 

1. Starts with a minor incident, and inability to treat at source: As in any racist conflict of this nature, it all starts with a minor incident. I recall in 1982,  an argument between two drunken friends – One Sinhala and one Muslim in Galle aggravated to become a fully blown communal violence, shattering the peace and harmony among two peaceful communities which led to many deaths and severe destruction to property. It took a long time to mend the hearts and minds of the people. In Aluthgama too, once again the start up was also a minor incident which could have been settled amicably at a local level.  Even the start-up to the Gintota violence too was a minor bike incident. However, communities were woefully unaware of the racist vultures operating above them to arouse their base racist instincts and emotions to make these minor incidents mere opportunities to gain political capital.   

There should therefore be more awareness building at the local level ( school, temple/mosque level) to build more maturity among local communities without falling prey to the machinations of these lowly racist elements. Further. the local community/ religious leaders should take charge and intervene on time to avoid any aggravation as we have seen in the above riots. Otherwise, outside forces will barge in for parochial and political gains and take control. Police too has a major role to play in an even handed manner.   

2. Vested Interests fishing in troubled waters : In all these cases, as stated, many other vicious elements and groups with vested interests from outside, got involved,  to make a hill out of a molehill, exaggerating the issue, giving racist favour, hijacking all forms of discussions and imposing their will, thereby not allowing local parties to discuss and find an amicable settlement  among themselves. In Galle in 1982 , thankfully, a leading Muslim organization-Galle Muslim Cultural Association, along with the mosque trustees in the areas took a leading role and had discussions with the Maha Sangha and Sinhala community leaders at the local level, which paved the way for the return to normalcy. All matters were dealt with maturity and according to law. Many attempts to widen the conflict was averted thanks to the maturity of the community leaders.  

However, in the case of Aluthgama. we saw how BBS rogue monks and goons came from outside and virtually hijacked all efforts to bring some sanity at the local level. Many affected residents in Dharga Town also vouched that those who attacked came from outside. This was the same situation in Gintota too where outside troublemakers such as Mahason Balakaya and the likes brought in goons from Dadalla. Boosa and Rathgama to create more problems in the area.

It is therefore the duty of the local community and religious leaders as well as the Police to ensure that these outside forces are kept at bay without infiltrating into the affected areas to arouse religious tensions  for their own gains.

3. Will of the Government in power and the Forces: We saw in 2014 in Aluthgama, how the then government not only failed to extinguish the communal fires which were raging in a full blown manner, both MR as well as Gota by their patronage also ‘encouraged’ the perpetrators through word and deed. In fact the MR government also unsuccessfully tried to portray the victims as the perpetrators of the tragedy at the Global Human Rights Council meeting.

However, there were many instances  that this government too began to play into the tunes of the anti-Muslim hate lobbies.However, in this instance all credit to the Government of the day and the politicians! In the case of Gintota, they acted with maturity and vision and prompt action was taken to quell the riots without allowing the goons and groups from outside to continue fishing  in troubled waters. Besides, the STF, the tri-forces and the Police too acted with insight and even handedness to control the explosive situation (of course there were cases reported of partisan attitudes which will have to be looked into). This prevented a possible refugee influx too, as we saw in the Aluthgama situation.

It is imperative that the Police deal with the culprits in a firm manner without any racial  considerations and also take action to arrest all those extremist leaders who came from outside to cause trouble. Serious allegations were levelled against the Police and STF during Aluthgama riots for failing act in a just manner. Further, the CID initiate an inquiry about the groups and forces behind the scene which instigated the riots. in order to avoid other places becoming another Gintota and even Aluthgama. 

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Gintota clashes 19 remanded Govt on desperate mission to arrest extremists

By Sulochana Ramiah Mohan and Galle Correspondent T. Withanawasam-2017-11-19

Following last Friday's late night riots in Gintota, the Government has launched a desperate mission to clampdown on extremists who are using social media networks to incite violence in the country and has geared itself up to arrest violators under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) Act, No. 56 of 2007.

The 19 suspects who were arrested will also be dealt with under the ICCPR Act, Police spokesman SP Ruwan Gunasekera said.

The Government has also informed its intelligence unit to monitor social media sites where personal videos are openly being uploaded in a bid to incite racial and religious hatred.

"We know there are several videos being uploaded by certain extremist groups wanting to disturb the peace of this country. We are now investigating those who are inciting racial and religious extremism using the social media and will soon take legal action against them too," he said.

SP Gunasekera added that they will hunt down and arrest inciters under the ICCPR Act and produce them in Court.

The Government, on seeing the continuous fake news and rumours spreading on social networks, on the Gintota incident, in order to keep the situation under control for the second day, too, had imposed curfew from last night (18) till today morning 9 a.m. (19) in Kurunduwatte, Mahapugala, Welipitimodera, and Ukwatte of the Gintota GS Division.

The Government beefed up security, using the armed forces and special Police teams, from the 17th night, following a minor accident, involving motorists and a trishaw that unexpectedly turned the atmosphere in Gintota violent.

SP Gunesekara told the media in Galle last evening that religious and racial extremisms caused the violence and not the minor accident that occurred prior to that. He also noted that the violence was politically motivated because mobs from various other villages gathered in Gintota over the misunderstandings that prevailed between the two parties that have been clashing from 16 November.
He said others exploited the accident that occurred in Vithanegama to suit their own agendas. They were politically and racially motivated.

Following that minor clash right after the accident, three persons were arrested and on the 17th they were produced before the Galle Magistrate and the investigation is in progress, noted the SP.
While they were ordered to be in remand custody till 20 November, again a tense situation erupted at about 7p.m. on the 17th. It was caused by another extremist group, following which security was beefed up in Gintota.

According to Police, five persons were hospitalized with minor injuries and the Police had been receiving complaints that several houses, shops and vehicles had been damaged in the violence.
SP Gunesekara said after several complaints had been lodged with the Police, they were able to arrest a total of 19 suspects involved in triggering violence. He said they were produced before the Galle Magistrate and remanded till 30 November.

The Government deployed additional Police battalions, the Police Special Task Force, the anti-riot squad and the military on the 17th night to bring the situation under control.

Yesterday morning, Minister of Home Affairs Vajira Abeywardane met Galagoda Atthey Gnanasara Thera at the Gintota Tuparama Temple to explain the situation.

Prior to the meeting, the Minister met several religious leaders and officials at the District Secretariat and urged them to be aware of the situation because unscrupulous elements are triggering communal disharmony in the country.

Law and Order Minister Sagala Ratnayaka yesterday said the tense situation that occurred in Gintota has been completely brought under control.

The Minister noted some political groups are now on a desperate mission to turn this minor brawl into a Sinhala-Muslim clash and he urged the public not to be misled by their false propaganda. "The same elements are now in the process of disseminating false videos and news on social media platforms to stir up communal sentiments. I reiterate that stern action will be taken against everyone, irrespective of their positions and political affiliations, attempting to resort to racist propaganda.
The same will apply to the rumour-mongers trying to capitalize on this opportunity to achieve petty political gains," the Minister asserted.

According to Police media unit, the late Friday mob attack was due to nasty social media notices, comments and fake messages posted.

SP Gunasekara said a woman was also arrested for spreading rumours that a Buddhist temple was about to be attacked by members of another community.

Only LG elections can prevent a Sirisena dictatorship

by C.A.Chandraprema-November 18, 2017

The incident at Gintota in the Galle district appears to be at least on the face of it, a private dispute that got out of hand. The Aluthgama incident in 2014 was also sparked off in a similar way. When things begin to go wrong, the very elements seem to conspire to get things going in the wrong direction. The developments in the Galle district on Friday night was perhaps not unexpected given the developments on the political front in the past few weeks. Members of the Joint Opposition have been saying for months if not years that if this government is unable to prevent an election from being held, there would be a communal riot to head off the elections. Some months ago, we saw such a situation developing with petrol bombs being thrown at mosques.

That sudden flare up ended with Gnanasara Thera setting an all time record being granted bail on three occasions in a single day and even having his charges amended. The next week will bring the simmering showdown between the two factions of the government to a critical point, with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to appear before the bond commission on Monday and a demonstration being organized by the UNP in Colombo against the Bond Commission on the same day. Apart from the PM’s impending appearance before the commission, the telephone records which show that Arjun Aloysius was in contact with members of COPE during the inquiry has done immense damage to the UNP.

The attempt by the Sirisena faction of the SLFP to get the elections postponed through litigation went awry with the identities of the persons who had petitioned the Appeal Court asking for an enjoining order on the gazette relating to the delimitation of local government wards being revealed. That the UNP has become an intervenient in the case asking that the elections not be postponed shows that they are not behind this latest move. Indeed from the earliest days of yahapalana rule, it was the Sirisena faction of the SLFP that was fighting shy of elections – not so much the UNP. At a certain point, especially when it came to holding elections to the Sabaragamuwa, NCP and Eastern Provincial Councils, the UNP also got the jitters. That is why they all cooperated in getting those elections postponed.

After having literally moved heaven and earth to get the provincial council elections postponed, it just does not make sense to now have the local government elections in January. The reason why the UNP decided to go ahead and have the elections even at the risk of an embarrassing performance, it was obviously to politically finish off Sirisena before the he finishes off the UNP. The fact that Maithri Gunaratne’s newly formed United National Freedom Front has also joined as an intervenient in the case filed in the Appeal Court shows that they are not a fifth column of the SLFP Sirisena faction as originally thought by many within the UNP but an independent entity that is seeking to carve out a niche for itself. With the PM appearing before the bond commission, we are now seeing the unraveling of the process that began in 2014 against the Rajapaksa government.

Remembering

Robespierre’s end

What we are now seeing is a drama worthy of a Shakespearean play. This writer has read how during the Stalinist purges in Russia one set of purged officials were tortured and executed by their successors only for the torturers and executioners of today to fall victim later to the very repression machine they had created. The man who led the great terror during the French revolution Maximilian Robespierre was himself executed in exactly the same manner and by the same executioner that he had kept busy with countless beheadings of real or perceived enemies of the revolution. This is a recurring theme in history but this writer never thought he would actually see such a process taking place in real life. The term ‘hoist with your own petard’ is now beginning to acquire a new meaning.

The conspiracy of the Sirisena group is obviously to render the UNP rudderless before the Presidential elections and for Sirisena to become the UNP’s presidential candidate once again. This writer said it earlier, and the subsequent events have confirmed that this is indeed what is happening. Readers should understand that there is now less than two years for the next presidential election process to start. The 19th Amendment reduced the term of the President to five years and Article 30(2) of the Constitution now reads as follows – "The President of the Republic shall be elected by the People and shall hold office for a term of five years". Yahapalana ministers have been arguing that even though the term of the President has been reduced by the 19th Amendment, that applies only to future Presidents and that since Maithripala Sirisena was originally elected for a six year term, he will serve out that term before the next Presidential election is held.

Even though Sirisena was originally elected for a six year term, the 19th Amendment reduced the term of the President to five years and Section 49(1)(b) of the transitional provisions of the 19th Amendment clearly states that  "For the avoidance of doubt it is hereby declared that, the persons holding office respectively, as the President and Prime Minister on the day preceding April 22, 2015 shall continue to hold such office after such date, subject to the provisions of the Constitution as amended by this Act…" The above mentioned provisions of the 19th Amendment have to be read together with Article 31(3) of the constitution which goes as follows -  "The poll for the election of the President shall be taken not less than one month and not more than two months before the expiration of the term of office of the President in office". Thus, according to the provisions introduced by the 19th Amendment, Maithripala Sirisena’s term as President ends on January 9, 2020. When Article 31(3) of the Constitution is applied to this date, the next Presidential election has to be held between 9 November and 9 December 2019.

This is why the two partners in the government are now at each other’s throats. Sirisena’s game plan appeared to be to destroy all possible contenders both within and outside the government so that by the time the next presidential election comes around, only he will be left standing. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s appearance before the Bond Commission will achieve part of that. The entire UNP has been seriously undermined by the revelations of phone conversations between COPE members and Arjun Aloysius, and they are hardly in any position now to be able to face a presidential election.   The Chairman, General Secretary, Assistant Leader and Leader of the UNP have been hauled before the Bond Commission and now several State Ministers, Deputy Ministers and backbenchers have also been implicated. Never before has any political party been made to suffer such ignominy.

Green frog in the cooking pot

Furthermore, once the report of the Bond Commission is in his hands, Sirisena will have a weapon to use against the UNP. Hence there is a need for the UNP to checkmate him with the holding of the local government elections. While the UNP was thus being assailed by Sirisena, the UNP itself was making plans to set up special courts to try members of the former regime accused of corruption so that they could be put in jail before the next presidential election. A decision was made at the UNP Working Committee to set up these special courts and to expedite cases against members of the former regime. This must be the first time in Sri Lankan history that the decision making body of a political party is deciding on changes to the courts structure of the country. Since the purpose of this change in the courts structure is to hear cases against political rivals, that amount to a clear politicization of the administration of justice. 

While the UNP is busy making plans to finish off their political rivals, they themselves are being finished off by their allies. The biggest irony is that the UNP that is behind this move to persecute their political enemies, are themselves on the dock for massive corruption in a case that is now clearer than any corruption probe ever held before in this country. All this is a result of the cycle of betrayal, treachery, conspiracy and deceit that started before the Presidential elections of 2015. The UNP is like that apocryphal frog being cooked in a pot over a slow fire. What is supposed to happen is that since the frog changes its body temperature to suit its environment and as the heat in the pot increases, the frog keeps increasing its body temperature to keep up and ultimately dies without knowing what happened. That seems to be exactly what is going to happen to the UNP.

Having a demonstration against the Bond Commission on the day that the UNP leader is being brought before it serves no purpose except to portray the UNP in a bad light for trying to protest against an investigation that has unearthed so much undeniable evidence. This is one of the cleanest investigations ever held in this country. It should be noted that not a single person has been arrested so far in the bond investigation. All the evidence that has been unearthed is based on technology or on witness statements given voluntarily. Usually a yahapalana investigation takes the form of arresting someone and keeping him in jail or threatening to do so until he says something that implicates the main target. That in fact is how the FCID which is controlled by the UNP carried out the Malwana mansion investigation. This is a remarkably effective method.

In the Malawana case, even though its owner originally claimed the property as his, later he said that the property was not his, and he even wrote to the Inland Revenue Department asking for a refund of the income tax he had paid over a number of years for the money used to build the house which he had declared as his house to the IRD! The UNP could have given Torquemada, the Grand Inquisitor a run for his money. Even while the UNP is engaged in perpetrating such horrors, they themselves are being slowly cooked to a finish by the bond commission. This is now a race against time. The UNP needs the local government election to put an end to Sirisena’s political future before he puts an end to theirs.

The Joint Opposition for its part needs the local government election in order to effect a change in the political situation firstly to prevent Sirisena from taking disciplinary action against its members for striking out on a different path. In this respect at least there was a favourable development for the Joint Opposition last week. One of the ways in which the Sirisena faction sought to bring the Joint Opposition to heel was by holding disciplinary inquiries against them so that they can be expelled from the party and eventually removed from their parliamentary seats. A test case in this regard was the disciplinary inquiry that had been started by the SLFP into Puttalam District MP Sanath Nishantha Perera for having criticized the party leader President Maithripala Sirisena. The disciplinary inquiry was headed by one Champani Padmasekera and MP Sanath Nishantha was represented by President’s Counsel Ali Sabry.

The right to dissent

The disciplinary committee did not allow witnesses to be cross examined by Sabry and confined the evidence to affidavits.  When Sanath Nishantha filed action in the District Court against the findings of the disciplinary committee, the court issued an enjoining order on the proceedings of the disciplinary inquiry. If he had been sacked from the SLFP and he lost his seat, that would have placed the entire JO in jeopardy. Now however with the next local government elections coming due, if the election is held, that will destroy the Sirisena faction and take the pressure off the Joint Opposition. In any event, this question of taking disciplinary action for ‘criticizing the leader’ raises some interesting questions. Are the members of a political party not supposed to criticize their leaders? What constitutes acceptable criticism and unacceptable criticism? Furthermore in this instance, there is an acknowledged split in the SLFP with one part of it serving in the government and the other half remaining in the opposition.

The half that is in the opposition routinely votes against the budget presented by the government and even speaks against it in parliament. They routinely oppose decisions made by their other half in government and hold separate political rallies. In such circumstances, how are they not to criticize their leader because their very action of remaining in the opposition constitutes a criticism of their leader who heads this government. Be that as it may, since the strategy of the Sirisena camp hinges on destroying both the UNP and the Joint Opposition, both these latter political parties have an interest in getting rid of him. This is why a yahapalana website has already mooted the possibility of an impeachment motion being filed against Sirisena by the UNP. An incipient coming together of all political forces opposed to Sirisena was seen in the political parties that joined up as intervenient petitioners in the case filed against the gazette notification regarding the delimitation of wards.

The JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake too made it known that they would join up even with people they would not otherwise join with for the purpose of having the local government elections held. The Sirisena group’s willingness to undermine democracy has made the local government election a need even for the JVP which has hitherto been a fellow traveler of the yahapalana camp. The way in which Sirisena benefited and then turned against the UNP and Lanka e News when it suited him, is obviously not lost even on the JVP. The struggle to have the local government elections held has now become the main rallying cry for all political parties other than the Sirisena faction.  Last week, as soon as Prof. G.L. Peiris, the Chairman of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna heard that six petitions had been filed in the Appeal Court asking for a writ against the Gazette regarding the delimitation of wards for the local government elections, he had instructed Manohara de Silva PC to file papers on his behalf as an intervenient against this attempt to get the elections postponed. It was almost immediately established that the petitioners were people linked to Sirisena loyalist SLFP ministers including Dayasiri Jayasekera, Dilan Perera, and Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena. It was revealed that the lawyer appearing for the petitioners was a junior lawyer working for Faizer Mustapha’s father’s law firm. Minister Mustapha has not denied the allegation. The SLFP (Sirisena faction) was also conspicuous by their absence among the intervenient petitioners opposing the request for a writ against the LG delimitation report.

The possibility of the Joint Opposition once again being hoodwinked into contesting under one banner with the SLFP seems remote for many reasons. Firstly the lessons of what happened last time is not lost on the MPs representing the Joint Opposition. Then there is a visceral dislike of Sirisena among the supporters of the Joint Opposition and there is the likelihood that many voters will keep away from voting in the event of a tie up. Thirdly, the Joint Opposition will not be able to claim that they are contesting against the government if a partner in the government is contesting on the same list. Furthermore, the two sides of the SLFP have been drifting apart and now are for all practical purposes two different organizations. Almost all members of the SLFP who decided to take Mahinda Rajapaksa’s side have lost their SLFP organizer positions and other people have been appointed to fill those slots.

Besides, the appeal of the Joint Opposition is because they are the only genuine opposition left in the country. They would not be in a mood to give up this advantage by contesting together with the now irreparably discredited Sirisena faction. Another practical difficulty is that the Joint Opposition has already divided up all the local government wards among themselves in many districts and this process is going on even as this is being written. A tie up with the SLFP is now virtually impossible due to practical reasons because there aren’t enough slots to go around even within the ranks of the JO.

Today’s bonding with Bhagavad-Gita

Monday, 20 November 2017 

We live in times of moral complexity. Whose deed is more pernicious, a burglar raiding the vault or the cop who wipes away the burglar’s fingerprints?

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will appear before the Presidential Commission of Inquiry today.

The Commission, according to a news report, has summoned Attorney General Jayantha Jayasuriya to lead the evidence of the Prime Minster.


“The reason they have summoned me is due to the respect of protocol for the Prime Minister, who is the second citizen of the country. I will be leading the evidence on behalf of the Commission,” the AG has explained.

On an scale of 10 for a ‘Scandal Armageddon’, a phrase borrowed from Dan Rather, the American TV anchor, the bond boondoggle easily earns a good ninth place.

The Watergate Scandal in the United Sates, the Profumo Scandal in the UK and the Spectrum Scandal in India impacted and radically altered the systemic structures of their respective justice systems and media coverage.

In the digital age, transparency in Sri Lanka is yet a demanding enterprise.

The bond business was probed by two parliamentary committees. The first got aborted. The second produced a report with footnotes.

The detailed inquiry by a presidential commission is now at its tail end. The cascading intensity of the affair reaches its climax when the Prime Minister appears before the Commission today.

No matter how his encounter with the Commission turns out, its final outcome will be monumental and transformational as Watergate was in Washington, Profumo in London and Spectrum in New Delhi.

It will have an equal or a more far-reaching influence on our ‘Sri Lankan ‘gemeinschaft’.

The writer seeks the reader’s pardon and tolerance. The use of the German word is no flaunt of punditry. It is only the absence of a precise English equivalent.

The German sociologist Max Weber explains gemeinschaft. It is the form of the social order resulting from “rational agreement by mutual consent”, meaning members of society agree to participate and abide by the given rules, norms and practices because rationality tells them that they benefit by doing so.  Richard Nixon was impeached not because he ordered the burglary in the Watergate building.  He did not even know about it. He faced impeachment for ordering its cover-up.

The relentless Watergate investigation untied the mind of Richard Nixon. The Profumo probe bared the mind of Prime Minster Harold McMillan. The ‘Spectrum’ scandal untangled the turbaned cerebral elegance of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

His predicament is closer to ours. He was compelled to confess why he compromised his demonstrated integrity. He did not remove a corrupt minister. He did not order the investigation warranted. He explained political accommodation of corruption as a ‘coalition dharma’.

The country awaits the Attorney General reconnoitering the mind of Prime Minster Ranil Wickremesinghe. He will , it is hoped, find out why it was necessary to uproot the successful investment banker from his home in Singapore - the  far eastern ‘Shangri-La of speculative capital.

Our Shangri-La opened its business only last Saturday.  A friend informs this writer that the gala event was a fabulous spectacle where the political class was kissed and greeted by their oligarchy counterparts. 

Doubtless, the Attorney General will explore the mind of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on the relative merits and demerits of private placements and auctions.

The tale of the two Arjuns has the complexity and the sublime paradoxes of the original Arjuna-centric philosophical classic the ‘Bhagavad-Gita.

 The Gita offers a central premise. Act decisively. Do not get mired in over- analysis especially when you are knowledgeable. We are usually prone to draw comfort in talking and analysing rather than acting upon knowledge.  “The immature think that knowledge and action are different, but the wise see them as the same.”

P.S: “In my view, far from deserving condemnation for their courageous reporting, the New York Times, the Washington Post and other newspapers should be commended for serving the purpose that the Founding Fathers saw so clearly,” Justice Hugo Black 6-3 Majority opinion of US Supreme Court permitting publication of Pentagon Papers. 

Beware! Here comes the Sri Lankan mafia - EDITORIAL

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time

- Abraham Lincoln

 
2017-11-20

At the rate the interested parties have been propagating the image of a “Moonshine mafia” these days, any outsiders might wonder whether Sri Lanka has become a land of mafias on the lines of Sicilian or American Mafia and may think twice about before visiting the country.   
On the other hand, given the power attributed to this “moonshine mafia” by the concerned parties, which included chance of overturning government policies, the locals here would have wondered whether the Moonshine mafia would run for office at the 2020 polls and given a run for their money for UNP, SLFP and JO candidates.   
Anyone with common sense would have wondered as to whom alcohol industry and its supporters are trying to fool. Surely ours is a nation that knows A,B,C better. The creation of an omnipotent mafia to pre-empt the medical professionals from debunking government logic on beer tax reduction is nothing but a gross insult on the intelligence of the entire Sri Lankan nation.  

By now the fact that the government has made a glaring blunder in its calculations for reducing the beer tax is proven beyond doubt by cabinet ministers, medical professionals, University of Colombo and the well-meaning media. Two Cabinet ministers have already explained that the logic behind the western alcohol tax works in the reverse direction in countries like Sri Lanka. Besides the majority of Cabinet ministers have opposed the beer tax reduction proposal in Cabinet itself.   
While the government insisted that its rationale is based on a study by University of Colombo, the university denied having conducted such research study. It pointed out that though the academic who conducted the research is attached to the university, the said report was part of his private research and not of the university. Moreover it has been found that the academic is yet to complete his research which is his maiden research on alcohol. One wonders what the government ministers who insisted “it’s a University of Colombo study” have got to say now. If that is not enough, the researcher is now on record that his statistics have been misinterpreted, and according to his findings only 4.9 lakhs are into moonshine.   

The fact that the beer industry and its handlers in government were in tandem in their efforts to get the beer tax reduced by hook or by crook was evident by the wide publicity given to the incomplete report by those patronized by the industry. Immediately after the budget speech the interested parties rushed to create a phobia of an all-powerful “Moonshine mafia” by splattering Colombo walls with posters in a bid to forestall an exposure of the poor budget logic by those armed with scientific data.  
The absurdity behind the tax logic however is not limited alcohol. While the Yale University, USA has hailed Sri Lanka’s air quality in its annual World Environmental Performance Index claiming it’s the country with the best air quality in entire South Asia, the government has rushed to slap a carbon tax on the already overburdened tax payer. The vast improvement in air quality in Sri Lanka has been attributed to the 2008 legislation of vehicle emission testing. Carbon tax is a feature of highly industrialized countries and those with high levels of vehicular emissions.  

Aping the West without studying the ground realities has always been a weakness attributed to the Yahapalana government by political analysts. This flaw has already made the government unpopular, especially among the middle class that is livid over its failure to relate to their needs and interests. Right now more and more parents are lining up against the beer tax reduction which is going to tantalize the teens with its new affordability. What the government should realize is at some point or the other, it is going to confront this enraged electorate. Still it is not too late to correct its glaring mistake. 

Devolution & The Increase In The Number Of Local Representatives

By Emil van der Poorten – 19November 2017

It seems like, under the motherhood-and-apple-pie cover of devolution, additional incompetence and corruption is going to be visited upon the people of Sri Lanka.

Political office, inclusive of being appointed as “Organiser” for one political agglomeration or another, has become a highway to accumulation of ill-gotten wealth. Ask anyone in the country, particularly rural folk, what their opinion is of politicians supposedly serving them and you’ll be told that public or political office has simply become a licence to steal.

That, when the foregoing is an acknowledged fact, the Yahapalanaya government is seeking todouble the number of those who have been plundering the public purse is beyond explanation.  At best, it can be interpreted as a simple ploy for those making such decisions to continue their own profligate and crooked ways having bought the support of those in the political tier below them. Given the constant to-and-fro-ing of politicians of every stripe in this country even that is a gamble. A gamble conducted with our money at a time when such essentials as health and education are grossly under-funded even by Third World standards.

 

Let me give you a simple example.

For several years I had kept up a regular stream of complaint to a man reckoned to be among the most senior politicians serving in the preceding government as well as its successor with regard to the fact, that but for the shramadhana (volunteer) efforts of those of us to whom it was truly a lifeline it would have been totally impassable. A couple of years ago he called me to say that I could stop whining and complaining because he had allocated ten million rupees (Rs. 10,000,000) from his own Ministry’s budget to the local Pradeshiya Sabha (PS) to deal with our desperate predicament.  Lo and behold, within a week, the winding paddy field had been transformed into a macademised road!

There is, however, a little twist to this tale, which is why it is appearing under the heading that this article carries.

When I inquired from the contractor how much he’d be paid on completion of the work, he told me that, if it passed the engineers’ close scrutiny, he would receive, at most, 4.8 million rupees, less than half the amount I had been told had been allocated for this work.

I expect that I hardly need the reader to draw his or her own arithmetical conclusions from these facts.

 

The icing on this particular cake was evident to me on a recent trip to the local petrol station where, in typically overstated Sri Lankan fashion, there  was this humungeous signboard proclaiming the appointment, by one of the constituent parties of our national government, of a local individual to carry that party’s flag into the next national election in our constituency.

The hoarding/advertisement, in full colour of course, showed the individual concerned receiving his letter of appointment from the President of Sri Lanka with the earlier-mentioned Cabinet Minister in attendance.

In case the reader has not been joining the dots to the previous part of this narrative, the recipient of the honour bestowed by our President and his senior cabinet minister was…………….guess who? Oh, well, I’ll put you out of your suspense: it was the head of the local body whose arithmetic left something to be desired!

And we want the number of such individuals doubled?

That is simply what this government wants to do in the name of “devolution.”

An individual of very practical bent with a belief in the need for something beyond naked greed in the conduct of government told me the other day that the proposed expansion should be reversed because extending it and expanding it would only serve to worsen an already-unacceptable state of affairs.

Anyone having to deal with the politicians and bureaucracy, one indistinguishable from the other today, will bear witness to the fact that both these tiers are now complicit in the effort to confuse and cheat the public, because the non-delivery of service provides the base from which corrupt practices can be launched more easily. After all, when one is compelled to spend an inordinate amount of time deciphering the small print, it is easy enough for those controlling the public purse to launch their corrupt “initiatives” unnoticed.

What we need is certainly not “more of the same.” 

How about employing the services of systems consultants to examine the status quo and simply recommend how service-delivery can be streamlined and, thereby, serve the public from the ongoing grief that has been its lot for far too long?

This isn’t rocket science and the only drawback as far as the movers-and-shakers are concerned would be that it will impede the wholesale robbery of our national wealth that they are currently engaged in.

Let me give you one simple example of what we encounter on a day-to-day basis.

Our local post office, like pretty much any of the kind in rural Sri Lanka, has facilities to register mail.

Simple? Not so when one examines the practical realities of such an exercise.

The receipts are in a book, with a piece of carbon paper to make a duplicate copy.

Read More

Israel exploits abused woman for propaganda

COGAT found propaganda opportunity in a Palestinian family’s plight.

Maureen Clare Murphy - 17 November 2017 

Israeli propaganda would have you believe that its rule over the West Bank and Gaza Strip is not a belligerent military occupation, but a mechanism by which it is improving Palestinian lives.

And so would, apparently, the European ambassadors frequently seen smiling and shaking hands with the bureaucrats of Israel’s military occupation on social media.

On Thursday, COGAT, the bureaucratic arm of Israel’s military occupation, posted a photo on Facebook said to show a Palestinian woman and her young children, their faces blurred out.

Accompanying the photo were a few paragraphs of text explaining that the woman had asked Israeli police at the Qalandiya military checkpoint (euphemistically called a “crossing” in the COGAT post) for relief from her abusive husband.

COGAT claims in the post that officers pooled money to buy new shoes for the children and gave the family food and a place to rest.

“We felt a duty to help a mother and her children in their distress. This is part of our work,” the post quotes an unnamed policeman as saying.

COGAT claims that the woman “was moved by the help of the Israeli policemen,” and quotes her as telling them: “Thank you very much, I knew that here we would be helped and feel safe.”

Shameless propaganda

It is not the only example of shameless propaganda on COGAT’s social media platforms.

COGAT has produced upbeat videos about the Palestinian olive harvest purporting to show how the body provides coordination so that farmers can access their land – never mind that it is Israel which hinders access in the first place.

COGAT publishes photos of ill Palestinian children, boasting about how it has facilitated their medical treatment in Israeli hospitals or abroad – omitting mention that children in Gaza have died awaiting permission from Israel to access treatment outside the territory.

The exploitation of an apparently abused woman and her children to manicure its image is crude by even Israel’s low standards.

Decades of colonization, displacement and military occupation have undermined and weakened the very foundations of Palestinian society.

Resulting socio-economic instability, “coupled with the loss of many male members of Palestinian society to Israeli detention or violence, has contributed to the stresses of family life and created conditions rife for domestic violence,” according to the Palestinian rights group Al-Haq.

Israel’s occupation has a particular impact on women and girls. It’s among the reasons why ending Zionism is a feminist issue.

“The restrictive measures imposed under occupation have condemned Palestinian women to one of the lowest participation rates and the highest unemployment rates in the world,” according to a recent United Nations report.

“Palestinian women cannot have the same access as men to employment in Israel and settlements, while Israeli barriers to movement and closure policies make it particularly unsafe for women to search for work away from their immediate localities,” the report adds.

“State of fear and horror”

Israel’s occupation threatens Palestinian women’s right to life.

A pregnant Palestinian woman, Maram Salih Hassan Abu Ismail, and her 16-year-old brother, Ibrahim Salih Hassan Taha, were gunned down by Israeli guards at Qalandiya checkpoint last year.

In 2015 a coalition of Palestinian women in Jerusalem called “for the protection of our bodily safety and security” after several women were slain by Israeli soldiers.

They said they live in a “state of fear and horror” as Israel “regularly executes Palestinians in the streets.”

No one should fall for COGAT’s clumsy claims to protect Palestinian women’s safety.

But credit where credit is due. One finds a little more honesty about COGAT’s activities on its Arabic-language page.

In August, it openly threatened the lives of a Palestinian family, including four women and 12 children, living in an apartment building in Gaza.

COGAT said – in contradiction to international law – that the building could be considered a legitimate military target because, it claimed, a tunnel had been built in the vicinity.

Palestinian rights groups Adalah and Al-Mezan said that Israel’s threats against the family and their home and attacks on civilians in general “constitute overt violations of international law.”

The everyday reality of home demolitions, night raids and other rights violations tend not to be highlighted by COGAT on social media.

There is nothing benign about Israel’s military rule over millions of Palestinians – despite COGAT’s efforts to rebrand it otherwise.